carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 12, 2014 12:51:55 GMT
One has to wonder if UKIP, quite understandably, were guilty of leaving more resources in Clacton than was necessary and thus missed the chance of winning here as well. All the fluff was the impossibility of UKIP winning here from press, analysts and members on this site. I think too much attention was given to that conspectus by the party managers and they let it affect the psychology of the campaign and the expectation management. UKIP have done well to ignore expectation management and all form of political correctness; it helps define their approach. This time they tended to act more 'professionally' and it did not help the outcome. |
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Post by froome on Oct 12, 2014 13:01:56 GMT
Except, with respect, it wasn't hindsight. I posted comments on several websites a number of weeks before the day of the by-election precisely this point, that UKIP could divert resources from Clacton to Heywood since they were going to win big in the former according to all the evidence. Farage should have spent polling day in Heywood. I'm not sure where he was, maybe Clacton. It was very obvious from early on that UKIP would gain Clacton with a healthy majority. I can't believe they didn't consider giving more of a push in Heywood & Middleton. Which makes me think the result that they got was exactly the result they hoped for. They didn't want to win, especially with the candidate they had, but hoped to do well enough to keep the bandwagon rolling. |
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Post by Devonian on Oct 12, 2014 13:03:14 GMT
I think UKIP were right not to take even the slightest chances in Clacton. If they had not won it and won it by a big margin then they could have forgotten about Rochester and forgotten about winning any other seats in 2015.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Oct 12, 2014 13:12:56 GMT
Other than Clacton and Rochester, there's the by-election for South Yorkshire PPC coming up too. Or nobody is bothering campaigning for it?
It's a prime target for UKIP and they could be considered the favourite to take it.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 12, 2014 13:18:48 GMT
I think UKIP were right not to take even the slightest chances in Clacton. If they had not won it and won it by a big margin then they could have forgotten about Rochester and forgotten about winning any other seats in 2015. That is why I think that their error was understandable. However a more professional party with enough good canvassers and analysts would have knows that they were home and dry in Clacton. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 12, 2014 14:18:53 GMT
Pretending that Lib/Con/Grn do this to anything like the same extent isn't terribly honest, tbh. But, OK - I agree, UKIP stitch up their candidates to the same extent. Happy now, Bish? C'mon, the Tories have done it a fair bit too down the years. I will mostly exempt your party, yeah, but its only because of your relative irrelevance until recently  One thing that I will admit Labour does suffer from, beneath the surface, is factionalism - and that was certainly in play here. It is widely thought McInnes was the preferred candidate of the pro-Danczuk faction in the local party, which led to many activists opposed to him sitting on their hands (especially since their likely preferred choice didn't even get on to the hastily arranged shortlist) and this gave UKIP something else to exploit..... Of course, both sides were largely united in not wanting Ed and (especially) Harriet's rumoured choice - O'Reilly. Looks like we dodged a bullet there, at least  |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 12, 2014 14:52:15 GMT
Except, with respect, it wasn't hindsight. I posted comments on several websites a number of weeks before the day of the by-election precisely this point, that UKIP could divert resources from Clacton to Heywood since they were going to win big in the former according to all the evidence. Farage should have spent polling day in Heywood. I'm not sure where he was, maybe Clacton. It was very obvious from early on that UKIP would gain Clacton with a healthy majority. I can't believe they didn't consider giving more of a push in Heywood & Middleton. Which makes me think the result that they got was exactly the result they hoped for. They didn't want to win, especially with the candidate they had, but hoped to do well enough to keep the bandwagon rolling. "They didn't want to win....................but hoped to do well enough........." That could not possibly be a sensible strategy under any circumstance at all. Why contest in order NOT to win? Why choose a candidate that you have doubts about and whom you prefer not to see win, especially after seeing his performance elsewhere? All the emails to me suggested a very strong desire to have as big a push as possible in that seat. I suspect that the managers had not realized how close they were and that if they had there might have been more activity diverted in the last 3-days? But, to an extent geography rules those situations. People prepared to be bussed into Clacton from up to 2-hours away just cannot be sensibly diverted to a place that is 4/5-hours away, or more. |
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Post by froome on Oct 12, 2014 15:35:55 GMT
Carlton, dear chap. I'm sure that when the by-election was first called, UKIP didn't think they had any real chance of actually winning here, and thus having a candidate of, what shall we say, the *calibre*  of John Bickley, wasn't a problem. It must have started looking obvious after a while that you would get a better vote than first thought, and at that point, I'm sure someone thought, right we're looking okay in Heywood, let's just concentrate on getting Carswell in in Clacton. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2014 15:41:02 GMT
Pretending that Lib/Con/Grn do this to anything like the same extent isn't terribly honest, tbh. But, OK - I agree, UKIP stitch up their candidates to the same extent. Happy now, Bish? I will mostly exempt your party, yeah, but its only because of your relative irrelevance until recently One thing that I will admit Labour does suffer from, beneath the surface, is factionalism - and that was certainly in play here. It is widely thought McInnes was the preferred candidate of the pro-Danczuk faction in the local party, which led to many activists opposed to him sitting on their hands (especially since their likely preferred choice didn't even get on to the hastily arranged shortlist) and this gave UKIP something else to exploit..... Of course, both sides were largely united in not wanting Ed and (especially) Harriet's rumoured choice - O'Reilly. Looks like we dodged a bullet there, at least We are rubbish at it. Our attempts to be sly are like your parties attempts to talk about immigration. Most tories think of themselves as the officer class above that sort of thing. Tory activists are too loud, pompous and self-satisfied - but not sly in general. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 12, 2014 17:16:53 GMT
Other than Clacton and Rochester, there's the by-election for South Yorkshire PPC coming up too. Or nobody is bothering campaigning for it? I think the issue there is that it's hard to get all that worked up for something as pointless as a police commission by-election. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2014 19:13:22 GMT
A post-election reflection:
Jim Dobbin was one of the kindest, funniest and most hard-working men that I have ever known. An absolute star of a husband and father, I first met him in 1989 and then got to know him better in the early '90s when I moved to Rochdale and worked with his wonderful wife, Pat. Totally committed Socialists whose politics were driven by their faith, they have always been an inspiration to me. Jim's death shook me and I am still coming to terms with it.
Lots of people dismiss Jim as old-fashioned and out of touch - well, this is to mistake passing fashion for deep ideology. I shake my head when I see the race for banality among many politicians of all parties and it didn't suprise me to see UKIP do so well - I am only amused by the idea that it was Lib Dems votes in the constituency who saved Labour. The Lib Dem voters of Heywood switched to Labour in 2011 and 2012, but switched to Independents and UKIP this May (except for those who went back to Peter Rush). My very good contacts in the area point to how well UKIP did among the unhappy voters who have been switching around for sometime since 2010. Much of Middleton has been toying with non-Labour votes for some time and UKIP targeted brilliantly. Bottom line - Jim Dobbin was forthright, ideological and to the point and kept his promises, we need more like him or are Labour really just going to hope to fall panting across the finish line on 35% of the vote, appealing to the lowest common denominator?
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 14, 2014 19:18:40 GMT
A post-election reflection: Jim Dobbin was one of the kindest, funniest and most hard-working men that I have ever known. An absolute star of a husband and father, I first met him in 1989 and then got to know him better in the early '90s when I moved to Rochdale and worked with his wonderful wife, Pat. Totally committed Socialists whose politics were driven by their faith, they have always been an inspiration to me. Jim's death shook me and I am still coming to terms with it. Lots of people dismiss Jim as old-fashioned and out of touch - well, this is to mistake passing fashion for deep ideology. I shake my head when I see the race for banality among many politicians of all parties and it didn't suprise me to see UKIP do so well - I am only amused by the idea that it was Lib Dems votes in the constituency who saved Labour. The Lib Dem voters of Heywood switched to Labour in 2011 and 2012, but switched to Independents and UKIP this May (except for those who went back to Peter Rush). My very good contacts in the area point to how well UKIP did among the unhappy voters who have been switching around for sometime since 2010. Much of Middleton has been toying with non-Labour votes for some time and UKIP targeted brilliantly. Bottom line - Jim Dobbin was forthright, ideological and to the point and kept his promises, we need more like him or are Labour really just going to hope to fall panting across the finish line on 35% of the vote, appealing to the lowest common denominator? Good to see you back - with avatar. |
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Post by justin124 on Oct 15, 2014 12:47:33 GMT
Surely the NEC's failure to adhere to its own rules - re - the 'longlisting' stage - render it vulnerable to legal action by those excluded?!
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 15, 2014 13:00:20 GMT
Surely the NEC's failure to adhere to its own rules - re - the 'longlisting' stage - render it vulnerable to legal action by those excluded?! Legal action!? By a loyal member of the party against the party? They would thus prove themselves to be correctly excluded. |
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Post by justin124 on Oct 15, 2014 14:37:47 GMT
Surely the NEC's failure to adhere to its own rules - re - the 'longlisting' stage - render it vulnerable to legal action by those excluded?! Legal action!? By a loyal member of the party against the party? They would thus prove themselves to be correctly excluded. There is precedent for this. Back in the mid-1990s someone took the party to the courts over All Woman Shortlists - and won! |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 15, 2014 14:46:38 GMT
Legal action!? By a loyal member of the party against the party? They would thus prove themselves to be correctly excluded. There is precedent for this. Back in the mid-1990s someone took the party to the courts over All Woman Shotlists - and won! I am very attracted to the concept of 'All Women Shot Lists' and wonder if any party would embrace it? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 15, 2014 15:31:25 GMT
Legal action!? By a loyal member of the party against the party? They would thus prove themselves to be correctly excluded. There is precedent for this. Back in the mid-1990s someone took the party to the courts over All Woman Shotlists - and won! Two men, actually. Case was Jepson and Dyas-Elliott v the Labour Party and others [1996] IRLR 166. There have been other attempts to bring the courts into candidate selection disputes, which have generally been resisted on jurisdictional grounds. Here's one such case: www.bailii.org/uk/cases/UKEAT/1999/1299_98_1407.html |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 15, 2014 21:25:49 GMT
And Dyas-Elliott was from Bassetlaw, so if UKIP are still looking for a candidate.......
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Oct 16, 2014 4:56:44 GMT
And Dyas-Elliott was from Bassetlaw, so if UKIP are still looking for a candidate....... He tried to apply to be a Labour candidate in local elections in 2012, but was rejected. He sent a dead bird by mail to Councillor Joanna White (the wife of John Mann) because she was sitting on the committee who rejected him. Restraining order after dead bird sent in post |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Oct 16, 2014 9:36:15 GMT
And Dyas-Elliott was from Bassetlaw, so if UKIP are still looking for a candidate....... He tried to apply to be a Labour candidate in local elections in 2012, but was rejected. He sent a dead bird by mail to Councillor Joanna White (the wife of John Mann) because she was sitting on the committee who rejected him. Restraining order after dead bird sent in postHe should fit in quite well in UKIP. |
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of John Bickley, wasn't a problem. It must have started looking obvious after a while that you would get a better vote than first thought, and at that point, I'm sure someone thought, right we're looking okay in Heywood, let's just concentrate on getting Carswell in in Clacton. 
