neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Oct 10, 2014 17:18:35 GMT
Labour activists who are personal friends told me it was close, and at one point thought they'd lost. I was in the constituency yesterday (I'm in Bury going to something called 'Light Night' today) and it was obvious that it was really very close- to the point where I put a bet on a UKIP win. Had Clacton been last week, UKIP would have won here.
|
|
Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873 
|
Post by Pimpernal on Oct 10, 2014 18:19:33 GMT
Post removed for violating forum rules. pfft |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2014 18:28:28 GMT
Disappointing more Con voters didn't go ukip here. Would have been funny. I expect too many were taken in by the Tory lie (repeated ad nauseum on the telly) that a vote for UKIP is a vote for Miliband. Several thousand fine people will wake up and find their vote for the Tory rather than John Bickley was the only way the truly dire Labour candidate was able to win. And many of them will assuredly be dismayed at losing the opportunity to kick Labour out of that part of Lancashire. If it makes you feel better that nonsense is true on a national scale and as ukip will undoubtedly cost us seats its only rational the reverse will happen. Farage is spinning the exact same story so not for the first time you are displaying a near Liz McInnes level of one eyedness and blinkeredness. If the last couple of days and ukip in general have taught us anything its that being relentlessly on message is boring, disingenuous and not courageous. Fwiw I thought your candidate was equally poor and don't even know who the tory was. Would have gone ukip as essentially I am anti labour voter before I am a tory. Voted LD in may for same reason. |
|
johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,559
Member is Online
|
Post by johnloony on Oct 11, 2014 1:43:45 GMT
The joker in the pack- what will happen if we see a seat with a strong Green presence and a strong UKIP presence? Does anyone know of one? There's already been a by-election in Norwich North, which sort-of fits. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
|
Post by The Bishop on Oct 11, 2014 10:13:44 GMT
Labour activists who are personal friends told me it was close, and at one point thought they'd lost. I was in the constituency yesterday (I'm in Bury going to something called 'Light Night' today) and it was obvious that it was really very close- to the point where I put a bet on a UKIP win. Had Clacton been last week, UKIP would have won here. Activists often tend towards pessimism, or at least polling day jitters, though. Despite my normally relatively optimistic demeanour, I was genuinely jumpy about the outcome in my seat at the last GE - your mind is always racing though "worst case scenarios"...... The fact is that senior Labour "sources" briefed the local and national media in the days before this election that they were expecting to win pretty comfortably - they don't do that unless they are fairly confident it will happen. The bookies odds on polling day - Labour 40 to 1 ON! - reflected this too. Something happened. |
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Oct 11, 2014 10:38:13 GMT
What happened was that HQ didn't believe what they were being told. I know that doorstep responses were being passed up the food chain- perhaps the Labour candidate's comment about race was designed to respond to that (but, like Gordon-Walker's eve of poll leaflet, came too late).
Comfortable Labour hold next time though.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
|
Post by The Bishop on Oct 11, 2014 11:55:09 GMT
I expect too many were taken in by the Tory lie (repeated ad nauseum on the telly) that a vote for UKIP is a vote for Miliband. Several thousand fine people will wake up and find their vote for the Tory rather than John Bickley was the only way the truly dire Labour candidate was able to win. And many of them will assuredly be dismayed at losing the opportunity to kick Labour out of that part of Lancashire. If it makes you feel better that nonsense is true on a national scale and as ukip will undoubtedly cost us seats its only rational the reverse will happen. Farage is spinning the exact same story so not for the first time you are displaying a near Liz McInnes level of one eyedness and blinkeredness. If the last couple of days and ukip in general have taught us anything its that being relentlessly on message is boring, disingenuous and not courageous. Fwiw I thought your candidate was equally poor and don't even know who the tory was. Would have gone ukip as essentially I am anti labour voter before I am a tory. Voted LD in may for same reason. Well yes, having Bickley as 50% of the UKIP parliamentary party would have been "interesting" - the contrast with Carswell could hardly be greater  Your candidate was apparently rather unimpressive, too - though I hesitate to say more as stuart of this parish may well know him  Ironically it was, at least according to some accounts, the LibDem who made the best personal impression (which might well explain the scraped deposit) |
|
carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,907
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Oct 11, 2014 15:57:47 GMT
Odd that such a high profile by-election in the febrile pre-GE atmosphere prompted such a poor slate of candidates? The Labour Party defending a seat with a good but not heavy majority put up candidate of such demonstrable vacuity and gormlessness as to be a rather obvious embarrassment whenever she opens her mouth. When we know the large numbers who wish to become MPs how on earth could she have been chosen? The Conservative was also very definitely of the third rank (or lower?). Why are the parties doing this? The Conservative at Clacton was pretty poor as well. Is this a nuanced response to a perceived UKIP strong challenge? On basis of you tend to put up rather ordinary people and in these circumstances so will we?
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Oct 11, 2014 16:18:15 GMT
I assume (I don't know) that there were some union shenanigans around Labour's selection.
|
|
andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
Member is Online
|
Post by andrea on Oct 11, 2014 17:29:55 GMT
I assume (I don't know) that there were some union shenanigans around Labour's selection. Harriet wanted Miriam O'Reilly. The Unions had the TULO chairman on the shortlist, but he was from Basildon...which is a bit too far from Heywood. The Left was pushing for the BAME doctor. McInnes was supported by the Danczucks as the "stop O'Reilly" candidate (witness the recent twitter spat between MOR and Danczuck's wife) but that's only after the shortlist was revealed and their prefered choices were excluded by the NEC panel. No-one shortlisted was local but McInnes was the less unlocal (she's from Rossendale). |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2014 17:42:41 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by No Offence Alan on Oct 11, 2014 17:47:57 GMT
Odd that such a high profile by-election in the febrile pre-GE atmosphere prompted such a poor slate of candidates? The Labour Party defending a seat with a good but not heavy majority put up candidate of such demonstrable vacuity and gormlessness as to be a rather obvious embarrassment whenever she opens her mouth. When we know the large numbers who wish to become MPs how on earth could she have been chosen? The Conservative was also very definitely of the third rank (or lower?). Why are the parties doing this? The Conservative at Clacton was pretty poor as well. Is this a nuanced response to a perceived UKIP strong challenge? On basis of you tend to put up rather ordinary people and in these circumstances so will we? When Labour call the election at such short notice (and we can see why - any later and the Clacton bandwagon might have seen UKIP win), there really isn't much time for a deliberative candidate selection process. You just have to go with whoever's available. And presumably with the general election so close now, the "better" candidates will already be selected somewhere else. |
|
Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
|
Post by Richard Allen on Oct 11, 2014 18:50:44 GMT
One has to wonder if UKIP, quite understandably, were guilty of leaving more resources in Clacton than was necessary and thus missed the chance of winning here as well.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2014 20:19:41 GMT
One has to wonder if UKIP, quite understandably, were guilty of leaving more resources in Clacton than was necessary and thus missed the chance of winning here as well. An half hour visit by Farage timed to get in the local press just before the vote could have swung it.  |
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,786
Member is Online
|
Post by john07 on Oct 11, 2014 22:30:57 GMT
One has to wonder if UKIP, quite understandably, were guilty of leaving more resources in Clacton than was necessary and thus missed the chance of winning here as well. An half hour visit by Farage timed to get in the local press just before the vote could have swung it. Hindsight is wonderful. |
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Oct 12, 2014 8:23:02 GMT
An half hour visit by Farage timed to get in the local press just before the vote could have swung it. Hindsight is wonderful. Except, with respect, it wasn't hindsight. I posted comments on several websites a number of weeks before the day of the by-election precisely this point, that UKIP could divert resources from Clacton to Heywood since they were going to win big in the former according to all the evidence. Farage should have spent polling day in Heywood. I'm not sure where he was, maybe Clacton. |
|
mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,714
|
Post by mboy on Oct 12, 2014 10:22:42 GMT
Fascinating, disgraceful, and typical, in equal measure. This happens all the time at General Elections, when there is too much going on for any scrutiny until after the event; but for it to happen at such a high profile by-election is astonishing. You've got to wonder if Labour will ever learn from these debacles... |
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 12, 2014 10:23:22 GMT
Yes, mostly hanging around Jaywick from what I heard.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
|
Post by The Bishop on Oct 12, 2014 11:05:28 GMT
Fascinating, disgraceful, and typical, in equal measure. This happens all the time at General Elections, when there is too much going on for any scrutiny until after the event; but for it to happen at such a high profile by-election is astonishing. You've got to wonder if Labour will ever learn from these debacles... Pretending that only Labour gets up to this sort of stuff isn't terribly honest, tbh. |
|
mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,714
|
Post by mboy on Oct 12, 2014 11:38:48 GMT
Pretending that Lib/Con/Grn do this to anything like the same extent isn't terribly honest, tbh. But, OK - I agree, UKIP stitch up their candidates to the same extent. Happy now, Bish?
|
|
