Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2014 0:01:24 GMT
Wonder how many lost deposits...
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
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Post by andrea on Oct 10, 2014 0:01:40 GMT
The thing is that Labour didn't seem to expect such a close result. Even 1 hour ago their briefing seemed to suggest a more comfortable even if disappointing win.
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 10, 2014 0:01:59 GMT
An official recount confirmed now!
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 10, 2014 0:03:29 GMT
Its also been said that its a bundle check.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,784
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Post by right on Oct 10, 2014 0:05:38 GMT
Have Labour increased their share from 2010? It's probably possible, but is that realistic as all the other votes would have been decimated?
2010 Labour had 40.1%
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 10, 2014 0:06:27 GMT
Most of the media focus has been on Clacton as that being the seat likely to provide the first UKIP MP elected at the ballot box. Would be ironic if it turned out to be at Heywood & Middleton instead!
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 10, 2014 0:10:29 GMT
Apparently 620 votes in it.
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Post by bigsharon on Oct 10, 2014 0:11:29 GMT
The fruitcakes know this can't be overturned in a recount. They just want the media to have to say "after a recount" in the coverage in order to make it look more dramatic.
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 10, 2014 0:12:36 GMT
Full recount confirmed on BBC
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2014 0:13:08 GMT
Its also been said that its a bundle check. It's a full recount, according to the Beeb. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 10, 2014 0:14:08 GMT
Kippers obviously want Labour to sweat it out for a few more hours.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,784
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Post by right on Oct 10, 2014 0:16:04 GMT
The fruitcakes know this can't be overturned in a recount. They just want the media to have to say "after a recount" in the coverage in order to make it look more dramatic. The returning officer can refuse if they think that's the motivation. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 10, 2014 0:16:29 GMT
Its also been said that its a bundle check. That's certainly what it looks like on the TV pictures, and 620 votes, which is what the UKIP Agent says they're trailing by, is outside the normal range for a recount, do maybe the Acting Returning Officer erring on the side of over-cautiousness? Incidentally on turnout, UKIP were surprised by how low it was; earlier tonight they were apparently expecting 43-45%. I'd also suggest, even though it may belong in the other thread, that Clacton turnout is less than spectacular for Carswell. |
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 10, 2014 0:16:48 GMT
Never get too fazed about by elections. 36% turnouts and not electing a Government.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 10, 2014 0:17:55 GMT
In a general election a recount is usual if the margin is less than 1,000 votes but I guess it's normally just a bundle recount. A full recount is less than 500.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,784
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Post by right on Oct 10, 2014 0:19:51 GMT
79,636 electorate in 2010. 36% turnout on these outdated figures would be 28,669.
620 votes is 2%
If Labour increased their share of the vote from 40% in 2010 then UKIP and Labour would be combined over 80%. Which means as Sharon says, the depsoits are going to be falling like ninepins.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 10, 2014 0:20:55 GMT
Labour must be hoping a few bundles haven't accidentally been placed in the wrong basket. It happened in Dudley North in 2010. A few thousand Tory votes were initially placed in the UKIP basket.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,784
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Post by right on Oct 10, 2014 0:21:03 GMT
Its also been said that its a bundle check. That's certainly what it looks like on the TV pictures, and 620 votes, which is what the UKIP Agent says they're trailing by, is outside the normal range for a recount, do maybe the Acting Returning Officer erring on the side of over-cautiousness? Incidentally on turnout, UKIP were surprised by how low it was; earlier tonight they were apparently expecting 43-45%. I'd also suggest, even though it may belong in the other thread, that Clacton turnout is less than spectacular for Carswell. Clacton is the lowest fall in turnout from the General Election for any post 2010 by-election. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 10, 2014 0:21:37 GMT
79,636 electorate in 2010. 36% turnout on these outdated figures would be 28,669. There were 28,519 votes cast (the 'on the day' electorate is 79,170). |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 10, 2014 0:22:03 GMT
Confirmed as a full recount, but as per Conor Pope on LabourList: Here’s what I’ve been told a UKIP organiser said was the reason: “Doubt we’ll catch up but worth a try and prolong the embarrassment.”
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