andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
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Post by andrea on Oct 9, 2014 23:18:33 GMT
Helen Pidd from the count saying Labour people not looking very happy at all But Guardian live blogging days Lab sources believe they have won. Not mutually exclusive. A close result in a safe seat this close to an election is enough reason to feel glum. Going in with an assumed majority of 5,000 and coming out with one of 3,000 is far, far worse than going in with 1,000 and coming out with 3,000. Yes, I agree. They are now claiming Lab share is up compared to 2010. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,784
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 23:21:21 GMT
Not mutually exclusive. A close result in a safe seat this close to an election is enough reason to feel glum. Going in with an assumed majority of 5,000 and coming out with one of 3,000 is far, far worse than going in with 1,000 and coming out with 3,000. Yes, I agree. They are now claiming Lab share is up compared to 2010. That's OK then, they're up on their second worst national result since 1918. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 9, 2014 23:30:22 GMT
That's quite a drop, but not surprising - trying to get the vote out on a chilly autumn evening is not fun! Yes, but there was a (albeit remote) chance that Labour could lose. This close to the election they should be well motivated. I disagree; there was never a feeling on the ground that Labour could lose, even UKIP's campaign was slightly half-hearted compared to Clacton and what I imagine we'll see in Rochester and Strood, and the proximity to a General Election doesn't register with average voters; generally they care nothing about sending messages to satisfy the appetites of the political elite, only about electing a government which (obviously) they can only do at a General Election. One other aside which may be relevant, a Labour organiser who has been up to Heywood told me that Jim Dobbin bequeathed a non-existant campaign infrastructure, with very low voter ID, and so this campaign basically had to start from scratch whilst losing key paid workers to Scotland. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,784
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 23:36:50 GMT
Yes, but there was a (albeit remote) chance that Labour could lose. This close to the election they should be well motivated. the proximity to a General Election doesn't register with average voters; generally they care nothing about sending messages to satisfy the appetites of the political elite, only about electing a government which (obviously) they can only do at a General Election. Edited the comment. Even if the average voter doesn't care when the election is but voters should be getting fired up about politics six months away from the election. Core voter apathy is fine in peacetime, but hostilities have started. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 9, 2014 23:40:34 GMT
Well, no. Most ordinary people only get 'fired up' when the campaign starts. Do you not spend any time with normals?
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 9, 2014 23:41:11 GMT
the proximity to a General Election doesn't register with average voters; generally they care nothing about sending messages to satisfy the appetites of the political elite, only about electing a government which (obviously) they can only do at a General Election. Edited the comment. Even if the average voter doesn't care when the election is but voters should be getting fired up about politics six months away from the election. Core voter apathy is fine in peacetime, but hostilities have started. Perhaps they should be, but they never are! Getting them fired up a week before an election is an achievement, particularly given the current all-round disengagement with Party politics. Incidentally Farage has just conceded H&M on Sky News. (Apologies if someone posted this whilst I was typing). |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
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Post by andrea on Oct 9, 2014 23:41:48 GMT
Jon Craig (Sky) suggesting something like Lab 42 UKIP 35
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 9, 2014 23:45:25 GMT
Conceding on behalf of his candidate again? Bit odd. Looks like a fairly unimpressive hold, which will probably come as a shock to no one.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2014 23:45:31 GMT
Edited the comment. Even if the average voter doesn't care when the election is but voters should be getting fired up about politics six months away from the election. Core voter apathy is fine in peacetime, but hostilities have started. Perhaps they should be, but they never are! Getting them fired up a week before an election is an achievement, particularly given the current all-round disengagement with Party politics. Incidentally Farage has just conceded H&M on Sky News. (Apologies if someone posted this whilst I was typing). Trying to get non-political people fired up about an election is difficult, even on polling day! That's my own personal experience. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 9, 2014 23:45:33 GMT
Backgrounder:
Electorate is 79,170.
Verified votes were 28,519.
Returning officer is Paul Lee (High Sheriff of Greater Manchester).
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2014 23:48:36 GMT
Labour majority could be under 1000 votes, not a good night for Labour either and Ed must be wishing he used notes at the Labour conference.
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
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Post by andrea on Oct 9, 2014 23:49:47 GMT
Jon Craig (Sky) suggesting something like Lab 42 UKIP 35 Now saying less than 1,000 votes in between Lab and UKIP. |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on Oct 9, 2014 23:53:00 GMT
That's quite a drop, but not surprising - trying to get the vote out on a chilly autumn evening is not fun! And it has been chilly here today! I had to pop to Radcliffe earlier and went back for a jumper to put beneath my jacket. |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
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Post by andrea on Oct 9, 2014 23:56:46 GMT
UKIP asking for recount.
Recount granted
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,784
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 23:57:16 GMT
Jon Craig (Sky) suggesting something like Lab 42 UKIP 35 Now saying less than 1,000 votes in between Lab and UKIP. Would a three figure majority be a crisis for Miliband? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2014 23:58:33 GMT
Now saying less than 1,000 votes in between Lab and UKIP. Would a three figure majority be a crisis for Miliband? In a heartland I would say YES. |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
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Post by andrea on Oct 9, 2014 23:58:33 GMT
Less than 500 votes difference
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,436
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Post by iain on Oct 9, 2014 23:59:28 GMT
Paul Nuttall says 620 votes
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,784
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 23:59:58 GMT
UKIP asking for recount. Recount granted Nuttal saying 620 votes in it. There's no way that can be overturned on recount, but still it's a fantastic result for UKIP. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2014 0:00:58 GMT
UKIP asking for recount. Recount granted Bloody hell. Labour have been far too casual up there. For one, laughing at us losing Clacton will look a bit hollow when their majority is down 95% in a by election in opposition. |
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