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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2014 22:21:31 GMT
It is looking like the result will be very close and some glum Labour faces on the telly.
When was the last time an opposition party lost a by election seat?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2014 22:22:10 GMT
Sky saying the result will be 12.30. Toby Perkins (Lab) saying "close, but confident" Paul Nuttall (UKIP) claiming best UKIP result but that they've lost Labour blaming Tory vote collapse Paul hasn't conceded defeat just yet. |
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right
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 22:28:24 GMT
Sky saying the result will be 12.30. Toby Perkins (Lab) saying "close, but confident" Paul Nuttall (UKIP) claiming best UKIP result but that they've lost Labour blaming Tory vote collapse Paul hasn't conceded defeat just yet. Yeah, I read too much into his expectations management. |
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right
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 22:28:57 GMT
It is looking like the result will be very close and some glum Labour faces on the telly. When was the last time an opposition party lost a by election seat? George Galloway, Bradford. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 9, 2014 22:30:31 GMT
2,000 votes would be about 5%. Both polls showed a 19% Labour lead, so a bit of a question mark over their polling unless there was a late swing.
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 9, 2014 22:37:20 GMT
Guess the turnout might be nearer a third than the half 5% would suggest?
That would make the polling harder, but you're still correct.
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right
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 22:37:25 GMT
2,000 votes would be about 5%. Both polls showed a 19% Labour lead, so a bit of a question mark over their polling unless there was a late swing. Quiet Kippers? People saying Labour and voting UKIP, like 1992 for Major. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 9, 2014 22:39:33 GMT
Peter Kellner must have received some information he believes to be reliable in order to make that forecast, although I can't think what it might have been this early in the count.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 9, 2014 22:42:28 GMT
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Oct 9, 2014 22:43:26 GMT
36.02% turnout
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right
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 22:47:22 GMT
Peter Kellner must have received some information he believes to be reliable in order to make that forecast, although I can't think what it might have been this early in the count. If Labour knows which boxes to target (UKIP won't as this is their first serious count) then they will be clear on what's happening to the Labour vote and the Tory\Lib Dem vote and have a good idea on the UKIP vote. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 9, 2014 22:53:35 GMT
" joe_Oliver UKIP campaign manager says 'I'll be surprised but not amazed if we win. We're enjoying ourselves, Labour are terrified' #HeywoodAndMiddleton" mobile.twitter.com/joe_oliver |
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right
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 22:55:21 GMT
" joe_Oliver UKIP campaign manager says 'I'll be surprised but not amazed if we win. We're enjoying ourselves, Labour are terrified' #HeywoodAndMiddleton" mobile.twitter.com/joe_oliverSomeone didn't get the memo about expectations management. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2014 23:06:11 GMT
What was the turnout in 2010? |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2014 23:06:45 GMT
What was the turnout in 2010? down from 57.5% in 2010 |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2014 23:09:41 GMT
What was the turnout in 2010? down from 57.5% in 2010 That's quite a drop, but not surprising - trying to get the vote out on a chilly autumn evening is not fun! |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Oct 9, 2014 23:10:10 GMT
Helen Pidd from the count saying Labour people not looking very happy at all
But Guardian live blogging days Lab sources believe they have won.
"real tension" according to SKY. Turnout lower than what Lab was expecting
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right
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 23:12:18 GMT
That's quite a drop, but not surprising - trying to get the vote out on a chilly autumn evening is not fun! Yes, but there was a (albeit remote) chance that Labour could lose. This close to the election they should be well motivated. |
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right
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 23:15:14 GMT
Helen Pidd from the count saying Labour people not looking very happy at all But Guardian live blogging days Lab sources believe they have won. Not mutually exclusive. A close result in a safe seat this close to an election is enough reason to feel glum. Going in with an assumed majority of 5,000 and coming out with one of 3,000 is far, far worse than going in with 1,000 and coming out with 3,000. |
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right
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Post by right on Oct 9, 2014 23:18:21 GMT
Faisal Islam on Sky saying Labour claiming victory.
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