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Post by No Offence Alan on Aug 31, 2014 8:29:46 GMT
It would be perhaps more exciting for us anoraks if nobody had invented the idea of opinion polls or voting intention polls. It would be more dramatic if a huge swing in a by-election came as a big shock or surprise, without prior warning. One example would be the Newbury by-election in 1993, which the Lib Dems won by a margin of 22,000 (which I, for one, had not foreseen at all). Dunfermline 2006 was an even more recent shock. |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 31, 2014 8:47:15 GMT
It would be perhaps more exciting for us anoraks if nobody had invented the idea of opinion polls or voting intention polls. It would be more dramatic if a huge swing in a by-election came as a big shock or surprise, without prior warning. One example would be the Newbury by-election in 1993, which the Lib Dems won by a margin of 22,000 (which I, for one, had not foreseen at all). A by-election which featured, apart from the "official" Conservative candidate, a "conservative candidate" , a "conservative rebel" , The Anti federalist league, the Referendum party, and a "Maastricht Referendum candidate for Britain" candidate. Plus Screaming Lord Sutch, Lindi St Clair, a Social Democrat and a Communist. And the Natural Law party, the "Commoners party"etc, etc. Old Uncle Tom Cobbley was unavailable due to a previous commitment. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Aug 31, 2014 9:00:38 GMT
It would be perhaps more exciting for us anoraks if nobody had invented the idea of opinion polls or voting intention polls. It would be more dramatic if a huge swing in a by-election came as a big shock or surprise, without prior warning. One example would be the Newbury by-election in 1993, which the Lib Dems won by a margin of 22,000 (which I, for one, had not foreseen at all). I think opinion polls may already have been invented by 1993, John. In fact, I took my last ever opinion poll in September 1992.  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2014 10:55:10 GMT
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 31, 2014 11:02:14 GMT
Thanks for that Dok. If Jerry Hayes and that poisonous little cunt Paris are on his case then I am 100% behind Carswell. |
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Post by Devonian on Aug 31, 2014 11:21:46 GMT
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Post by Ben Walker on Aug 31, 2014 11:23:38 GMT
"... DECENT CONSERVATIVES AND THOSE WHO BELIEVE IN SOCIAL DEMOCRACY ..."Um, isn't that kind of an oxymoron? Conservatives vs Social Democrats?
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Post by No Offence Alan on Aug 31, 2014 11:27:23 GMT
"... DECENT CONSERVATIVES AND THOSE WHO BELIEVE IN SOCIAL DEMOCRACY ..."Um, isn't that kind of an oxymoron? Conservatives vs Social Democrats? No, they both believe that the actual "system" of government doesn't matter, so long as the "right" people are in charge of it. |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 31, 2014 11:40:43 GMT
Leaving aside Hayes talk of social democracy the problem many of us on the right have is that Cameron has led a government that we find so unappealing that talk about letting Ed Miliband into No10 just doesn't move us. Yes we might on the whole prefer a Cameron government to a Miliband one but the difference just isn't enough to make us care. |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Clacton
Aug 31, 2014 11:55:49 GMT
via mobile
Post by neilm on Aug 31, 2014 11:55:49 GMT
It's worth pointing out here that in some countries, mainly with Iberian heritage, the social democrats are the right of centre party. Barroso, for example, formerly headed the Portuguese Social Democrats and the Brazilian PSDB is on the moderate right. The Gibraltar Social Democrats are now avowedly left wing sadly.
Quite what Jerry Hayes means by social democrat is anyone's guess though. Perhaps he thinks it's 1992 and David Owen has just endorsed John Major.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Clacton
Aug 31, 2014 11:57:16 GMT
via mobile
Post by neilm on Aug 31, 2014 11:57:16 GMT
Leaving aside Hayes talk of social democracy the problem many of us on the right have is that Cameron has led a government that we find so unappealing that talk about letting Ed Miliband into No10 just doesn't move us. Yes we might on the whole prefer a Cameron government to a Miliband one but the difference just isn't enough to make us care. Well quite. Next thing you know someone will trot out 'a Liberal vote is a wasted vote.' |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 31, 2014 12:22:07 GMT
Leaving aside Hayes talk of social democracy the problem many of us on the right have is that Cameron has led a government that we find so unappealing that talk about letting Ed Miliband into No10 just doesn't move us. Yes we might on the whole prefer a Cameron government to a Miliband one but the difference just isn't enough to make us care. Well quite. Next thing you know someone will trot out 'a Liberal vote is a wasted vote.' David Steel even used the phrase in his speech to Liberal conference in 1978: www.britishpoliticalspeech.org/speech-archive.htm?speech=39 |
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seanf
Non-Aligned
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Post by seanf on Aug 31, 2014 12:51:18 GMT
Take a look at Hayes' previous blog post, about Clacton's inhabitants.
He belongs to the school of political thought that if you insult people, they'll vote for you.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 31, 2014 13:08:35 GMT
Take a look at Hayes' previous blog post, about Clacton's inhabitants. He belongs to the school of political thought that if you insult people, they'll vote for you. I did. Astonishing. I would think the UKIP campaign team are having it printed up even as we speak... |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,014
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 31, 2014 13:47:16 GMT
Leaving aside Hayes talk of social democracy the problem many of us on the right have is that Cameron has led a government that we find so unappealing that talk about letting Ed Miliband into No10 just doesn't move us. Yes we might on the whole prefer a Cameron government to a Miliband one but the difference just isn't enough to make us care. Hayes is quite right about so called 'libertarians' though. Carswell was a member of the Cornerstone group along with other self styled 'libertarians'. If they really were libertarians they wouldn't touch that group with a barge pole. In fact I think the vast majority of UKIP MEPs would be members of that grouping if they were in the Tories. |
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873
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Post by Pimpernal on Aug 31, 2014 14:10:08 GMT
Leaving aside Hayes talk of social democracy the problem many of us on the right have is that Cameron has led a government that we find so unappealing that talk about letting Ed Miliband into No10 just doesn't move us. Yes we might on the whole prefer a Cameron government to a Miliband one but the difference just isn't enough to make us care. And ditto - albeit from an, erm, slightly different perspective... |
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Post by Tangent on Aug 31, 2014 15:49:35 GMT
From Labour's perspective, treating the seat as a no-hoper might be easier, but they have, I would argue, a stronger potential base than in Clacton, and their potential voters here are similar to voters in places like Great Yarmouth and Waveney who need to be won over. Labour would be wise to work out how to attempt to shift the agenda over to them locally, and, at least, protect their vote in Clacton proper from squeezing. I can tell you something of interest from Labour's May results in Yarmouth. First it's important to know that Ukip barely campaigned at all in many of the 10 wards they won, concentrating on what they thought were the one or two winnables. Both the Tories and Labour said that they had failed to detect any Ukip campaigning at all in at least four wards taken by Ukip - in fact the gripe common to both parties was that the BBC and other media were almost campaigning on Ukip's behalf, the message from the doorsteps being that the long slew of anti-Ukip stories were clearly backfiring. I was of the same view - what offends sensitive liberal minds does not necessarily offend working-class voters. In three wards only did Labour increase its vote. One was that of the council leader, who has a large personal following and could put bodies on the ground - he held. The other was fought by Tony Wright, the former Yarmouth MP, who likewise has a personal following and could put bodies on the ground. He lost to Ukip. The most interesting was the Southtown and Cobholm ward, which is thoroughly working-class and known to be a hotbed of Ukip support. A Labour first-timer attempted to hold the ward, which had certainly been neglected by complacent Labour councillors, campaigning with barely any local party support at all. She fought an aggressive leftish "re-connect" campaign, the only example in Yarmouth, and persuaded many would-be Ukip voters back to Labour. She increased the Labour vote markedly, but still lost to Ukip by a dead 50. Even the Ukip victor admitted that the simultaneous Euros had won him the ward, and he thought the Labour candidate had found the key to beating Ukip. Ukippers will be pleased that Yarmouth Labour has and intends to virtually ignore the lesson of Southtown and Cobholm, and that PPC Lara Norris, despite early promise, is looking more and more like the sort of Labour operative who turns voters to Ukip. I think that is the sort of thing where both main parties, in different ways, are failing to respond to UKIP sensibly. Getting leaders and frontbenchers to spout the kind of lines they think potential UKIP voters want to hear does not, seem to me, to be the best way - the voters don't believe you, and you upset your own core. What seems to work better a proper local campaigns, which at least demonstrate the party is listening. |
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Post by Tangent on Aug 31, 2014 15:55:07 GMT
I've got no special knowledge, but it wouldn't surprise me if Tendring First took a crack at it. Might not necessarily be Terry Allen though. For some reason, I keep finding myself calling him Tony.... They could always recruit Roger Lord. |
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by johnr on Aug 31, 2014 15:58:34 GMT
The Patriotic Socialist Party have selected Dave Osborn to fight Clacton, according to their facebook page.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2014 16:04:41 GMT
The Patriotic Socialist Party have selected Dave Osborn to fight Clacton, according to their facebook page. Of course we wish him well. /to get double figures /to get at least 1% |
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