Clacton

[Devonian]

Aug 30, 2014 21:04:42 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Survation (commissioned by the Mail on Sunday) has done a constituency poll in Clacton, and it's gone on their front page tomorrow. Findings are:

I know its Survation and they are they tend to score UKIP higher than other pollsters but even so Devonian likes this.

[neilm]

Does it what the sample size was or provide any background?

[Andrew_S]

I hope Cameron had two or three strong whiskies before being informed of the results of this poll.

[neilm]

He was always bound to get a high percentage in the 'hero or traitor' category, I wonder if that was the second question after party identification.

[Ben Walker]

700 sample size, 200 more than the usual for constituencies?

Tabs here: t.co/NyznaUzB8I

[Ben Walker]

Interesting point of note: a number of voters surveyed said they had voted UKIP in 2010.
And yet there was no UKIP candidate in 2010...?

[neilm]

I can't open it on my phone, how many said that? Less than, say, 15 could be people who've moved in

[Richard Allen]

Pretty obvious that a poll taken just after Carswell's defection would show UKIP doing very well. I fully expect him to win but I doubt he will get quite such a big win as that poll is suggesting.

[Andrew_S]

Aug 30, 2014 23:19:24 GMT Ben Walker said:

Interesting point of note: a number of voters surveyed said they had voted UKIP in 2010.
And yet there was no UKIP candidate in 2010...?

False recall is the bane of pollsters.

[Andrew_S]

Aug 30, 2014 23:23:00 GMT Richard Allen said:

Pretty obvious that a poll taken just after Carswell's defection would show UKIP doing very well. I fully expect him to win but I doubt he will get quite such a big win as that poll is suggesting.

But if this does reflect the final result it's difficult not to see at least one or two other Tory MPs defecting.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I suppose it's possible some people may have moved into Clacton since 2010, and have voted UKIP in their previous seats. But false recall is most likely.

(With no actual UKIP, the BNP did surprisingly well in Clacton in 2010)

[johnloony]

It would be perhaps more exciting for us anoraks if nobody had invented the idea of opinion polls or voting intention polls. It would be more dramatic if a huge swing in a by-election came as a big shock or surprise, without prior warning. One example would be the Newbury by-election in 1993, which the Lib Dems won by a margin of 22,000 (which I, for one, had not foreseen at all).

[Pimpernal]

I think if I was a Tory I'd be tempted to argue for a David Davies' byelection sort of attitude and not contest the seat... Let UKIP and Labour slug it out and dismiss the whole thing as a sideshow...

[swindonlad]

Aug 31, 2014 5:16:08 GMT Pimpernal said:

I think if I was a Tory I'd be tempted to argue for a David Davies' byelection sort of attitude and not contest the seat... Let UKIP and Labour slug it out and dismiss the whole thing as a sideshow...

Why should we, number of differences, most significantly, David Davis did not change parties, so the party who held the seat contested it?

[AuxilioDivino]

Aug 30, 2014 23:19:24 GMT Ben Walker said:

Interesting point of note: a number of voters surveyed said they had voted UKIP in 2010.
And yet there was no UKIP candidate in 2010...?

Perhaps they lived somewhere else in 2010?

Edited; Oops didn't read the last page before I replied and just seen David already said the same thing.

[Pimpernal]

Aug 31, 2014 6:12:21 GMT swindonlad said:

Aug 31, 2014 5:16:08 GMT Pimpernal said:

I think if I was a Tory I'd be tempted to argue for a David Davies' byelection sort of attitude and not contest the seat... Let UKIP and Labour slug it out and dismiss the whole thing as a sideshow...

Why should we, number of differences, most significantly, David Davis did not change parties, so the party who held the seat contested it?

Damage limitation old chap

[Deleted]

I'm not sure how much damage limitation there would be in running away.

[Harry Hayfield]

Aug 31, 2014 0:06:13 GMT johnloony said:

It would be perhaps more exciting for us anoraks if nobody had invented the idea of opinion polls or voting intention polls. It would be more dramatic if a huge swing in a by-election came as a big shock or surprise, without prior warning. One example would be the Newbury by-election in 1993, which the Lib Dems won by a margin of 22,000 (which I, for one, had not foreseen at all).

That reminds me actually, back in the 1990's, I sent letters to the party I thought most likely to win a by-election producing a forecast based on the last by-election in the region, the last set of local elections in that constituency and the last European Elections (which become redundant thanks to the regional lists) and I seem to recall that I forecast the Christchurch majority pretty much on the nose (maybe 1% out either way).

[johnr]

Aug 30, 2014 23:19:24 GMT Ben Walker said:

Interesting point of note: a number of voters surveyed said they had voted UKIP in 2010.
And yet there was no UKIP candidate in 2010...?

So one would assume their views were weighted down to zero?

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 31, 2014 0:06:13 GMT johnloony said:

It would be perhaps more exciting for us anoraks if nobody had invented the idea of opinion polls or voting intention polls. It would be more dramatic if a huge swing in a by-election came as a big shock or surprise, without prior warning. One example would be the Newbury by-election in 1993, which the Lib Dems won by a margin of 22,000 (which I, for one, had not foreseen at all).

Another would be Bradford West but I agree with the pooint