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Post by thirdchill on Aug 31, 2014 16:14:10 GMT
The Patriotic Socialist Party have selected Dave Osborn to fight Clacton, according to their facebook page. Of course we wish him well. /to get double figures /to get at least 1% The lib dems should at least be assured of not coming last with PSP throwing their hat in the ring. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2014 16:25:41 GMT
Of course we wish him well. /to get double figures /to get at least 1% The lib dems should at least be assured of not coming last with PSP throwing their hat in the ring. I retain my sense of the Haltemprices about this election, so I think there is no way we're coming last. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 31, 2014 16:43:06 GMT
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Post by Devonian on Aug 31, 2014 18:37:21 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2014 18:39:15 GMT
Jerry Hayes isn't all there, is he?
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seanf
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Post by seanf on Aug 31, 2014 20:25:58 GMT
I think Jerry Hayes is blogging from Jonestown, Guyana.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2014 20:51:05 GMT
Who will take the decision on when to move the writ for the by-election? Is it the Tories?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 31, 2014 20:53:20 GMT
Who will take the decision on when to move the writ for the by-election? Is it the Tories? The precedent from Mitcham and Morden in 1982 is that it is the Chief Whip of the party which the incumbent was elected for - but the former MP can choose the timing. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 1, 2014 0:16:22 GMT
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Post by swindonlad on Sept 1, 2014 7:45:52 GMT
Why should we, number of differences, most significantly, David Davis did not change parties, so the party who held the seat contested it? Damage limitation old chap  Can't see why any of the 3 main parties would not stand in every parliamentary election in GB? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 1, 2014 8:14:33 GMT
It was at the edge of legitimate for Labour to decline to stand in Haltemprice on the grounds that the byelection was simply a political stunt by the sitting MP and that Labour didn't hold the seat to begin with, but for the Conservatives not to stand in Clacton would only signify cowardice in the face of the enemy.
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neilm
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Clacton
Sept 1, 2014 8:43:22 GMT
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Post by neilm on Sept 1, 2014 8:43:22 GMT
It's worth pointing out here that in some countries, mainly with Iberian heritage, the social democrats are the right of centre party. Barroso, for example, formerly headed the Portuguese Social Democrats and the Brazilian PSDB is on the moderate right. The Gibraltar Social Democrats are now avowedly left wing sadly. The Portuguese Social Democrats are part of the EPP, of course. And in the 80's Spain had the Centro Democratico y Social, led by Adolfo Suarez. It was a right-of-centre party aimed at moderate voters who didn't feel comfortable with Alianza Popular under Manuel Fraga (who had been a minister under Franco). The reason those parties use the 'social democratic' label is because Spain, Portugal and Brazil were all under military / far-right dictatorships for prolonged periods in the 20th Century. As a result, there is a stigma attached to being right-wing so they present themselves as centrist. There's also a semi religiouz Christian Democrat factor in politics in these countries. It's surprising it's not more overt in Spain really. Fraga achieved some impossible seeming leaps really, reflecting a very acute sense of political reality. You can see elements of his style with Canete, now off to the Commission. |
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Post by swindonlad on Sept 1, 2014 8:48:21 GMT
It was at the edge of legitimate for Labour to decline to stand in Haltemprice on the grounds that the byelection was simply a political stunt by the sitting MP and that Labour didn't hold the seat to begin with, but for the Conservatives not to stand in Clacton would only signify cowardice in the face of the enemy. Both of these elections have more to do with the MP's ego & embarrasing the PM than anything else. Carswell (autocorrect tries to change to farewell, appropriate) is doing his best to get a split in the Conservative vote & help Miliband into no 10 I agree with your second point about Clacton, it would look bad for a number of reasons, of which that would be one, it would look like we're scared of UKIP in this constituency. I disagree with your (& LD) decision over Haltemprice, but understand in a constituency you had no chance why you did it. Personally would have found someone local & given them a few leaflets & wish them the best of luck. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 1, 2014 9:16:19 GMT
An election (and by-election) is part of normal trade in politics and serious parties must fight it as best they may. In the case of stunts by men in white suits, or men out of sympathy with a strand of thinking in their own party, or a seat for a Speaker, it may be politic or a convention not to stand if cogent reasons are given. In multi-party politics there is no longer shame in standing and doing very badly in areas known to be 'weak' territory. All parties tend to have such areas. Gone are the days when the 'big two' were worried to drop below second place and mortified to come below third. The rise of the SDP and the SNP saw to that. The thing to avoid is being seen to drop 'two places' or more or to lose seat and not even to be second. In the case of a Clacton with a possible surge for an emerging party it is best to fight a straight-forward honest campaign with a good candidate. Use the opportunity to see who the core supporters are and to rebuild the local party and regroup ready for better days. Possibly all parties will take a big hit. All can gain a lot from the experience if handled right.
One supposes the Conservatives fear a very major upset is possible at Clacton? One that lost them the large majority and the seat and left them in a poor rump third place before a more resilient Labour party in those particular circumstances? It is an unusually favourable seat to UKIP under current conditions and so should not be seen as the thin end of an enormous wedge of such seats all over the country. Most of the other possible UKIP defectors do not sit in such extremely favourable territory. This has to be faced, managed and absorbed with dignity and good humour. It is an irritation and it keeps the UKIP momentum going and the 'bandwagon effect' alive far too far into the GE run up, and that too must be carefully managed perhaps with big news from the manifesto on by-election day or the day after. My fear as a Tory strategist would be of a rolling programme of defections after the deadline for 'not holding' further by-elections, leaving a growing cadre of newly 'turned' UKIP MPs in place in the Commons, sitting in the opposition and detailing every possible error, mistake and point of conflict within the Tory back benches. That could have a wearing and acid effect that causes major internal division and brings out the vicious and the nasty into full light just before the GE. If UKIP can achieve that I think it would strike at the heart of the Cameroon Experiment and tend to wreck it with schism and dissension.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Sept 1, 2014 9:38:31 GMT
It was at the edge of legitimate for Labour to decline to stand in Haltemprice on the grounds that the byelection was simply a political stunt by the sitting MP and that Labour didn't hold the seat to begin with, but for the Conservatives not to stand in Clacton would only signify cowardice in the face of the enemy. Both of these elections have more to do with the MP's ego & embarrasing the PM than anything else. Carswell (autocorrect tries to change to farewell, appropriate) is doing his best to get a split in the Conservative vote & help Miliband into no 10 It would be good if people stopped trotting out this argument. It's weak, doesn't resonate with the public and seems wholly designed to appeal to members who like moan to their mates at the Con Club or the saloon in the Dog and Duck. On the balance of things, I would prefer a David Cameron led government to an Ed Miliband led one, because it might be slightly more my cup of tea in some areas. On the substantive issues, public spending the main one, the two are offering a dose of the same. The Conservative Party needs to offer reasons to vote Conservative rather than dole out this hackneyed, negative nonsense. It won't change any minds. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 1, 2014 12:19:35 GMT
Not much of a scandal. Those are all opinions you'll hear frequently aired in the constituency, probably mostly by people planning on voting UKIP. But the slogan is actually Harwich for the continent, Frinton for the incontinent, and Frinton's had a chippie for at least fifteen years now. Shows he's not from round here. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 1, 2014 12:32:08 GMT
Comparing this by-election with Haltemprice/Howden in 2008 is pretty spurious, tbh.
If the Tories duck out of contesting this they will be universally ridiculed - even by their normally supportive media.
It really is a non-starter.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 1, 2014 12:34:59 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2014 15:05:42 GMT
An election (and by-election) is part of normal trade in politics and serious parties must fight it as best they may. In the case of stunts by men in white suits, or men out of sympathy with a strand of thinking in their own party, or a seat for a Speaker, it may be politic or a convention not to stand if cogent reasons are given. In multi-party politics there is no longer shame in standing and doing very badly in areas known to be 'weak' territory. All parties tend to have such areas. Gone are the days when the 'big two' were worried to drop below second place and mortified to come below third. The rise of the SDP and the SNP saw to that. The thing to avoid is being seen to drop 'two places' or more or to lose seat and not even to be second. In the case of a Clacton with a possible surge for an emerging party it is best to fight a straight-forward honest campaign with a good candidate. Use the opportunity to see who the core supporters are and to rebuild the local party and regroup ready for better days. Possibly all parties will take a big hit. All can gain a lot from the experience if handled right. H One supposes the Conservatives fear a very major upset is possible at Clacton? One that lost them the large majority and the seat and left them in a poor rump third place before a more resilient Labour party in those particular circumstances? It is an unusually favourable seat to UKIP under current conditions and so should not be seen as the thin end of an enormous wedge of such seats all over the country. Most of the other possible UKIP defectors do not sit in such extremely favourable territory. This has to be faced, managed and absorbed with dignity and good humour. It is an irritation and it keeps the UKIP momentum going and the 'bandwagon effect' alive far too far into the GE run up, and that too must be carefully managed perhaps with big news from the manifesto on by-election day or the day after. My fear as a Tory strategist would be of a rolling programme of defections after the deadline for 'not holding' further by-elections, leaving a growing cadre of newly 'turned' UKIP MPs in place in the Commons, sitting in the opposition and detailing every possible error, mistake and point of conflict within the Tory back benches. That could have a wearing and acid effect that causes major internal division and brings out the vicious and the nasty into full light just before the GE. If UKIP can achieve that I think it would strike at the heart of the Cameroon Experiment and tend to wreck it with schism and dissension. To be honest, I think it will be hard to win the by-election, although don't think it particularly plausible that we will com 3rd either. Best to put up a hard and fair fight based on some of Carswells more contradictory statements and positions (and let's face it, there are a couple there). |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 1, 2014 15:12:31 GMT
An election (and by-election) is part of normal trade in politics and serious parties must fight it as best they may. In the case of stunts by men in white suits, or men out of sympathy with a strand of thinking in their own party, or a seat for a Speaker, it may be politic or a convention not to stand if cogent reasons are given. In multi-party politics there is no longer shame in standing and doing very badly in areas known to be 'weak' territory. All parties tend to have such areas. Gone are the days when the 'big two' were worried to drop below second place and mortified to come below third. The rise of the SDP and the SNP saw to that. The thing to avoid is being seen to drop 'two places' or more or to lose seat and not even to be second. In the case of a Clacton with a possible surge for an emerging party it is best to fight a straight-forward honest campaign with a good candidate. Use the opportunity to see who the core supporters are and to rebuild the local party and regroup ready for better days. Possibly all parties will take a big hit. All can gain a lot from the experience if handled right. H One supposes the Conservatives fear a very major upset is possible at Clacton? One that lost them the large majority and the seat and left them in a poor rump third place before a more resilient Labour party in those particular circumstances? It is an unusually favourable seat to UKIP under current conditions and so should not be seen as the thin end of an enormous wedge of such seats all over the country. Most of the other possible UKIP defectors do not sit in such extremely favourable territory. This has to be faced, managed and absorbed with dignity and good humour. It is an irritation and it keeps the UKIP momentum going and the 'bandwagon effect' alive far too far into the GE run up, and that too must be carefully managed perhaps with big news from the manifesto on by-election day or the day after. My fear as a Tory strategist would be of a rolling programme of defections after the deadline for 'not holding' further by-elections, leaving a growing cadre of newly 'turned' UKIP MPs in place in the Commons, sitting in the opposition and detailing every possible error, mistake and point of conflict within the Tory back benches. That could have a wearing and acid effect that causes major internal division and brings out the vicious and the nasty into full light just before the GE. If UKIP can achieve that I think it would strike at the heart of the Cameroon Experiment and tend to wreck it with schism and dissension. To be honest, I think it will be hard to win the by-election, although don't think it particularly plausible that we will com 3rd either. Best to put up a hard and fair fight based on some of Carswells more contradictory statements and positions (and let's face it, there are a couple there). I see no evidence at all that that approach works with UKIP supporters. |
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