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Post by Devonian on Sept 14, 2014 20:11:34 GMT
Something odd going on with the Swedish election. The exit poll orginally put the Swedish Democrats on 10.5% but the projection now seems to be around 15% after some real votes counted. Now down to 13.3% after 3584 out of 5837 wards counted. I'm wondering if the SDs are tending to be more popular in faster counting wards. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 14, 2014 20:13:29 GMT
Anyone care to contradict this theory- that the SD vote will prove to be highest in and around Malmo? Not in Malmö, but around it. The SD vote will be at the highest in suburban and exurban areas and at its lowest in Stockholm, Malmö and Göteborg. Sorry, should have made that clearer (although I agree with you entirely)- I am specifically stating that the highest SD vote of anywhere in Sweden will be found within a fifty mile radius of Malmo. |
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 14, 2014 20:18:34 GMT
Not in Malmö, but around it. The SD vote will be at the highest in suburban and exurban areas and at its lowest in Stockholm, Malmö and Göteborg. Sorry, should have made that clearer (although I agree with you entirely)- I am specifically stating that the highest SD vote of anywhere in Sweden will be found within a fifty mile radius of Malmo. The reason for that prediction being what? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 14, 2014 20:20:41 GMT
Christian Democrats hanging on in there, Feminist Initiative/I Can't Believe It's Not The Left Party looking like they will not make it.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 14, 2014 20:24:45 GMT
Sorry, should have made that clearer (although I agree with you entirely)- I am specifically stating that the highest SD vote of anywhere in Sweden will be found within a fifty mile radius of Malmo. The reason for that prediction being what? For reasons similar to those pointed out by @ Richard Allen. The outer suburbs of Malmo are, how do we put it best- sensitive. Very ghettoised and with a high number of asylum seekers who have been dumped in some of the outer suburbs. Add in the fact that it's quite a dangerous place and you can well imagine that the SDs will be in their element. (NB: Malmo is quite nice for a visit, but you do have to be very, very careful where you go) |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 14, 2014 20:28:34 GMT
I was in Malmo recently for a few hours. Seemed very nice in the centre. Maybe a few shifty characters in the park area next to the cemetery.
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 14, 2014 20:32:17 GMT
Not in Malmö, but around it. The SD vote will be at the highest in suburban and exurban areas and at its lowest in Stockholm, Malmö and Göteborg. Sorry, should have made that clearer (although I agree with you entirely)- I am specifically stating that the highest SD vote of anywhere in Sweden will be found within a fifty mile radius of Malmo. Looks like 32.8% in Näsum which actually looks more than 50 miles from Mälmo. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 14, 2014 20:32:45 GMT
Turnout appears to be 83.1%. That's also a good forecast for the Scottish referendum IMO. |
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 14, 2014 20:33:21 GMT
The reason for that prediction being what? For reasons similar to those pointed out by @ Richard Allen. The outer suburbs of Malmo are, how do we put it best- sensitive. Very ghettoised and with a high number of asylum seekers who have been dumped in some of the outer suburbs. Add in the fact that it's quite a dangerous place and you can well imagine that the SDs will be in their element. (NB: Malmo is quite nice for a visit, but you do have to be very, very careful where you go) Thank you. It seems an odd place for asylum seekers..........remote, cold, speaking Swedish. What is the immigrant position in Sweden generally? Is it perceived to be a problem of numbers? Are there pressures on facilities? Why this so marked reaction? I had always assumed Britain was a target for immigrants because of lax borders, English speaking, and facilities fairly easy to gain from complacent authorities. Ditto France and Germany to a lesser extent (don't speak world's second language) but not too keen on going far north or to minority language areas, or to Russia at all! |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 14, 2014 20:37:06 GMT
Current projections showing the highest SD vote as it stands are North and East Scania, West Scania (i.e. Malmo's environs) and Blekinge, which is around Karlskrona.
Single highest SD score in any town I can see so far is in NE Scania, specifically Bromolla between Kristianstad and Karlskrona, where a whacking 29.5% of the electorate have gone SD. There are a number of others where the SD have got over 25%.
They currently show at 13.7% in Malmo commune and are at 15% in Karlskrona town proper. They're also just shy of 10% in Gothenburg.
The Moderates are currently doing best in Stockholm, city and county. Up in Norrbotten, the Social Democrats are at nearly 50%!
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 14, 2014 20:41:01 GMT
For reasons similar to those pointed out by @ Richard Allen. The outer suburbs of Malmo are, how do we put it best- sensitive. Very ghettoised and with a high number of asylum seekers who have been dumped in some of the outer suburbs. Add in the fact that it's quite a dangerous place and you can well imagine that the SDs will be in their element. (NB: Malmo is quite nice for a visit, but you do have to be very, very careful where you go) Thank you. It seems an odd place for asylum seekers..........remote, cold, speaking Swedish. What is the immigrant position in Sweden generally? Is it perceived to be a problem of numbers? Are there pressures on facilities? Why this so marked reaction? I had always assumed Britain was a target for immigrants because of lax borders, English speaking, and facilities fairly easy to gain from complacent authorities. Ditto France and Germany to a lesser extent (don't speak world's second language) but not too keen on going far north or to minority language areas, or to Russia at all! Very open policies for a long time, in fact there's at least one party currently in government (I think it's the KDs) that wants even more people in the country in a sort of Populate or Perish move. Unfortunately, it's now starting to grate on a lot of people, especially as industry has declined in large parts of Sweden as in the rest of the Western world. Hence the SDs, who a few years ago were a fringe movement with not a prayer of parliamentary representation, are now suddenly racking up votes. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 14, 2014 20:43:11 GMT
Sorry, should have made that clearer (although I agree with you entirely)- I am specifically stating that the highest SD vote of anywhere in Sweden will be found within a fifty mile radius of Malmo. Looks like 32.8% in Näsum which actually looks more than 50 miles from Mälmo. I will stand corrected then! I am surprised by the strength of the SD vote in that area as I go through the vote results now. 30% in Sjobo is the highest I have found now. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 14, 2014 21:03:31 GMT
If I've added up correctly, it looks like the centre-left's lead over the centre-right is going to be about 4 points, which is about half of what most of the recent opinion polls were saying.
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Post by Devonian on Sept 14, 2014 21:11:21 GMT
Something odd going on with the Swedish election. The exit poll orginally put the Swedish Democrats on 10.5% but the projection now seems to be around 15% after some real votes counted. With 5634/5837 counted the SD vote seems to have settled at 13.0%. The shy Swedish Democrat effect doesn't seem to be quite as daramtic as it first appeared but its definitely there. |
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Post by Devonian on Sept 14, 2014 21:30:09 GMT
Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt conceeds defeat and announces his intention to resign
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 14, 2014 21:35:30 GMT
So between the SD and the Greens they're going to have 38% of the vote which will be an unsustainable number of seats one would imagine. With Left they would have 43.7% but still a clear minority. Will the SD try to come to an accommodation with one or more of the LFP, C or KDP for a clear majority?
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Post by Devonian on Sept 14, 2014 21:40:43 GMT
Reinfeldt also to resign as leader of the moderate party  |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 14, 2014 21:44:54 GMT
I'm guessing the SDs would like to see a minority centre-left government in power for a short time on the basis that they might "mess it all up" and so make the SDs more popular.
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Post by Devonian on Sept 14, 2014 21:45:09 GMT
Results so far after 5771/5837 voting districts counted
Social Democrat 31.2%
Moderate 23.3%
Swedish Democrat 13.0%
Green 6.8%
Centre Party 6.2%
Left Party 5.7%
Liberal People's Party 5.4%
Christian Democrats 4.6%
Feminist Initiative 3.1%
Other 0.9%
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Post by Ben Walker on Sept 14, 2014 21:45:39 GMT
Feminist Initiative must be utterly crushed now. I'd've liked them to have representation in the Parliament. Meanwhile the SweDems are clearly ecstatic over doing better than polling suggested.
Putting aside the translation barrier, a new line for the Moderates: "vote SweDem, get SocDem?"
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