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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 1, 2014 9:38:20 GMT
Conservative whips took everyone by surprise and moved the writ this morning. Clearly don't want a long build up to this one. Doesn't the Conmons have to be sitting for the writ to be moved? It's a bit early in the day. Questions started at 9.30 this morning. |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 1, 2014 9:40:27 GMT
Interesting - I assume that the Tories want it out of the way quickly as, if it is a loss, it'll be lost in the post Euro recriminations or, if it is a hold, they can present it as a bounceback after what are expected to be terrible Euro results for them. The problem with choosing this date from the Tories point of view is that you're expecting voters to go to the polls twice in two weeks. Inevitably some people won't bother, which will benefit the party with the most enthusiastic supporters, which at the moment is UKIP. |
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Post by timokane on May 1, 2014 9:47:26 GMT
Won't there be an overlap with postal votes with a June 5th poll ? You have got the ingredients of a complete balls up if postal votes for the bye election are issued before the other elections have taken place.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2014 9:56:30 GMT
Won't there be an overlap with postal votes with a June 5th poll ? You have got the ingredients of a complete balls up if postal votes for the bye election are issued before the other elections have taken place. Postal votes will go out around May 21st, so an overlap but not enough to confuse. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2014 9:57:33 GMT
Moving the Writ this quickly is indeed prudent and sensible for the Tories and shows that they are focused on the tasks that need to be done.. They now at least have a chance of holding this seat before (any of) the Opposition parties get a chance to build up there operation on the ground. The next stage will be more tricky of course....
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on May 1, 2014 10:10:23 GMT
The age of the long byelection campaign seems dead. In other words, we are reverting to what was the norm until the 1960s when byelections were almost two a penny. And on balance, that is a good thing - voters should not be deprived of HoC representation longer than is necessary. |
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Post by timokane on May 1, 2014 11:00:58 GMT
Won't there be an overlap with postal votes with a June 5th poll ? You have got the ingredients of a complete balls up if postal votes for the bye election are issued before the other elections have taken place. Postal votes will go out around May 21st, so an overlap but not enough to confuse. Not to you or me, Dok but let's play Devils Advocate here. A lot of people on receiving their postal vote send it back the same day.if you cast your vote for the Newark By Election having taken notice of the exit polls or latest available opinion polls for the European election, surely your vote has been influenced. The losing candidates legal teams could have a field day. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on May 1, 2014 11:04:28 GMT
Postal votes will go out around May 21st, so an overlap but not enough to confuse. Not to you or me, Dok but let's play Devils Advocate here. A lot of people on receiving their postal vote send it back the same day.if you cast your vote for the Newark By Election having taken notice of the exit polls or latest available opinion polls for the European election, surely your vote has been influenced. The losing candidates legal teams could have a field day. On what possible legal argument or point of law? |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on May 1, 2014 11:06:25 GMT
Would you need to find someone who had cast their ballot on that basis? Also here you could argue there is evidence that people vote differently in different sets of elections (I'll be voting differently in the Euro and council elections for example, and differently again in GE next year) so polls don't quite the same impact.
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Post by justin124 on May 1, 2014 12:56:44 GMT
By recent standards a 5 week campaign is not particularly short.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2014 12:57:20 GMT
so any rumours on when UKIP will 'select' a candidate and if she/he has a social media presence ?
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 1, 2014 14:43:21 GMT
The age of the long byelection campaign seems dead. In other words, we are reverting to what was the norm until the 1960s when byelections were almost two a penny. And on balance, that is a good thing - voters should not be deprived of HoC representation longer than is necessary. Ideally there should be a balance between this and having time for a reasonable campaign. I would say anything between 5 and 8 weeks is okay on both counts. Across the pond the good folks living in North Carolina's 12th congressional district have been unrepresented in the House since 6th January and will remain unrepresented until early November. |
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on May 1, 2014 14:50:16 GMT
Not to you or me, Dok but let's play Devils Advocate here. A lot of people on receiving their postal vote send it back the same day.if you cast your vote for the Newark By Election having taken notice of the exit polls or latest available opinion polls for the European election, surely your vote has been influenced. The losing candidates legal teams could have a field day. On what possible legal argument or point of law? The sadly non existent law against monumental stupidity? |
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Khunanup
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Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on May 1, 2014 19:52:33 GMT
What Mr Farage has done with his "no ties to the East Midlands" excuse is effectively ruled himself out of choosing Boston & Skegness as his constituency next year, which had been tipped as one of his best options. If he does that now, you can be sure that his opponents, not to mention the media, will rake that one up. He's not exactly my favourite politician, but he's not stupid. Hes made the right decision, but I don't believe it has anything to do with the geography of the situation or the importance of the Euro elections. He knew he wouldn't win, plain and simple. I think he has ruled himself out of Boston and Skegness and I think that's deliberate. Firstly I notice that in recent Westminster by elections UKIP has followed a policy of having candidates who are local to the area or at the very least to the region and I think Farage will follow that when choosing his seat for next year. A number of UKIP's 2015 target seats will be in his home county of Kent.
Secondly when UKIP do draw up their list of target seats for 2015 Farage is likely to want a seat near the top of the list but not at the top for the simple reason that he will not want to run the risk of being UKIP's only MP. He has repeatedly said when asked about by elections that what he wants is not to be the party's sole MP but to be the head of a UKIP team in the Commons. Looking the the Greens and Respect makes clear why. Caroline Lucas had to quit as leader of the Green Party because she did not have time to combine this with her role as an MP. George Galloway is frequently criticised for constantly doing media work and having a poor attendance record.
Cameron, Clegg and Milliband are able to combine being an MP with being the leader of a major party. The are able to have poor attendance records and constantly doing media work without being criticised for it. The reason is that they are the heads of large teams of MPs in the Commons who can share out tasks. In one MP parties however the MP has to be their own HoC spokesman on every subject, their own whip and their own backbencher. And then get criticised if they don't do all those jobs. All for the sake of one vote out of 650. I am quite sure that Farage would rather not be an MP at all unless he was the head of a group of UKIP MPs.
My argument is that he should he have won this by-election (and in the aftermath of the Euros I think that is a distinct possibility) he would have quickly been joined by 7 or 8 Tory MPs who would have the excuse they were looking for. That they believe they could win as UKIP in their seats and that UKIP could beat them or at least make them lose at the general. Think of it as kind of an SDP approach but the seat winning itself is the catalyst. That would of course be a strategy to take them forward and actually win MPs and become a factor in the body that governs this country's relationship with the EU. But he's more interested it would seem in being party of a body he despises and ultimately has no power to do what he wants to do. See his lack of identifying a seat to fight in 2015 for example. The county elections in Kent were an excellent guide and he could have identified a seat there and then. But that would be a bit to much like real politics for him wouldn't it, and instead he can swan around pontificating and making grand ststements without actually doing anything about pulling us out of the EU. Because without that strategy, all you Kippers on here are wasting your lives, your time and effort, working for a party who will, at this rate, not even have a voice in the Commons. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on May 1, 2014 20:00:13 GMT
It's almost like being in the Alliance isn't it...
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Post by Devonian on May 1, 2014 21:05:22 GMT
I think he has ruled himself out of Boston and Skegness and I think that's deliberate. Firstly I notice that in recent Westminster by elections UKIP has followed a policy of having candidates who are local to the area or at the very least to the region and I think Farage will follow that when choosing his seat for next year. A number of UKIP's 2015 target seats will be in his home county of Kent.
Secondly when UKIP do draw up their list of target seats for 2015 Farage is likely to want a seat near the top of the list but not at the top for the simple reason that he will not want to run the risk of being UKIP's only MP. He has repeatedly said when asked about by elections that what he wants is not to be the party's sole MP but to be the head of a UKIP team in the Commons. Looking the the Greens and Respect makes clear why. Caroline Lucas had to quit as leader of the Green Party because she did not have time to combine this with her role as an MP. George Galloway is frequently criticised for constantly doing media work and having a poor attendance record.
Cameron, Clegg and Milliband are able to combine being an MP with being the leader of a major party. The are able to have poor attendance records and constantly doing media work without being criticised for it. The reason is that they are the heads of large teams of MPs in the Commons who can share out tasks. In one MP parties however the MP has to be their own HoC spokesman on every subject, their own whip and their own backbencher. And then get criticised if they don't do all those jobs. All for the sake of one vote out of 650. I am quite sure that Farage would rather not be an MP at all unless he was the head of a group of UKIP MPs.
My argument is that he should he have won this by-election (and in the aftermath of the Euros I think that is a distinct possibility) he would have quickly been joined by 7 or 8 Tory MPs who would have the excuse they were looking for. That they believe they could win as UKIP in their seats and that UKIP could beat them or at least make them lose at the general. Think of it as kind of an SDP approach but the seat winning itself is the catalyst. That would of course be a strategy to take them forward and actually win MPs and become a factor in the body that governs this country's relationship with the EU. But he's more interested it would seem in being party of a body he despises and ultimately has no power to do what he wants to do. See his lack of identifying a seat to fight in 2015 for example. The county elections in Kent were an excellent guide and he could have identified a seat there and then. But that would be a bit to much like real politics for him wouldn't it, and instead he can swan around pontificating and making grand ststements without actually doing anything about pulling us out of the EU. Because without that strategy, all you Kippers on here are wasting your lives, your time and effort, working for a party who will, at this rate, not even have a voice in the Commons. All of this is assuming that Farage would be more likely to win the seat than another UKIP candidate with good local links. I don't think that and I suspect Farage doesn't think it either. Farage would not want to be seen as a carpetbagger and I would suggest that potential UKIP voters are often exactly the kind of people to be most suspicious of carpetbaggers and most likely to be swayed by the argument that the Conservative candidate is a 'local man' |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2014 21:08:13 GMT
Somebody didn't check the date over then in Tory hq. Same day as eec referendum in 1975
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 1, 2014 21:14:16 GMT
Somebody didn't check the date over then in Tory hq. Same day as eec referendum in 1975 Is that likely to change many votes? Or indeed any votes? |
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2014 21:43:37 GMT
Somebody didn't check the date over then in Tory hq. Same day as eec referendum in 1975 Is that likely to change many votes? Or indeed any votes? Dunno, is my honest answer. But I am guessing when you get to choose the election date and the party you see as your opposition are anti EU, why then give them an open goal of matching up the by election with the anniversary of the last time people voted on whether to be in or out of the EU. Just seems a school boy error to leave that door open. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on May 1, 2014 21:49:12 GMT
My argument is that he should he have won this by-election (and in the aftermath of the Euros I think that is a distinct possibility) he would have quickly been joined by 7 or 8 Tory MPs who would have the excuse they were looking for. That they believe they could win as UKIP in their seats and that UKIP could beat them or at least make them lose at the general. Think of it as kind of an SDP approach but the seat winning itself is the catalyst. That would of course be a strategy to take them forward and actually win MPs and become a factor in the body that governs this country's relationship with the EU. But he's more interested it would seem in being party of a body he despises and ultimately has no power to do what he wants to do. See his lack of identifying a seat to fight in 2015 for example. The county elections in Kent were an excellent guide and he could have identified a seat there and then. But that would be a bit to much like real politics for him wouldn't it, and instead he can swan around pontificating and making grand ststements without actually doing anything about pulling us out of the EU. Because without that strategy, all you Kippers on here are wasting your lives, your time and effort, working for a party who will, at this rate, not even have a voice in the Commons. All of this is assuming that Farage would be more likely to win the seat than another UKIP candidate with good local links. I don't think that and I suspect Farage doesn't think it either. Farage would not want to be seen as a carpetbagger and I would suggest that potential UKIP voters are often exactly the kind of people to be most suspicious of carpetbaggers and most likely to be swayed by the argument that the Conservative candidate is a 'local man' Diane James was a carpetbagger and it did her no harm at all. You see if you think strategically and take some risks you can achieve some results you otherwise would have no chance of achieveing. This by-election will take place in perfect storm conditions for UKIP. Bung scandal Tory resignation, two weeks after the Euros, what more do you want? Quite frankly it doesn't matter who the UKIP candidate is but surely having one of the most high profile and popular politicians in the country at the moment as your candidate isn't gaoing to harm your campaign? Many people are going to vote UKIP at the Euros because of Farage, why the hell wouldn't you make use of that. Well I know why because Farage calls the shots in his party entirely and he wouldn't know strategy if it bit him on the arse. Obviously I have no time for UKIP whatsoever and would be happy if their gleeful anti-immigrant rhetoric became a thing of the past. But for Farage to be let off the hook after refusing to take his best chance to properly establish his party in the Commons is short-sighted. I find it hard to see any UKIP MPs being elected in 2015 now because the party (as in Farage) doesn't have the stomach for it. |
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