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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2014 22:13:55 GMT
Somebody didn't check the date over then in Tory hq. Same day as eec referendum in 1975 Is that likely to change many votes? Or indeed any votes? From a purely journalistic perspective, it gives every hack within drinking distance of Newark's best WiFi connection a good 250 words on 'portents from history for UKIP' |
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Post by johnloony on May 2, 2014 2:12:43 GMT
Dunno, is my honest answer. But I am guessing when you get to choose the election date and the party you see as your opposition are anti EU, why then give them an open goal of matching up the by election with the anniversary of the last time people voted on whether to be in or out of the EU. Just seems a school boy error to leave that door open. In order for your theory to be worth anything, it would be necessary for the voter to be simultaneously clever enough to be aware of the date and stupid enough to think it's relevant. |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 2, 2014 4:15:44 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2014 6:05:29 GMT
Dunno, is my honest answer. But I am guessing when you get to choose the election date and the party you see as your opposition are anti EU, why then give them an open goal of matching up the by election with the anniversary of the last time people voted on whether to be in or out of the EU. Just seems a school boy error to leave that door open. In order for your theory to be worth anything, it would be necessary for the voter to be simultaneously clever enough to be aware of the date and stupid enough to think it's relevant. So in that quote you are saying anyone who complains that for 39 years we have had not had another chance for our opinion on whether or not we should be in the EU, which has changed from the EEC to the EC then to the EU. is stupid? Maybe this is why there is such a backlash from the electorate. If the Main three parties actually stuck to their words and gave a referendum then UKIP would be dead in the water as I am sure if you asked a voter what other UKIP policy they could name I am sure they would come up wanting if it was anything other than cut our ties with Europe and bring the money back to the UK and not give it away to the world. It seems that Labour and the Conservatives use the winning of elections on other subjects to then do carte blanche to do what they like on everything. How stupid would somebody be, to say I will insure that 0.7% of my household income will be given to charity when I have debt collecters knocking at my own door and not to sure of my own job security. Yes in relative terms we are rich, but then India has a space program and gets foreign aid from us. It is the fault of the main three parties that they marginalise such a large proportion of the population that they are being driven to UKIP. I said the same in 1997, if the Conservatives had just said they would have held a refferendum on Europe they would have gained the 1 million votes that party got plus a few more for those who turned to Labour. Blair would have not got the majority to be such a dictator with. Then again you almost think that this is how politics is set up. A game of one side going in to supposedly clean up the mess of the last lot, saying they would have done things differently but are forced to do what they are doing because of the state of the country. The then opposition saying they would have done it differently if you had only given us chance. Then on the next cycle after election the positions are changed but the scenario stays the same. All in all those elected gets well paid jobs to ensure their friends get looked after and the stupid general public as you put it loony pay for it. |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
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Post by Crimson King on May 2, 2014 6:58:31 GMT
Dunno, is my honest answer. But I am guessing when you get to choose the election date and the party you see as your opposition are anti EU, why then give them an open goal of matching up the by election with the anniversary of the last time people voted on whether to be in or out of the EU. Just seems a school boy error to leave that door open. In order for your theory to be worth anything, it would be necessary for the voter to be simultaneously clever enough to be aware of the date and stupid enough to think it's relevant. it is possible that there will be those who would wish to assist the electorate by informing them of the date and seeking to persuade them it is relevant |
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Post by martinwhelton on May 2, 2014 7:58:53 GMT
Could Suzanne Evans, UKIP communities spokesperson be Newark bound given her many recent media appearances including Question Time and Newsnight. Not standing in the European's and standing in a ward in Merton where she has next to no chance of winning. Seem to be very keen to promote her on the media.
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2014 8:49:03 GMT
Lee Woods is the Patriotic Socialist Party candidate here...
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2014 9:06:28 GMT
Lee Woods is the Patriotic Socialist Party candidate here... This will be good for a laugh. |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 2, 2014 9:38:36 GMT
Will it be Tuesday 13th May for close of nominations?
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cefin
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Post by cefin on May 2, 2014 10:47:26 GMT
I think he has ruled himself out of Boston and Skegness and I think that's deliberate. Firstly I notice that in recent Westminster by elections UKIP has followed a policy of having candidates who are local to the area or at the very least to the region and I think Farage will follow that when choosing his seat for next year. A number of UKIP's 2015 target seats will be in his home county of Kent.
Secondly when UKIP do draw up their list of target seats for 2015 Farage is likely to want a seat near the top of the list but not at the top for the simple reason that he will not want to run the risk of being UKIP's only MP. He has repeatedly said when asked about by elections that what he wants is not to be the party's sole MP but to be the head of a UKIP team in the Commons. Looking the the Greens and Respect makes clear why. Caroline Lucas had to quit as leader of the Green Party because she did not have time to combine this with her role as an MP. George Galloway is frequently criticised for constantly doing media work and having a poor attendance record.
Cameron, Clegg and Milliband are able to combine being an MP with being the leader of a major party. The are able to have poor attendance records and constantly doing media work without being criticised for it. The reason is that they are the heads of large teams of MPs in the Commons who can share out tasks. In one MP parties however the MP has to be their own HoC spokesman on every subject, their own whip and their own backbencher. And then get criticised if they don't do all those jobs. All for the sake of one vote out of 650. I am quite sure that Farage would rather not be an MP at all unless he was the head of a group of UKIP MPs.
My argument is that he should he have won this by-election (and in the aftermath of the Euros I think that is a distinct possibility) he would have quickly been joined by 7 or 8 Tory MPs who would have the excuse they were looking for. That they believe they could win as UKIP in their seats and that UKIP could beat them or at least make them lose at the general. Think of it as kind of an SDP approach but the seat winning itself is the catalyst. That would of course be a strategy to take them forward and actually win MPs and become a factor in the body that governs this country's relationship with the EU. But he's more interested it would seem in being party of a body he despises and ultimately has no power to do what he wants to do. See his lack of identifying a seat to fight in 2015 for example. The county elections in Kent were an excellent guide and he could have identified a seat there and then. But that would be a bit to much like real politics for him wouldn't it, and instead he can swan around pontificating and making grand ststements without actually doing anything about pulling us out of the EU. Because without that strategy, all you Kippers on here are wasting your lives, your time and effort, working for a party who will, at this rate, not even have a voice in the Commons. Strange isn't it that UKIP appears to be the only party where the media and other political parties demand where we must stand, and who must stand for us or apparently it's a bottle job if we don't do what is demanded by the scribes and the other political parties. Can I just reciprocate by demanding that 'bottler' Clegg stands in the Rhondda for the 2015 General election? Cheers. |
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Post by timokane on May 2, 2014 11:45:58 GMT
On what possible legal argument or point of law? The sadly non existent law against monumental stupidity? Lawyers seem to look for the extremely unlikely then present it as genuine need. What they thrive on is hasty legislation. The announcement of the Newark by election was made a day after the Government had amended the timing of the issuing of writs . www.parliament.uk/Templates/BriefingPapers/Pages/BPPdfDownload.aspx?bp-id=SN06609 |
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2014 11:50:04 GMT
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Post by Devonian on May 2, 2014 12:22:50 GMT
My argument is that he should he have won this by-election (and in the aftermath of the Euros I think that is a distinct possibility) he would have quickly been joined by 7 or 8 Tory MPs who would have the excuse they were looking for. That they believe they could win as UKIP in their seats and that UKIP could beat them or at least make them lose at the general. Think of it as kind of an SDP approach but the seat winning itself is the catalyst. That would of course be a strategy to take them forward and actually win MPs and become a factor in the body that governs this country's relationship with the EU. But he's more interested it would seem in being party of a body he despises and ultimately has no power to do what he wants to do. See his lack of identifying a seat to fight in 2015 for example. The county elections in Kent were an excellent guide and he could have identified a seat there and then. But that would be a bit to much like real politics for him wouldn't it, and instead he can swan around pontificating and making grand ststements without actually doing anything about pulling us out of the EU. Because without that strategy, all you Kippers on here are wasting your lives, your time and effort, working for a party who will, at this rate, not even have a voice in the Commons. Strange isn't it that UKIP appears to be the only party where the media and other political parties demand where we must stand, and who must stand for us or apparently it's a bottle job if we don't do what is demanded by the scribes and the other political parties. Can I just reciprocate by demanding that 'bottler' Clegg stands in the Rhondda for the 2015 General election? Cheers. Before she became an MP in 2010 Caroline Lucas never stood in a parliamentary by election, unlike Farage, and I don't remember her ever being criticised for that. |
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Post by Devonian on May 2, 2014 14:05:57 GMT
diane James was a carpetbagger and it did her no harm at all. You see if you think strategically and take some risks you can achieve some results you otherwise would have no chance of achieveing. This by-election will take place in perfect storm conditions for UKIP. Bung scandal Tory resignation, two weeks after the Euros, what more do you want? Quite frankly it doesn't matter who the UKIP candidate is but surely having one of the most high profile and popular politicians in the country at the moment as your candidate isn't gaoing to harm your campaign? Many people are going to vote UKIP at the Euros because of Farage, why the hell wouldn't you make use of that. Diane James did not have a high media profile before the by election. She didn't seem like an opportunist carpetbagger precisely because she wasn't a celebrity politician who had chosen the seat for herself as an 'easy' opportunity to get to the HoC. Farage did seem like an opportunist in Buckingham in 2010 and I'm sure that cost him votes. I'm sure some voters are star struck and would vote for a 'celebrity' candidate like Boris or Nigel. I rather suspect though that there are plenty of other voters who aren't impressed by that kind of thing and would prefer a good solid local candidate. The Conservatives have put up exactly such a local candidate and would undoubtedly have raised this argument at the election.
Farage himself said when interviewed about Newark that he had spoken to the local party and they, like him, were concerned about the possibility of him being seen as an opportunist. Farage remembers Buckingham he is also aware of the history of the Reform Party of Canada who got their 1989 by election breakthrough with an unknown local candidate. You say that 'having one of the most high profile candidates as [UKIP's] candidate isn't going to harm [their] campaign', but in fact it might. I wouldn't want someone like Nigel or Boris to be my MP and I'm sure I'm not the only person who thinks like that.
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Post by Devonian on May 2, 2014 14:27:34 GMT
so any rumours on when UKIP will 'select' a candidate and if she/he has a social media presence ? The Times yesterday said that they thought that UKIP would announce their candidate on Wednesday. Christine Hamilton on BBC This Week show last night said she thought it would be announced Tuesday evening. |
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2014 14:39:54 GMT
you would think for a national party they had better ideas than that ?
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2014 15:34:13 GMT
you would think for a national party they had better ideas than that ? Than what? Asking Christine Hamilton for anything? |
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Post by carlton43 on May 2, 2014 15:36:33 GMT
you would think for a national party they had better ideas than that ? 'Better ideas' than what? |
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Post by lewishamgreen on May 2, 2014 18:10:40 GMT
Before she became an MP in 2010 Caroline Lucas never stood in a parliamentary by election, unlike Farage, and I don't remember her ever being criticised for that. Although a key difference is the Greens had always been completely clear and focused about where their No. 1 target seat was, as far back as the 2001 General Election. Rather than UKIP building up a clear base for him in one seat, Farage has flitted about from one constituency to another at each General Election. That has perhaps created an impression that he is prepared to zap in somewhere random at a moment's notice. |
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2014 19:18:24 GMT
you would think for a national party they had better ideas than that ? Than what? Asking Christine Hamilton for anything? exactly, all the other parties we would know the procedures and timetable by now. |
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