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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2014 17:51:08 GMT
Mercer has resigned
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2014 17:52:47 GMT
2010
Conservative Patrick Mercer 27,590 53.9 +3.4
Labour Ian Campbell 11,438 22.3 −6.0
Liberal Democrat Pauline Jenkins 10,246 20.0 +1.6
UKIP Rev Major Tom Irvine 1,954 3.8 +1.0
Fascinating one has UKIP will be very buoyant after the Euro's
Nightmare for the Tories though as Labour will be expected to challenge and maybe win and of course UKIP
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 29, 2014 17:56:16 GMT
Re-post: I've done a few calculations using last year's local election results. The boundaries of the CC divisions don’t match up tidily with the constituency, but these are basically the ones that comprise the Newark constituency: Bassetlaw: Tuxford. Newark & Sherwood: Balderton, Collingham, Farndon&Muskham, Newark East, Newark West, Southwell&Caunton. Rushcliffe: Bingham. Votes, Newark, 2013 CC elections: Con: 10,750 (8/8 contested) Lab: 5,153 (8/8) UKIP: 3,520 (7/8) LD: 3,028 (7/8) Ind: 1,846 (2/8) Total: 24,297 Percentages: Con: 44.2% Lab: 21.2% UKIP: 14.5% LD: 12.5% Ind: 7.6% Changes from the 2010 general election: Con: -9.7% Lab: -1.1% UKIP: +10.7% LD: -7.5% Ind: +7.6% Not completely accurate because a small portion (in terms of population) of the Radcliffe on Trent CC division is included in the Newark constituency, although most of it is in Rushcliffe. Also a small bit of Tuxford is in Bassetlaw. 2013 CC results: docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGxoSGFQaWg1V2tyYklHcXFkTm9LTXc&pli=1#gid=0 |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2014 18:03:05 GMT
quite the opposite, he totally hates Cameron and the timing means he causes as much damage as possible. But being ex forces gave him no honour did it when taking corrupt cash did it ?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2014 18:23:08 GMT
Farage vs Boris vs Izzard, come on, let's have some fun
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2014 18:32:55 GMT
2010 Conservative Patrick Mercer 27,590 53.9 +3.4 Labour Ian Campbell 11,438 22.3 −6.0 Liberal Democrat Pauline Jenkins 10,246 20.0 +1.6 UKIP Rev Major Tom Irvine 1,954 3.8 +1.0 Fascinating one has UKIP will be very buoyant after the Euro's Nightmare for the Tories though as Labour will be expected to challenge and maybe win and of course UKIP Constituency map maps.google.co.uk/maps?q=http://mapit.mysociety.org/area/65696.kml |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 29, 2014 18:52:10 GMT
Farage vs Boris vs Izzard, come on, let's have some fun Surely that would mean Lembit for you guys  |
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 29, 2014 18:54:00 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2014 18:54:57 GMT
Farage vs Boris vs Izzard, come on, let's have some fun Surely that would mean Lembit for you guys Yeah, I didn't want to continue that line of thinking... |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 29, 2014 18:55:27 GMT
Farage vs Boris vs Izzard, come on, let's have some fun Surely that would mean Lembit for you guys Beat me to it ...  |
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myth11
Non-Aligned
too busy at work!
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Post by myth11 on Apr 29, 2014 19:03:34 GMT
i know this the seat well as i lived there for 13 years and went to school at Tuxford and i just can not see anything other than a con hold esp as the current numbers at the dc level are 29 con 5 indy 4 lib dem 2 lab and no ukip plus ukip did not do that well in the 2013 locals.
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 29, 2014 19:07:24 GMT
Newark demographics: White British: 93% White Other: 4% Asian: 1.2% Black: 0.6% Mixed: 1.2% Other: 0.2% Christian: 67% Hindu: 0.2% Jewish: 0.1% Muslim: 0.6% Sikh: 0.1% Other: 32% Owned: 31% Own/Mort: 43% Local Auth: 8% House Ass: 3% Private: 13% Other: 2% ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/newark/ |
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 29, 2014 19:17:48 GMT
Is this Labour throwing in the towel already? Sounds a bit downbeat:
"Patrick Wintour @patrickwintour 51m
Labour: "Will fight Newark but boundary changes since Labour last won. Tories 30 points ahead in 2010 and twice Lab's vote in 2013 councils"
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 29, 2014 19:25:07 GMT
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Post by swindonlad on Apr 29, 2014 19:29:44 GMT
Ladbrokes have suspended odds on Farage being UKIP candidate |
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 29, 2014 19:41:16 GMT
In case anyone's wondering whether the LDs might lose their deposit, the answer is I don't think so, because they have some pretty good support in the ultra-posh town of Southwell which should see them over the 5% mark relatively comfortably.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2014 19:56:35 GMT
Is this Labour throwing in the towel already? Sounds a bit downbeat: "Patrick Wintour @patrickwintour 51m
Labour: "Will fight Newark but boundary changes since Labour last won. Tories 30 points ahead in 2010 and twice Lab's vote in 2013 councils"just repeating the facts And Farage would be stupid to fight this seat. IF he won and it is a bigger if than some think he would bound to lose in the GE. He is a man of Kent and should fight a seat there if he is serious at all. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 29, 2014 20:02:40 GMT
I thought he was just a Kent.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2014 20:03:29 GMT
Is this Labour throwing in the towel already? Sounds a bit downbeat: "Patrick Wintour @patrickwintour 51m
Labour: "Will fight Newark but boundary changes since Labour last won. Tories 30 points ahead in 2010 and twice Lab's vote in 2013 councils"just repeating the facts And Farage would be stupid to fight this seat. IF he won and it is a bigger if than some think he would bound to lose in the GE. He is a man of Kent and should fight a seat there if he is serious at all. To bastardise Chaucer and my memories of reading Chaucer for ALevel, he most certainly is a man of Kent. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2014 20:04:23 GMT
Ah, Sibboleth, we great minds. He is indeed very Kentish. |
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