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Post by Devonian on Jun 1, 2014 11:04:55 GMT
For UKIP a win would be a massive boost, it would overcome in large the 'electability' issue they have with Westminster elections and that will help them enourmously in 2015. It would however be a double edged sword for UKIP. Helmer would be under immense scrutiny and ever vote he casts will be construed as UKIP policy effectively forcing the party to take positions on things where don't want to. That's true. However this might be the last by election of the Parliament. There's only about six months left for new vacancies to arise which would require a by election before the general election (perhaps someone knows what the exact date is that a vacancy would have to occur by for a pre-General election by election to be mandatory). A vacancy might come up in Portsmouth South or elsewhere in that time but then again it might not. As for taking positions he'll only have one years legislation to vote on and UKIP will be announcing their new manifesto in a few months anyway so I'm not sure that's too much of a problem, although problems could arise. Helmer's attendance record at the EP suggests he conscientious enough. I suspect that the biggest danger is that he'll make some massive 'gaffes' in interviews, always a possibility with Helmer. But while there are dangers there I think the huge boost of overcoming the 'electability' argument outweighs them. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2014 11:46:35 GMT
There's no six-month rule for Westminster, but I wager any necessary arrangements after November-ish will be made.
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 1, 2014 12:12:15 GMT
My favourite name for a Britain's Got Talent contestant is Paul Potts, also I am now of the opinion that UKIP are about to win their first Westminster seat. There was a fine writer and poet of the left named Paul Potts. And you are correct about Westminster. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 1, 2014 12:20:04 GMT
For UKIP a win would be a massive boost, it would overcome in large the 'electability' issue they have with Westminster elections and that will help them enourmously in 2015. It would however be a double edged sword for UKIP. Helmer would be under immense scrutiny and ever vote he casts will be construed as UKIP policy effectively forcing the party to take positions on things where don't want to. Yes it puts Helmer under even more, and more constant, scrutiny, but that cannot last without appearing to be 'hounding and stalking' and that could rebound to the Party's advantage. The votes position is not a problem in that he can be absent from the house if a vote would prove difficult. This is common feature of UKIP members and whilst it irritates the anorak fraternity it has little effect on the electorate even when brought to their attention by the press. |
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Post by Devonian on Jun 1, 2014 15:48:35 GMT
UKIP poster in Newark  |
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Sibboleth
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'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 1, 2014 15:50:13 GMT
For UKIP a win would be a massive boost, it would overcome in large the 'electability' issue they have with Westminster elections and that will help them enourmously in 2015. It would however be a double edged sword for UKIP. Helmer would be under immense scrutiny and ever vote he casts will be construed as UKIP policy effectively forcing the party to take positions on things where don't want to. This exactly. Additionally it should be noted that Helmer has been an MEP for fifteen years. There are aspects of the culture of the European Parliament that... |
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Sibboleth
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'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 1, 2014 15:54:45 GMT
Yes it puts Helmer under even more, and more constant, scrutiny, but that cannot last without appearing to be 'hounding and stalking' and that could rebound to the Party's advantage. Ah but you confuse scrutiny with cheap attacks. UKIP has been subject to many of the latter and, yes, they have rebounded and will continue to do so. The former not so much. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 1, 2014 16:04:45 GMT
UKIP poster in Newark Smacks of desperation more than confidence. Invites the question "Just how exactly will you do that?" |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 1, 2014 16:15:00 GMT
I for one encourage UKIP to make many more impossible promises such as the above.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2014 17:52:22 GMT
For UKIP a win would be a massive boost, it would overcome in large the 'electability' issue they have with Westminster elections and that will help them enourmously in 2015. It would however be a double edged sword for UKIP. Helmer would be under immense scrutiny and ever vote he casts will be construed as UKIP policy effectively forcing the party to take positions on things where don't want to. Of course he could go On an expenses binge and not bother to turn up instead  |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2014 17:54:26 GMT
UKIP poster in Newark This is the type of thing I mean regarding Ukips economic policy. Is it as clear as rain they are trying to position themselves to the economic left of the Tories. See today's announcement scrapping their policy for a flat tax too. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2014 18:51:42 GMT
My favourite name for a Britain's Got Talent contestant is Paul Potts. Who of course was a Bristol LibDem cllr for some years ..... |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2014 19:30:37 GMT
My favourite name for a Britain's Got Talent contestant is Paul Potts. Who of course was a Bristol LibDem cllr for some years ..... No, surely not. He was presented as a sad, unhappy and unfulfilled figure struggling to find his place in the world....oh, wait a minute..... |
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Post by thirdchill on Jun 1, 2014 20:46:02 GMT
UKIP poster in Newark This is the type of thing I mean regarding Ukips economic policy. Is it as clear as rain they are trying to position themselves to the economic left of the Tories. See today's announcement scrapping their policy for a flat tax too. They're trying to position themselves in a position that they think will be popular. Nothing more, nothing less. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2014 21:00:24 GMT
and eventually that position falls apart when you have to make real decisions based on cash available
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2014 21:34:51 GMT
and eventually that position falls apart when you have to make real decisions based on cash available Unlike Brown, and I assume Balls, who make decisions based on whether cash is available or not. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2014 21:55:08 GMT
and eventually that position falls apart when you have to make real decisions based on cash available It hasn't harmed the SNP, though their mish-mash manifestos have at least been well costed. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jun 1, 2014 23:00:30 GMT
and eventually that position falls apart when you have to make real decisions based on cash available Never been an issue for Labour, has it. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jun 1, 2014 23:04:03 GMT
UKIP poster in Newark This is the type of thing I mean regarding Ukips economic policy. Is it as clear as rain they are trying to position themselves to the economic left of the Tories. See today's announcement scrapping their policy for a flat tax too. I'm less keen on UKIP after that. It may be curtains for me as far as UK politics is concerned. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 2, 2014 2:05:09 GMT
If Helmer does win the by-election, many of us will be eagerly waiting to see which one of George Galloway or Roger Helmer loses his seat by the greater margin at the general election.
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