Newark By-election

[markgoodair]

Jun 1, 2014 23:00:30 GMT neilm said:

Jun 1, 2014 21:00:24 GMT @ianrobo said:

and eventually that position falls apart when you have to make real decisions based on cash available

Never been an issue for Labour, has it.

Still isn't.

[Deleted]

So comfortable Tory lead from Ukip by 15%

Sent from my C5303 using proboards

[Deleted]

With the breakdown as follows: Con 42, UKIP 27, Lab 20, LDem 6, Others 5.

Fairly sceptical about these figures tbh.

[Richard Allen]

Jun 2, 2014 15:18:09 GMT @dogooder said:

With the breakdown as follows: Con 42, UKIP 27, Lab 20, LDem 6, Others 5.

Fairly sceptical about these figures tbh.

The figures hardly sound unreasonable. UKIP have no record of any significance in this seat and while that isn't always fatal in a by election it can be a problem.

[Deleted]

and they picked Helmer

[Devonian]

Notice that Lord Ashcroft mentions this

This poll shows a bigger Tory lead than was found by Survation in their by-election poll published at the weekend. Interestingly, though, the two polls put UKIP within a point of each other. This would seem to suggest that the “spiral of silence adjustment”, used in my poll but not in Survation’s, made little difference in UKIP’s case. The adjustment works by re-allocating a proportion of those who refuse to state or claim they don’t know how they will vote to the party they voted for at the last election. It was introduced to help account for “shy” voters who were reluctant to admit their allegiance, a problem which had the effect of seriously skewing polls at previous elections.

lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/06/tories-set-hold-newark/

Before this adjustment the figures were

Con 40%
UKIP 29%
Labour 19%
Lib Dem 5%
Ind 3%
Green 3%

After the adjustment

Con 42%
UKIP 27%
Labour 20%
Lib Dem 6%
Other 5%

lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Newark-by-election-poll-Full-tables.pdf

[myth11]

Jun 2, 2014 15:18:09 GMT @dogooder said:

With the breakdown as follows: Con 42, UKIP 27, Lab 20, LDem 6, Others 5.

Fairly sceptical about these figures tbh.

They are spot on for me

Newark town which everyone seems to be fixed on will be a 3 way tie but most of rest of the seat will be con 1st  with  ukip some way back in 2nd as the recent result in Tuxford ward which is labours best ward outside of newark  showed.

[Devonian]

Both these poll results are pretty good for UKIP. When you consider that

This is a seat where they have no councillors and no history
The Tories had a 50 point lead over UKIP in 2010
These are by far UKIP's best ever by election opinion polls. Their previous best was 21% in a poll for the Eastleigh by election.
Every single by election poll in this parliament that has given a figure for UKIP has underestimated them.

I think it is a sign of how far UKIP have progressed that no one is asking what would otherwise be the obvious question. Why have Labour slipped to third?

[Sibboleth]

...

[Deleted]

Jun 2, 2014 16:27:23 GMT Devonian said:

Both these poll results are pretty good for UKIP. When you consider that

This is a seat where they have no councillors and no history
The Tories had a 50 point lead over UKIP in 2010
These are by far UKIP's best ever by election opinion polls. Their previous best was 21% in a poll for the Eastleigh by election.
Every single by election poll in this parliament that has given a figure for UKIP has underestimated them.

I think it is a sign of how far UKIP have progressed that no one is asking what would otherwise be the obvious question. Why have Labour slipped to third?

Because Labour voters will quite happily vote UKIP to give the Tories a bloody nose, just a little mischief making by a pissed off electorate.

[Devil Wincarnate]

May 30, 2014 15:10:03 GMT neilm said:

Perhaps Nick can also become ambassador to Turkey as a kind of consolation prize when he leaves office?

If he did, he'd have to hope that history didn't repeat itself- given that the Nazis tried to assassinate Von Papen in Ankara!

[Devil Wincarnate]

May 31, 2014 18:25:15 GMT joe said:

May 31, 2014 15:04:58 GMT finsobruce said:

A budding political correspondent if ever I heard one... 

Meanwhile here is a photo of Sir Tufton Beamish: 

His daughter stood for labour in the borders recently. He himself was very wet - not at all like the character.

That's just made me realise that, from 1954 to 1990, there was always a Patrick Wall in Parliament.  That these were two separate Patrick Walls with...ahem...differing views is even more entertaining.

[swindonlad]

Jun 2, 2014 17:25:49 GMT @jimboo said:

Jun 2, 2014 16:27:23 GMT Devonian said:

Both these poll results are pretty good for UKIP. When you consider that

This is a seat where they have no councillors and no history
The Tories had a 50 point lead over UKIP in 2010
These are by far UKIP's best ever by election opinion polls. Their previous best was 21% in a poll for the Eastleigh by election.
Every single by election poll in this parliament that has given a figure for UKIP has underestimated them.

I think it is a sign of how far UKIP have progressed that no one is asking what would otherwise be the obvious question. Why have Labour slipped to third?

Because Labour voters will quite happily vote UKIP to give the Tories a bloody nose, just a little mischief making by a pissed off electorate.

Or, is it a continuation from the Euros/locals of seeing a certain sector of Labour voters switching to UKIP as they prefer their immigration policy?
I have not been to Newark, so not sure how large this demographic is there

[bossmark]

Tory hold but with a vastly reduced majority, Lib Dems to lose their deposit.

[Deleted]

Jun 3, 2014 5:32:14 GMT swindonlad said:

Jun 2, 2014 17:25:49 GMT @jimboo said:

Because Labour voters will quite happily vote UKIP to give the Tories a bloody nose, just a little mischief making by a pissed off electorate.

Or, is it a continuation from the Euros/locals of seeing a certain sector of Labour voters switching to UKIP as they prefer their immigration policy?
I have not been to Newark, so not sure how large this demographic is there

To a certain extent but I could see anti UKIP labour guys voting UKIP in an attempt to embarrass the Government, its what by elections are for, not worth a punt though as I was only offered 11/4.

[Sibboleth]

Remember that most actual voters don't view their vote in the same way that political activists do.

[mrhell]

Ladbrokes view politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/03/newark-a-report-from-the-front-line/
"By the afternoon, almost everyone present in the square were UKIP activists. Talking to each other. Presumably all the Tory party workers were wasting their time out knocking on doors instead."

[Andrew_S]

Count information, (and a countdown clock):

www.newark-sherwooddc.gov.uk/newarkbyelection/newarkby-electionresults/

[Andrew_S]

Andrew Muter, the returning officer:

www.newark-sherwooddc.gov.uk/seniorofficerpay/

[neilm]

Jun 3, 2014 22:46:30 GMT Andrew_S said:

Count information, (and a countdown clock):

www.newark-sherwooddc.gov.uk/newarkbyelection/newarkby-electionresults/

Interesting. A good idea.