Newark By-election

[Deleted]

actually as I am for PR that is the best way to get your votes properly represented not tactical voting.

[carlton43]

May 30, 2014 12:50:50 GMT @ianrobo said:

actually as I am for PR that is the best way to get your votes properly represented not tactical voting.

In that we can agree. But what is your comment on my analysis set out above?

[baloo]

While I'm sure that Labour supporters would find a Tory defeat here very funny in the short term I suspect that this wouldn't last. If UKIP can demonstrate that they can take Parliamentary seats then they will be a credible threat in a number of Labour seats, not just Tory ones. Besides which Labour may struggle to shrug off a third place finish here, especially if it is a Tory hold. While I appreciate that Labour don't have as much at stake here as we do I still think they need to make an effort for their own sakes.

[carlton43]

May 30, 2014 12:55:56 GMT baloo said:

While I'm sure that Labour supporters would find a Tory defeat here very funny in the short term I suspect that this wouldn't last. If UKIP can demonstrate that they can take Parliamentary seats then they will be a credible threat in a number of Labour seats, not just Tory ones. Besides which Labour may struggle to shrug off a third place finish here, especially if it is a Tory hold. While I appreciate that Labour don't have as much at stake here as we do I still think they need to make an effort for their own sakes.

And i agree with you.....Here.

[carlton43]

May 30, 2014 12:42:17 GMT Sibboleth said:

May 29, 2014 21:33:10 GMT carlton43 said:

I cannot see any strategic or tactical reason for not wishing to win.

Can't you? The electorate expects something different from an MP than an MEP you know. Caution.

Sorry. That is too gnomic for me. Explain what possible benefit we derive from not winning; and especially not winning 'on purpose'?

[justin124]

Nick Clegg - perhaps a bit like Franz Von Papen - a moderating influence that somehow did not quite work out.

[Deleted]

May 30, 2014 14:23:36 GMT justin124 said:

Nick Clegg - perhaps a bit like Franz Von Papen - a moderating influence that somehow did not quite work out.

Von Papen was no moderating influence, but a malign figure willing to cut a deal with the devil in the foolish belief that he could tame him.

[neilm]

Perhaps Nick can also become ambassador to Turkey as a kind of consolation prize when he leaves office?

[Deleted]

Michael Crick @michaellcrick
It's a long time since I've seen Tories so keen to win a by-election. Amazingly, Ukip don't seem that bothered; Lab + Lib Dems even more so

As per the previous conversation this is no surprise is it ?

[Andrew_S]

Great news — another Newark by-election poll will be released by Lord Ashcroft at 4pm on Monday:

twitter.com/LordAshcroft

[Andrew_S]

Turnout in Newark & Sherwood for the Euro elections was 36.08%. I assume Newark would usually have the higher turnout but it probably wouldn't have been more than 45%. Not sure whether the by-election would generate a higher turnout than the Euros:

www.newark-sherwooddc.gov.uk/vote/europeanparliamentaryelection2014/

[Deleted]

May 30, 2014 19:10:20 GMT @ianrobo said:

Michael Crick @michaellcrick
It's a long time since I've seen Tories so keen to win a by-election. Amazingly, Ukip don't seem that bothered; Lab + Lib Dems even more so

As per the previous conversation this is no surprise is it ?

Not really. I am glad we are putting everything out there. UKIP seem to lack advance planning.

[Andrew_S]

The fact that Lab and LDs are apparently not bothered could be very dangerous for the Tories. I think they would have preferred them to be putting everything into it because the Tories are probably guaranteed to win 33% which would be enough in a tough 3 way fight.

[finsobruce]

May 30, 2014 19:10:20 GMT @ianrobo said:

Michael Crick @michaellcrick
It's a long time since I've seen Tories so keen to win a by-election. Amazingly, Ukip don't seem that bothered; Lab + Lib Dems even more so

As per the previous conversation this is no surprise is it ?

when he says even more so, doesn't he mean even less so?

[johnloony]

May 30, 2014 9:06:13 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

If I was a Labour voter in Newark, my temptation to vote for UKIP in order to give a bloody nose to the Tories would be massively tempered by the horrific prospect that it might mean being represented in Parliament by that obnoxious homophobic ranting idiot of a UKIP candidate.

The danger is that the average Labour supporter in Newark might not be aware of Helmer being an obnoxious homophobic ranting idiot as much as we politicians are.

[Deleted]

well that is up to the party to show them that.

[carlton43]

May 30, 2014 15:10:03 GMT neilm said:

Perhaps Nick can also become ambassador to Turkey as a kind of consolation prize when he leaves office?

I like that Neil. Nick as plenipotentiary extraordinary to The Divine Porte. That rather suits him.

[carlton43]

May 30, 2014 23:59:46 GMT johnloony said:

May 30, 2014 9:06:13 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

If I was a Labour voter in Newark, my temptation to vote for UKIP in order to give a bloody nose to the Tories would be massively tempered by the horrific prospect that it might mean being represented in Parliament by that obnoxious homophobic ranting idiot of a UKIP candidate.

The danger is that the average Labour supporter in Newark might not be aware of Helmer being an obnoxious homophobic ranting idiot as much as we politicians are.

And former distinguished and much respected Conservative 'Senior' MEP!

[carlton43]

May 31, 2014 10:02:32 GMT @ianrobo said:

well that is up to the party to show them that.

And to explain away their embracing of him for many years. Hypocritical duplicitous bastards that they most certainly are. Advanced in the course of fairness and truth and in the nicest possible way!!

[Deleted]

I meant Labour should be saying what Helmer's views are ...