|
|
Post by relique on May 28, 2021 21:13:59 GMT
The second to last post on the départements: the right-wing départements that will definitely stay that way. There are quite a lot of those.
- Alpes-Maritimes (06) 43/9 to 50/4; this département of the Côte d'Azur around Nice is heavily right-wing. There are very few cities controled by the left: La Trinité (10,000) was won in 2020 by chevènementiste Ladislas Polski, Mouans-Sartoux (10,000) is historically green, now independent left, Contes (7,000), communist, Valbonne (13,000) was left-wing-socialist leaning but the incumbent was beaten by an independent ecologist. At départemental level, there is only two cantons left-wing: Contes in the alps, by a communist ticket including the mayor of Contes and Grasse-2 that includes Mouans-Sartoux and a fraction of Grasse (LR city). The canton of Valbonne was lost as it is placed with many right-wing cities. The city of Carros (11,000) was lost by PS in 2014 and the canton situated in Nice-3 wasn't even close in 2015. The left might have a shot in Nice-7 as it includes La Trinité, but the new left-wing mayor isn't running and has good relations with the other right-wing mayors so I'm not sure he'll campaign thoroughly. The left got about 28% in 2015 in two tickets (the right 34% and FN 38%). There is only one left-wing ticket this time. In Nice-5, completely included in the city, the left had 32% in two tickets in 2015 (with an incumbent center-left getting 25%). There is only one left-wing ticket this time and LR is facing a challenge by LREM.
- Ardennes (08) 21/14/2(others) to 31/7 wasn't always close to left-wing ideas, as it is a very rural and working class département (with quite a lot of hunting and a few champagne exploitation). But the urban left clearly is noawadays powerful in the political parties and their ambition doesn't seem to be to connect to those kind of working class voters. PS lost Charleville-Mézières (49,000, most populous city) in 2014 but kept Sedan (19,000, 2nd), although the mayor has turned his back on the party and is now independent left. PS lost a few cities in 2014 Revin (7,000, 4th), Vouziers (4,000, 8th) or Fumay (4,000, 9th). In 2020, some independent left candidates managed to keep their cities and even take back Fumay or Bogny-sur-Meuse (5,000, 7th) which left-wing mayor turned LREM. In 2015, the left managed to keep 3 cantons: Bogny-sur-Mese, Revin and Villers-Semeuse. In Nouvion-sur-Meuse, an independent left-wing leaning ticket won but one decided to join the right-wing majority. The left didn't get any seat in the four Charleville-Mézières cantons or the three Sedan ones. There might be two cantons around each city that could go left-wing but were lost due to divisions and national difficulties. The left have mostly unite for 2021 and could win Charleville-Mézières 1 and 4 and Sedan-2 and 3. In Rezin, the left-wing ticket is only facing RN.
- Aube (10) 26/7 to 34/0 there is one officially left-leaning independent but he joined the right-wing majority (his ticket was with a center-right candidate). The difficulties for the left are that there aren't many left-wing cities and they are isolated from one another so that when the new cantons were drawn, their strongholds become quite more isolated in the new cantons. In 2015, the left wasn't completely ridiculous in Romilly-sur-Seine (a long-time communist city, Romilly was lost to PS in 1989 who then lost it to UMP in 2008) and if they hadn't been divided they could have been qualified against FN and win. In Troyes-2 (which includes Sainte-Savine, lost in 2020) and Troyes-3 (which should always be pronounced the french way; with La Chapelle-Saint-Luc, the only left-wing city above 5,000 inhabitants left). In Troyes-4, Marc Bret, independent left, was elected with the center-right Catherine Bregeaut. In 2021, there is only one left-wing ticket in Romilly (but the results in municipales were disastrous, only 28%) and Troyes-2, but three left-wing tickets in Troyes-3 and two in Troyes-4, the incumbents getting the support of the right-wing majority.
- Cantal (15) 20/7 to 22/8; a very rural département in Massif Central, there are three cities above 5,000 inhabitants: Aurillac (27,000), Saint-Flour (7,000) and Arpajon-sur-Cère (6,000). Aurillac remains socialist, Saint-Flour center-right but Arpajon flipped from PS to LR in 2020. In smaller cities, the left lost Ytrac (4,000) in 2014 but took Riom-ès-Montagnes (3,000), Vic-sur-Cère (2,000) and Pleaux (1,500). In 2020, the left lost to the right Maurs (2,000), Jussac (2,000), Vic-sur-Cère and Massiac (2,000). In 2015, the left only kept four cantons, only one of the three Aurillac cantons, one with part of Saint-Flour, one around Saint-Paul-des-Landes and one around Ydes. There was relatively close elections in Aurillac-2 (52% for the right), Aurillac 3 (51% for the left), Maurs (56% for the right), Naucelles (53% for the right) Saint-Flour-2 (50,2% for the left) Saint-Paul-des-Landes (53% for the left), Ydes (55% for the left). RN will be completely absent from the elections. In two cantons there is only one ticket, who will still stand the election (they will be elected on the first round only if 25% of the registered voters come; if not, there will be a two rounds with only one ticket !). Considering the losses in the municipales, the left will be lucky if they keep 8 councillors !
- Eure-et-Loir (28) 19/10 to 28/2; a very right-wing rural départements, there are a few cities controled by the left. Lèves (6,000) was lost by PS in 2014 to the right and Lucé their biggest city (16,000) was lost in 2020. They kept the others: Vernouillet (12,000), Nogent-le-Rotrou (11,000) and Mainvilliers (10,000). In 2015 at the départementales, the left only managed to keep one canton around Lucé, but the two councillors joined the right-wing majority during their term. FN is more important here. The left was relatively close in Chartres-1 (51,5% for the right), Dreux-1 (left at 37% with two tickets on the first round, eliminated by FN at 32% and right at 31%), Dreux-2 (same thing with left at 40%, right at 33 and FN 27), Nogent-le-Rotrou (three way race with 40% for the right and 34% for the left). In 2021 the left is still divided in the cantons they could have targeted. It will therefore depends on wether the Greens prevent the left from getting into the second round.
- Indre (36) from 19/7 to 20/6 in 2015: a rural right-wing département, it has a few left-wing medium-sized cities, 2nd most populated Issoudun (12,000), 4th Le Blanc (6,000), 5th Le Poinçonnet (6,000), and 6th Argenton-sur-Creuse (5,000). The 2014 elections were stable but PS lost Le Blanc in 2020 to the right. In 2015, the left lost the Le Blanc canton (it was redrawn and included more right-wing rurality) but kept Argenton-sur-Creuse, Issoudun and Ardentes (which includes Le Poinçonnet). The left was not that far off in Châteauroux-3 (they were eliminated with 36% for three tickets). The left had two cantons in the previous four but didn't get any in the new three. In Saint-Gaultier, the left was eliminated with 32% by four tickets. There's a big alliance on the left with only one ticket per canton, which creates quite good places for the Greens (despite never having good results here) in Argenton and Ardentes. In Issoudun, the left selected two socialists against the (former socialists) incumbents. In Le Blanc, the ticket is Green-Insoumis.
- Loir-et-Cher (41) from 19/11 to 22/8 in 2015; a rural center-right département but with several left-wing cities, including the most populated: Blois (46,000), Romorantin-Lanthenay (17,000), Vendôme (17,000) and Vineuil (7,000). It has a centrist history with Maurice Leroy, former UDF (who left Bayrou to support Sarkozy in 2007), and nowadays, Bayrou loyalist Jacqueline Gourault, former mayor of La Chaussée-Saint-Victor, next to Blois, where you exit the A10, and senator, is now minister for local government. In 2014, the left lost Vendôme and Salbris (6,000), Lamotte-Beuvron (5,000) and Onzain (3,000). My 97 year-old grand-father and his father before him were socialist (SFIO then PS) mayors of the small village of Sassay, close to Contres during most of the 20th century. My great-grandfather was a socialist "conseiller d'arrondissement" (in the Montrichard canton, two terms), a 3rd republic function parralel to the départemental councillor, during the 1930s. The function was suppressed after the 2nd world war. He was denounced to the vichy police by his right-wing municipal opposition for having 'socialist and even communist tendencies', and they accused him of having stolen the school. He was kept for several weeks at the préfecture, and my great-grandmother waited for him to be released there. He and my grand father were part of the french resistance, with the FTP group (Franc-Tireurs et Partisans, communist and socialist). But the stealing was done by a teacher who was not affiliated with the resistance, just willing to sell things to the black market. The leaving of this teacher yielded to the opening of a position: it is my grandmother, coming from Tarn-et-Garonne, who got the position and later married the mayor's son.
In 2020, the left won Mer (6,000). In 2015, the left kept two of the three Blois cantons (Modem got Blois-2 where there is La Chaussée-Saint-Victor), Chambord with mayor of Mont-Près-Chambord, and Vineuil (which now includes part of Blois and also Cheverny and Cour-Cheverny). The left didn't win neither Romorantin nor Vendôme. In 2021, the left is mostly united, but without the incumbents! They will field a ticket against the left-wing incumbents in Chambord, Vineuil, Blois-3 and against candidates from the municipal majority of Romorantin (the mayor, Jeanny Lorgeoux, former socialist, was senator but lost in 2017 after he showed his support to Macron; left-wing voters didn't rally him on the second round and he lost against UDI Jean-Marie Janssens for 30 votes; the PS maintained candidate got 76 and another left-wing candidate 33). I don't see the united-left-without-incumbents doing much here.
- Loire (42) from 20/18/2(independents center left) to 28/14 in 2015; a right-wing département close to Lyon, but where the left has always been quite competitive in major cities. In 2014, of the 10 cities above 10,000 inhabitants, the left had 7 incumbents: they only kept 2: Firminy (17,000, communist) and Riorges (11,000, socialist). They lost Saint-Etienne (170,000), Roanne (36,000), Saint-Chamond (35,000), Montbrison (15,000) and Roche-la-Molière (10,000). In smaller cities, most incumbents were reelected, except in Saint-Priest-en-Jarez (6,000), won by the left and Villerest (5,000) won by the right. In 2015, the left managed to keep seven cantons: Firminy, Renaison (next to Allier where rurality is often equal to left-wing), both Roanne-1 and 2 and Saint-Etienne 3, 5 and 6. The left wasn't far off in Le Coteau, Montbrison and the three other Saint-Etienne cantons as they are quite balanced. But a few wins by the left were due to three way races with the right and FN, quite strong in these parts. The left could be eliminated from the second round there because participation will probably not allow a tird placed ticket to get 12,5% of registered voters. In 2020, the left lost Firminy as the communist mayor was excluded (because of a conviction in a harassement case) and it created turmoil, and only got back Rive-de-Gier. The former Firminy mayor was départemental councillor for PCF and is candidate for his reelection against an official PCF ticket lead by the mayor of Unieux (9,000).
- Haute-Loire (43) from 27/8 to 33/5 in 2015, a rural very right-wing département, fiefdom of Laurent Wauquiez, the president of the Region and former president of LR (who stills believes he has a shot in 2022), it has some left-wing cities. In 2014, the left lost the second most populated city, Monistrol-sur-Loire (9,000) and Brives-Charensac (4,000). It was more stable in 2020, although the once socialist mayor of Aurec-sur-Loire is now deemed independent. In 2015, one of his deputy-mayor was elected as an independent in the Aurec-sur-Loire canton against an independent ticket from the right-wing opposition. The elected councillors are part of the right-wing majority. The left kept two cantons: one of the four based in Le Puy-en-Velay (3), and Sainte-Florine. In Emblavez-et-Meygal, the ticket included a left-wing mayor and a center-right mayor, and the left-wing mayor stayed in the opposition. For 2021, there's already 5 cantons for which we know the future councillors, as they are unopposed. In 3 other cantons, the left is absent and the competition is among the right or sometimes the far-right. In Sainte-Florine, only two left-wing tickets are in competition: the socialists incumbent and an insoumis ticket. It might be the only left-wing canton left. In Le-Puy-3, the centrist mayor of Brives-Charensac with an opposition councillor of Saint-Germain-Laprade. The incumbent former mayor of Saint-Germain-Laprade André Cornu resigned from the mayorship last december because of a health problem and gave the mayorship to one of his deputy, Guy Chapelle who will also replace him on the left-wing ticket for départementales. The other incumbent, Laure Blée-Villard was part of the beaten left-wing list in Brives-Charensac in 2014 but didn't manage to have a list in 2020, which doesn't bode well... In Emblavez-et-Meygal, the incumbent left-wing changed his ticket and chose the new mayor of Rosières (1,500) who beat the incumbent right-wing majority. They will only face an insoumis ticket. So there should be 4 to 6 left-wing councillors, but nothing more.
- Loiret (45) from 27/14 to 36/6 in 2015; a quite right-wing département with Orléans, it has more and more become a suburb of Paris with executives taking the train to get to Paris and living in more rural and green areas. There are a few left-wing cities left. The railway city of Fleury-les-Aubrais (21,000) was communist (as many if not all railway cities in the past) but became center-right in 1995. In 2020, the socialists took it (probably benefitting from those parisian executives moving in this city to be close to the station). There are also Saint-Jean-de-Braye (21,000), Saran (communist, 16,000), Saint-Jean-de-la-Ruelle (16,000), from 3rd to 6th most populous. Olivet (22,000, second) became LREM as the right-wing mayor gathered their support recently. He failed to become president of the metropolitan area of Orléans as the LR mayor of Orléans threw his support toward the socialist mayor of Saint-Jean-de-Braye. LREM controls now also the mayorship of La Chapelle-Saint-Mesmin (10,000) and Saint-Jean-le-Blanc (9,000) but lost Beaugency (7,000) to the right. In 2014, the left had lost Pithiviers (9,000), Châteauneuf-sur-Loire (8,000), La Ferté-Saint-Aubin (7,000) and Briare (6,000). It was more stable in 2020. In 2015, the left only managed to keep three cantons: Saint-Jean-de-Braye, Fleury-les-Aubrais and Saint-Jean-de-la-Ruelle. The left was eliminated from Orléans-3 which includes Saran with 42% of the vote in two tickets (one socialist at 19% and one communist at 23%). They were also eliminated from Beaugency with 40% in two tickets and Châlette-sur-Loing with 34%. In these two cantons, there is only one left-wing ticket in 2021 with each time one socialist and one communist. Quite a rational thing to do. In Orléans-3, a communist ticket is up against a Green ticket as in several other cantons. There are other cantons with left-wing alliances but they don't really stand a chance, even united. Orléans-2 and 4 could be swing cantons but the left is divided.
- Maine-et-Loire (49) from 28/13 to 30/12; a relatively rural département, Angers (150,000) had been center-left for nearly forty years before flipping in 2014 to UMP Christophe Béchu. The same year, the center left PRG took Saumur (27,000) while the left lost Montreuil-Juigné (7,000), Bouchemaine (6,000) and Mûrs-Erigné (5,000). There were quite a lot of mergers of small cities to get to middle-town sizes (with a few fiscal incentives). In 2020, the Trélazé (15,000) socialist mayor turned LREM was reelected, and LREM took the new city of Loire-Authion (16,000). The left lost Chalonnes-sur-Loire (7,000). In the 2015 départementales, despite the loss of Angers and the other cities, the left managed to keep a good number of councillors, because the rural areas are here more right-wing. There were 8 cantons in the past around Angers and the left had 6. Now, there are 7 cantons (so 14 councillors, +6) and the left took four (8 councillors +2). In more rural parts, the left took Les Ponts-de-Cé and Doué-en-Anjou. The Angers cantons are quite well-balanced, except Angers-1, right-leaning and Angers-7, left-leaning. The two left-wing rural cantons were quite close, like Chalonnes-sur-Loire for the right. Saumur was a nailbiter: a 4-vote win for the right in 2015. For 2021, the left managed to select only one ticket for each Angers canton. It wasn't the case in the municipales when three lists took 36% of the vote, quite down from the 45% in 2014. The right-wing mayor was reelected easily on the first round with 58%. The left should keep Angers-7 (where the incumbents are running) which includes Trélazé and Loire-Authion, but the right-wing ticket includes a Modem candidate. Will the new LREM mayors campaign for the right or for the incumbents they supported in the past ? The left might have a shot of keeping Angers 3 and 4, which have some well-known incumbents. Elsewhere, there's also one left-wing ticket for each canton, except in Tiercé where there is none. In Saumur, fielding two communists condemns the left to a small role, even though the right is heavily divided. The left will be happy if they keep their cantons.
- Manche (50) from 34/18 to 40/14 Another right-wing rural département but with left-wing cities, the main one being the one where former PM Bernard Cazeneuve used to be mayor, Cherbourg-Octeville (38,000). The left lost Granville (13,000, 5th) in 2014 but won La Glacerie (6,000, 10th). In 2020, the left managed to take back Granville and to take Saint-Lô (19,000). In 2015, the left only managed to take cantons in North Contentin, around Cherbourg, despite having a few incumbents around Saint-Lô. In the two Saint-Lô cantons, the left was eliminated because of their divisions. They failed by a few votes to take Le Mortanais where they had two incumbents (the right had one). As Cherbourg-Octeville merged with Equerdreville-Hainneville, La Glacerie, Querqueville and Tourlaville, it grew to 80,000 inhabitants and became Cherbourg-en-Cotentin. The two (left-wing) cantons of Equeurdreville and Tourlaville became Cherbourg-en-Cotentin 4 and 5. In those two cantons, PCF fielded tickets against PS incumbents. Cherbourg-3 is a bit of a mess with four left-wing tickets, including one with incumbents without PS support, one PS-EELV ticket and one PS-PCF ticket. They should hope at least one ticket takes the lead as there's a chance the right and RN will be qualified if their divisions split them too evenly. In Cherbourg 1 and 2, there's only one PS ticket for the left and they should be elected. In Granville, the left was eliminated in 2015 with 31% in three tickets. This time, the right is divided as the incumbents have their own ticket. Could the left qualify against RN or a weakened right-wing ticket ? In Mortainais, the left didn't field any candidate, while in Les Pieux, the incumbent left-wing has chosen a Modem ticket. In Saint-Lô, the left have only fielded one ticket in each canton, and should be able to qualify for the second round. In Saint-Lô-1, the right has selected MP Philippe Gosselin with the incumbent female councillor. It's probably the most left-wing of the two, so it should be interesting. In Valognes where the left didn't do too bad in 2015, there's no left-wing ticket in 2021.
- Marne (51) from 25/17/2(independents) to 34/10/2(FN); a rural département with a few cities including Reims (180,000); it has been almost exclusively right-wing since the second world war, except when the national wave was heavily left-wing as in 1977 and 2008. In 2014, it returned to UMP Arnaud Robinet. It was the only big swing in 2014 in the département. In 2015, it resulted in the loss of much of the cantons for PS they had won in 2011 and 2008. Of the previous 10 cantons, the left controled 7, and of the new 9, they won three (so six councillors, still). The left kept one of the two Epernay canton, one of the new three Châlons-en-Champagne canton (they had two of the four previous ones), two right-wing cities. The merger of the two cantons of Vitry-le-François where there were two socialist councillors (the city is controled by PS) resulted in the win of the FN ticket in a three way race. On the first round, FN got 37%, the two socialist incumbents 28,78%, an UMP ticket 28,69% and a communist ticket 5%. In the second round, FN got 35%, PS 33% and UMP 32%. In four Reims cantons (5, 6, 7 and 9) the left, divided, was eliminated with good scores (respectively 39, 38, 39 and 38%). As cities close to Reims remained left-wing, they are usually included in some cantons and tend to push the Reims cantons rather to the left. In the 2020, the municipales were quite stable. Macronism rather infused with right-wing or center-right mayors. In 2021, the left is absent from some rural cantons they did quite poorly last time. They will have trouble keeping the Epernay and Châlons-en-Champagne cantons as they were won either in a two way race with FN or in a three way race. As they are still divided in those cantons. In Vitry-le-François, PS is putting a ticket in alliance with LREM while PCF have fielded their own ticket. There are two other right-wing tickets. In Reims, the left is divided, as in the last municipales. In Reims-2, both left-wing incumbents have their own ticket, in Reims-3 one incumbent is running again against a LFI ticket on the left and in Reims-8 there are two left-wing tickets but are only facing one right-wing ticket so at least one will not be eliminated. In Reims 5, 6 and 9, there is only one left-wing ticket, so they have a shot getting qualified this time. In Reims 7, there are two tickets, so less likely but still possible. Even if the left won the 4 Reims cantons and Vitry-le-François, they would only get 20 seats for 26 for the right.
- Haute-Marne (52) from 21/7/4(center-right, left independents) to 28/2/4(FN) in 2015; even more rural than the neighbouring Marne, it is also much more right-wing. In 2014, the left lost their biggest city: Wassy, 3,000 inhabitants, but won the next most populated, Chalindrey (2,500). In 2020, the left took back Wassy and added Langres (8,000), third most populated city to their small side (with a départemental PS councillor winning the city). Langres was the only canton who stayed left-wing in 2015. The left's councillors were in very small very rural cantons that were included in massive ones and the left wing cities were isolated. In Saint-Dizier, there used to be two communist département councillor (the city was communist between 1971 and 1989 before turning socialist for one term and then always right-wing). Saint-Dizier-1 became FN in the second round against the right-wing ticket. In the rural Eurville-Bienville, FN won on the first round in a two-way race against a right-wing ticket (that included an incumbent councillor). The two cantons are quite close to each other, in the southern suburbs of Saint-Dizier. Saint-Dizier-3 is probably the most left-wing, as it includes much of the previous communist cantons, but the left was eliminated with 35% in two tickets (FN allies SIEL got 38% but lost against the right-wing ticket, 27% on the first round). In 2021, the left-wing incumbents in Langres (including the new mayor) seem poised to keep the canton. There are usually one or zero left-wing ticket except in Saint-Dizier-3 where two left-wing tickets are up against the right-wing incumbents and RN. In Wassy, where the left did 40% with three tickets in 2015 but were eliminated from the second round, there are no left-wing ticket ! Quite a peculiar thing as taking back the city should have been a good sign for them.
- Mayenne (53) from 26/6 to 30/4 in 2015, this very rural, very center-right département. Socialist have one big name, Guillaume Garot, who managed to be the first left-wing MP elected in a constituency two round election since the second world war (there was one in 1986 but it was a PR election; during the 4th republic, there were also almost-PR elections). He became mayor of Laval in 2008 but left it to one of his deputy when he became minister in the Ayrault government. In 2014, Laval (51,000) was lost to UDI Zocchetto, as was Evron (7,000) to UDI as well. In 2015, the number of cantons in Laval went from 5 to 3, and the left controled from 3 to 1 canton, losing one councillor (Garot was part of the elected ticket in Laval-3, while his successor Boyer lost in Laval 1). The left also lost a seat in Mayenne (the left-wing mayor was previously elected in one of the two cantons but lost in the new canton) which includes lots of smaller right-wing cities around it). They also lost the Evron canton following the municipales, but won L'Huisserie, a new cantons that included parts of different cantons south of Laval. In 2020, PS managed to take back the city of Laval. In Mayenne, the left-wing mayor turned LREM but did not try to be reelected. There were three lists who came from the previous majority, one centrist supported by the incumbent, one LREM and one left-wing. The fourth list represented the UDI opposition. It's the left-wing list that won in a three way race on the second round, the list supported by the mayor deciding no to face the second round (they only got 14% on the first). The LREM list finished at 7% on the second round after barely qualifying. The left lost L'Huisserie (4,000) (the mayor had turned rather LREM) while three incumbent right-wing mayors turned LREM were reelected (in cities with about 3,000 inhabitants). In the départemental council, there are now 8 LREM councillors, seven of which are part of the majority and one in the opposition, the former mayor of L'Huisserie. The incumbent center-left ticket in L'Huisserie has the support of LREM and no opponent on the left, facing a tough three way race against the right and RN after the loss of L'Huisserie (the other part of the ticket is the reelected mayor of Louvigné). The right-wing-elected LREM are the entire tickets of Château-Gontier-1 and Gorron and part of the tickets in Cossé-le-Vivien, Laval-2 and Villaines-la-Juhel. There's no LREM candidates in Château Gontier, while the incumbent ticket in Gorron is up against a right-wing ticket and a RN one. In Cosson-le-Vivien the incumbent LREM is candidate with the UDI senator Elisabeth Doineau, facing a RN ticket. In Laval-2, the incumbents are not candidates but there are both a LREM ticket and a right-wing ticket, facing a left-wing ticket from the new left-wing majority and RN. In Villaines-la-Juhel, the incumbent LREM is not candidate but there is a LREM-supported ticket against the other, LR, incumbent. There's also a PS and a RN ticket. There is only one other LREM ticket in Bonchamp-lès-Laval facing the incumbent right-wing, a left-wing ticket and a RN ticket. The left is absent from 5 out of 17 cantons and only have one ticket in 11 cantons and two in Loiron-Ruillé. They have shot in the three Laval cantons which are well balanced, and in Mayenne (which was only won by 150 votes last time). In L'Huisserie, the incumbents can be reelected and seat with the left-wing opposition.
- Meuse (55) from 18/13 to 26/6/2(FN) in 2015, a very rural département around Verdun, where there are 9 communes "mortes pour la France" where a mayor is designated by the Préfet (in 6 of which there are no inhabitants). In 2014, the left won Verdun (18,000) but lost the second, third and fifth most populated cities: Bar-le-Duc (16,000), Commercy (6,000) and Ligny-en-Barrois (4,000). In 2015, the left lost the twi new Bar-le-Duc cantons (they had two incumbent councillors), Commercy (they had one incumbent) and Ligny-en-Barrois (one incumbent). The left controled two of the three cantons. They won one of the two new ones. PCF kept their Etain canton and socialists Revigny-sur-Ornain. There were a few left-wing incumbents in small rural cantons that were merged with right-wing ones, as in Clermont-en-Argonne (went from 14 to 50 cities) There is a FN canton due to a three way race in Saint-Mihiel. It was due to very poor transfers between the two rounds between UDI (29%) and UMP (14%). The UDI candidates only got 37,76% on the second round, FN 38,29% and the left maintained their ticket at 24%. There were no change in the (relatively !) big cities in 2020. There are left-wing candidates in 12 of the 17 cantons, but with only one ticket for each, except for Verdun-1 where the two incumbents left-wing have their own ticket, but it is the only two tickets in the canton. The left may have a shot in Verdun-2 (there are two right-wing tickets and a RN one; the left could qualify against RN and win), and in the Bar-le-Duc cantons where there are four tickets: one RN and one left-wing, one centrist and one right-wing which represent the three lists in the second round of the municipales: from the incumbent right-wing reelected mayor Joly (38% on the second round), the left-wing opposition (34%) and the centrist opposition (28%). RN wasn't able to find enough candidates for the municipales but their tickets might qualify. They didn't in 2015 but the field was less equally divided. The two other left-wing cantons were not easily won. In Etain, the communists were elected with 36% in a three-way race (34% for the right, 30% for FN), and in Revigny-sur-Ornain, the socialists didn't do much better (41% on the second round against FN at 31% and UMP at 29%). In Revigny, there is only a RN ticket against PS.
- Morbihan (56) from 24/18 to 34/8 in 2015; the left had made quite a lot of gains in Morbihan during the Chirac and Sarkozy terms, and in 2011, the left managed quite an upset in the senate elections. They had 1 incumbent elected in a PR election, the socialist Odette Herviaux (with 506 votes) against a RPR-UDF list who got one senator (553 votes) and one UDF list with also one senator (373 votes). There were smaller lists (PCF with 112, Greens 50 votes, regionalists 24, FN 7, far-right MNR 2, others 2). In 2011, PR representation was cancelled for three-seats départements (it was reinstated by the left afterwards), and the left feared they would lose their only seat. Socialists agree to field only one candidate, the incumbent, and PCF fielded one candidate and Greens one. Each voter had three votes, and at the general surprise, Herviaux was elected on the first round with a whopping 948 votes, and the two other left-wing candidates got 830 and 823 (about 48%). On the second round, they got 891 and 879, 52 and 51% and were elected against the two UMP candidates left. In the 2011 cantonales, the left still remained short of flipping the département. In 2014, the left lost quite a few cities: Ploemeur (18,000), Pontivy (14,000), Auray (13,000), Ploërmel (9,000), Quéven (9,000), Questembert (7,000), Brech (7,000), Inzinzac-Lochrist (6,000), Arradon (5,000) and Elven (5,000) while they only took Pluvigner (7,000). They lost quite a lot in the départementales. The new redrawing of Lorient created only two cantons that only included the city and Île de Groix. They could have easily include more cities around Lorient and created three left-wing cantons. The left easily took the two cantons. In Vannes, a right-wing city, the redrawing created three cantons, two of which going quite far in rural parts, guaranteeing that left-wing votes in Vannes wouldn't be too strong. Following the losses in the municipales, the left lost Ploemeur, Pontivy and Pluvigner cantons. Auray, Ploërmel and Questembert were already right-wing. The left kept the big rural canton of Gourin, a merger of three left-wing and one right-wing cantons, and the also big canton of Moréac, a merger of different cities from different cantons, both left and right-wing. In Hennebont, the loss of the city for PCF (to another left-wing) weakened them and the incumbent didn't even qualify. The right won against socialists 53/47. In Lanester, the left was eliminated with 45% (+ 4% for regionalists) in three tickets. In 2020, the left managed to lost Lorient despite having 53% on the second round, but with two lists. The new UDI mayor was only elected with 35% with LREM getting 12%. The Green Giard supported by PS, PCF and regionalists got 33% while a dissident socialist départemental councillor got 20%. Following this, there are now four and three left-wing tickets in the two Lorient seats. The incumbents dissident socialists in Lorient 1 are facing a PS-PCF ticket, an Insoumis ticket and another left-wing ticket from a list eliminated with 7% on the first round last year. The new mayor supports a right-wing-LREM ticket while RN faces a dissident "La Voie républicaine" ticket. In Lorient-2, the incumbents are not candidate, one of which was the LREM head of list in the municipales and joined the new mayor's majority after the election. There's a Green-independent left wing ticket, a Génération.s (Hamonist) ticket, one right-wing and two far-right (RN and "La Voie républicaine"). The left could lose both cantons, but it might be easier in Lorient-2. Elsewhere, the left (in the larger sense, with regionalists) has no ticket in 3 cantons, one ticket in 8 and two tickets in 8. In Gourin there are two, in Moréac one, in Lanester two, in Vannes 1 and 2 one and in Vannes 3 two. It will be difficult for the left to take back some ground, and even keep their four cantons.
- Moselle (57) from 28/18/5(right-wing independents) to 40/14 in 2015, a balanced département as the north-east, the Valley of Fensch, is the big industrial Moselle where socialists (and sometimes communists) have had control for a long time. Metz is more right-wing, flipping only in the big wave of 2008, and surprisingly staying PS in 2014 for 770 votes in a three-way race with FN at 6,000 votes. The left did lose Thionville (41,000) in the industrial zone, which was only socialist for one term (it was communist from 1977 to 1995). They kept Forbach (22,000) despite a very national challenge by FN's VP Florian Philippot, but lost Hayange (16,000) to FN, Florange (11,000) to UMP, Maizières-lès-Metz (11,000) to the right, Hettange-Grande (8,000) to UMP, Mondelange (6,000) and Marange-Silvange (6,000) to independent right-wing. The left won only Amnéville (10,000). The -ange suffix created the nickname "vallée des anges". In the 2015 départementales, the left still maintained their control over the core of the Fensch valley with Algrange, Hayange, Fameck and Rombas, but lost Thionville (they controled one of the two previous cantons), Metzervisse, Le Sillon mosellan and Les Coteaux de Moselle. In Metz, the left managed to take two of the three new cantons (they only controled two of the four previous ones). In the Forbach region, the left lost Forbach but kept Freyming-Merlebach. In Saint-Avold, the left controled one of the two cantons but lost the new one. Only in Forbach and Metzervisse the left was eliminated because of their divisions. Elsewhere, they weren't too far in Metz-2 and Thionville. In 2020, the left suffered more, losing Metz (115,000) by 200 votes, Forbach (22,000) to the right or center-right, Guénange (7,000), Petite-Rosselle (6,000), L'Hôpital (5,000) and Nilvange (5,000). RN kept Hayange but didn't win anything more. In Forbach, Philippot was eliminated on the first round with a list by his new party, Les Patriotes, RN doing only 4%. In 2021, the left is only divided in Metz and Thionville, with two tickets in those cantons. In Metz, PS, PCF and EELV are in alliance on one side, with two socialist incumbents, and on the other side there are Génération.s, Insoumis and a center-left party. In Thionville, there's a PS-EELV ticket against a center-left one. In Forbach, the right and the far-right are highly divided, the two incumbents gaving their own ticket and there's a third ticket, as well as Philippot in one ticket and RN in the other; in the municipales, the left was so low they still are not sure to qualify. In Metzervisse, the left didn't field anyone, while in Rombas, the left-wing incumbents are only facing RN. In Saint-Avold, the right and the center have 6 tickets, the left only one: the communists, and the far-right two. It will be hard for the left to take back some ground or at least to keep what they have.
- Orne (61) from 30/10 to 28/14, a very rural right-wing département in Normandie, the left managed to control the five cities above 5,000 inhabitants, although L'Aigle (8,000) was won by Modem in 2008 and the mayor just switched party to center-left PRG during his term. It was this city that was lost in 2014 to UMP. Otherwise, it was quite a stable election, and in 2015, the left managed to do quite well, as the more urban parts were left-wing and they won more councillors in the redrawing. For example, there were two Argentan socialist départemental councillors in the past, and in 2015 the two new cantons (and four councillors) were won by PS. In Alençon, there was a setback as PS only won one of the two cantons, despite controling the three incumbent seats. There was a perfect equality of votes between PS and UDI, and the winners were the ones with the oldest average age. The left won the two Flers cantons and La Ferté-Macé, multiplying their councillors there by two. The left also won Sées, formerly right-wing which merged with Mortrée, left-wing. Elsewhere, the left only was close in Damigny, 200 votes behind (the two main cities, Condé-sur-Sarthe, 2,000 and Damigny, 3,000, being left-wing and compensating for the other more rural cities). In 2017, the mayor of Alençon, PS Joaquim Pueyo managed to be reelected as an MP (although without any LREM candidate against him), but his successor later joined LREM. He was against this shift and headed a list against the new incumbent in 2020. He won back the city for PS, getting 43% on the second round against 25% for LR, 20% for the incumbent and 13% for the Greens (with PCF most other left-wing parties). The left lost La Ferté-Macé but won Sées (4,000). The left is not united in the cantons that matter, with often two tickets, one PS and one PCF-Insoumis. La Ferté-Macé might be lost by the left but they could win Alençon-2 and Damigny.
- Bas-Rhin (67) from 32/10/2(independent right-wing) to 38/8 and Haut-Rhin (68) from 21/10 to 32/2 in 2015 now in a unique council. Both département's rurality is heavily right-wing, but in Bas-Rhin there are a few urban areas a bit more left-wing. In 2014, the left lost in Bas-Rhin Schiltigheim (32,000), Vendenheim (6,000) and Schweighouse-sur-Moder (5,000). Schiltigheim saw a by-election in 2018 with an ecologist, Danielle Dambach, close to the Greens, winning. There is a tradition of centrist ecologist in Alsace with former presidential candidate Antoine Waechter. PS Roland Ries was reelected in Strasbourg. In the 2015 départementales, the left only managed to keep four of the six new Strasbourg-based cantons (they used to control 7 of the 10). The left lost Schiltigheim and Illkirch-Graffenstaden, their two other cantons. The left was eliminated because of their divisions but could maybe have one both. In 2015, the regionalist party UnserLand managed to have quite good scores, as they campaigned against the merger of Alsace region with Lorraine and Champagne-Ardennes. They didn't win anything, though. In 2020, the Green Barseghian won Strasbourg, Ries retiring after going more and more macronist. The left lost Illkirch-Graffenstaden (27,000) and Ostwald (13,000) went from PS to a Green-related mayor. The left also lost Erstein (11,000). Clearly, the left will be divided in Strasbourg, trying to win the left-wing cantons. Elsewhere, there is only one left-wing ticket in Bas-Rhin, when there is one. In Haut-Rhin, even the biggest cities are right-wing, with Mulhouse (110,000) and Colmar (67,000). In 2014, the left lost Guebwiller (12,000), Thann (8,000) and Ingersheim (5,000), but won Soultz (7,000) and Lutterbach (6,000) with a new Green mayor. In 2015, the left only managed to keep one canton, Wittenheim, the biggest left-wing city. The left wasn't too far off in Mulhouse 1 and 2, and in Kingersheim and Saint-Marie-aux-Mines. In 2020, the left in Haut-Rhin didn't lose more. They won Saint-Marie-aux-Mines. Wittenheim became the biggest city controled by the left -excluding ecologists. In 2021, the left is united in Haut-Rhin except...where there are incumbents ! In Wittenheim, the incumbent councillors are facing an official PS ticket, an unserland ticket and a RN one.
- Rhône (69) from 28/26 with the Lyon urban area which "seceded" and created an independent metropolitan area elected at the same time as the city councils, to 14/4/1(centrist) without the Lyon area and 24/2 in the new boundaries in 2015. In the new, smaller Rhône département, the left lost Tarare (11,000) and Chaponost (8,000) in 2014, their two biggest cities, and Lentilly (5,000), only keeping L'Arbresle (6,000) above 5,000 inhabitants. In the Départementales, the left won the L'Arbresle canton which is more in line with the previous canton of Saint-Laurent-de-Chamousset. Elsewhere, they didn't get close to anything. In 2020, the left won the new city of Val-d'Oingt (4,000) and kept L'Arbresle. The left fields one ticket in each canton, but they really don't have much to hope for, except in Val-d'Oingt canton where the new mayor is standing for the Greens. The incumbents are also on two tickets, one a LR ticket and one a RN ticket.
- Yvelines (78) from 28/11 to 42/0; west of Paris, it should always mean for anyone trying to understand french politics: right-wing. There are still a few cities which resemble the usual "banlieues". The left still lost in 2014 Poissy (38,000), Conflans-Sainte-Honorine (36,000) where Samuel Paty's middle-school was situated, Mantes-la-Ville (20,000) to FN in a four-way race with FN getting 30%, two left-wing lists at 29 and 28% and a right-wing list at 12%. They also lost Achères (20,000), Maurepas (19,000), Carrières-sous-Poissy (15,000), Bois-d'Arcy (14,000), Vernouillet (9,000), Meulan-en-Yvelines (9,000), Les Essarts-le-Roi (6,000) and Rosny-sur-Seine (6,000). In the 2015 départementales, the left lost every cantons, quite the performance. They had 11 seats but didn't even managed to keep one. Only in Les Mureaux, eliminated with 45% in three tickets and Trappes, 53/47 on the second round, were they relatively close. In 2020, the left managed to take back Carrières-sous-Poissy, Andrésy (13,000), Beynes (8,000) but lost Le Perray-en-Yvelines (7,000), La Verrière (7,000) and Saint-Arnoult-en-Yvelines (6,000). RN lost Mantes-la-Ville to a centrist list supported by the right, the two left-wing lists getting 33% on the first round but withdrawing to allow the center-right to win against the incumbent RN. LREM did ok (compared to the rest of France) with wins in Houilles (33,000), Le Vésinet (16,000), Verneuil-sur-Seine (16,000), Le Mesnil-Saint-Denis (7,000) and Les Essarts-le-Roi. Modem took Le Chesnay-Rocquencourt (31,000) and Le Port-Marly (6,000), also getting the succession of LREM mayor in Villepreux (11,000). In Trappes, the new mayor Ali Rabeh (hamonist) might face a by-election, as the election was canceled. For 2021, the left is highly divided where they could get a victory, so it seems quite unlikely that they will.
- Var (83) from 32/10/1(FN) to 40/0/6(FN). In 2014, the left lost Brignoles (16,000) and Le Pradet (11,000) to UMP, and Le Luc (10,000) to FN. FN also took Fréjus (52,000) and Cogolin (11,000). The left remained in control of only one city above 10,000: La Seyne-sur-Mer (63,000, second most populated). In 2015, FN had one canton, Brignoles, won in 2011 for 5 votes, lost in a by-election in 2012 for 13 votes and won again in yet another by-election in 2013, more clearly for 730 votes. The left failed to qualify in a few cantons they had incumbents: Saint-Maximin-la-Sainte-Baume (36% with three tickets) and Flayosc (30% in two tickets) ; the left failed against FN in Garéoult (48/52) and La Seyne-sur-Mer-1 (47/53). FN won also Fréjus against the right but lost Brignoles. In 2020, the left lost La Seyne-sur-Mer but won Saint-Maximin-la-Sainte-Baume (16,000), Cuers (11,000) and Le Beausset (10,000). RN kept Fréjus but lost Le Luc, while the FN mayor of Cogolin left the party in 2017 and has said good things about Macron. He was reelected in 2020. The new mayor of Maximin is conducting an independent ticket in his canton with two independent mayors. They are facing a centrist ticket, a Green ticket, a RN ticket and the incumbents right-wing. 4 FN elected councillors are now independents in Fréjus and La Seyne.
- Vendée (85) from 26/5 to 32/2 in 2015. Quite the right-wing rural département, its right-wing origins clearly coming from the way it was the core opposition to the french revolution (and was quelled accordingly). In 2014, the left lost the main city, La Roche-sur-Yon (53,000) which was left-wing since 1977, Fontenay-le-Comte (14,000) and Saint-Hilaire-de-Riez (11,000). The left took Pouzauges (6,000). In 2015, the left still managed to keep one of the two La Roche-sur-Yon canton but lost everything else. In 2020, the left took back Saint-Hilaire-de-Riez but lost Aubigny-Les Clouzeaux (7,000). It probably won't be enough to take de Saint-Hilaire canton. The left will still have trouble keeping their canton in La Roche-sur-Yon, alhtough at least there's only one ticket.
- Vienne (86) from 21/17 to 30/8 in 2015; a rural right-wing département with quite a few left-wing cities. It birthed a few important politicians like René Monory, president of the Senate (1992-1998), Edith Cresson, first French female PM in 1992 and Jean-Pierre Raffarin, PM in 2002. The left came quite close in 2011 of flipping the département. In 2008 they lost control of the second most populous city, Châtellerault (32,000), and in 2014 they managed to keep control of the first and third, Poitiers (88,000) and Buxerolles (10,000). The left lost Neuville-de-Poitou (5,000). In 2015, at the départementales, the left disappeared of rural Vienne and only managed to keep four of the five Poitiers cantons (they had six of the seven previous ones). It was relatively close in Chasseneuil-du-Poitou (51/49), Lusignan (52/48), Lussac-les-Châteaux (53/47), Vivonne (53/47). In 2020, the big surprise of the elections, the Green Moncond'huy won Poitiers from PS, while the left lost Buxerolles and Vouneuil-sous-Biard (6,000) and gained Montmorillon (6,000). I'm not sure the recent "coups d'éclat" of the Greens mayors (and Moncond'huy) would really appeal in rural Vienne, and I don't see how the left could flip the rural seats. In Poitiers, it will be another war of the left, with the right being quite absent.
- Vosges (88) from 21/10 to 30/4 in 2015. A rural département with low mountains. In 2014, the left lost Saint-Dié-des-Vosges (21,000), Mirecourt (6,000), Rambervillers (6,000), Charmes (5,000) and La Bresse (4,000). The right lost Remiremont (8,000) to an independent but won it back in a by-election in 2016. The left was eliminated in Gérardmer despite getting 44% with three tickets. The election was canceled and the left won in 2016. An interesting thing, the right, for once, lost Bruyères because of their division. The right got 36% in two tickets and the left qualified because their division was less equal. They won against FN. The left was very far off everywhere else. In 2020, the left lost Raon-l'Etape (6,000). The right is less divided in Bruyères and should be able to flip it, but they are divided in Charmes as the two incumbents are on two different tickets. With a third right-wing ticket, the left could qualify against RN. In Gérardmer, the two left-wing incumbents are fighting a communist, a right-wing and a RN ticket. In Raon-l'Etape, despite taking the city, the right doesn't present a ticket and the incumbents will be facing a communist and a RN ticket.
- Yonne (89) from 27/15 to 34/6/2(FN); a rural département quite close to the parisian region, the rural parts are very right-wing but the cities are quite left-wing. Before the municipales of 2014, the left controled all seven of the cities above 5,000 inhabitants. They lost Sens (25,000, 2nd), Migennes (7,000, 5th) and Tonnerre (5,000, 7th). The redrawing really didn't help and the left lost a lot of councillors. They only managed to take one of the four Auxerre seats, Joigny and Vincelles. Despite keeping the city, they lost Avallon to the right and Villeneuve-sur-Yonne to FN. In 2020, the left lost Auxerre (34,000 1st) and Villeneuve-sur-Yonne (5,000 6th) and Avallon mayor became LREM and was reelected. PS now only controls Joigny (10,000) in the big cities. It's only the Joigny incumbents that stayed faithful to the left, the others going to Modem or LREM. Clearly, if the left managed to keep Joigny, it will be both a good result and quite representative of the state of the département.
- Hauts-de-Seine (92) from 29/16 to 38/8; west of Paris, home of the wealthiest cities in France but also of some working class strongholds like Nanterre, Bagneux, Malakoff, where you still see streets with the names of colourful characters (there was an avenue Joseph-Staline in Nanterre that was renamed avenue Vladimir-Ilitch-Lénine in 1962). In 2014, PS lost Colombes (85,000), Asnières-sur-Seine (84,000), Clamart (53,000) and Fontenay-aux-Roses (23,000). In the 2015 départementales, the left only managed to keep four cantons, three communists with Nanterre-1, Gennevilliers and Bagneux, and one socialist as the Malakoff canton that only included the center-right city grew and added communist Montrouge. Blue + Red made it Pink. A few months after that, there was a by-election in 2015 in Clichy and PS lost the city after the canton that only includes the city. In 2020, Colombes was won by Greens and Châtillon (37,000) by PS. For 2021, if you add the municipales results, the Châtillon canton could go left (the new PS mayor won by 1,200 votes and the Fontenay-aux-Roses UDI incumbent won by only 300), as well as Colombes-1, which includes most of Colombes city (Colombes-2 is mostly the two right-wing cities Garenne-Colombes and Bois-Colombes). Elsewhere there shouldn't be any change.
- Val-d'Oise (95) from 21/18 to 32/10; part of the parisian banlieues, north of Paris, Val-d'Oise is a bit more rural as it's part of the "Grande couronne", but less so than Yvelines, Essonne and Seine-et-Marne. In 2014, PS and the left lost Argenteuil (104,000), Taverny (26,000), Eaubonne (24,000), Montmorency (21,000), Eragny (17,000), Jouy-le-Moutier (16,000), Méry-sur-Oise (9,000), Beaumont-sur-Oise (9,000) and Auvers-sur-Oise (7,000). The left lost the département in 2011 (the only one that year) and lost a lot of cantons in 2015. Despite the loss in 2014, the left won two of the three Argenteuil cantons, as one of them includes communist Bezons (28,000). but lost the two Cergy cantons despite keeping the city, as they include Osny, Eragny and Jouy-le-Moutier. The left lost Goussainville as it was added a few smaller right-wing cities: the left didn't qualify with 34%, as in Herblay where the left did 38% but failed to qualify, and Saint-Ouen-l'Aumône (44%), Taverny (41%), Garges-lès-Gonesse (41%), Fosses (36%), Deuil-la-Barre (37%). In 2020, Goussainville was lost by the left to a known islamist activist. Bezons was lost by PCF to a PS-LREM alliance, while Eaubonne (25,000) and Beaumont-sur-Oise was lost by the right to the left. It will be quite hard for the left to win anything in 2021 as its divisions will create difficulties.
Next up: the last départements, left-wing that will stay that way. Then I'll do some predictions.
|
|
|
|
Post by relique on May 31, 2021 14:14:45 GMT
The last batch of départements, the left-wing départements that should stay that way
- Ariège (09) 19/3 to 16/4/6(left wing opposition); a very left-wing rural département in the Pyrénées, there's a few right-wing cities in the north of the département around Pamiers, the biggest city (15,000, right-wing). In 2014, the right won only one city above 1,000 inhabitants, Saint-Paul-de-Jarrat (1,300). In 2015, the right had three incumbents, one in a very small canton in the heart of the pyrénées, one on the west of the département and one around the right-wing Saverdun. The incumbent on the west managed to win the new canton of Les Portes du Couserans, which merged two cantons, one right-wing and one left-wing with only cities below 1,500 inhabitants. The other right-wing canton was the Saverdun based Les Portes d'Ariège, north of the département. In Pamiers, the right didn't even field candidates and the left won easily against FN and FN allies. In fact, the right was only present in six of the 13 cantons. 3 cantons were won by an independent left-wing "Equipe au Service des Ariègeois" in Foix, Pays d'Olmes and Sabarthès, all three cantons in the south-east. Only the two councillors in Foix remained in the opposition during the entirety of the term. The others joined the PS majority during the term. In 2020, there was a war on the left between PS and Insoumis, as the insoumis managed to win the two constituencies in 2017.In the municipales, insoumis didn't win anything. In fact, a mayor close to Mélenchon was replaced by a socialist deputy mayor against an insoumis list 81/19. In Pamiers, the right-wing mayor André Trigano became LREM and lost the mayorship. A centrist and the LR lists merged and won with 41% against Trigano at 39% and the radical left at 20% (PS withdrew after only 12% on the first round). There were no real change elsewhere, except Saint-Girons where a former PS replaced a PS. In 2021, the left-wing opponents are not candidates in Foix and PS should take back the canton against a PCF-Green ticket, an Insoumis ticket and a Centrist ticket. In Pamiers-1, the two incumbents are in two different tickets, one with PS and one with a close ally to Trigano. Not sure it will help the incumbent as they lost the city. They are facing an Insoumis ticket. In Pamiers-2, Trigano also fielded candidates that will be facing a PS ticket, an Insoumis ticket and a RN ticket. The right-wing new majority didn't field any. In Couserans-Ouest, the PS incumbents are not candidates and it will be a return match after the municipales in Saint-Girons. The new mayor, ex-PS Jean-Noël Vigneau is candidate against two candidates in the socialist list he beat, a communist, an insoumis and a centrist ticket.
- Aude (11) 29/6 to 36/2, east of Ariège, north of the Pyrénées, Aude is a département with a mediterranean coast, with a few well known cities for travellers: Carcassonne, mainly, but also Narbonne, Castelnaudary. It is heavily left-wing, although, of course, more right-wing along the Méditerranée. In 2014, the right won Narbonne (52,000); it had been the first socialist term in 2008 since 1971. They also won Carcassonne which they lost in 2009 in a by-election after the courts canceled the 2008 election. It was right-wing since 1983. The right also won Sigean (5,000) but lost Trèbes (5,000). Despite this, the right only won one canton in 2015 on the mediterranean coast in Sigean. The three Narbonne cantons went deep in more left-wing rural areas, as two Carcassonne cantons. Carcassonne-1 was more urban and it was won by PS by 5 votes in a three-way race against UMP and FN. The right was close in Carcassonne-2 as well, but was eliminated by FN in Carcassonne 3 and in most other cantons where they fielded candidates, as in Narbonne-1. In Narbonne-2 and 3, they qualified and failed a few hundred votes behind in three-way races. The right had two incumbents outside the mediterranean coast in Carcassonne-centre and Belpech in west of the département. In the new Bram canton that included Belpech, the right didn't even field a ticket. In 2020, the right managed to win Lézignan-Corbières (11,000), west of Narbonne but lost Fleury to an independent (4,000). In 2021, the right will try to get more seats. In Carcassonne 1 and 3, the left is united so it might be more difficult as RN will probably be qualified and three-way races will be rare. In Carcassonne-2, there is an insoumis ticket against the incumbent but the right is weaker. There are six PS-RN two way races. out of 19 cantons. In Narbonne, the left is united and there's competition between centrist and right-wing tickets, so it might be difficult for the right to qualify for the second round. They should however keep their canton along the coast. Elsewhere, it might be impossible. The left is more or less united and there will probably be Green councillors as PS left them a few places.
- Dordogne (24) from 40/10 to 38/12; it's a left-wing département east of Bordeaux quite known for welcoming quite of lot of brits. There are still a few right-wing cities, notably on the east of the département. In 2014, the right did quite good, flipping the two biggest cities Périgueux (30,000) and Bergerac (28,000), Saint-Astier (5,000), Ribérac (4,000), while they lost to PS Nontron (3,000) and Thiviers (3,000). In the following départementales, the right managed to win the two Périgueux cantons (and they only had one incumbent over the three previous cantons). The right kept one of the two cantons, the more urban one. They also won three more rural cantons, Haut-Périgord noir for 19 votes, Saint-Astier for 59 votes and Pays de Montaigne et Gurson a bit more significantly. In 2020, after a first round with 8 lists between 6 and 19%, the left managed to win back Périgueux. The LR incumbent was at 19%, 31% in the second round, PS Labails was at 17% and merged with left-wing Reys at 12% and Greens at 7%, and they won with 41%; Patrick Palem, centrist at 15% merged with former PS mayor Moyrand at 14%, independent Rouquié at 9% and right-wing Dartencet at 6%, they failed with only 29% on the second round. The right won Coulounieix-Chamiers (8,000). There were quite a few changes in smaller cities with independents that took quite a lot of left-wing cities. However, the right didn't do so good in the 2020 senate elections. In 2014, their two candidates for the two seats got 39 and 37% while the two PS incumbents got 47 and 45%, two PCF candidates 11 and 9%, Greens 4 and 3% and FN 2%. The two PS candidates won in the second round with 55,5%, UMP getting 42 and 41%. In 2020, there was a Modem and a UDI candidates, they got 33 and 23%. The left went into alliance and PS got 50,4% and PCF 42%. An independent left-wing got 13%, Greens 7 and 5% and RN 4%. On the second round, PCF won with 49% against Modem at 47% and RN 4%. Despite this victorious alliance in the senate election (it was in exchange for PCF support in other départements), the left is divided in Dordogne. It could prove an opportunity for the right but they are also divided. In Saint-Astier, their incumbent canton, they didn't even present a ticket, and three left-wing tickets will face RN. In Sarlat-la-Canéda, the right-wing mayor of the main city (9,000) faced a dissident right-wing list in municipales and is now an independent, and he supports the PS ticket which includes his first deputy mayor. The two Périgueux cantons will be hard to defend for the right. There won't be any RN candidates so the second round will most probably be left vs right. In Haut-Périgord noir, the left is united with a PS-PCF ticket and they will pose a greater challenge to the right-wing incumbents. Brantôme is a good shot for the right as they kept the main city and it was only 123 votes. Finally, in Bergerac 1, there are three left-wing tickets and two right-wing, so who knows what can happen ?
- Haute-Garonne (31) from 47/6 to 46/8 in 2015; heavily left-wing in the Pyrénées and around Toulouse, the main city Toulouse (450,000) is known as the french (and maybe european) center of aviation industries, and it has become reasonably faithful to the right since flipping in 1971. It was won in 2008 by PS but the right managed to take it back in 2014. The right also took Cugnaux (16,000), Balma (14,000), Saint-Orens-de-Gameville (11,000) and Auterive (9,000), all in the Toulouse immediate region. The left took L'Union (12,000) for the first time since the second world war. In 2015, the right had still incumbents north of the Pyrénées and east of Toulouse. They only kept three cantons in or near Toulouse, Toulouse-4 only in Toulouse, Toulouse-10 also with Balma, and Toulouse-11 with Ramonville, a PS city. The new independent-left mayor of Saint-Gaudens in the Pyrénées, who won the city against PS, an incumbent councillor, ran in a ticket with UDI and won against PS. They are part of the opposition in the council. The right was close in Castanet-Tolosan, only 14 votes short. In 2020, the left was heavily divided and against the Greens the LR mayor managed to win thanks to an appeal to workers in the aviation industry. A few mayors had become LREM, PS mayor of Plaisance-du-Touch (19,000), LR mayors of Balma, Saint-Orens-de-Gameville. All three were reelected. The left won Cugnaux, Castanet-Tolosan (14,000), Pibrac (8,000) but lost Escalquens (7,000), Eaunes (6,000), Fontenilles (6,000). In 2021, there will be division on the left. The right could cease a few opportunities, although it's not sure RN will prevent at least one left-wing ticket to qualify.
- Gers (32) from 26/5 to 22/12 in 2015; a very rural, very left-wing département quite known for its foie gras (the south-west left is sometimes called "gauche cassoulet" or "gauche foie gras"). In 2014, the right managed to win Condom (don't laugh ! it's also called Condom-en-Armagnac, which is a taste I'd be glad to test; if it wasn't enough, Condom's canton if Baïse-Armagnac, and without the trema it could be translated into Shag-Armagnac), seven thousand inhabitants and third most populated city, Vic-Fezensac (4,000) and Riscle (2,000) but lost Cazaubon (2,000). In the départementales, the right did quite good in the north of the département, and only lost in Condom's canton. In 2020, the left took back Condom with an independent list officially but the first two candidates were part of the left-wing opposition elected in the socialist list. Lectoure (4,000) was won by the right, as was Cazaubon. For 2021, the left might have some hope taking a few cantons back. The right doesn't have much hope.
- Gironde (33) from 50/13 to 44/20/2(FN); a bit like Haute-Garonne, a lot of rural parts and cities around Bordeaux are left wing, while the main city has long been right-wing. The right also is powerful around the Bassin d'Arcachon, while FN is powerful in Médoc and in the north of the Département. In 2014, the right won Pessac (59,000, 3rd most populated city), Le Taillan-Médoc (9,000), Coutras (8,000), Artigues-près-Bordeaux (7,000), Saint-Jean-d'Illac (7,000), Carbon-Blanc (7,000), Salles (6,000), Lanton (6,000), Pauillac (5,000) and the Modem won Saint-Médard-en-Jalles (28,000, 6th) from the left. PS won Mios (8,000) from the right. In 2015, the right won the three cantons around the Bassin d'Arcachon, three cantons in the north-west of Bordeaux, Saint-Médard-en-Jalles with a Modem-UDI alliance, two cantons around the estuaire of the Garonne and one canton along the Dordogne. FN won Nord-Médoc for 150 votes in a two-way race against PS. Despite controling the main cities, the right lost 3 Bordeaux cantons, the 2 Pessac ones, Talence and Villenave-d'Ornon in the Bordeaux area. In 2020, the Greens Pierre Hurmic, supported by PS, took Bordeaux (255,000), and the right also lost Saint-Médard-en-Jalles, Artigues-près-Bordeaux, Saint-Jean-d'Illac, Carbon-Blanc, Salles, Arès (6,000), Izon (6,000), Belin-Béliet (6,000) and Bazas (5,000). The right won Martignas-sur-Jalle (7,000). However, the senate elections showed some stability. In 2008, PS got 3 seats with 42% of the votes, UMP 3 seats in two lists with 24 and 19% of the votes. Modem got nothing with 6%, PCF 5%, Greens 4%. In 2014, even though PS was lower at 36% they managed to keep 3 seats, UMP had a unique list with Modem at 48% and kept 3 seats, PCF got 6%, Greens 5%, FN 4% and two right-wing lists 1% each. In 2020, PS got 30% and 2 seats, a center-right list with a former UMP head 2 seats with 24%, Greens 1 seat with 14% and LR 1 seat with 11%, LREM getting 8% and no seat (it was headed by a -former PS- senator), a right-wing list 4%, PCF 3%, FN 2% and insoumis 2%. So Again 3-3. If PS and Greens had been together, however, they would have gotten a fourth seat. In fact, PS could have got a third if they went into alliance with PCF, and LR would have lost its seat. For the 2021 départementales, there's a Greens-PS-PCF alliance in Bordeaux at least, and in a few others, there's only one left-wing ticket. But their divisions could cost some seats in Créon, L'Entre-deux-mers, Landes des Graves, Mérignac-2 and Les Portes du Médoc. The left could try and take some seats, notably the FN seat where the two incumbents are on different tickets.
- Hérault (34) from 43/6 to 36/8/6(FN), a rather left-wing département but with big areas with right-wing votes, specifically on the mediterranean coast. The left has been in control of the big city, Montpellier (265,000), since 1977. In 2014, a dissident PS, Saurel, won it against a PS candidate. He was more center-left and more or less supported Macron (although it was not always the case). The second most populated city, Béziers (71,000) was lost by the right to the far-right Robert Ménard, founder of Reporters Sans Frontière, who became a far-right activist and won the city with the support from FN. The right won Vias (5,000). In 2015, Ménard managed to win the three new Béziers cantons for his allies, while the neighbouring Agde along the coast was kept by the right. The right also managed to win two cantons in the greater agglomeration of Montpellier, thanks to the division of the left in Maguio and Pignan. They also won Saint-Gély-du-Fesc from the Greens by 270 votes. Of the 5 Montpellier cantons, the Saurel team managed to win 4 while PS retained one with Michaël Delafosse. PS and allies won everywhere else, while PCF won the new unique Sète canton (Sète was once a communist city). In 2020, the Montpellier municipales were probably the most messy elections. There were fourteen lists. The Greens held a primary but the party machine was not happy with the winner, Clothilde Ollier, as she seeked an alliance with Insoumis and others. They canceled their support to Ollier while party alumni Roumégas (and loser of the primary) launched his campaign and a third Green was awarded the selection, Coralie Mantion. Mantion got 7,4%, Ollier 7,3% and Roumégas 1,6%. Some Insoumis supported Ollier but others went and Doulain headed a list, she got 9,3%. Two trotskyst lists (LO and POID) got 0,4 and 0,1%. Communists gave their support to PS départemental councillor Michaël Delafosse who got 16,7%. The billionaire owner of the Montpellier rugby club Mohed Altrad headed a list and obtained 13,3%, while a comedian-prankster Rémi Gaillard headed a list called "n'importe qui" (whoever) and got 9,6%. Incumbent Saurel got 19,1% while LREM had their own list and got 6,1%. LR-UDI had a list and obtained 3,8%, a far-right list got 4,8% but RN didn't field a list. For the second round, Ollier, Doulain, Gaillard and Altrad merged to what was probably the most heterogeneous merged list in municipales 2020, with a "dégagiste" list (a list which supported getting rid of the 'elite'). Delafosse merged with the official Greens list and it was therefore quite an uncertain three way race. Delafosse went from 24 (16,7 + 7,4) to 47% on the second round, Saurel from 19 to 35% and Altrad from 39 (13,3 + 9,6 + 9,3 + 7,3) to 18%. Clearly the radical left voters of Doulain and Ollier didn't like the idea of voting for a billionaire and rallied the classical united left list. The right lost Lunel (26,000), Saint-Jean-de-Védas (10,000) and won Le Crès (9,000). A Centrist won Clermont-l'Hérault (9,000) from the left. The Saurel départemental councillors joined the opposition as LREM or centrist councillors. For 2021, they don't have much hope retaining their seats. Delafosse has done some pretty impressive things in the past year, very strong on republican values (laïcité, security, freedom of expression...). He fields candidates in alliance with Greens, although the Greens are so divided that they are facing themselves according to their choice in the municipales. Ménard is officially hoping to conquer more cantons, but that will be hard for him to go beyond Béziers. The right is now absent from the three Béziers cantons and seven left-wing ones outside Montpellier. They should easily keep Agde but are on the defence in the three other cantons.
- Ille-et-Vilaine (35) from 35/18 to 32/22 in 2015, a left-wing département thanks to the Rennes agglomeration, heavily left-wing. On the more rural parts, the right is more powerful on the east, and the left in the west. The right is also stronger along the coast in the north in Saint-Malo and the other cities (which are often the territory of parisians second homes). In 2014, the right won Bruz (17,000), Cesson-Sévigné (15,000), Mordelles (7,000), Noyal-Châtillon-sur-Seiche (6,000), Châteaubourg (6,000) but lost Melesse (6,000), all relatively close to Rennes. In 2015, the redrawing should theoretically have advantaged the left as it's more present in the cities, but the right benefitted both from a correction from the left-wing waves of 2008 and 2011 and the isolation of left-wing seats in right-wing areas. I created a lot of balanced seats. Antrain was won by the right for 22 votes, Saint-Malo-1 was 54/46, Saint-Malo-2 53/47, while the left won Betton 51/49, Bruz 55/45, Janzé by 84 votes, Redon 53/47. In 2020, the right lost Bruz, Chantepie (10,000), Noyal-Châtillon-sur-Seiche and La Chapelle-des-Fougeretz (5,000) to the left, Cesson-Sévigné to the center and Montfort-sur-Meu (7,000) to regionalists but won Vern-sur-Seiche (8,000) and Pleurtuit (7,000). The Greens had hopes in Rennes. The PS incumbent got 33%, the Greens 25% and they merged and obtained 66% on the second round against LREM (14 then 17%) and the right (12 then 17%). For the 2021 départementales, PS and PCF are mostly allied but Greens are not. They will compete in the Rennes cantons which are all controled by socialists. In Val-Couesnon (renamed from Antrain) there is only one left ticket but in other balanced cantons, they are divided.
- Lot (46) from 26/4 to 30/4 in 2015, this rural left-wing département had its socialist majority was weakened when 6 became LREM and 5 of them went into opposition. In 2014, the right won Pradines (4,000) and Bretenoux (1,500) but lost Gramat (4,000). In 2015, the new right-wing mayor of Pradines managed to be elected with a deputy into the Cahors-1 canton. A right-wing incumbent was reelected in the grown canton of Martel. In 2020, the municipales were stable. For the 2021 départementales, the right will lose at least one canton as the incumbents are not running in Martel and there's only one PS-allies ticket. Five other cantons have only left-wing tickets, one also having only one PS-allies ticket. Out of the 11 other cantons, there's Cahors-1 with the incumbents reelected in Pradines (although they are part of the "primary" against Cahors municipale councillors; the ticket ahead will be supported by the département majority in the second round), Luzech and Marches du Sud-Quercy where the left-wing tickets are only facing RN, Puy-l'Evêque and Souillac see LREM incumbents facing a PS-supported ticket, Cahors-2 and Figeac-2 will see both LREM and LR-supported tickets against left-wing tickets but the left should qualify, Causse-et-Bouriane sees a classical left v right two way race, Figeac-1 sees the PS incumbents facing a Insoumis-PCF ticket and a center-right ticket, Gourdon sees a primary between an incumbent LREM-PRG ticket and a left-wing ticket with a RN and a communist ticket and Gramat the PS incumbent is facing LREM, Insoumis and RN tickets.
- Meurthe-et-Moselle (54) from 34/10 to 28/18 in 2015, a département neighbour to Moselle with also part of the Fensch valley north of Meurthe-et-Moselle is west of the "ange" valley and very left-wing, with a communist tradition. Nancy (105,000) the main city is traditionnally right-wing but with more center-right mayors. There's also a right-wing area in the south-east and around Pont-à-Mousson, south of the industrial valley. In 2014, the right won Villers-lès-Nancy (14,000) but lost Longwy (14,000), Maxéville (10,000) and Longuyon (6,000). In the 2015 départementales, the right managed to win every cantons in the south-east around Lunéville despite only controling 4 out of 9 before. The right also managed to get the three cantons east of Nancy despite controling only 1 of the six cantons of the area. Elsewhere, the balance was rather respected. In 2020, Nancy was flipped by PS Klein, president of the départemental council. The right also lost Jarville-la-Malgrange (9,000). For the départementales, it doesn't bode well for the right which will be weaker in Jarville-la-Malgrange, Nord-Toulois and Pont-à-Mousson, especially as the left only fields one ticket in most cantons. Only in Nancy-1 there are two left-wing tickets to try and take the only right-wing canton left in Nancy (it was won 56/44).
- Puy-de-Dôme (63) from 51/10 to 42/20; in this left-wing département that knows a few left-wing rural zones in Combrailles and where the communist leader at the national assembly André Chassaigne is elected, the main city, Clermont-Ferrand (140,000) is left-wing since the 30s. It is known to be reliant on the pneumatic industry with Michelin the historic employer here. There are right-wing areas in the west of the département. The 2014 municipales were a bloodbath for the left after good local elections in 2008 and 2011. The right won Riom (18,000), Issoire (14,000), Beaumont (11,000), Gerzat (10,000), Lempdes (8,000), Romagnat (8,000), Cébazat (8,000), Ambert (7,000), Ceyrat (5,000) while communists took Thiers (11,000) from another left-wing and Courpière (4,000) from UMP. Following this, in the 2015 départementales, while the number of cantons went from 61 to 31, the right kept 10 cantons and the left lost 30 ! The right won Ambert, Issoire, Riom, Cébazat, Beaumont and Aubière where they didn't really have incumbents and won right-wing cantons of Saint-Ours, Orcines, Chamalières and Châtel-Guyon. In 2020, the left managed to keep Clermont-Ferrand but really didn't do good elsewhere. Communists lost again Thiers to a left-wing, Aubière (10,000) to the right. PS only managed to win Saint-Eloy-les-Mines (4,000) to LR. The département is currently headed by a former PS, Gouttebel who turned centrist and is nowadays governing more with the right than with the left. Gouttebel is not running and his followers are in disarray. The left hopes to get back control of the département as, officially, they now control only 31 seats, the centrist Gouttebel 12 seats and the right 19. The 12 Gouttebel seats are six in the three cantons of Aigueperse, Clermont-Ferrand-5 and Les Monts du Livradois where only one incumbent is running in Clermont-5 with Modem against the left, five seats shared with the left in Brassac-les-Mines, Gerzat, Maringues, Les Martres-de-Veyre and Saint-Eloy-les-Mines, one is running in Gerzat in the left-wing ticket, one in Maringues is running as LREM against the left. The twelfth seat is a LREM elected with LR in Issoire and is not running. The left fields only one ticket in 19 cantons, is rather divided in 5 of the 6 Clermont-Ferrand cantons with insoumis (who didn't merge with socialists on the second round) against the united left tickets, which shouldn't have too many consequences. The left has two tickets in Ambert, Brassac-les-Mines, Cournon-d'Auvergne, Gerzat, Martres-de-Veyre, Pont-du-Château and Thiers. In Ambert, the left and the right were so equally divided in 2015 that the two right-wing tickets with 21% each managed to qualify against the two left-wing at 20,5 and 19%. The right is not divided anymore, and one of the ticket is Green so it might be left v right in 2021. Generally speaking, it's not its divisions that should prevent the left from taking back the département.
- Hautes-Pyrénées (65) from 32/2 to 26/8, a very rural left-wing département with a very big tradition from PRG. The big cities are more right-wing, like Tarbes (43,000) and Lourdes (14,000). In 2014, however, the right lost Lourdes to PRG but won Vic-en-Bigorre (5,000). In 2015, the right managed to win two of the three Tarbes cantons which was only fair as they controled none before. They also kept one of the two Lourdes ticket, as before, and won Ossun. The PRG president became MR and in its majority 4 councillors became LREM. In 2020, the right lost Bordères-sur-l'Echez (5,000), and the rest was stable. In 2021, in Les Coteaux, the LREM councillor is in a ticket with the other PRG incumbent, while in Haute-Bigorre the two incumbents (one LREM and one PRG) are on two different tickets. In Tarbes-1, the two LREM incumbents are in a ticket against a PS-PCF ticket. In Ossun, the right-wing incumbents do not run, and there's one RN ticket, one PCF ticket and one independent ticket who supports the départemental majority.
- Haute-Vienne (87) from 37/5 to 26/12/4(left-wing minority) in 2015; a heavily left-wing département, rural and urban there was a surprise of seismic proportions in 2014 when Limoges (140,000), left-wing since before the first world war, was won by the right. They also won Aixe-sur-Vienne (5,000). In the following départementales, the right-wing incumbent of Dorat won Châteauponsac (even though there were two left-wing incumbents in this merged canton), the right kept Couzeix in the Limoges suburbs (but for only 35 votes). Of the new 9 Limoges cantons, the right managed to win 4 despite not having much before. PS was facing a PCF-ADS alliance, ADS being a local radical-left party which came out of PCF and PS in the 1990s. ADS and PCF only managed to win two cantons. In 2014 in the senate elections, PS only managed to reelect one of the two senators, the right-wing UDI managing to take one seat on the second round with 42% of the votes, PS candidates getting 46 and 35%, UMP 25%, ADS 23% and PCF 10%. In 2020, the right managed to keep Limoges quite easily and also won Panazol (11,000) but more or less lost Couzeix (9,000) to a left-right centrist alliance and Bellac (4,000) to the left. In 2020 at the senate elections, the center-right senator was candidate as well as the reelected mayor of Limoges. However, PS managed to win both seats as, in the second round, ADS and PCF withdrew. PS got 51 and 43%, LR mayor of Limoges 40% and incumbent center-right senator 25%. In Couzeix, the new mayor is candidate and the UDI incumbents are not, so that the battle will be between the center and the left. In Limoges, there is one canton where the two right-wing incumbents are on two different tickets, and it was only won by 100 votes in 2015. Limoges-7 was also won by 28 votes so it might be narrow again. They are facing three left-wing tickets.
- Guadeloupe (971) from 29/6/5(left-wing opposition) to 26/4/12(left-wing opposition); as in 2015, the 2021 départementales will be a competition between the left wing FGPS close to PS and their allies and GUSR which was once close to PS but became more close to LREM nowadays. Even though they are in competition, they are also in tickets together in a few cantons. In 2014, UMP lost Saint-Anne (24,000) to PPDG, allied with FGPS, Sainte-Rose (20,000) and Baillif (5,000) to FGPS, but won Vieux-Habitants (8,000) to FGPS. The right also won Bouillante (8,000) and Anse-Bertrand (5,000) to the left. Lamentin was won by FGPS to another left-wing, Petit-Canal by FGPS to PCG (communists) while PCG took Port-Louis from independentists. In 2020, GUSR took Capesterre-Belle-Eau (18,000) and Saint-François (12,000) from the right, but lost Le Gosier (27,000) to the right. GUSR also took Pointe-Noire (6,000) from FGPS and Port-Louis (6,000) from PCG. FGPS took Basse-Terre (10,000) from LR, Gourbeyre (8,000) and Vieux-Habitants (7,000) from the right. Clearly the local politics seem to have been monopolized by the competition between GUSR and FGPS. It will be interesting to see where this goes.
Next up: predictions !
|
|
