|
|
Post by finsobruce on Dec 21, 2020 8:53:57 GMT
Bretagne's strong identity starts after a few drings of mead, and stops when they meet another breton from another part of the region. I don't think anyone from Finistère will feel at ease with someone from Rennes, and even, Finistère Nord and Finistère Sud would probably start fighting like two characters of Astérix & Obélix. (and I say that as a half-breton myself) Yes, they couldn't cut the départements, et that is probably a good thing. Regions, they hesitated. But Ayrault said no to cutting apart Pays-de-la-Loire, and that was indeed the strongest incentive, to unite Nantes to Bretagne. It's been ages since I've had a dring of mead.  |
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,799 
|
Post by john07 on Dec 21, 2020 11:45:25 GMT
Bretagne's strong identity starts after a few drings of mead, and stops when they meet another breton from another part of the region. I don't think anyone from Finistère will feel at ease with someone from Rennes, and even, Finistère Nord and Finistère Sud would probably start fighting like two characters of Astérix & Obélix. (and I say that as a half-breton myself) Yes, they couldn't cut the départements, et that is probably a good thing. Regions, they hesitated. But Ayrault said no to cutting apart Pays-de-la-Loire, and that was indeed the strongest incentive, to unite Nantes to Bretagne. There doesn’t seem as much 44=BZH graffiti in Loire-Atlantique now as there was in the 1980s and 1990s |
|
|
|
Post by relique on Dec 21, 2020 17:12:19 GMT
The elections have officially been postponed to june. It's not yet sure if it will be 13 and 20 june or 20-27. A first batch of regions: In another post a bit later, I'll talk more about the current presidents, the detail of the results of 2015 and who are the prospective candidates for 2021 at the regional level. At the départemental level, I'll do more a bit later.
Region by region, let's review the 2015 results, what happenned during those five years and what can happen in june:
- Ile-de-France (no change), it includes: Paris, Seine-Saint-Denis, Hauts-de-Seine, Val-de-Marne, Val-d'Oise, Seine-et-Marne and Yvelines
The capital region was conquered by the PS Jean-Paul Huchon in 1998, one year after the left came back into government. He was reelected in 2004 and 2010: 49% in 2004 (the PS-Greens united list obtained 32% and merged with PCF at 7%) to only 41% for a merger between UMP (25% in the first round) and UDF (16%) and 10% for Marine Le Pen's FN (12% in the first round); 68% in 2010 (merger between 25% for PS, 17% for Greens, 7% for PCF and Mélenchon's allies) against 32% for Valérie Pécresse united right (28% in the first round). FN didn't qualify (9,3% in the first round).
Valérie Pécresse was once again candidate in 2015 with LR, Modem and UDI. She obtained 30,5% in the first round and 44% in the second. Claude Bartolone, president of the National Assembly and former president of the Seine-Saint-Denis département, was the candidate for PS. He obtained 25% (not such a bad score) for only 8% for the Green's Emmanuelle Cosse (which became minister in 2016 and left the Greens ) and 7% for PCF's Pierre Laurent (national secretary of the PCF until 2018). They merged and obtained 42% in the second round. The FN qualified this time with 18% in the first round and 14% in the second.
The victory for Pécresse was quite close. After the 2017 presidential election (and the Fillon stories), she distanced herself from the LR party and founded "Libres". She officially left in 2019 after the (disastrous) european election. She still has the ambition to be candidate for president of the Republic, so she lobbied (successfully I think) for the regional elections to take place in 2021. A victory in Île-de-France would help her gain legitimacy before the 2022 elections.
Against her, the government has annointed Jean-Michel Blanquer, the education minister (and former governmental staffer for UMP ministers). The left is divided, as always. The Greens, as always, are quite ambitious here and believe they can (finally) take the leadership in the Region. They will present the national secretary, Julien Bayou. The PS, in a movie to save their leadership here, support Audrey Pulvar, a (once talented) 'seen-on-tv' journalist who is now a deputy-mayor of Hidalgo in Paris. The PCF is still heavily divided since their last congress which was lost by incumbent Pierre Laurent to the more "traditional" political line by Fabien Roussel (supported by national assembly group president André Chassaigne). In Île-de-France, the Pierre Laurent line is still dominant and will probably want to support the Insoumis candidate, the MP Clémentine Autain, which was once quite close to PCF (and the FASE, which was a party by former PCF members, especially in Tremblay-en-France, where Autain finally succeeded in 2017 to become MP). There might be some PCF (especially the parisians) supporting Audrey Pulvar.
Two polls in october gave Pécresse 32%, Blanquer 15%, Pulvar (supported by PS and PCF) 12 to 17%, Bayou 11%, RN's Bardella 13 to 16%, Autain (or another, Garrido which was announced will not be selected) 7-8% and Dupont-Aignan's "Debout la France" 5-6%. In a four-way second round, Pécresse would then get 37%, Pulvar (united left) 28-33%, Blanquer 16% and Bardella 14-19%.
- Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, merger of Auvergne and Rhône-Alpes, it includes: Lyon, Rhône, Isère, Ain, Savoie, Haute-Savoie, Loire, Drôme, Ardèche, Puy-de-Dôme, Haute-Loire, Allier and Cantal
The Auvergne region was right-wing until 1977 when the PS got it (until 1986, the regional councils were not directly elected; it included MPs, representatives of départements and big cities) until 1986 when Valery Giscard d'Estaing was candidate and took the region, 5 years after he lost his reelection bid for president. Giscard was beaten in 2004 with only 47% of the votes for 57% for the united left lead by PS Bonte (28% for PS in the first round, 9% for PCF's Chassaigne and 6% for the Greens). The FN didn't qualify. In 2010, Bonte's successor (he died in 2006), René Souchon was reelected with 70% of the votes (28 in the first round for PS, 14% for Chassaigne, 11% for Greens), against UMP's Marleix (the one who was in charge of redistricting for the 2012 legislative elections).
The Rhône-Alpes region was controlled by the UDF until 2004 when PS conquered it. In 1998, Rhône-Alpes were part of the regions where UDF incumbents or candidates went into an alliance with FN to be reelected against the left. Before 2004, the election was only in one round (and at the département level), without any 25% bonus, so there were very few clear majorities when FN got better results. Charles Millon, president since 1988, was reelected president by the FN's regional councillors. His election was unvalidated by the "Conseil d'Etat" and the left voted for another right-wing regional councillor, Anne-Marie Comparini with some right-wing regional councillors to see Millon's defeat. In a few regions, the right-wing presidents which were elected by FN votes resigned (and then were reelected with the left-wing votes), encouraged by Chirac's stance against FN.
In 2004, Jean-Jacques Queyranne for PS got 47% in the second round after a merger with Greens at 10% in the first run (he got 32% in a list with PCF). Comparini got 31% in the first round and 38% in the second, while FN got 18 and then 15%. Queyranne was reelected with 51% in 2010 (after obtaining 25% in the first, merging with the Greens at 18% and PCF at 6%), Françoise Grossetête obtaining 26% and then 34% for the united right and FN 14 and then 15%.
In 2015, Queyranne was the candidate for PS and obtained 24% in the big Region, merging with Greens at 7% and PCF at 6%. Laurent Wauquiez, former minister of Sarkozy and from the Haute-Loire département in Auvergne obtained 32% in the first round and conquered the Region with 41% in the second, the left obtaining 37%. FN got 26 and then 23%. Wauquiez became president of the LR party in 2017. After the very low vote in the european election, he resigned in 2019. He is also a prospective candidate for the presidential election, and will try to create some momentum with a victory in the regional election.
Against him, the PS is fielding former education minister Najat Vallaud-Belkacem. The Greens will probably field a (very unknown) municipal councillor of Annecy, Fabienne Grébert (she was the candidate of the internal opponents to Eric Piolle, the mayor of Grenoble who wishes to be the Greens' candidate in 2022). LREM once thought of fielding the health minister Olivier Véran, but he declined. There is a rumour that Michel Barnier, that you british must know a lot, was a name flying around in the government circles. It might also be a quite unknown MP from Ain, Olga Givernet or MP from Drôme Célia de Lavergne. PCF will possibly join the PS list. The RN will probably field a former mélenchoniste regional councillor, Andrea Kotarac.
There was a poll in november with Wauquiez at 31%, Kotarac at 20%, Lavergne at 13-14%, Vallaud-Belkacem (with PCF) at 12%, Grébert at 12% and Insoumis at 7%. For the second round, they only tested Grébert for the united list. She'd obtain 26% in a four-way and 32% in a three-way without LREM, Wauquiez getting 36 or 43% and Kotarac 23 or 25%, LREM obtaining 15% in a second round in a four-way.
- Hauts-de-France, merger of Nord-Pas de Calais and Picardie, it includes: Nord, Pas-de-Calais, Somme, Aisne and Oise
The Nord-Pas de Calais region has always been left-wing. In 1992, however, an incredible mess lead to the first (and only) Green regional president, Marie-Christine Blandin. The Greens only got 8 seats for 42 for PS and PCF (the total being 113 seats). The left went into alliance with centrist-ecologist Génération Ecologie and their 6 seats and gave the presidency to Blandin between 1992 and 1998. In 1998, the PS retook the presidency with Michel Delebarre who became mayor of Dunkerque in 2001 and left the presidency to Daniel Percheron. Percheron was reelected in 2004 with 52% (after 30% in the first round, merging with PCF's Bocquet at 11% and Greens Caron at 6%) against Delevoye (UMP) at 28% (merger between UMP at 17% and UDF Létard at 8%). FN got 18% in the first round and 20% in the second. In 2010, Percheron got 52% in the second round (PS 29%, PCF 11% and Greens 10%) for 26% for Létard (united right, 19% in the first round) and 22% for Marine Le Pen who switched regions (18% in the first round).
Picardie region was first rather right-wing but was controlled by PCF and then PS between 1980 and 1985. It was taken back by UDF between 1985 and 2004. In 1998, the left was ahead with 26 seats (over 57) but incumbent UDF Charles Baur went into alliance with FN to be reelected. In 2004, he was not candidate. Gilles de Robien, minister at the time, was candidate for UDF and UMP. He obtained 32% in the first round and 36% in the second, beaten by PS Gewerc at 27% in the first round (with Greens) and 46% in the second, in alliance with PCF's Gremetz (11% in the first round). FN got 23 and then 19%. In 2010, Gewerc was reelected with 48% (after a merger between 27% PS and 10% Greens, the PCF Gremetz not merging at 6%, their was another more Mélenchon-supported list at 5%) against UMP's Cayeux at 32% (26% in the first round) and FN at 19% (16% in the first round).
In 2015, both Percheron and Gewerc retired, and Pierre de Saintignon, first vice-president of Percheron and first-deputy mayor of Martine Aubry in Lille, was candidate for PS. A lot of people (including myself) have said at the time that the only one that could have kept the Region was Martine Aubry herself. But she had been defeated in the PS primary in 2011 and didn't want to chance another defeat. Saintignon did honourably with 18%. The Greens went into alliance with Mélenchon-supporters with Sandrine Rousseau, former vice-president of the Region and only got 4,5% of the votes, while PCF's Roussel (who became national secretary later) 5,5%. Saintignon was pressured by the national PS (and Martine Aubry who took the decision herself) to withdraw from the second round (although my political party had made him sign a pledge not to drop out, a condition of our support). So the second round was a two-way race between Marine Le Pen who got 42% in the first round and finally 42% in the second, and Xavier Bertrand, former minister of Sarkozy (and mayor of Aisne's Saint-Quentin) 25% in the first round and 58% in the second. The incumbent left (although on three lists) was indeed above Bertrand if you added their scores... A united list may have been above Bertrand and got a "useful vote" to beat Le Pen...
Now, Xavier Bertrand got away from LR (like Pécresse) and is already talking about a presidential run. He also needs a big victory to gather momentum. He will likely face Patrick Kanner for PS (and probably PCF), former minister, former president of the Nord Département and now president of the PS grouping in the senate, Karima Delli for Greens (an MEP) and Laurent Pietraszewski (member of government in charge of pensions) for LREM. Marine Le Pen will not be candidate, and it will probably be Sébastien Chenu, MP in the Denain constituency. He's contested internally, after his severe defeat at the Denain municipal election (there was a lot of talk about his probably victory), and I think Philippe Eymery from Dunkerque might contest the selection.
In a november poll, Bertrand got 33-34%, Chenu 29%. Pietraszewski only 9%, Delli 9%, Kanner 8% and Roussel (PCF, he will probably be with Kanner in the end) 3,5-4%. Insoumis MP Bernalicis at 5,5-6% (he wants to be allied with Delli). They didn't test a simple two-way round (they might have not thought the left would not qualify), so a three-round got Bertrand 42%, Chenu 34% and Delli/Kanner 24%. A four-way with LREM's Pietraszewski at 9% got Bertrand down at 37%, Delli/Kanner at 21% and Chenu at 33%.
Knowing a bit the candidates, Kanner won't withdraw this time. The fact that Bertrand will probably be ahead of Chenu will stop any pressure from national PS, and nowadays, anyway, national PS doesn't have that much influence.
- Grand-Est, merger of Lorraine, Champagnes-Ardennes and Alsace, it includes: Ardennes, Aube, Marne, Haute-Marne, Meuse, Meurthe-et-Moselle, Moselle, Vosges, Haut-Rhin and Bas-Rhin
The Grand-Est new region was one of the few that included an incumbent right-wing president. Alsace is indeed quite right-wing (with a relatively big centrist-green vote, that was mobilized by Antoine Waechter for example). The UDF Adrien Zeller didn't need the FN votes to be reelected in 1998 (the left-wing councillors abstaining from the vote). In 2004, he obtained (in an alliance with UMP) 34% of the votes on the first round and 43 on the second. Jacques Bigot for PS (with the Greens) got 20 and then 34%. FN with one of the Binder spouse got 19 and then 22%. There was a regionalist "Alsace d'abord" list from the far-right Spieler which got 9% but didn't merge with anyone, while Waechter with his small ecologist party MEI got 7%. The MRC (close to Chevènement) lead a list with PCF and PRG but only got 4% and couldn't merge with the left. Zeller died in 2009 and the region was presided by André Reichardt, but it's Philippe Richert which headed the lists in the 2010 election. He was elected with 35% on the first round and 46 on the second. Bigot, this time in alliance with MRC and PRG got 19% while Greens Fernique got 16%. They merged and obtained 39% on the second round. FN's Binder got 13 and then 15% while Alsace D'abord only got 4,98%. There was a radical left list below 2%.
The Lorraine region was controlled by the right until 2004. In 1998, Gérard Longuet (UDF then later UMP) didn't benefit from the FN votes. In 2004, he was beaten by Jean-Pierre Masseret for the PS. Masseret got 29% with PCF and Greens on the first round and 48% in the second round while Longuet got 22% in the first round, merged with Nathalie Griesbeck for UDF, and got 34% on the second round. FN got 18 then 17%. There was a PRG-MRC list at less than 5%. Masseret was reelected in 2010, obtaining 34% in the first round with PCF and MRC and merging with the Greens at 9%, and obtaining 50% on the second round. Laurent Hénard (mayor of Nancy between 2014 and 2020) got 24% for the right on the first round and 32% on the second. FN got 15 and then 18%.
Champagnes-Ardennes also only was conquered in 2004. It was right-wing before that. In 1998, the RPR president didn't go into alliance with FN to be elected. In 2004, the incumbent UMP Jean-Claude Etienne got 27% and merged with Charles de Courson, UDF with 11% and obtained 40% on the second round. Jean-Claude Bachy for PS got 28% in a united left list on the first round (without the Greens), didn't merge with the Greens at 8% and got elected with 42%. FN got 20 and then 18%. In 2010, Bachy was reelected with 31% on the first round in the same alliance but this time merged with Greens at 8%, they got 44% on the second round. Warsmann for the right got 32 and then 39%, while FN got 16 and then 17%.
In 2015, Jean-Pierre Masseret for PS was against Philippe Richert for UMP. It was the only battle between two incumbents. Richert got 26% for 36% for Florian Philippot, 1st VP for Le Pen (now with his own very very small party, Les Patriotes). Masseret only got 16% and was pressured into withdrawing. Greens got 7% and PCF-MRC 3%. Masseret decided not to withdraw (I remember people in my region where PS withdrew that printed Masseret ballots to vote for him in their own region) and got 16% in the second round. Richert got 48% and was elected at the head of the big region while Philippot stayed at 36%. Richert was once against the big Region but became favourable to it once elected president. He retired from politics entirely in 2017 after being called "fossoyeur" of Alsace. Jean Rottner, mayor of Mulhouse is elected president in 2017.
In 2021, the incumbent Jean Rottner should be candidate. For the left, it's a bit of a mess. The Greens have selected Eliane Romani, a former deputy-mayor of Thionville in Moselle. The rest of the left seems to be currently coalescing around former PS culture minister Aurélie Filipetti, who left the government with Montebourg (who she was a companion at some point) and Hamon, was also at some point member of Générations, Hamon's party, but maybe not anymore. LREM is thinking about maybe supporting the incumbent Rottner. Bérangère Abba, junior minister for biodiversity was designated as their "chef de file", but might try and be allied with Rottner. The RN has been weakened by the departure of Philippot, but also of the Binder spouses in Alsace some time ago. It's not sure who they will select, but they should do a decent score.
- Occitanie, merger of Midi-Pyrénées and Languedoc-Roussillon, it includes: Haute-Garonne, Gers, Tarn, Tarn-et-Garonne, Aude, Aveyron, Lot, Hautes-Pyrénées, Lozère, Hérault, Pyrénées-Orientales and Gard
The Midi-Pyrénées region was socialist until the election of 1986 when Dominique Baudis, mayor of Toulouse, took the region. He left it to Marc Censi in 1988. In 1998, Censi was first elected president with the votes of the FN councillors but resigned. He didn't propose his name after that and it's the socialist Martin Malvy who was then elected president. Malvy was reelected in 2004 with 41 on the first and 58% on the second round, without a merger with the Greens at 8%. UMP Godfrain got 19% and UDF Valdiguié 10%. They merged and got 30% on the second round. FN's Louis Aliot got 12% on the first and the second round. In 2010, Malvy got 41% on the first round and merged with Greens' Onesta at 13% and communists and pro-Mélenchon at 7%. They got 68% in the second round (the best score I think in metropolitan France). Brigitte Barèges (mayor of Montauban) got 22 and then 32% for the right, while FN was eliminated with 9%.
Languedoc-Roussilon was also socialist as long as there were no direct election. In 1986, it was won by UDF Jacques Blanc from Lozère. He went into alliance with FN to keep the region in 1998. He became UMP and was beaten in 2004 by PS Montpellier mayor Georges Frêche. Frêche got 36% on the first round in an alliance with Greens and PCF, and 51% on the second round. Blanc got 24% and merged with UDF at 6% to win 33% of the votes on the second round. One of the Jamet brother for FN got 17 and then 16%. In 2010, Frêche was not supported by PS which tried to beat him. They selected Hélène Mandroux, the mayor of Montpellier Frêche chose to succeed him (his former first deputy-mayor). Mandroux got less than 8%, while a list close to Mélenchon close to 9 and Greens 9%. Frêche got 34% and didn't merge with any other list. He obtained 54% on the second round against Raymond Couderc for the right (20 then 26%) and France Jamet (daughter of one of the brother) for FN 13 and then 19%. Frêche died seven months after his reelection and was succeeded by Christian Bourquin, who died in 2014 and then Damien Alary. Alary was reinstated to PS.
In 2015, Alary accepted to support PS Carole Delga, which was a junior minister at the time. She obtained 24% and merged with Onesta (Greens + PCF and people close to Mélenchon) at 10%. They obtained 45% on the second round, beating Louis Aliot for FN (32 and 34%) and Dominique Reynié (a political science professor from sciences po, quite a bad candidate) for UMP 19 and 21%. Carole Delga has become better known now and in a very implausible victory of PS in the presidential election could be, in my opinion, tapped for the PM job (I don't think she'll try to run for president).
Delga will be candidate in 2021. She might be supported by PCF. The Green Antoine Maurice, who failed to be elected mayor of Toulouse, will be candidate against her. Apparently, he wants revenge from the way some in the PS didn't fully support him on the second round. Aliot for FN won Perpignan in 2020 while Robert Ménard (former president of "Reporters sans frontière", now close to FN) kept Béziers. The candidate for RN might be Julian Sanchez, mayor of Beaucaire. Ménard could, as well, and maybe rally some of LR local elected officials. LR should sens Arnaud Viala or Aurélie Pradié while LREM might support (former LR) mayor of Balma Vincent Terrail Noves.
There was a poll in september where Delga got 22-23% with PCF and 30% with the Greens as well, while the Greens Cros would get 12%. Insoumis Bompard would get about 9%, Denormandie (LREM junior minister) 11-13% and Pradié 14%. Viala, in an alliance between LR and LREM would get 19%. Sanchez would get 25-26%. On the second round, Delga would get 41-43, Pradié 27 or Viala 24 and Sanchez 32-33.
- Normandie, merger of Haute-Normandie and Basse-Normandie, it inclued: Seine-Maritime, Eure, Calvados, Manche and Orne
Haute-Normandie is mostly dominated by Seine-Maritime with Rouen and Le Havre. It has been socialist between 1981 and 1982 but right-wing before and after that. The right-wing mayor of Le Havre (he conquered the city after 50 years of communism) Antoine Rufenacht became president between 1992 and 1998. His predecessor Roger Fossé was elected with FN votes in 1986 in exchange for a vice-presidency. Rufenacht was also elected with FN votes but didn't resign because if the FN hadn't voted for him, he's have been with the same number of votes as PS Laurent Fabius and would have been elected because older than Fabius. In 1998, Jean-Paul Gauzès, RPR, was elected with FN votes but resigned, and finally Alain Le Vern for PS was elected. Alain Le Vern was reelected in 2004 with 53% of the votes on the second round (39% on the first with Greens and PCF) against Antoine Rufenacht at 33% (21% on the first, he merged with Hervé Morin, UDF at 13%). FN got 16 and then 15%. In 2010, Le Vern got 55% on the second round (35% on the first, he merged with Greens at 9% and PCF at 8%), Bruno Le Maire for UMP at 31% (25% on the first round) and 14% for FN Nicolas Bay (12% on the first round). Le Vern left politics in 2013 and was replaced by Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol Basse-Normandie was more reliably right-wing until 2004. René Garrec was president for UDF between 1986 to 2004, and was candidate for UMP in 2004. He was beaten with only 40% on the second round (29% on the first, he merged with UDF at 9%). Philippe Duron was elected for the PS, allied with PCF and MRC on the first round with 24%, he merged with PRG Tourret (supported by Greens) at 8%. They obtained 46% on the second round, while FN got 14% on both rounds. In 2008, Philippe Duron chose to run for the Caen mayorship and, when elected left the presidency of the Region to PS Laurent Beauvais. Beauvais was reelected in 2010 with 57% of the vote (33% on the first round with PCF and MRC, he merged with Greens at 12%) against UMP Le Grand at 43% (28% on the first round). FN got less than 9% and didn't qualify.
In 2015, it's Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol who lead the PS list. He got 24% and merged with PCF Jumel at 7% and Greens at 6%. It was not enough and failed to keep the big Region socialist with 36.08% of the votes against Hervé Morin, former UDF (he left Bayrou to support Sarkozy in the 2007 second round and founded "Nouveau Centre", and then UDI, defence minister for Sarkozy, he famously said "I who saw in Normandy the landing of the allies, we lived through more difficult periods than nowadays", and was born in 1961) UDI, supported by LR, 28% on the first round and 36.43% on the second. Nicolas Bay for FN got 28% on the first round and 27.5% on the second. Mayer-Rossignol became mayor of Rouen in 2020 and said he would not be candidate for the next regional election.
In 2021, Morin will be candidate. Morin left UDI and UDI selected Nathalie Goulet in Normandie and she will lead a list (there are some history there). LR should support Morin. LREM is very hesitant. Greens have designated Laetitia Sanchez. PS have not selected a candidate yet. It might be Christophe Bouillon, who chose not to stay an MP and become mayor of Barentin (we talked about it in the by-election thread), or Benoît Arrivé, mayor of Cherbourg (he succeeded Bernard Cazeneuve, former PM, who was once thought to try and be elected president of Normandie so gain momentum for the 2022 election; he seems to have abandoned his ambitions for 2022), or Laurent Beauvais, former president of Basse Normandie...
- Bretagne (no change), it includes: Finistère, Morbihan, Côtes-d'Armor and Ille-et-Vilaine
A reliable center-right Region, it has more and more been trending to the center-left. It was with MRP and UDF until 1986, when RPR got the Region from the UDF. RPR Josselin de Rohan didn't need the FN in 1998 to be elected president. However, he was beaten in 2004 by Jean-Yves Le Drian, PS, 59/41. Le Drian obtained 38% on the first round with PCF and merged with the Greens at less than 10%. de Rohan got 26% on the first round and merged with UDF Joncour at 11%. FN failed to qualify at 8%. In 2010, Le Drian didn't merge with the Greens. He obtained 37 and then 50%, UMP Malgorn 24 and 32%, Greens' Hascoët 12 and 17%. FN failed again at 7%. Now Modem Joncour got 5% but didn't merge, while left-wing mayor of Carhaix, Christian Troadec supported by Parti Breton got just less than 5%, some communists (others were with Le Drian) at 3,5%.
In 2015, Le Drian was defence minister (and the only one in Hollande's governments to keep his presidency of a local collectivity). He was reelected with 51% of the vote, from 35% on the first round. Greens got 6,7% and Troadec 6,71% and some communists 3,7% but none merged with Le Drian. Marc Le Fur for LR and UDI got 23 and 30%, while FN got 18 and 19%. In 2017, Le Drian was one of the two Hollande ministers being kept by Macron (although as foreign minister now). He then left the presidency of the regional council to his first VP, Loïg Chesnais-Girard, still PS.
For 2021, Chesnais-Girard will be candidate for PS. Le Drian doesn't want LREM to field a candidate against him, but it's a tough sell to support an incumbent PS. Marc Le Fur should be the LR candidate, but there are quite a lot of center right councillors who wish to support someone else. Maybe LREM. Greens have selected Claire Desmarres-Poirier (unknown). Some of the PCF should as always, be with Chesnais-Girard while others will go with Insoumis.
At one point, there was a talk (in newspapers) of a poll, but it was contradicted and the newspapers have been admonished by the poll commission because announcing results of polls which are not declared officially to the poll commission (guaranteeing a good methodology) is illegal.
|
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,137
|
Post by Foggy on Dec 21, 2020 23:36:10 GMT
At the time of the reform, there was a website where you could form your own regions. I decided to make only two. France and "Parisians". I recall that site, but the proposals I came up with were not carried over from one laptop to the next. I think the only changes I agreed with completely were the mergers that created Occitanie, Nouvelle-Aquitaine and Normandie, plus leaving Île-de-France intact. I do believe there's some merit in your approach, mind! |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 22, 2020 7:33:22 GMT
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 22, 2020 7:34:15 GMT
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 22, 2020 7:34:56 GMT
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 22, 2020 7:35:56 GMT
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 22, 2020 7:37:23 GMT
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 22, 2020 7:40:35 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Dec 22, 2020 14:48:06 GMT
2010:  I guess the centre of Marseilles is where there are more immigrants, and therefore fewer white people available to vote FN? |
|
|
|
Post by relique on Dec 22, 2020 15:17:59 GMT
The rest of the Regions:
- Pays-de-la-Loire (no change), it includes: Loire-Atlantique, Vendée, Maine-et-Loire, Sarthe and Mayenne
It's been quite a right-wing region with Vendée, Sarthe, Mayenne and Maine-et-Loire quite heavily right-wing and Loire-Atlantique going left with Nantes. In 1998, for instance, François Fillon managed to achieve a majority of seats without the FN. In 2004, however, he lost to Jacques Auxiette, PS mayor of La-Roche-sur-Yon with 52/58. On the first round, Fillon managed 32% and merged with Jean Arthuis for UDF at 12%. PS Auxiette united all the left and obtained 37% on the first round. FN didn't qualify with only 9,7%. In 2010, Auxiette was reelected with 56% for 44% for Christophe Béchu, the UMP president of the Maine-et-Loire Département (he later became mayor of Angers in 2014). Auxiette got 34% on the first round and merged with Greens at 14% while the radical left got 5% and didn't merge. FN only got 7% while Béchu got 33% on the first round.
In 2015, Auxiette didn't seek reelection. His first VP, Christophe Clergeau, was selected and obtained 26%. He merged with Greens at 8% while PCF and MRC only got 3%. It was Bruno Retailleau from Vendée (former lieutenant of Philippe de Villiers who saught independence from the chief) who was the candidate for the right, obtained 33 and then 43% and was elected against Clergeau at 38% and FN at 20% (21% on the first round).
Retailleau chose to stay in the senate in 2017 when the law on the "cumul des mandats" was applied. He became the president of the LR grouping in the senate. He is very close to François Fillon now and is actively lobbying to LR for a primary to be held (hoping it would advantage a "fillon-like" candidate, close to the activist catholic traditionalists). He is replaced by Christelle Morançais, from Sarthe.
For 2021, Morançais will probably be candidate (but I don't have any news on that part of the political spectrum). There is a lot of heavyweights willing to go into battle. For LREM it will be François de Rugy, former Green MP, then minister for Valls, then candidate at the open-PS primary for his small ecologist party, he then supported Macron (although he signed a pledge to support the winner of the primary) and was reelected as a Loire-Atlantique MP for LREM. He was elected president of the National Assembly in 2017, and was replaced by Richard Ferrand after being appointed to the government. He resigned in the midst of a lot of bad press, some stories surfacing about financial dealings when a Green MP (some very naughty people might think that the very moral Greens waited until he was out of the party to stop covering this up but you'd have to be very naughty to believe that from the very righteous greens).
A different path, Mathieu Orphelin, very close to Nicolas Hulot and elected LREM MP in Maine-et-Loire, has been going further and further into opposition since Hulot left the government. He will probably head a list supported by the Greens. His status as a macronist (although now critical) MP will prevent the radical left from going into alliance with the Greens here. PCF will probably support the PS candidate, Guillaume Garot, former minister and one of the very few socialists able to win votes in rural Mayenne (he was mayor and MP of Laval). No poll here yet. Nantes and Le Mans were easily kept by PS in the municipal election. Laval was taken back.
- Centre-val-de-Loire (no change, except the name), it includes: Loir-et-Cher, Indre-et-Loire, Loiret and Indre
The Centre Region was right-wing until 1998. At this point, the UDF candidate for the presidency Bernard Harang was elected with the votes of FN councillors. He resigned after a few days. Later, it was Michel Sapin (PS) that became president. From now on, the PS has (surprisingly) kept control of the very rural region. Sapin was reelected in 2004 with 49% in a united left list that got 38% on the first round. Serge Vinçon for UMP got 21% and merged with Jacqueline Gourault of UDF at 14% to obtain 34% on the second round. FN got 18 and then 16%. In 2007, Sapin gave the presidency to François Bonneau who was reelected in 2010 with 50% after obtaining 28%, merging with the Greens at 12% and PCF Marie-France Beaufils at 8%. The right-wing Hervé Novelli (a minister of Sarkozy) obtained 29 and then 36%. FN got 11 and then 14% while Marc Fesneau for Modem got 5% and didn't merge with anyone.
In 2015, Bonneau managed to be reelected with 35.4% of the votes after obtaining 24% on the first round and merging with Greens at 7 (PCF with MRC obtaining less than 5%) against Philippe Vigier of UDI: 26% on the first round, 34.6% on the second. FN got 30% on both rounds.
In 2021, Bonneau might try to get reelected. He will face a list by his VP Green Charles Fournier, a list by the now goverment minister Modem Marc Fesneau (MP in Loir-et-Cher) supported by LREM and probably a list by Guillaume Peltier of LR (MP in Loir-et-Cher). Greens (supported by PS) took Tours, PS took Bourges to the right, while keeping Blois. Orléans was lost by the macronist right to the former right-wing mayor Serge Grouard. If there's no surprise alliance between Green and Modem or Modem and LR, the PS incumbent might be able to scrape by a win !
- Nouvelle-Aquitaine, merger of Poitou-Charentes, Aquitaine and Limousin, it includes Vienne, Deux-Sèvres, Charente and Charente-Maritime, Gironde, Landes, Pyrénées-Atlantique, Dordogne and Lot-et-Garonne, and Haute-Vienne, Corrèze and Creuse
A very, very big Region. Let's start with the quite known Poitou-Charentes. It has been an ambivalent region. Right-wing before 1981, the victory of Mitterand allowed the socialists to take the council's presidency. In 1985, however, René Monory got the region back to the right. In 1986, the right-wing Louis Fruchard took the council. Two years later, Jean-Pierre Raffarin became (as UDF) the region's presidency. In 1998, he was reelected without the voices of FN councillors. He was part of the "Démocratie Libérale" grouping inside UDF that supported the presidents that were elected with FN votes, and left UDF to co-found UMP. He became in 2002 the prime minister for Jacques Chirac's second term. He then left the region's presidency to Elisabeth Morin-Chartier. Morin-Chartier was then beaten in 2004 by a former socialist minister that will use this victory as momentum for her presidential bid: Ségolène Royal. Royal managed to unite all the left around her for the first round and obtained a whopping 46%, with 55% on the second round. Morin-Chartier got 33 and 36%, and FN 10,5 and 9%. In 2010, after her failed presidential campaign, Royal was reelected confortably. She obtained 39% on the first round and merged with the Greens at 12%, PCF and radical left only obtaining 4,7%. She got 61% on the second round, one of the best result in metropolitan France (with Midi-Pyrénées). Dominique Bussereau for UMP got 29 and 39%, and FN didn't qualify with only 8%. In 2014, Ségolène Royal became a government minister again and left the Region to her VP, Jean-François Macaire. The Region Limousin was, with Nord-Pas de Calais, one of the most socialist Region despite the difficult national contexts in 1986 or 1992 as Georg Ebner 's maps have shown. It stayed controled by PS politicians since the foundation. Jean-Paul Denanot succeeded Robert Savy with the election of 2004, obtaining 41%, merging with the Greens at 6% and obtaining 62% on the second round. UMP Archer obtained 23% and UDF 8% on the first round; they merged and got only 38%. FN failed to qualify at 9,3%. In 2010, Denanot obtained 38% without the communists. He merged with Greens at 9,7% while the communists and people close to Mélenchon obtained 13% and didn't merge with Denanot. Denanot got 48% on the second round, Christian Audouin for radical left (Front de Gauche) 19%. Archer for UMP got 24% and 33%. FN failed to qualify at 8%. In 2014 Denanot was reelected MEP and later left the presidency of the regional council to Gérard Vandenbrouck. Finally, the Aquitaine region was first held by none other that Jacques Chaban-Delmas, mayor of Bordeaux, prime minister, president of the National Assembly (among other things). He stayed president of the council until 1979 when it went to socialist André Labarrère, mayor of Pau. Labarrère left for the government in 1981 and was replaced by Philippe Madrelle, president of the Gironde département, senator until his death in 2019. One year before the first elections, in 1985, Jacques Chaban Delmas was reinstated as president. He faced the 1986 elections as incumbent and won. In 1988, however, the first law against "cumul des mandats" forced him to choose only two "mandats" and he chose Mayor of Bordeaux and député. He was succeeded by Jean Tavernier until the 1992 election when Jacques Valade was candidate for RPR. Valade was beaten by socialist Rousset in 2018 who obtained a relative majority to become president (Valade didn't go into alliance with FN). Rousset was reelected in 2004 without the communists with 38 and 55% on the first and second round. He stood against Xavier Darcos for UMP, a government minister from 2002 to 2010 and former mayor of Périgueux, who obtained 18% and merged with François Bayrou for UDF at 16%. They only obtained 33% on the second round while FN got 11 and 12%. Communists got less than 5%. In 2010, Rousset obtained 38% on the first round and merged with both Greens at just short of 10% and communists at 6%. They obtained 56% on the second round. Darcos was once again candidate and obtained 22% on the first round and 28 on the second. He didn't merge with Jean Lassalle for Modem who obtained 10 and 16%. FN failed to qualify at 8%. Rousset, the only incumbent having been elected on his name in 2010 (and before) and president of the largest Region, was the most legitimous choice to lead the socialists in 2015. He was elected for the big region and both former presidents of Poitou-Charentes and Limousin were appointed 1st and 3rd VP. Rousset got 30% on the first round and merged with Greens at 6%. PCF failed short of 5%. Rousset got 44% on the second round, against Virginie Calmels for UMP (a close ally to Juppé at the time), 27 and 34%, and FN at 23 and 22%. Rousset has been described as "macronist-leading" during the 2017 presidential election, but he never left the PS. For 2021, Rousset already announced he was candidate for reelection. Greens, after winning Bordeaux and Poitiers, are banking on this region and are sending an incumbent VP, Nicolas Thierry. LREM should support Modem Geneviève Darieussecq in this region where Modem have the most important political clout. She is a government minister and former mayor of Mont-de-Marsan. LR doesn't really have a big leader here since they lost Bordeaux. Jean Lassalle, former Modem and who was candidate at the presidential election, might be candidate her again (and do a bit more than 5% but probably not above). There were three polls here, one ordered by LREM, one by EELV (Greens) and one by PS. Of course, each poll was highly favourable to the party who ordered it... This should only tell us not to trust pollsters ! In the three polls, therefore, LREM/Modem list by Darieussecq would get between 19 and 23%, RN 18-23%, PS Rousset 17-22%, Greens 13-19%, LR 11-17% and Insoumis 10% in one poll (in support of Greens in another). Rousset might be reelected if he merges with Greens and if there's no Modem/LR merger (of if this merger is not enough). - Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur (no change, except the name which is now the very ugly Grand Sud), it includes Hautes-Alpes, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence, Alpes-Maritimes, Var, Bouches-du-Rhône and Vaucluse
The Region was first presided by long-time socialist mayor of Marseille, Gaston Deferre. He left the presidency to Michel Pezet when he was appointed interior minister in the Mauroy government in 1981. In 1986, Pezet lost the first election to Jean-Claude Gaudin, UDF, who would become in 1995 mayor of Marseille. He was elected in 1986 with the votes of the FN, which got 3 vice-presidents. In 1992, it was Jean-Marie Le Pen candidate for FN, Gaudin again for UDF and Bernard Tapie for the left. This time, Gaudin was elected in a relative majority without the votes of FN. In 1998, Gaudin chose to stay (almost) full-time at the mayorship and declined seeking reelection. It's François Léotard, the national president of UDF, who seeks to become president, vying to "fight against the far-right" Jean-Marie Le Pen where FN is slowly becoming more powerful. Léotard does a bit worst than Gaudin and obtains the same number of seats as Le Pen (37) and refuse the alliance, calling FN "neo-fascists". Michel Vauzelle, PS, becomes president with only 49 seats. At the time, a Christian Estrosi, from Alpes-Maritimes, was a big advocate of the alliance with FN and lobbied heavily to renew this alliance against the left.
In 2004, Vauzelle was reelected with 45% on the second round, obtaining 35% for a united left list on the first. Renaud Muselier from UMP with UDF obtained 26 and 34%, while a less known FN got 23 and 21%. Vauzelle was reelected with 44% of the votes in 2010, this time with only 26% on the first, merging with Greens at 11% and communists at 6%. Thierry Mariani for UMP obtained 27 and 33% of the votes while Le Pen came back and got 20 and 23%.
In 2015, Vauzelle did not seek reelection. A young socialist from Alpes-de-Haute-Provence, Christophe Castaner was selected as PS candidate. He obtained 17%, while Greens and communists in alliance got 6,5% (with Sophie Camard, now substitute to Mélenchon for the national assembly and mayor of a sector in Marseille for Printemps Marseillais). For the second round, Castaner decided to withdraw his lists to "faire barrage" against FN, to help the UMP candidate who was.....Christian Estrosi, mayor of Nice and former lobbyist for the Right-FN alliance, who got 26% of the votes in the first round against the grand-daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen (and niece of Marine Le Pen), Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, who obtained 41% on the first round. Estrosi was elected with 55% for 45% for Maréchal-Le Pen.
Estrosi only stayed president of the regional council until 2017, when he decided to become mayor of Nice again. He left the regional council to Renaud Muselier. Muselier will be candidate in 2021. LREM once thought of supporting him, but the recent covid crisis showed quite some distance between the government and Marseille local officials (including Muselier) supporting Pr Raout against parisians professors and scientific comittee. Castaner was once thought going back with LREM this time, but it will more probably be ministers Frédérique Vidal or Laurent Nunez for LREM. They will probably have trouble qualifying. For RN, it's Thierry Mariani, who left UMP for FN in the last european election, who will be candidate again after 2010...
On the left-hand side, the Greens have chosen their candidates (quite unknown). The left (PS and probably PCF) chose Olivia Fortin, from Printemps Marseillais, who has beaten the incumbent mayor of Marseille Martine Vassal in her sector (in Marseille, sectors regroup 2 or 3 former arrondissements in a similar vote as the Paris or Lyon vote). Insoumis might support Fortin, as some supported Rubirola in Marseille.
There was a poll in december by IFOP. Mariani, RN was at 30-31, Muselier at 26-27, LREM at 13. On the left side, there were two hypotheses. One without any alliance where Insoumis got 7%, PS-PCF 7%, Greens 9% and a small ecologist list 3%. One with left-wing and ecologists-alliance with PS-PCF-Insoumis at 13% and Greens-ecologists at 11%. On the second round, Muselier was always hypothesized as supported by LREM and would obtain 37-40, FN 33-37 and the left divided 15 (PS-PCF-Insoumis) and 14 (Greens) or 23 together.
- La Réunion , which only includes La Réunion island, and there is a separate Département
La Réunion is not a very simple region politically, as are most of the oversees départements. It was mostly right-wing in the 1970s and 1980s with the influence of Michel Debré, the writer of the 5th Republic constitution and very close ally to Général de Gaulle. It is also a département where the Parti Communiste Réunionnais has had a lot of influence, more than SFIO or PS (until recently), with the Vergès dynasty. The regional council was headed by the right until 1983 when there was the first election (three years before the elections in the metropolitan France). The left got more votes (more than 50%) but given their division, they got one less seat than the right (also divided). It was 45/44. Before the election, however, one of the right-wing councillor is hospitalized after an accident. For the vote, left and right have 22 votes. Mario Hoarau, for PCR, is elected because older than the right-wing candidate. In 1986, however, the right gets 26 seats and the left only 19. Pierre Lagourgue becomes president. In 1992, a third movement, FreeDom, headed by two spouses and doctors, Camille and Margie Sudre, who created a free radio and then a (illegal) free tv station, wins the election with a third of the votes. Camille Surdre's election is dismissed because of the free advertising in his radio station. His wife Margie Sudre becomes president in 1993. Funnily enough, she will become rather close to the right, afterward, becoming a junior minister for Juppé in 1995 and an MEP for RPR/UMP in 1999. Her husband Camille Sudre, her 1st VP will become very close to the PCR and will stay on as 1st VP when Paul Vergès of PCR became president of the regional council in 2004. Vergès got 34% of the votes on the first round and 45% on the second while the UMP Alain Bénard (that we saw mentioned in the municipal election in 2020 against Huguette Bello) got 26 and 33% and the socialist Michel Vergoz 16 and then 22%.
In 2010, Vergès was beaten. He obtained 30% on the first round, supported by Free Dom and Modem, and merged with former right-wing mayor of Le Tampon, André Thien Ah Koon (5%), who had to resign from the mayorship because of a conviction of 3 years ineligibility (convicted of using his political power to facilitate the acquisition of land by members of his family). André Thien Ah Koon left Le Tampon mayorship to right-wing Didier Robert...who headed the 2010 list of UMP ! Robert obtained 26% on the first round and merged with Nadia Ramassamy (5%) a right-wing doctor from Sainte-Suzanne. They obtain 45% on the second round for only 36% for Vergès. The socialist Michel Vergoz obtained 13% on the first round and 19% on the second.
In 2015, Didier Robert was reelected with 40 and 53% of the votes. On the first round, Huguette Bello (former PCR, supported by her own party, PLR and also PS and the Greens) obtained 24%, Thierry Robert, Modem 20% and Patrick Lebreton (PCR) 7%. The three lists merged and obtained 47% on the second round. FN got 2,4% and Jean-Hugues Ratenon for his small movement 1,7% (he became an insoumis MP in 2017).
For 2021, Didier Robert will be candidate but was weakened by very poor results in the municipal elections. However, the left has become an infinite number of small political parties, all powerful in a handful of cities. The different leaders have trouble finding a common candidate. The Insoumis Ratenon doesn't want the PS to lead, the PS of Saint-Denis would like to lead. Huguette Bello and Olivier Hoarau both from PLR don't see eye to eye on the strategy, Hoarau willing to be candidate. Lebreton, now with his own group, is contemplating a run as well, while the now very weakened PCR has spent most of the last decade putting candidates against former PCR like Hoarau or Lebreton... Robert might therefore be reelected thanks to a highly divided left.
- Guadeloupe, which only includes Guadeloupe, and there is a separate Département
As La Réunion, Guadeloupe has seen the first elections in 1983. The right-wing Lucette Michaux-Chevry (nicknamed the Iron lady of Guadeloupe at the time) wins the election but gives the presidency to José Moustache for RPR, because she was already the president of the département. In 1986, Michaux-Chevry and Moustache are on separate lists. Michaux-Chevry has 34% of the vote for 11% for Moustache. The left, divided on the ballot between PS and PC obtain 22 seats and Félix Proto (PS) becomes president. In 1992, however, Michaux-Chevry wins back the presidency on the left's divisions for the right until 2004 (with a very large reelection in 1998). In 2004, Victorin Lurel for PS with other left-wing parties got 44 and then 58% while Michaux-Chevry only got 38 and 42%. Lurel was reelected in 2010 with 57% on the first round against Blaise Also for UMP (14%). Eric Jalton headed another left-wing list (with communists and center-left; he supported Macron in 2017 but was reelected mayor of Abymes against the LREM MP Olivier Serva in 2020) and got 12%.
In 2015, Lurel was beaten by a list that included center-left GUSR , headed by Ary Chalus with Marie-Luce Penchard, daughter of Michaux-Chevry and junior government minister between 2009 and 2012, and Olivier Serva (that became later MP for LREM and was beaten by Jalton in Les Abymes in 2020). Chalus got 44 and 57% while Lurel got 41 and 42%. A LR list got less than 5% on the first round. Ary Chalus has joined LREM in 2017.
There's not much information for the 2021 election yet.
- Martinique, now a Collectivité unique, elected as the other regions
Martinique politics has been heavily influenced by the poet Aimé Césaire, député between 1945 and 1993, mayor of Fort-de-France between 1945 and 2001. He was first member of PCF after the war, but resigned in 1956 after the Khrushchev report on the crimes of Staline and stalinism. Two years later he founded the Parti Progressiste Martiniquais. He was succeeded by Serge Letchimy at the Fort-de-France mayorship and in 2005 at the presidency of PPM. In 2006, there was a division with Claude Lise leaving to found the RDM (Rassemblement démocratique pour la Martinique).
The first president of the Martinique regional council was Camille Petit, RPR until 1983. In 1983, the right-wing Michel Renard got 46% of the votes, Aimé Césaire 28%, the socialists 12%, the communists 9%, the pro-independence MIM (Mouvement Indépendantiste Martiniquais) headed by Alfred Marie-Jeanne 3% and another pro-independence Groupe révolutionnaire socialiste 2%. The right-wing got 20 seats, Césaire 12, socialist 5 and communists 4. Aimé Césaire was elected president. In 1986, the three left-wing parties part of this coalition were together on a list and got 21 seats (45%) against 20 for a divided right (47% on four lists). MIM got just short of 5%. Césaire left the presidency to Camille Darsières, also PPM. In 1992, the MIM got more votes and entered the council with 9 seats (16%) while the three left-wing lists (PCM 7%, PS 6%, PPM 16%) got 16 seats and RPR 16 seats (26%) (10 lists below 5% and without elected councillors totaled more than 25% of the vote !) . Emile Capgras (PCM) is elected because of his age.
In 1998, the Alfred Marie-Jeanne of MIM got 25% of the vote and 13 seats for 28% and 14 seats for RPR-UDF. PPM gets 13,5% , PS 5,5% and they obtain 10 seats, PCM is divided between the official list with the incumbent getting less than 5% and no seat and a separate list getting 7% and 4 seats. Marie-Jeanne is elected thanks to 5 votes from the left. He was part of the PCF grouping at the national assembly from 1997 to 2017. In 2004, he was reelected with 37 and then 54% of the votes. Two left-wing lists (one RDM-PPM, one socialist with BPM) got 17 and 16%, merged and obtained 31% on the second round, while a local right-wing party got 14 and 15%.
In 2010, Serge Letchimy was candidate for PPM and obtained 40% on the first round and 48% on the second without any merger. Alfred Marie-Jeanne was beaten with 32 and 41% while UMP André Lesueur got 11% on both rounds. Madeleine de Grandmaison for RDM got 7% and BPM 4%. In 2015, Letchimy united around him PPM, socialists, communists and BPM and got 39%. Alfred Marie-Jeanne was this time supported by MIM and RDM and some dissidents from UMP and got 30%. He merged with the LR-Modem list headed by Yan Monplaisir that obtained 14%. Marie-Jeanne was elected with 54% against Letchimy at 46%.
As in Guadeloupe, I don't have any news on the 2021 elections. In the 2017 legislative election, MIM lost one seat (Nilor was reelected but Marie-Jeanne, who didn't stand, failed his transition to a MIM candidate) to Josette Manin, former communist and member of BPM, she's part of the socialist grouping at the national assembly, Letchimy was reelected for PPM and Bruno Nestor Azérot reelected as well (he's rather center-left, former supporter of Rocard or Valls, but seats with the communists to allow the group to be viable).
- Guyane, now a Collectivité unique, elected as the other regions
The politics in Guyane are also a bit difficult. The leadership on the left has been a battle between the local federation of national Parti Socialiste and the Parti Socialiste Guyanais, which is independent from national PS (although, of course, quite close politically). If before 1980, the region was presided by UDF Serge Patient, is was presided by PSG Jacques Lony between 1980 and 1982, Georges Othily of PSG between 1982 and 1992, then Antoine Karam of PSG between 1992 and 2010. Othily left PSG in 1992 and founded FDG and was beaten by Karam (40/23) in the 1992 election. In 1998, PSG obtained 28% and 11 seats, FDG 23% and 9 seats, RPR 16% and 6 seats, pro-independence party 9% and three seats and a left-wing party Walwari 6% and two seats. In 2004, Karam got for PSG 22% on the first round and 37% on the second and was reelected. UMP Léon Bertrand got 24 and 32%. Othily for FDG got 19% and merged with Walwari, headed by Christiane Taubira (candidate at the 2002 presidential election for PRG) who obtained 18%. They only got 31% on the second round and failed to unseat Karam.
In 2010, former PSG, excluded in 2007 for supporting Nicolas Sarkozy at the presidential election Rodolphe Alexandre, first deputy-mayor of Cayenne, is candidate for UMP. He obtained 41% on the first round and 56% on the second. On the first round, Christiane Taubira for Walwari obtained 23% and merged with three lists: Gabrielle Serville for PSG, 6%, Greens Gaillou, 5% and Chantal Berthelot ex-PSG, MP, 5%. FDG Horth got 4,8%. Taubira obtained 44% on the second round. Alexandre was reelected in 2015 with 42 and 55% of the votes against the incumbent president of the Département (which merged for the 2015 elections) Alain Tien-Long, close to pro-independence MDES (and supported by Léon Bertrand from LR), 30 then 45%. Chantal Berthelot for PSG got 8%, Line Létard for Walwari 7% and Canavy for MDES 6%, LR-UDI official list 3%. No one merged.
No news either for 2021 here.
|
|
|
|
Post by relique on Dec 22, 2020 15:19:36 GMT
2010: I guess the centre of Marseilles is where there are more immigrants, and therefore fewer white people available to vote FN? You guess wrong. The immigrants are heavily located in the "quartiers nord" where FN controled a sector between 2014 and 2020 and where they do their best scores.
The center is more bourgeois, a bit more qualified workers, voting either center-right or left (the famous french "bobo").
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 22, 2020 23:46:26 GMT
I guess the centre of Marseilles is where there are more immigrants, and therefore fewer white people available to vote FN? You guess wrong. The immigrants are heavily located in the "quartiers nord" where FN controled a sector between 2014 and 2020 and where they do their best scores.
The center is more bourgeois, a bit more qualified workers, voting either center-right or left (the famous french "bobo").
It's close to impossible to find ethnical maps for France, but here are maps of - InCome (well, fiscal revenues, to be precise):  - CollegeStudents (only students?, or also incl. middleSchool-pupils?) from abroad (only foreigners?, or all strangers?):  |
|
|
|
Post by relique on Dec 26, 2020 10:39:44 GMT
About the "départements", it will be hard for me to do an indepth analysis of the close to 100 départements (and 2 000 cantons !).
My département, le Nord (59) is the one I'm currently working on (for partisan reasons, of course). I'm probably not going to translate the 20 pages I wrote for my political party, but I'll give you these two maps. The first one is the map of the incumbents given their political party.
Two warnings:
- To be more understandable, I used different colors for the same political parties (or political side): red, dark red and orange-red for communists; pale violet, magenta and pink for socialists; blue(s), blue-greens for the right-wing (with more pale blue when there were some center-right candidates) - I didn't do a very very thorough search in the depth of the internet to find the exact boundaries for cities which have several "cantons"; it's harder to find those since the redistricting in 2015 anyway for the pre-2015 era. So these are approximative estimates of the boundaries.
(third warning: there are a few cantons which are not contiguous: East-Dunkerque, South-Douai, North-Valenciennes, Solre-le-Château and of course Marcoing with the three villages which are inside the Pas-de-Calais département; all of them, except the three villages in Pas-de-Calais, were resolved with new redistricting, contiguity being a key criteria for redistricting, in recent years).
Then, the map for the "cantons" in 2015, after the redistricting and the election:
I think you can see quite clearly where the left (and particularly the socialists) have lost their majority in this département:
- East Dunkerque - Flandre intérieure (Hazebrouck - Bailleul) - Roubaix - Tourcoing - East Valenciennes - Maubeuge-Fourmies - East Cambrai
|
|
|
|
Post by relique on Apr 16, 2021 21:43:21 GMT
It's been decided. The local elections will be held June 20th and 27th.
I'll do an update on the regional elections in a few days. For Départements, it'll have to wait to try and classify them in several categories.
|
|
|
|
Post by relique on Apr 25, 2021 18:19:36 GMT
Waiting for a bit more clarity in the regional elections, I give you a dive into départements. The département-level is one of the oldest, and one that was not much touched. A lot of boundaries (we draw "cantons" and called the elections "cantonales") date from the 19th century. Usually, when there were demographic growth in urban areas, the government divided the urban cantons into more cantons, but didn't merge any.
Sarkozy tried to put a reform to make a "territorial councillor" elected inside some redrawn cantons and sitting in both the département council and the regional council. The left didn't agree and Hollande repurposed the reform: there would still be two separate elections, but they did redraw the cantons and divided them by 2: they created Cantons in which 2 département councillor were elected: one male and one female. It lead to an increase of population in most if not all cantons. There were much much less councillors from rural areas because of it (sometimes, up to 6 cantons became 1 with two councillors).
For today, I only give you a bit of information on the départemental councils that flipped in 2015: 1 from right to left and 28 from left to right. The cantonales elections were in the past half renewed every three years, so that in 2004, 2008 and 2011, the left made significant gains during the Chirac and Sarkozy presidency, flipping a lot of seats and département. In 2015, every canton was up for grab (no partial renewal anymore). It lead to this huge shift to the right despite the new cantons favouring more urban areas.
In another post, I'll go into some right-wing départements which are interesting to follow (8) and some which are not (30) and left-wing départements to watch (14) and some not to (14).
I excluded from the analysis Mayotte which politics I'm really not familiar with, and the Corse départements which merged (also with the regional council) into a unique council. I think I already talked about it on the thread about regions.
Left-to-Right in 2015:
- Ain (01): Left/Right 27/16 to 4/42 in 2015; the left were eliminated from 11 cantons (/23) where the right beat FN candidates every where. In the remaining 12 cantons, there was 1 Left-FN second round where the left won, 4 classical left-right second round with the right winning, and 7 three-way races, 6 won by the right and 1 by the left. 2 cantons should have been won by the left if they had been more united and qualified for the second round. There were 3 very tight victories for the right (120 to 250 votes) and in 3 additional cantons, the right was close to being eliminated in the first round but still won. It still would have been too short for the left, though, with only 10 out of 23 cantons where they apparently stood a chance. Neither 2017 nor 2020 was good for the left, and LR managed to keep 3 out of their 5 legislative constituencies in 2017 (for 2 for LREM; no left-wing seat in 2012). For 2021, the left have decided to field only one ticket by canton. If the right (LREM-LR) is divided, there might be some surprises (FN-left two way races for the second round).
- Aisne (02): Left/Right 27/15 to 16/18/8 in 2015; FN won in 4 cantons, creating a difficult relative majority for the right, sometimes supported by some left-wing councillors. The left was eliminated from 6 cantons and withdrew from the second round in 4 cantons. Right-wing tickets withdrew from 3 cantons (2 to help the left against FN, 1 to help another right-wing ticket). FN won in Villers-Cotterêts (they won the city in 2014) against UMP(LR), Vic-sur-Aisne in the first round where there were no right-wing ticket, only a united left against FN, Hirson against united left where the right-wing tickets were eliminated, and Guise where a right-wing ticket withdrew to help the left-wing ticket. Some close elections in 2015: 1 left v FN for 80 votes, 1 left v FN v UMP for 300 votes, 1 FN v UMP for 400 votes. In 2017, PS managed to keep one of the four left-wing seat (the only PS MP in Hauts-de-France Region), LR kept their St-Quentin based seat and LREM won three seats (one PRG -center left- MP becoming LREM and keeping his seat with his new label). RN was well ahead in both rounds (25 then 41%) but failed to win any seat. In 2020, not much change in the municipal election, with RN keeping its one city, Villers-Cotterêts. The left have decided to be united in most cantons (but not all). If there are several right-wing tickets (LREM against LR for example) the election might be very uncertain.
- Allier (03) Left/Right 18/17 to 18/20 in 2015; the incumbent president of the council was PCF, the election was very very tight, with one canton Bourbon-l'Archambault deemed the tipping point: it was communist and was lost to the right by 48 votes ! The left was eliminated from three cantons, but didn't really stand a chance there. The city of Bourbon-l'Archambault was lost by PCF in 2014 but won again in 2020, while the city of Commentry, lost to the right in 2001 was taken back by the left in 2020. Both cantons were the closest in 2015, and so the left seems to have a good shot at taking back the département. In 2017, the former PCF president of the Département won a PS seat (it was last PCF in 1968) while LREM won the other two (both former left-wing seats). Other close elections in 2015: Lapalisse was won by PRG by 100 votes in a three-way race with right-wing and FN tickets, Montluçon 2 was won by PCF by 130 votes against a right-wing ticket (3 out of the 4 Montluçon seats are held by the left while the right controls the city since 2001), Moulins 1 was won by PS by 150 votes (1 out of 2 Moulins cantons is left-wing, while the city has always more or less been right-wing).
- Bouches-du-Rhône (13) from 37/20 to 24/32/2 in 2015 with only one FN canton despite the very strong showing (39% on the second round). The loss of Marseille by LR to the left might indicate difficulties for Martine Vassal, president of the Département and beaten candidate for LR for Marseille mayorship. However, the left have lost some strongholds in the rest of the Département: Arles (50,000 inhabitants) and Gardanne (20,000) lost by PCF, Allauch (20,000) and Auriol (12,000) lost by PS. The Arles and Gardanne cantons were still left-wing in 2015, while Auriol and Allauch were both part of the Allauch canton lost by the left to the right in 2015 (any hope to regain it seems to have vanished; in 2015, the right-wing ticket qualified with 17% against FN while there were three left-wing tickets at 15, 12 and 7% and a left-right ticket at 13% ). The only FN canton, Berre-l'Etang, is not FN anymore, both councillors leaving FN, one to become LR and the other DLF, both supporting Vassal. It might be a good pick-up opportunity for the PS. The woman councillor Christiane Pujol was candidate in Lançon-Provence and lost 76/24% against the incumbent LR mayor. There are only 4 Marseille cantons that might be good pick-up opportunities for the left, Marseille 7, 8, 9 and 11, but it won't be easy. Only 11 is in sectors that were won by the left in 2020, alhtough they had good results in the others. The Salon-de-Provence 1 canton could also be a good pickup opportunity for the left (they withdrew their ticket to allow LR to win against FN) but the LR incumbent mayor was easily reelected.
- Charente (16) from 23/12 to 20/18 in 2015, with one canton won by the right for 120 votes. In 2017, PS lost two constituencies out of the three, while Jérôme Lambert, great-nephew of François Mitterand was reelected as a left-wing independent. He joined MDC (Mouvement des Citoyens, close to Chevènement) a few weeks ago to become their third member of parliament (2 députés, 1 sénatrice). In the 2020 municipales, the right-wing mayor of Angoulême was reelected with 53% of the votes against 4 left-wing lists (at 22, 15, 8 and 2%), so not that big a victory. Cognac was won by the right in 2020, although both cantons were also won by the right in 2015. Funnily enough, three of the département councillors for Cognac were on the same list, headed by one of them, the LR list which lost, another right-wing list winning. The fourth councillor, Modem, was reelected mayor of Châteaubernard. So there might be divisions on the right side if the new mayor sends members of his majority against his opponents, all three elected opposition councillors.
- Cher (18) From 22/13 to 14/24 in 2015, the left might have hoped that the winning of the biggest city in 2020, Bourges (65,000 inhabitants) by PS might help them get the département back. However, in 2015, the left lost the département in the rural areas, and there, the municipal elections were not that good. In 2015, the left won 3 out of the 4 Bourges cantons already, and it will be difficult to get the fourth. The most likely targets are Chârost (250 votes between right-wing and PCF, quite powerful in this département, with the Vierzon mayorship among others), Saint-Doulchard with a 17-vote win by the right, Saint-Germain-du-Puy with the left eliminated with 40% of the vote (32% for UMP, 28% for FN, 23% for PCF and 17% for PS), Trouy with the same scenario (32% for right-wing, 27% for FN, 21% for PCF and 20% for PS). The left need 3 more cantons to win the majority. In 2017, the three MPs lost to LREM-Modem, Yann Galut (PS) who became mayor of Bourges, Nicolas Sansu (PCF) mayor of Vierzon and Yves Fromion (LR), former mayor of Aubigny-sur-Nère (where there might be a war among the right, the départemental councillor LR Autissier having thrown his support for a dissident list in the municipal election against Laurence Renier, LR mayor; she vowed publicly to get revenge in 2021.
- Corrèze (19) From 20/17 to 12/26. François Hollande was the president of the council until his election as president of the Republic in 2012. It was a tight election with the left winning 2 cantons very narrowly (90 votes in Allassac, 20 votes in Brive-la-Gaillarde-1, ) while the right won 3 cantons also narrowly (10 votes in Brive-la-Gaillarde-4, 110 votes in Haute-Dordogne, 180 votes in Plateau de Millevaches). Wins in those cantons for the left wouldn't have been enough to keep the Département, though. Another well-known political figure didn't seek reelection in 2015: Bernadette Chirac, wife (now widow) of Jacques Chirac, elected councillor in the Corrèze canton (yes, there was a Corrèze canton in the Corrèze département) since 1979 retired. Her canton was dismantled across three new cantons (two going left, one right) and apparently, she tried to keep it whole but failed her lobbying. She was a substitute in Brive-la-Gaillarde-2, easily won by UMP. In 2014, Brive-la-Gaillarde was won back by UMP at the municipal election and kept in 2020. There were a few changes mainly toward the right in smaller cities. In 2017, the MP and mayor of Tulle (who replaced Hollande at the mayorship and in the constituency) Bernard Combes (PS) was beaten by LREM while LR managed to gain the former PS second constituency against LREM on the second round. The former mayor of Brive-la-Gaillarde, Philippe Nauche (PS), incumbent MP only getting 14% of the vote.
- Côtes-d'Armor (22) from 38/14 to 34/20 with a few narrow wins for the right (Lanvallay with 60 votes, Paimpol with 25 votes, Perros-Guirec with 400, Plérin 50, Trégueux 200). In the 2020 municipal election, the left gained the most populous city, Saint-Brieuc (45,000 inhabitants) and Paimpol (7,000) while UDI gained Langueux (7,000). One of the two Saint-Brieuc canton was already left-wing but Saint-Brieuc-1 might flip. In Paimpol, the former right-wing mayor, beaten in 2020 and département councillor will retire. The left has a really good chance to take it, as it was already a very narrow loss last time. The left have all coalesced. In Guingamp, a LREM councillor retires while the other one lost his mayorship. The left might also have a good shot if the Guingamp mayor is candidate for example. The right might be divided between LREM-Modem candidates and classical LR, but for now, there's not much information.
- Creuse (23) from 18/9 to 14/16 with a few wins by only 100 to 200 votes for the right. However, Guéret, the main city (13,000 inhabitants in this very very rural département) was lost by the left. The two Guéret cantons elected left-wing councillors so there might be some possibilities for the right IF they have good relations with the new mayor. However, Sainte-Feyre (5th most populous, 2,500 inhabitants), Felletin (9th, 1,500) and Ahun (11th, 1,400) were won by the left. The Ahun canton was lost by the left for 110 votes. Felletin was already a left-wing canton while Sainte-Feyre is part of Guéret-1.
- Doubs (25) from 22/13 to 14/24. In Besançon (115,000 inhabitants), the right won 4 out of the 6 cantons while the city was PS. The mayor became LREM and in 2020, the united left incumbent majority without LREM 'kept' the city with a Green mayor. A former Green MP (now LREM MP) Alauzet failed to take it while the right was quite close to winning. The left-wing majority might be able to flip all four of the right-wing cantons, while elsewhere, in Montbéliard, a divided left was eliminated with 37%. There were also narrow victories for the left in 2 cantons.
- Drôme (26) from 26/10 to 16/22. The divided left was eliminated in Montélimar-1 and the left lost Valence-1 by 300 votes, but there were more narrow victories for the left (200 votes in Crest, 300 in Grignan against FN, 15 votes in Romans-sur-Isère in a three-way race, 180 votes in Valence-2. In 2020, the left failed to take back the main cities Valence (60,000 inhabitants, left wing before 2014) and Montélimar (35,000, before 1989), Romans-sur-Isère (33,000, before 2014) and Bourg-lès-Valence (19,000, before 2014) while both PS mayors of Bourg-de-Péage (10,000) and Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux (9,000) became LREM and were reelected with their new label. Both former PS département councillors of Bourg-de-Péage are now LREM.
- Eure (27) from 24/19 to 16/30. The biggest city Evreux was left-wing during the second half of the 20th century but has been flippping back and forth with the national wave: right-wing in 2001 with well-known Jean-Louis Debré, left wing in 2008 with PRG Champredon, and UMP-LR since 2014. In 2020, it was kept LR with only 51% on the second round for 37% for united left and 12% for LREM. Both Evreux-2 and Evreux-3 saw the left eliminated in 2015 with good (added) scores: 41 and 38%, far ahead of qualified (becase united) right-wing and far-right tikets. It was also the case in Louviers (40% for divided left) and Brionne (34%). The left would need victories in those four Cantons without any defeat to take back the Département. It will be hard since there also were close victories in Beuzeville (200 votes in a 3-way race) and Saint-André-de-l'Eure (300 votes also in a 3-way race). The last senate race here was quite surprising. It seemed that, in the Département of former LR government minister Bruno Le Maire, other minister Sébastien Lecornu managed to rally the big names of the right here with two LR incumbent senators on his list and the president of the Départemental council. The third senator, Hervé Maurey, center-right close ally to president of Normandie regional Council Hervé Morin (who seemed quite isolated as he became the enemy to quite every one on the national scene), rallied mayors from very small cities (500 inhabitants for three of them, 2,500 for one substitute). It paid off and Maurey got elected the second on his list, Kristina Pluchet, mayor of Saussay-la-Campagne since may 2020, 531 inhabitants, while Lecornu got only one seat ! Maybe some war of the rights might lead to a defeat by the president of the Département who rallied the wrong list apparently !
- Indre-et-Loire (37) from 24/13 to 8/30 in 2015. The loss of Tours (135,000 inhabitants) in 2014 resulted in a large defeat in 2015 for the left. They went from 5 out of 6 cantons in Tours (with some suburbs) to 1 out of 4. Tours was won back by the left in 2020 with a Green mayor. They might get 4 out of 4 this time. They would still need 3 more cantons to take back the council. The left was eliminated in Ballan-Miré on the first round with 45% of the votes for three tickets. In Bléré the left lost by 140 votes. Elsewhere, it might be difficult since the results at the municipal election in the rest of the département was quite bad: loss of Saint-Pierre-des-Corps (right-wing canton that would have been a good target), Amboise (Canton won by the left by 150 votes), Bléré, Château-Renault (divided left eliminated with 33% in 2015) and Véretz (in Montlouis-sur-Loire canton, won by the left for 260 votes in 2015).
- Isère (38) from 38/20 to 20/34 in 2015. The Greens kept Grenoble in 2020 but elsewhere in the Département, the left kept losing more cities. In 2014 it was socialists Bourgoin-Jallieu (26,000 inhabitants), Voiron (20,000), Voreppe (10,000), La Tour-du-Pin (8,000) and Pontcharra (7,000), communist Roussillon (8,000) and Green Vizille (8,000). In 2020, communist Fontaine (22,000), left-wing L'Isle-d'Abeau (16,000), Saint-Marcellin (8,000). There were some gains by the left in Meylan (18,000), Saint-Egrève (16,000), Seyssinet-Pariset (12,000) and the left got back Vizille (8,000). The four Grenoble Cantons are already left-wing so no hope there for the left. There might be some hope with the victory in Meylan to take back the canton as well. In Chartreuse Guiers, the left was eliminated in 2015 with 39% of the votes, in L'Isle-d'Abeau with 36% (but lost the main city since), in Pont-de-Claix with 47% on four tickets, in Roussillon with 38%
- Jura (39) from 19/15 to 6/28 in 2015. There's not much hope in this Département for the left, although the PS won Lons-le-Saunier, right-wing since 1989 (there are two cantons who elected right-wing councillors in 2015). The left won Arbois as well (right-wing since 1989) which might give them an advantage to take back the canton. The left didn't take back Dole and Saint-Claude however, lost in 2014. That might have helped them in two other cantons. The left, however, won Jura only slightly in 2011 after two partial elections with a huge left-wing wave in 2008 (4 seats won) and 2011 (2 seats won).
- Nord (59) from 54/25 to 30/52 in 2015. A huge defeat in 2015 for the left in the most populous département: they lost as soon as the first round results: the left only qualify in less than half of the cantons. If FN was qualified in almost all cantons (there were "classical" two way races between a left wing and a right-wing ticket only in very urban Lille-5 and Villeneuve d'Ascq cantons), they failed to get any seat. So the right won the lot, shortly after the 2014 municipal bloodbath for the left (Roubaix, Tourcoing, Dunkerque, Maubeuge, Hazebrouck, Halluin, Loos, Bailleul, Sin-le-Noble, Fourmies etc..). In 10 cantons, the eliminated divided left had more votes that the right-wing tickets (Annoeullin, Anzin, Dunkerque-2, Faches-Thumesnil, Fourmies, Marly, Maubeuge, Orchies, Roubaix-1 and Tourcoing-2). There might be a bit more unity this time around, but the 2020 municipal election wasn't that good. The left didn't take back any big city (Maubeuge, Roubaix, Tourcoing, Dunkerque). They took Faches-Thumesnil and might have some hope there (although the communists lost Seclin to the new right-wing départemental councillor, socialists Templemars in 2020 and Vendeville in 2014), and won Orchies quite easily. In Dunkerque, the left-wing mayor is still governing with the right and is supporting the incumbent right-wing councillors in Dunkerque-2. Marly was lost in 2020 after the tragic death of its communist mayor Fabien Thiémé. The Douai canton might be a good opportunity as well with reelected PS mayor Frédéric Chéreau (flipping the city in 2014 against the right-wing wave) being candidate against unpopular Christian Poiret, designated by the right as their candidate for the presidency (but given the nice back-stabbing ever since, they rather designated him as a target). The left has more or less given up on the rural areas in Flandre or Sambre and Avesnois, so that hope there is thin. In Armentières, reelected mayor Haesebroeck has a chance as he has beaten the right-wing councillor at the municipal election quite strongly. In Bailleul, the new mayor is a former deputy-mayor of Martine Aubry in Lille, but he is quite independent. In fact, both PS and Greens are part of the opposition against the new mayor, and his first deputy might be candidate for the right-wing majority at the département council. It will be difficult for the left, which is united in most cantons, but not in rather left-wing cantons in Lille, Villeneuve d'Ascq and around Dunkerque. The right is also divided but, for now, only in very right-wing cantons (Lambersart, Valenciennes, Templeuve...).
- Oise (60) from 25/16 to 8/30/4(FN) in 2015. The left doesn't seem to have any hope here to regain control of the council. They might take the FN cantons of Crépy-en-Valois (although the right was divided last time and may have donne better than the socialists on the second round) and Noyon (although the former socialist turned LREM mayor was beaten by a LR candidate at the municipales). There was no big win in the municipal election for the left, but they might have a chance to take a few cantons where they were either eliminated because divided or narrowly beaten: Beauvais-1 (eliminated with 36%), Nanteuil-le-Haudouin (eliminated with 33%), Nogent-sur-Oise (eliminated with 46%).
- Pyrénées-Atlantiques (64) from 28/24 to 22/32 in 2015. In this département that the left only slightly won in 2011 thanks to a big win in 2008 (+6 seats) and in 2011 (+2 seats), they resisted well to the right-wing wave. This département is where François Bayrou is elected, so that Modem has a great influence. After 43 years controled by the socialists, Pau was won by Bayrou in 2014, and he was reelected in 2020 but not so comfortably with 55/45 on the second round (he won with 63% in 2014). In Bayonne, the left wing lists had a majority on the first round but the merger was difficult and the regionalists-Greens refused to merge, so the right-wing mayor was reelected. The left may stand a chance in a few cantons that were lost in 2015: Pau-2 (250 votes loss), Pau-4 (500 votes), Lescar, Gave et Terres du Pont-Long (70 votes), Pays de Morlaàs et du Montanérès (500 votes). The problems for the left is the presence of regionalists that like to go into opposition, whatever the majority. They are often supported by the Greens, and have trouble transfering votes to other left-wing tickets.
- Saône-et-Loire (71) from 39/18 to 26/32. In 2014, the municipal elections were a bloodbath for the left here. They maintain quite a good result in 2015 at the départementales. In 2017, PS managed to keep one MP here, Cécile Untermaier in the east. One of their last mayor, Rémy Rebeyrotte from Autun was selected by LREM and beat the incumbent socialist to become MP. He left his mayorship to a Modem who was reelected without a left-wing list against him. Elsewhere, the left failed to take back any big city they lost (Châlon-sur-Saône, Mâcon, Montceau-les-Mines). It doesn't bode well for them for the départementales, since their best hopes might have been Autun-1, Chalon-sur-Saône-3, Montceau-les-Mines and Ouroux-sur-Saône. However in 2015, the left gain a few cantons very narrowly or in 3 way-races that might not happen this time around (the two tickets with the most votes are qualified and any other ticket with at least 12,5% of the registered voters' votes, which will be impossible if 40 or 30% participation) : Autun-2, Blanzy, Chagny, Creusot-1, Cuiseaux, Gergy, Hurigny and Saint-Rémy.
- Seine-Maritime (76) from 45/24 to 34/36 a very narrow win for the right in 2015 with losses by the left in Dieppe 1 and 2, a very communist city, and Le Havre-1 (43% for the eliminated left), Le Havre-4 (42%), Rouen 1 (350 votes), Saint-Valery-en-Caux (110 votes). In the 2017 parliamentary elections, the communists surprisingly took back 3 seats that they had lost in 1997 or 2012 to PS in Dieppe, Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray and Le Havre. PS managed to keep 1 seat (there was a by-election last year and they kept it easily). In the municipales, communists failed to take back Le Havre from the PM former LR Edouard Philippe, but had quite a good result (better than 2014 or even 2008 on the first round). The trouble was the relationships between communists and the green-socialist list. Dieppe was kept quite easily for the communists with 61% on the first round, Rouen by the socialists (there was speculation the Greens might conquer it but they failed), Yvetot for the PS. They clearly have a possibility to get the département back if the left is united or if there is a clear left-wing leader in each canton so that they are not eliminated.
- Seine-et-Marne (77) from 23/20 to 8/38 in 2015. There's not much chance for the left to get this département back. A peripheric banlieue of Paris, it is becoming more and more right-wing. The 2014 and 2020 municipales election so little change, though the left did lose Chelles and didn't take it back. Its canton was quite close in 2015 with the left eliminated on the first round despite a good enough score (39% by four tickets). They did about the same in 2020: 39% by four lists with the incumbent mayor (and départemental councillor) elected on the first round with 55%. Elsewhere, the left might be able to do better in Lagny-sur-Marne (38% by three tickets, eliminated), Melun (37% by two tickets, eliminated), Savigny-le-Temple (800 votes defeat; the woman councillor left LR and became deputy-mayor to the socialist mayor of Savigny-le-Temple), Torcy (160 votes) and Villeparisis (39% by three tickets, eliminated, with the main city going back to the left in 2020). Still, those cantons wouldn't be enough.
- Deux-Sèvres (79) from 18/15 to 10/24, the left resisted well here in the départementales after the big loss of Niort in 2014 municipales. It was the département of Ségolène Royal and her successor, Delphine Batho, former PS, managed to be reelected in 2017 while LREM took the two other seats from the PS. Batho left PS and became the new president of Génération Ecologie, an old ecologist center-left party. She managed to do quite well with her candidates at the municipales in 2020, flipping Saint-Maixent in her constituency. The left failed to take back Niort. All three Niort seats were close in 2015, Niort 1 a right-wing win by 18 votes, Niort-2 a left-wing win by 75 and Niort-3 a right-wing win by 32 votes. The left might flip Saint-Maixent-l'Ecole canton after the city (230 votes in 2015) and Thouars (70 votes). If they had done better in Niort in the municipales (taking back the city) it would be an election to watch closely.
- Somme (80) from 24/18/4(independents from Modem, left or right) to 18/26/2(FN). The FN only managed to gain one canton despite leading in votes (34 and 39% on first and second round). In 2014, the left had lost Amiens (133,000 inhabitants), Péronne (8,000, fourth most populous city) but kept Abbeville (24,000, second ). However Abbeville mayor Nicolas Dumont became LREM in 2017, was candidate in the parliamentary election but lost to very left-wing François Ruffin (independent but joined the insoumis grouping). Dumont decided not to run (at only 43) for the 2020 municipales and the city was taken by center-right (former PS, joining Amiens mayor in UDI) Demarthe with 42%, ahead of LREM at 29%, the left at 21% and RN at 8%. In 2020, the left did take back some smaller cities: Péronne, Corbie (6,000), Montdidier (6,000) and Ham (5,000) but failed to take back Amiens (46% for macronist center-right Fouré, 36% for the united left and 18% for a former deputy-mayor of Fouré). For départementales, hope for the left went through Abbeville, where the left-wing tickets were eliminated with 38 and 35%. Having taken back Corbie, the left might be able to take the canton from FN. Both elected councillors left FN, so they might be in competition against another far-right ticket. In Ham and Péronne, taking back the city might prove them more competitive against the right-wing tickets.
- Tarn-et-Garonne (82) from 28/2 to 12/18. The Département is the fiefdom of the PRG dynasty Baylet, with Jean-Michel the former president of Département. He lost his senate seat in 2014 (the other incumbent former PRG senator won but some on the left decided to vote for UMP François Bonhomme - or not vote - rather than giving Baylet the second seat) and the Département in 2015. In fact, theoretically, the left still has a majority of cantons, but four left-wing councillors allied themselves with the right and one of them became president. The left doesn't seem to have finished with their quarrels here. The right lost Moissac to FN in 2020 (because of a newfound hatred towards a bunch of east europeans being brought by farmers to hire and not willing to integrate with the population). For the left to claim back the presidency, they'd need to take back Aveyron-Lère where the left-wing tickets were eliminated with 46%, they might try to compete against the left-wing independents sitting with the right in Castelsarrasin and Garonne-Lomagne-Brulhois (although those tickets might be helped by the right this time around). The Moissac canton was UMP, the left being eliminated with 36% will probably not compete against a RN stimulated by the municipales.
- Vaucluse (84) from 13/8/3(far-right, including 2 Ligue du Sud and 1 FN) to 12/12/10(6 FN and 4 LdS) with UMP getting the presidency because of an age benefit. In 2014, the left had managed to get back Avignon from the right, losing smaller cities to the right in Vaison-la-Romaine (6,000) and Sarrians (6,000). Le Pontet was conquered by FN while LdS kept their two big cities in Orange and Bollène and gained Camaret-sur-Aigues (5,000). In 2017, Jacques Bompard, LdS mayor of Orange managed to keep his constituency while Marion Maréchal-Le Pen didn't fight to keep her seat. It was taken by LREM. LREM took the socialist seat while the two LR MPs were reelected. In 2020, there weren't many changes in the municipales: the left managed to oust the far-right LdS mayor of Bollène, wife of Bompard, while RN gained Morières-lès-Avignon. It might mean that the left will be able to take back the Bollène canton from LdS. The left lost by 130 votes the Apt canton in 2015. Carpentras stayed left, again at the municipales, surprisingly. So the left will still try to take back the canton from RN. The Monteux canton might also be taken back from RN as well, as the left kept their cities. The Orange and Pontet cantons will probably be safely kept by the far-right.
- Territoire-de-Belfort (90) from 10/5 to 6/12. After the loss of Belfort city from chevènementistes of MRC in 2014 to UMP (the incumbent mayor left MRC in 2012 to be able to be candidate at the parliamentary election - Chevènement had told him it was a bad idea because he would lose and would be in a bad position to keep the city; he lost the 2012 election, left for PS and then lost in 2014), they lost the Département which was PS since 2004 (MRC before). There are only 9 cantons, 3 for the city of Belfort, 6 for the rural areas. The left only managed in 2015 to keep one Belfort canton and two rural ones. Modem Grudler (now MP) gained one Belfort canton. The left lost the Delle canton while the president of the Département lost in Valdoie against one of the two right-wing MP. The left have kept losing a few cities in the 2020 municipal elections and didn't win anything back. They won't get a chance in my opinion, are they are still very very divided.
- Essonne (91) from 26/16 to 12/30. In 2014, the left had lost a few cities: Viry-Châtillon (30,000), Palaiseau (30,000), Athis-Mons (30,000), Brétigny-sur-Orge (25,000), Montgeron (23,000) and others. This lead them to lose seats at the départementales in Athis-Mons, Brétigny-sur-Orge, Vigneux-sur-Seine and Les Ulis where chevènementiste Françoise Marhuenda took back the city lost by senator Paul Loridant (he died a few months ago) to PS; Marhuenda allied with the right to take Les Ulis canton. They still managed to keep Palaiseau canton despite the defeat. In 2020, the left made some significant gains in the 2020 municipales: mainly Corbeil-Essonnes (50,000) taken from the right by PCF, Savigny-sur-Orge (36,000) by Greens, Athis-Mons taken back by PS, Les Ulis by PS, and a few smaller cities. It will allow them to try and get a few cantons: Corbeil-Essonnes, Athis-Mons, Savigny-sur-Orge and Les Ulis. Arpajon was quite close in 2015 (40 votes). They might try to get back Viry-Châtillon but, as they didn't take the city, the right seems favourite. They'd need a five net gain to win back the département.
- La Réunion (974) from 33/16 to 14/36 in 2015. In 2014, the left had lost a few cities: Saint-Paul (104,000 inhabitants), Saint-André (55,000), Saint-Louis (52,000), Petite-Île (12,000), Les Trois-Bassins (7,000) and La Plaine-des-Palmistes (5,000). This lead them to lose two out of the three Saint-André cantons, one Saint-Benoît out of two, three out of four Saint-Denis, and the three Saint-Paul cantons. In 2020, the left gained back Saint-Paul, Saint-André and Cilaos. In 2021, they might target the two right-wing Saint-André cantons, two Saint-Denis cantons, two Saint-Paul cantons. They would need all of them and not losing any to take back control.
Right-to-Left in 2015
- Lozère (48), the only right-wing département going left in 2015, from 15/10 to 12/14 in 2015. It's been long time coming with the historic wins in the main city Mende in 2008 by Alain Bertrand and his win in 2011 at the senate election (quite an uproar !). The constituency seat stayed right-wing, however, in 2012 for 400 votes (1 percentage point), and in 2017 more comfortably (4,000 votes, 13 points). Mende stayed PS in 2014 and 2020 and so did the two cantons in 2015. There were a few narrow wins: right-wing win in Grandrieu for 40 votes, left-wing in Mende-1 for 140 votes and left-wing in Saint-Etienne-du-Valdonnez for 90 votes.
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 25, 2021 22:33:21 GMT
relique, what would you say are the most left-wing and right-wing departments these days?
|
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,137
|
Post by Foggy on Apr 26, 2021 4:50:42 GMT
Waiting for a bit more clarity in the regional elections, I give you a dive into départements. The département-level is one of the oldest, and one that was not much touched. A lot of boundaries (we draw "cantons" and called the elections "cantonales") date from the 19th century. Usually, when there were demographic growth in urban areas, the government divided the urban cantons into more cantons, but didn't merge any.
Sarkozy tried to put a reform to make a "territorial councillor" elected inside some redrawn cantons and sitting in both the département council and the regional council. The left didn't agree and Hollande repurposed the reform: there would still be two separate elections, but they did redraw the cantons and divided them by 2: they created Cantons in which 2 département councillor were elected: one male and one female. It lead to an increase of population in most if not all cantons. There were much much less councillors from rural areas because of it (sometimes, up to 6 cantons became 1 with two councillors).
For today, I only give you a bit of information on the départemental councils that flipped in 2015: 1 from right to left and 28 from left to right. The cantonales elections were in the past half renewed every three years, so that in 2004, 2008 and 2011, the left made significant gains during the Chirac and Sarkozy presidency, flipping a lot of seats and département. In 2015, every canton was up for grab (no partial renewal anymore). It lead to this huge shift to the right despite the new cantons favouring more urban areas. Give Flamby an honorary knighthood! |
|
|
|
Post by relique on Apr 26, 2021 7:18:09 GMT
relique , what would you say are the most left-wing and right-wing departments these days? For right-wing, it's easy: Haut-Rhin and then Yvelines. There might be a few other contenders like Vendée, Var, the New Rhône without the Lyon area, Haute-Marne, Alpes-Maritimes, Haute-Loire, Aube, Eure-et-Loir.
For left-wing, it might be Ariège, with a few metrpolitan contenders: Aude, Gers, Lot or Haute-Vienne. If we could add the overseas territories, we would add Guadeloupe, Guyane and Martinique.
|
|
