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Post by relique on May 23, 2021 0:18:01 GMT
Thanks to eurovision, I was able to finish this post.
Two new series of départements, those who remained controlled by the same party in 2015 but might be interesting to follow this year.
After that, I'll do a quick review of the départements that should not be lost by the controlling party, and then I'll do proper predictions given the candidacies that were officialised a few weeks ago. I didn't have them when I started these two series so there might be some sentences like "if the left unite" that could be theoretically answered today.
Right-wing départements with uncertainties:
- Hautes-Alpes (05) 16/14 to 22/8: The left controled the council between 2004 and 2008 benefitting from a rule about the age (if two candidates get the same number of votes, after two or three rounds, the older of the two is elected), but lost it in 2008. In 2014, the left managed to keep Briançon, conquered in 2009 in a by-election after 18 years of right-wing rule (the 2008 vote was voided by Conseil d'Etat because of illegal publicity by the city during the six months prior to the election). The left lost Laragne-Montéglin (4,000 inhabitants, fourth most populous city) and Veynes (3,000, fifth). In 2015, the left lost all four of the Gap cantons (the right-wing main city where there where 4 left-wing département councillors and 1 right-wing, the mayor), by 40, 80, 150 and 200 votes, Veynes (200 votes) and L'Argentière-la-Bessée (70 votes) but didn't lose Laragne-Montéglin. There was a by-election in 2016 in Gap-1 and the left conquered the canton with Pascale Boyer and Guy Blanc. In 2017, the incumbent left-wing PRG MP for the constituency around Briançon, Joël Giraud, joined LREM and was elected with this new label for a fourth term. In the constituency around Gap, the one-term incumbent PS Karine Berger was severely beaten on the first round (11% and fifth place) and now-LREM (former PS) Pascale Boyer was elected. In 2020, Briançon was lost by PS to the right because of a left wing division (49% for the right-wing list, 30% for the incumbent and 21% for another left-wing list). It's a département to watch because of the possible involvement of the two LREM MPs. Pascale Boyer will be candidate again with her incumbent ticket Guy Blanc, member of the left-wing opposition. L'Argentière-la-Bessée, that flipped for a few votes, is the territory of the other MP Giraud (junior minister for rural affairs). LREM might trouble the current majority and be important for the election of the president of the Département.
- Aveyron (12) 26/20 to 30/16; in 2014, the left kept Rodez (first more populous city, 24,000 inhabitants) but lost Millau (2nd, 22,000), Onet-le-Château (4th, 11,000), Decazeville (6th, 6,000). The left therefore lost Rodez-north (with Onet-le-Château), Lot-et-Dourdou (where Decazeville is situated) and one of the two Millau canton. For the 2017 elections, the mayor of Rodez became LREM. In the two constituencies around Rodez and Millau, the incumbent MP were UMP/LR and they were reelected. It's in the 2nd constituency around Villefrance-de-Rouergue, Decazeville, where the incumbent was PS since 2007 that LREM managed to win. In 2020, the left took back Millau, conquered Villefrance-de-Rouergue (12,000) but lost Saint-Affrique (8,000) and failed to take back Onet-le-Château and Decazeville. LREM mayor of Rodez was reelected against both a right-wing and a left-wing list (55% against 27% for the left and 18 for the right). The left-wing département councillors from Rodez-1 were on his list while the new right-wing département councillor Serge Julien was the head of the right-wing list. In Millau-2, the right-wing ticket will be in a difficult position, after the city was lost. It is the canton of Jean-François Galliard, president of the council for the right. In his village of Nant, the list he supports (3rd on the list) only managed a win by 8 votes. They won in 2015 by 350 votes against the PS ticket that included Emmanuelle Gazel, the new mayor of Millau. After taking the canton in 2015, the right-wing Sébastien David managed to take the city of Saint-Affrique. It will probably help him get reelected, although he only received 46% of the votes, the incumbent socialist 41% and 13% for a center-left list. In Villefranche-sur-Rouergue, the two left-wing councillors were part of the conquest of the city by the left in 2020 and should be reelected more easily.
- Calvados (14) 29/20 to 36/14; Caen (110,000 inhabitants) was lost in 2014 by PS after just one term for the left since 1919. The left also lost Ifs (11,000) and Ouistreham (9,000) but took Vire (12,000). In 2015 for the départementales, the left went from 8 out of 10 cantons to 3 out of 5, kept the Ifs and Vire cantons but lost Bretteville-l'Orgueilleuse, Ouistreham, Mézidon-Canon, Cabourg and Hérouville-Saint-Clair. In Lisieux, they had one out of the three cantons and lost the unique new canton. In Falaise, it was one canton each for left and right before 2015 and the right got the new canton. In 2017, PS lost two out of their three constituencies (only keeping east-Caen) one to LREM one to LR, the left-wing former Green Attard losing her constituency to LREM, while the PRG MP was reelected as LREM and LR lost their sole constituency (winning another one from PS). The new Vire mayor switched from PRG to LREM as well. In 2020, there haven't been much change in the municipales, only the left winning Falaise. In 2021, the left could do good in Bretteville-l'Orgueilleuse (50,5% in 2015 by three eliminated tickets), Cabourg (38% by two eliminated tickets), Falaise (the former MP, mayor and still départment councillor will probably retire and his ticket, Clara Dewaële-Canouel, was the head of the 'incumbent' list that lost the city in 2020), Ouistreham (lost by 310 votes). The Caen cantons are all quite balanced and it will depend on the left's unity. They did 44% on the municipales in 4 four lists, while the mayor was reelected with only 50,5% and FN going at 5,5%. The left will be united in all cantons.
- Charente-Maritime (17) 27/24 to 34/20. In the 2014 municipal election, the left lost the second and third most populous cities, Saintes (26,000) and Rochefort (25,000), and there were a few losses on smaller cities, Saint-Pierre d'Oléron (7,000), Dompierre-sur-Mer (5,000) and Marans (5,000) and wins as well in Saint-Jean-d'Angély (8,000) and Lagord (7,000). The left kept La Rochelle, of course, although there still are battles within the left there. In 2015, the left still kept the Saintes canton (there were three left-wing cantons, now one left-wing), all the La Rochelle (there were 9 old left-wing cantons, now three left-wing). In Rochefort, two of the three cantons were already right-wing, and the new unique canton was taken by the right. There were three narrow victories for the right: Lagord for 100 votes, Rochefort for 16 votes, Saint-Jean-d'Angély for 700 votes. In 2017, LREM took two PS constituencies, 1 LR while LR retained one seat on the coast with Île d'Oléron and a left-wing MP Falorni in La Rochelle managed to fend off Modem. The situation in La Rochelle is quite peculiar. The former député-maire Maxime Bono (who took over from Michel Crépeau, well-known radical de gauche -PRG- minister) had invited Ségolène Royal in 2012 to take over the constituency. She was supposed to also take the "perchoir" (president of the national assembly, speaker). Olivier Falorni, a deputy-mayor, made an alliance with Jean-François Fountaine, former PRG and former 1st vice-president of the Poitou-Charentes Region to Ségolène Royal, that said Falorni would get the constituency and Fountaine the mayorship in 2014. Falorni (supported by Valérie Trierweiler on twitter, at the time François Hollande's partner - and for quite some time, before Royal and Hollande announced their separation) announced his candidacy against Royal, Fountaine supported him, and he was elected. In 2014, the PS prefered another deputy-mayor rather than Fountaine, he lost in a primary but still ran, came second on the first round but benefitted from "vote utile" (strategic voting) by right-wing and far-right electors to help bring down the socialists, and won. In 2018 however, Falorni announced he would run against Fountaine in 2020. So they both headed a list in La Rochelle, Falorni with PRG support and Fountaine with PS and LREM. Falorni scrapped ahead on the first round, by 130 votes votes, but Fountaine came first on the second, 180 votes ahead; the third list was the Greens, while the right and far-left were eliminated. Elsewhere, the left lost Aytré (9,000), Périgny (8,000) but managed to take back Dompierre-sur-Mer and Marans. The left managed not to pick-up Saintes. On the second round, there were two right-wing lists and two left-wing lists and the opposition-right managed to pick it up from the incumbent right-wing. The competition on the right and the competition on the left may prove interesting for the 2021 départementales.
- Côtes-d'Or (21) 23/20 to 28/18; in 2014, the left kept their big cities here (Dijon, Chenôve, Quetigny and Longvic) but lost Genlis (6,000 inhabitants), Montbard (5,000) and Is-sur-Tille (4,000) and gained Marsannay-la-Côte (5,000). It made them lose both the Genlis and Montbard cantons in 2015. They also lost Nuits-Saint-Georges quite narrowly (240 votes). In 2017, the left lost their two constituencies (around Dijon) to LREM while the right lost two rural constituencies while they only retained another Dijon constituency. In 2020, the municipales were rather stable, although (former left-wing) LREM opposition leader conquered Auxonne (8,000) from the right. In Dijon (160,000), Rebsamen (PS) managed to be reelected with a good margin, considering it was a three way race against the right and the greens. The départementales will also be a three way battle. There are two Dijon cantons currently controled by the right.
- Sarthe (72) from 22/18 to 26/16; there were no changes in big cities in 2014 but the left lost Mamers (5,000 inhabitants) and Château-du-Loir (5,000). In 2015, the left did quite well in Le Mans' (140,000) cantons getting six out of seven when they had seven out of nine before; it compensated heavy losses in more rural areas, getting only two cantons in rural areas in La Flèche (2nd most populous city, 15,000) and Savigné-l'Evêque. In 2017, the left managed to keep two constituencies including parts of Le Manes (although one MP, Stéphane Le Foll, was protected by LREM which didn't select a candidate against him), losing two others to LREM, while LR kept their one constituency. These two socialist MPs were candidates when Le Mans mayor Jean-Claude Boulard (turned LREM) died in 2018. Le Foll became mayor but the other MP Marietta Karamanli still headed a list against him in 2020. Le Foll got 42% on the first round, merging with the Greens at 9,98%, while Karamanli got 13%. No other list did more than 10% so both LR, (8,5%), LREM (7%) and RN (6%) were eliminated. Le Foll won on the second round with 63%, Karamanli doubling her number of votes to 37% (with a third less participation, from 36 to 27%). It might mean that the left would be able to take the one right-wing Le Mans canton left. They would also need possibly La Suze-sur-Sarthe (left eliminated with 38% in 2015) and one more canton to flip the département. Not totally impossible. The left took back Savigny-L'Evêque city in 2020 after three right-wing terms and Yvré-l'Evêque after one (which could help in Changé canton as the former right-wing mayor of Yvré-l'Evêque was one of the départemental councillor).
- Savoie (73) from 19/18 to 30/8; Savoie and Haute-Savoie are two interesting départements, whose political aspirations seem to evolve. It's always been quite right-wing départements with some bigger cities being left-wing, mostly Chambéry, the biggest city (60,000 inhabitants). In 2014, the left lost quite a lot of cities: Chambéry, Albertville (18,000, only one left-wing term after 1945 between 2008 and 2014), Le Bourget-du-Lac (4,000), Bassens (4,000)... It made the minister Thierry Repentin lose his senate seat a few months after (he was able, in a very right-wing département, to be elected in 2004 in an election when electors have two votes for two senators; one right-wing and one left-wing senators were elected, in a bipartisan move by these "grands électeurs" who sometimes vote not along partisan lines if the candidates are respected). In 2017, socialists lost their two constituencies, the Chambéry one to Modem and the more rural one (which was only PS in 2012) to LR. LR narrowly lost (500 votes) one of their two constituencies to LREM (the one around Aix-les-Bains). In 2020, the right seem to lost touch in quite a few cities: the lost back Chambéry to former PS minister and senator Thierry Repentin, Le Bourget-du-Lac (5,000), Barberaz (5,000) to the left, while right-wing mayors were beaten in Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne (8,000), Bourg-Saint-Maurice (7,000) and La Ravoire (8,000). There seem to be one centrist, one center-left and one other among the new mayors. For départementales, even though it would be very difficult for the left to flip the département, I think it might be interesting to see if there's a shift towards more centrist or center-left candidates. In Chambéry, there is only one canton out of three who is left-wing, so there's room for improvement here for the socialist mayor (himself elected in Chambéry-1). In Albertville, the two cantons seem to be quite polarized, one, Albertville-2 still very left-wing in 2015 despite the loss of the city in 2014, and the other quite right-wing. In Bourg-Saint-Maurice, there were only right-wing candidates in 2015; we'll see how the new majority is aligned. Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne might be very interesting, like La Ravoire which saw the left eliminated with 35% of the votes in 2015. Bugey savoyard was quite close (170 votes) in 2015.
- Haute-Savoie (74) from 31/3 to 34/0; Haute-Savoie is heavily influenced, in recent politics, by former president of the National Assembly (speaker) Bernard Accoyer, MP from 1993 to 2017, mayor of Annecy-le-Vieux (20,000 inhabitants, not to be confused with Annecy, 52,000) from 1989 to 2016. In 2014, the right maintained their hold on the cities, Modem gaining Saint-Julien-en-Genevois (13,000), the left keeping most of their very few cities (Annemasse, 35,000, Cran-Gevrier, 17,000, Meythet, 8,000, Publier, 7,000, Ambilly, 6,000). In 2015 for the départementales, most of the few left-wing cantons were isolated from one another, so the change of scale drowned the left-wing cities into more right-wing cantons. There were three councillors around Evian-les-Bains and Thonon-les-Bains, but the left did very badly at the municipales there and two of the three councillors were mayor of smaller cities, Publier and Orcier which were kept in 2014 but put in larger cantons where their influence was smaller. The left lost all cantons here. In 2017, Accoyer retired and LREM picked up 4 out of the 6 LR constituencies. There were no left-wing seats. The two remaining LR were around left-wing Annemasse and at the center of the département, north of Annecy. In 2020, the left managed to flip Annecy (right-wing since 1947) with a non partisan ecologist François Astorg merging with a dissident LREM MP Frédérique Lardet, Faverges-Seythenex (8,000), La Roche-sur-Foron (12,000), Passy (11,000), and centrists took Marignier (6,000). The left lost Publier. For the départementales, we'd need to look at the two Annecy cantons, Annemasse, Faverges, Mont Blanc and La Roche-sur-Foron, not enough of course to win the département, but the elections will show if the right can lose its leadership status to the center that can be helpes by the new mayors, some left-wing but often center-left (Annecy and La Roche-sur-Foron, for example, are very bourgeois cities; not the popular-class left at all).
Left-wing départements with uncertainties:
- Alpes-de-Haute-Provence (04) 24/6 to 20/10; This département was quite socialist-leaning. In 2014, the left only lost Pierrevert (5,000) and Barcelonnette (3,000). But in 2017, the local PS was completely turned upside down by the rallying of Christophe Castaner, mayor of Forcalquier (5,000), MP and 2015 head of the PACA regional list, to Macron. He was reelected in 2017 with his new label while LREM took the second constituency to PS. The other MP, Gilbert Sauvan, socialist, retired in 2017. He was the president of the Département and, in september 2017, resigned his position a few days before he died from cancer. The election of a new president created a new alignment: 8 LREM councillors were put into opposition while 8 right-wing (UMP, UDI and right-wing independents from Manosque 1, Manosque 3, Sisteron and Barcelonnette) members of the opposition joined their votes to elect the PS new president, and joined him with three vice-presidencies. Only the two right-wing independents in Oraison remained in the opposition. The left-wing cantons remaining in the majority are Riez, Valensole, Reillanne, Manosque 2, Digne-les-Bains 1 while two cantons are divided between one left-wing member of the majority and one LREM member of the opposition: Forcalquier and Castellane. Three cantons have both councillors part of the LREM opposition: Digne-les-Bains 2, Château-Arnoux-St-Auban and Seyne. Nowadays, this opposition is saying they are not officially LREM, although its leader, senator Jean-Yves Roux, was reelected in 2020 with Castaner's support, and in his grouping there is the LREM (former PS) mayor of Digne-les-Bains, reelected with her new label in 2020. In those elections, PS lost Forcalquier, the former Castaner mayorship, to LR, Castellane to the right. Château-Arnoux-Saint-Auban was taken back by PCF while LREM won Oraison and kept Digne, Volonne and Sainte-Tulle. For the 2021 départementales, it will be very interesting to see what happens. Will the right-wing and left wing majority have a pact of no aggression in their respective cantons ? Will the reelected LREM mayor of Digne be able to keep her canton and have her majority conquer the other PS where the president of the Département is elected ? Will the left take Château-Arnoux-St-Auban back after the Green-PS ticket went LREM ? What will happen in Forcalquier between the LREM département-opposition councillor, the PS département-majority councillor and the new LR mayorship ? Will the left be able to take back the very rural left-wing canton of Seyne to the center-left senator ? There is a radical-left grouping for the 2021 elections. Will they help LREM by eliminating the PS incumbents from the second round ?
- Ardèche (07) 21/12 to 24/10; in 2014, the right had quite good municipal elections results: in the 15 most populous cities (from 2,800 to 16,000 inhabitants), they went from controling 6 cities to 12, the left only keeping Annonay (most populous, 16,000), Le Teil (8,000, 6th) and Villeneuve-de-Berg (15th, 2,800). Most of these cities had however already known right-wing mayorships, except maybe La Voulte-sur-Rhône (5,000), always left-wing since WW2. However, in the 2015 départementales, the right completely messed up, the presence of FN tickets on the second round (in two-way or three-way races) preventing UMP tickets from getting quite a lot of cantons. UMP councillors almost completely disappeared from the south of the Département, only keeping Aubenas Nord, one of the two Aubenas canton. They did better in the north of the Département with four cantons, including one out of the two Annonay cantons. In 2020, the left took back Bourg-Saint-Andéol (7,000), Viviers (3,700), Vallon-Pont-d'Arc (2,400), Ruoms (2,300, after almost 40 years), Rochemaure (2,200 after 50 years) and won Cornas (2,200) and Saint-Georges-les-Bains (2,000) while the right took back Les Vans (2,800) lost against the wave in 2014, and won Cruas (2,800) and Saint-Marcel-d'Ardèche (2,400). Divisions on the left side almost cost the left Annonay and prevented taking Aubenas. In the 2017 legislative elections, the left fare better here than elsewhere, keeping 2 out of their three constituencies, losing the south constituency around Aubenas to LR. However, the PS MP Olivier Dussopt (former mayor of Annonay) joined the government to become a minister in november 2017. His substitute, Michèle Victory, seats at the assembly with PS, in opposition to the government. What is interesting is that there is a law in France that if an MP is appointed to the government and his substitute take place in the national assembly, the substitute cannot run in the subsequent legislative election against the person he replaced. That means that if Dussopt is candidate in 2022, Michèle Victory would not be allowed to run against him. Of course, she can run as his substitute, but that doesn't seem realistic. I believe it's one of the reason Anne-Christine Lang (former PS now LREM) didn't run for LREM in the constituency she was the incumbent, as she was an incumbent only because substituting for Jean-Marie Le Guen (PS). By going into a different constituency, the validity of her candidacy didn't rest on Le Guen's willingness to be candidate. However, if the substitute didn't become an MP during the previous term, he can absolutely run against the incumbent he was the substitute for. I don't have any example in mind right now but there must be quite a lot of them. For the 2021 départementales, the right might be able to take back some southern cantons like Aubenas-2 (lost by 500 votes in a three-way race where FN got 1,600 votes), Thueyts (same thing, with FN at 1,500), Vallon-Pont-d'Arc (lost by 1,700 with FN at 1,900) and Les Vans (lost by 1,300 in a two-way race). Cheylard might also be interesting to follow (lost by 400 votes by the right in a two-way race), as will the two Annonay cantons and the other Aubenas and Tournon-sur-Rhône.
- Finistère (29) from 40/14 to 28/24/2(bretons regionalists): the 2014 municipal elections were quite bad for the socialists with close councillor to François Hollande, mayor of Quimper (63,000 inhab., 2nd most populous city) Bernard Poignant losing his mayorship to the right-wing Jolivet. This city had known a few right-wing parentheses in 1977-1989 and 2001-2008. Poignant was a PS mayor from 1989 to 2001 and 2008 to 2014 (he has also been an MP and then an MEP after he lost his constituency in 1993 and didn't get it back in 1997). The left also lost Pont-l'Abbé (8,000), Plabennec (8,000), Rosporden (7,000) and Moëlan-sur-Mer (7,000). They got back Quimperlé (12,000), Lesneven (7,000) and gained Plouguerneau (6,000). This weakened the left for the départementales, but not enough. PS kept both Quimper cantons, the Moëlan-sur-Mer canton and the Concarneau canton (which includes Rosporden). They lost Pont-l'Abbée and Plabennec, kept Quimperlé that they already controled but failed to conquer Lesneven (which includes both Lesneven and Plouguerneau). While they controled all the Best cantons, the left lost one to the right in 2015. The left-wing regionalist Carhaix mayor Christian Troadec kept his canton. The left also lost Crozon, Fouesnant and Saint-Pol-de-Léon while they won Morlaix. FN only managed to qualify in one very-left wing canton against PS, the right divided between two tickets. In 2017, LREM won all 8 Finistère seats, which were all left-wing in 2012. Only three left-wing incumbents managed to qualify to the second round, one, Richard Ferrand, as LREM. 2 incumbents were eliminated and three didn't run (including former minister Marylise Lebranchu). An Insoumis candidate qualified in Brest-center, the right in Morlaix, Landivisiau-Lesneven, Carhaix and Douarnenez-Pont-l'Abbé. The 2020 municipal elections were relatively better for the left: they got back Quimper, Morlaix (15,000) and Moëlan-sur-Mer but lost Plouzané (13,000). LREM won Crozon (8,000) from the right but lost Penmarch (5,000, the mayor was elected as PS) to the left. Despite this, the senate elections late 2020 were lost by the left. In 2014 the left went from 3 to 2 seats and the right from 1 to 2. In 2020, it was believed that, the right being still divided, the left could try and win back the third seat. They had quite an impressive list with incumbent senator Jean-Luc Fichet, president of the département Nathalie Sarrabezolles in second and Jean-Jacques Urvoas, former interior minister as third. This last name created quite a havock among the radical left and they campaigned almost exclusively an "anti-Urvoas" campaign. The Greens had their list with the regionalists and the radical left (with some center-left candidates) their own as well. LREM backed the UDI incumbent, hoping to get one elected as second on the list. They managed to do that for 7 votes, as they obtained 639 votes for 632 for the left-wing list, and 564 for the LR list. Both PS and LR got one elected. The Green list got 195 votes, the anti-Urvoas 193. Together, they would have been able to get one senator elected and prevent an LREM senator. Clearly, if many PS or left-wing local councillors went to LREM in 2017, they stayed officially left-wing in 2020 to be reelected but voted LREM in the senate elections. The big unknown here is what LREM voters will do. LREM will be present in some seats but not all. On the second round, will they go back to PS as in 2012 or LR ? Discussions on the left have allowed a PCF-PS alliance but the Greens were too demanding (asking for PS to unselect some incumbents in Brest and Quimper to make room for them) and the alliance with them failed.
- Gard (30) from 33/13 to 22/20/4(FN) in 2015; in the 2014 municipales election, the left still failed to take back Nîmes (145,000), a communist city until 2001. They lost Saint-Gilles (14,000), Aigues-Mortes (9,000), Saint-Christol-lès-Alès (7,000) and Manduel (6,000) but they took Vauvert (11,000), Le Grau-du-Roi (8,000) and Calvisson (5,000). FN won Beaucaire (16,000, 4th most populous) from the right. In the senate elections, the left lost one of their two seats to the right who won two, FN going strong with 10% but clearly far from going near one seat. In 2015, FN won Vauvert and Beaucaire from the left, getting 4 elected councillors but they didn't support the right-wing candidate against PS Bouad for the presidency. There were three cantons in the past around Alès, two controled by PCF, but with the new three Alès cantons, the left only kept one with a PCF-Green ticket. In Nîmes, there were 6 cantons, two controled by the left. Only one of the new 4 cantons was won by the left. The left was weakened here by the new drawing of the cantons, as they are stronger in rural areas and cantons weren't redrawn since the 19th century. For example the new Le Vigan canton included 5 former cantons and most of two others. It therefore went from 6 left-wing and 1 right-wing councillors to 2 left-wing in the new canton. As the most populous cities are right-wing, they gained new councillors. In 2017, FN kept their one seat, and the left all 5 seats left to LREM. However, one PS MP, Françoise Dumas, was reelected as LREM. There was one Green MP in 2012, Christophe Cavard (elected thanks to PS support) but he left the Greens to a new ecologist party that didn't leave government in 2014. He got 8% of the votes in 2017 and came 5th, with PS support. A Green candidate got 2%, 7th. In 2020, all the cities that flipped in 2014 were kept by the incumbent mayors. Marguerittes (9,000) and Roquemaure (5,000) went from right to left, Rochefort-du-Gard (8,000) from right to LREM and Vergèze (5,000) from left to center. In the senate elections, the incumbents were 1 LR, 1 Modem and 1 PS. The Modem senator was only appointed in 2020 after the municipal election. He was last (fifth: three seats and two substitutes) in the LR list in 2014 but as senator-mayor of Nîmes Jean-Paul Fournier chose his city rather than the senate seat in 2017, he resigned and was not succeeded by the third, Max Roustan, mayor of Alès who prefered his mayorship. The fourth on the list, Pascale Bories first deputy-mayor of Villeneuve-lès-Avignon took over. In 2020, she was elected mayor of her city and resigned her senate seat. That's how Modem got a seat in may 2020 ! The Modem senator had just lost his mayorship of Lirac, being candidate in Roquemaure and losing with only 23% of the vote. The left were divided. The PS first selected Alexandre Pissas, but as his profile was center-left and macron-leaning, the rest of the left didn't want him. They insisted PS would select Denis Bouad, president of the Département. They eventually did and he was supported by all left-wing parties. Pissas maintained his list and cost the left the third seat. Incumbent LR Vivette Lopez got 672 votes, Bouad 663, RN 203, Cardenes (Modem) 170 and Pissas 118. The third seat between LR and the left really was close. Bouad left the presidency of the Département to PS Françoise Laurent-Perrigot. The left was eliminated in 2015 from Alès-2 with 37% of the votes. They are now united in only one ticket and might be able to take back the canton. Bagnols-sur-Cèze might be close as the PS incumbent is...Alexandre Pissas. As in 2015, there are multiple left-wing tickets (even a yellow-vest ticket). All the Nîmes cantons could be interesting, as they are quite balanced and with a big RN vote. The left only fielded one ticket for each canton, and they might hurt the right which is a bit more divided (three tickets in Nîmes-1, 1 in Nîmes-2 which is already left-wing, 2 including a LREM one in Nîmes-3, and two in Nîmes-4). The first round will be important. The left could qualify against RN in the 4 cantons and win all seats, but the right could as well. The right is absent from three cantons, which is quite exceptional, Quissac (2 left-wing, 1 RN tickets), Rousson (1 PCF, 1 RN tickets) and Le Vigan (1 left-wing, 1 RN). It's not a good sign for them.
- Landes (40) from 24/6 to 20/10 in 2015. Landes is a heavily socialist département, and was controled for a long time by a big socialist name, Henri Emmanuelli, who died in 2017 during the presidential campaign. He was an MP from 1978 to his death at 71. He was also president of the département from 1982 to his death as well. There were a few periods of time when he wasn't, when he was a government minister and when he was deprived of his civil rights for two years following a conviction in a financial case against PS (he was the treasurer at the time). Part of the left-wing part of the PS, he was a loyalist and defended Jospin or Hollande even when they objectively ran a center-left (if not something else) government platform. Les Landes is also one of the last placed where Modem usually get good results, with Mont-de-Marsan (30,000 inhabitants, most populous city) won by Modem loyalist Geneviève Darrieussecq in 2008 after 46 years of left-wing mayors. Darrieussecq became minister in june 2017. In 2014, the right won Saint-Pierre-du-Mont (9,000), Saint-Vincent-de-Tyrosse (8,000) and Aire-sur-l'Adour (6,000). In 2015, given the redrawing of the cantons, the left lost Marensin-Sud (former canton of Soustons) and Adour-Armagnac, a merger of three cantons, two left-wing and one right-wing. The left also lost the two Mont-de-Marsan cantons that they still controled to a Modem-UMP alliance. In 2017, the PS lost two seats, one to Modem Darrieussecq and one to LREM. PS kept the third seat, the one where Emmanuelli was elected, with Boris Vallaud, his designated successor, keeping the seat for 700 votes. In 2020, the left lost Dax (21,000, 2nd most populous city) to a centrist but won back Saint-Vincent-de-Tyrosse and gained Mimizan (7,000) from the right and Saint-Martin-de-Seignanx (5,000) to a (former PS) LREM. Clearly, les Landes with the death of Emmanuelli is a département that could be "up for grabs" by the presidential majority. However, the PS MP Boris Vallaud decided to put all his forces in the battle to keep political control of the Département, being candidate, quite bravely, in one of the few right-wing canton, Adour Armagnac. His popularity will therefore be tested here in a canton lost 55/45 by the left in 2015. The incumbents, however, decided not to run and there are no other left-wing tickets (but two right-wing). He therefore is in quite a good position to flip the canton and strengthen his party's control. The left is not as divided as in other départements, but it's not a perfect unity as well. This time, in Mont-de-Marsan, Modem and LR field one ticket each.
- Loire-Atlantique (44) from 36/20/3(independent left-wing) to 32/30 in 2015. In the 2014 municipal elections, the left lost Sainte-Luce-sur-Loire (13,000), Blain (9,000), Vallet (9,000), Saint-Philbert-de-Grand-Lieu (8,000), Thouaré-sur-Loire (8,000), Trignac (7,000), Donges (7,000), Clisson (7,000), Sucé-sur-Erdre (6,000) and Vigneux-de-Bretagne (6,000) but kept the big cities (Nantes, 285,000, Saint-Nazaire, 67,000, Saint-Herblain, 43,000 and Rezé, 40,000) and won Pontchâteau (10,000). Modem lost Machecoul (6,000) to the right. In 2015, the left kept the département for 1 canton only. The left lost Carquefou, La Chapelle-sur-Erdre, Clisson, Guérande and Vallet, but won all Nantes cantons (two nantes councillors were right-wing before 2015) and won Pontchâteau following their municipal winning. The closest wins by the left were in Blain (501 votes over a 15,700 electorate) and Saint-Herblain-2 (512 over a 15,700 electorate). In 2017, the left defended 9 of the 10 seats and all seats were won by LREM and Modem. One of them, François de Rugy, was elected since 2007 as a Green (supported by PS). He's been president of the national assembly and government minister and is now heading the regional list for LREM. He is one of the best-placed LREM candidate in these regional elections. In 2020 however, LREM didn't do much. They lost Ancenis-Saint-Géréon (11,000) to the left (former UDI mayor). The left also gained Orvault (27,000), won back Sainte-Luce-sur-Loire and Thouaré-sur-Loire. They lost Bouguenais (20,000) and Montoir-de-Bretagne (7,000). Two former PS départemental councillor now LREM remained in the left-majority until today, but are not running for reelection. Two former Greens are in the same case. The win in Orvault will strengthen the left-wing candidates in Saint-Herblain-2, even though no incumbent is running. Blain will clearly be a very heavily contested canton. The left might have a shot in Ancenis and Carquefou (where there are both Sainte-Luce and Thouaré) following the municipales.
- Lot-et-Garonne (47) from 25/15 to 26/16 in 2015; in the 2014 municipales, the left lost Marmande (18,000 inhab, 3rd most populous city) and Sainte-Livrade-sur-Lot (6,000, 7th). They gained Le Passage (9,000, 4th). In the following départementales, there was a relative stability, with the right doing well in their city of Agen, winning two of the four cantons, the left getting only one (they had 3 out of the 5 previous ones) while an independent ticket took Agen-1 against a right-wing and a left-wing ticket. There were a lot of quite close results, with many three-way races with FN that were quite balanced. The left lost Villeneuve-sur-Lot-1 because of a very divided and populous field: four left-wing tickets got 42% of the votes, FN 29%, another far-right 5% and the only right-wing ticket 23%, getting qualified and gaining the cantons thanks to the left-wing votes on the second round. In 2017, LREM won the two left-wing seats and the LR seat, the left eliminated every where, FN qualifying in two seats. In 2020, the left lost their city of Villeneuve-sur-Lot (23,000, 2nd) to the new LR départemental councillor of Villeneuve-sur-Lot-1. This city's mayor for PS was, between 2001 and 2012 Jérôme Cahuzac, budget minister for Hollande and accused of tax fraud and evasion to switzerland. It was quite surprising that the left didn't lose the city back in 2014. The two right-wing lists got both 13% and merged with a left-wing list at 14%. However, they only got 27% on the second round, the new PS mayor getting 43% and FN 30%. This time, the left was more divided with two list at 21% on the first round refusing to merge while the right-wing list got 35% and RN 15%. On the second round, the right-wing list got just short of 50%, one left-wing list 25%, the incumbent 17% and FN only 8% (the FN electorate most probably rallying the right-wing list). However, the left took back the city of Marmande, benefitting from divisions on the right (despite a merger of the two right wing lists that got 32 and 20%, they only got 45% on the second round). In 2021, the left have impressively allied to present only one ticket in most cantons. Only in the right-wing Confluent there are three left-wing tickets. In Agen-1, they even didn't field any candidate to give their support to the independents. The right, on the other hand, is divided in several cantons. This might save the left in the end, possibly qualifying against only FN in many cantons (for a three-way race to occur, the third ticket needs to get 12,5% of registered voters; as participation might be as low as 40%, the frequency of three-way races might be very very low).
- Nièvre (58) from 23/9 to 20/12/2(independents) in 2015; this rural département was quite heavily controled by the left for cities above 1,000 inhabitants. In 2014, however, the left lost the three most populous cities: Nevers (36,000), Cosne-Cours-sur-Loire (10,000) and Varennes-Vauzelles (10,000). It lead to a defeat by the left in the Cosne-Cours-sur-Loire canton in 2015 (before that, there was one left-wing and one right-wing incumbent), in Varennes-Vauzelles with two independents supported by the new independent mayor (they then more or less joined the left-wing départemental majority) and an even split between left and right in the four Nevers cantons (before that, the left controled three of the four cantons). The left also lost the Guérigny canton after redrawing extended it from 8 to 33 small cities, losing Varennes-Vauzelles which was the city of the communist incumbent. The left also lost Clamecy because of their divisions. In 2017, PS lost the two Nièvre seats to LREM, despite having two rather heavy-weight on the field with former minister Gaëtan Gorce, senator who decided to run to help his party and Christian Paul, leader of the left-wing list of the PS during Hollande's term. Paul managed to qualify to the second round but Gorce only came third, eliminated by FN. The right did quite poorly here with fifth placed in both constituencies. In 2020, the right lost Cosne-Cours-sur-Loire to an independent list that included some left-wing candidates (including the Green candidate for the canton in the 2021 election) and Varennes-Vauzelles, taken back by the former communist mayor. In Nevers, the new mayor Denis Thuriot became a member of LREM and was reelected. In 2021, the left is a little bit less divided than in 2015, but still, there are two tickets in most cantons. There is only one in Cosne-Cours-sur-Loire that will try to take back the canton from the beaten LR mayor, in Decize, in Nevers-2 and Nevers-3 and in Varennes-Vauzelles (against the centrist incumbents that lost the city). The LREM mayor Thuriot failed getting a senator elected in 2017, the left voting for a right-wing senator (for the first time in history) to prevent LREM from getting a seat. He presented candidates in Nevers-1 and 4 against other right-wing candidates and is quite active in trying to win the département.
- Pas-de-Calais (62) from 63/14 to 40/26/12(FN) in 2015 in this very heavily left-wing big département. In 2014, the left lost the city of Hénin-Beaumont (27,000, 7th most populous city) to FN Steeve Briois in what has become the Marine Le Pen stronghold. The left also lost Béthune (25,000, 8th), Saint-Omer (14,000, 14th) and Arques (10,000) to UDI, Berck (15,000, 12th) and Marck (10,000) to LR and Etaples (11,000) to the right. The left only managed to take Le Portel (10,000) and Coulmogne (6,000) although it must be said that among the 71 cities with more than 5,000 inhabitants, only 11 were right-wing in 2014, so the progression for the left was harder ! In 2015, the elections were quite a bloodbath for the left, and they barely kept their absolute majority. 6 left-wing cantons mostly from the (former) mining communities were won by FN: Harnes, Hénin-Beaumont-1, 2, Lens, Lillers and Wingles, the left keeping the 11 other cantons in their local "red wall" (Aire-sur-la-Lys, Auchel, Béthune, Beuvry, Noeux-les-Mines, Bruay-la-Buissière, Bully-les-Mines, Douvrin, Liévin, Avion and Carvin). In their other stronghold of Audo-Marois and Boulonnais, the left kept the two Boulogne-sur-Mer cantons, Outreau, Desvres, Lumbres, Saint-Omer and Calais-2. In the two other Calais seats, the right won easily, as well as in their new city of Marck. In the south of the département, the right easily won in their stronghold of Etaples and Berck they also won in Auxi-le-Château, Avesnes-le-Comte, Bapaume, Fruges and Saint-Pol-sur-Ternoise. The right also did good around Arras with two of the three cantons (they only controled one of the three before). In 2017, the left in disarray completely vanished with LR keeping their only seat near around Etaples and Berck and winning the Calais seat. Two PS MPs were reelected as LREM in audo-marois and arrageois. FN won four seats around Hénin-Beaumont, Liévin, Lens and Bruay-la-Buissière. I do believe they won because they were facing unknown LREM (or Modem) candidates. The left was eliminated from ALL second rounds despite totaling (an abysmal, for Pas de Calais) 30% in the département. In Lens the left got 42% among 6 candidates, 41% in Saint-Omer, 40% in Bruay-la-Buissière and 36% in Liévin. In 2020, the left lost a big city: Bruay-la-Buissière to FN MP Ludovic Pajot, after a very bloody division among the left-wing majority. Elsewhere, it was quite stable, with the left taking back Arques (from a now LREM mayor) but losing Dourges (6,000) and Coulogne. For the 2021 départementales, the left is sometimes united but there are still some divisions. They are united in important cantons Auchel, Avion, Bapaume, Beuvry, Brébières (in a two-way race against RN), Hénin-1 and Wingles (2-way against RN). In some other cantons, the right is absent and there are sometimes two or three left-wing tickets against a RN ticket (Outreau, Noeux-les-Mines, Hénin-2, Harnes, Carvin, Bully-les-Mines, Bruay-la-Buissière, Boulogne-1 and 2 and Aire-sur-la-Lys). In 2020, FN did quite badly in most cities and the winning of Bruay-la-Buissière was a bit against the global trend. They got 7% in Béthune, 21% in Beuvry, 22% in Billy-Montigny, 15% in Boulogne, 25% in Bully-les-Mines, 18% in Calais, 29% in Carvin, 25% in Harnes, 23% in Lens, 16% in Liévin, 22% in Lillers, 26% in Méricourt... They only managed to get two seats in the agglomeration council of the Lens-Liévin area (which is quite powerful and in their stronghold, although Hénin-Beaumont doesn't belong to it). In the Hénin agglomeration council, they only got 14 out of 47, and 11 of them are from Hénin. Control of it was an official goal of theirs. The left might be able to take back Harnes, Lens, Lillers and Wingles from RN and Bapaume from the right. However they might lose Béthune. It will be interesting to follow left-wing Desvres as the LREM (former PS) MP Brigitte Bourguignon has decided to be candidate. She is facing a tough by-election next week and it will be indicative of wether she also has a shot in this canton. LREM is mostly absent in the other parts of the département.
- Pyrénées-Orientales (66) from 21/10 to 22/12. It is a département that is trending more and more right-wing (and even far-right). The 2014 election was quite stable with PCF losing Elne (8,000), and in 2015, the left managed to keep three Perpignan-based cantons which was quite a performance. In 2017, the three PS seats went for LREM while the LR seat around Perpignan was won by FN Louis Aliot. Three years later in 2020, Aliot managed to win Perpignan. The left lost Pia (9,000) but communists took back Elne. There were a lot of independents getting cities which might soon become more clearly left or right-wing. For the 2021 départemental elections, the incumbent PS president Hermeline Malherbe "bravely" decided to leave her Perpignan canton that is trending RN and decided to run in Les Aspres. RN has big ambitions in this département and they might get 3 or 4 of the 6 Perpignan cantons. Elsewhere, it will be difficult for them. They are still hoping to at least make the left lose their absolute majority. In Pyrénées, the right might lose the Pyrénées Catalanes canton which was won last time by...Jean Castex. The PM resigned in 2020 and is not running.
- Haute-Saône (70) from 23/9 to 22/12; this very rural (only five cities above 5,000 inhabitants), very working-class département is trending away from the left. In 2014, the left managed to keep their two 'big' cities but there were a few changes in smaller cities, going both ways. The main city switching side was Fougerolles, 3,800 inhabitants, from left to right. In 2015, the left managed to keep control of the département mostly thanks to a strong FN that yet didn't take any canton. 4 cantons were won by the left in left vs FN two way races in the second round. 7 cantons were won by the left in three-way races. In 2017, the two seats, one PS and one LR were won by LREM, always against FN on the second round. The left only got less than 20% of the votes, of course very divided. This didn't yield to a lot of turmoil in the 2020 municipal elections, incumbents getting mostly reelected. Only cities with less than 2,000 inhabitants have known a change of majority. In 2021, it is possible that the incumbents will face a similar boost. The left disappeared from a few right-wing cantons AND a left-wing one ! In Saint-Loup-sur-Semouse, the left-wing incumbents are not running and the left hasn't fielded any replacement ! It is, I think, unique in France. The election might be difficult for the left, even though it is not that divided (they lack competitors, maybe !).
- Tarn (81) from 31/15 to 26/20 in 2015, it is also a rural département trending (maybe less quickly) more and more right-wing. In 2014, the (Carmaux is the city of Jaurès) left lost Gaillac (14,000, 3rd) and Labruguiere (6,000) among the twelve cities above 5,000 inhabitants, with 7 left-wing incumbents. In 2015, the left lost the Gaillac canton and a few others (the left had 5 of the 6 incumbents in Albi and only managed to get two of the four new cantons). As in other previous départements, the left is here more powerful in rural areas, so the redrawing has weakened them with a lot of left-wing cantons merging while more urban right-wing areas getting more seats. In 2017, LREM took the two PS seats while the center-right incumbent Folliot was reelected without any LREM candidate against him. As in other départements, there weren't much turmoil in the municipal election. Both the lacking of local activists from LREM and the covid context yielded to many more reelections than what we used to see. In 2020, there were also senate elections. Tarn usually elected two PS senators since... at least the second world war (there might have been one or two who weren't PS, though). In 2014, the center-right mayor of Albi Philippe Bonnecarrère managed to be elected with still a PS Thierry Carcenac as a second senator. In 2020, Carcenac didn't seek reelection and the center-right MP Philippe Folliot was elected as the second senator. Two right-wing senators might be something new for Tarn. Although it wasn't an easy election for Folliot, because on the second round, he only got 299 votes, ahead of a center-left at 291 while two other left-wing candidates maintained their candidacy for the only seat left (Bonnecarrère was reelected on the first round), getting 153 ans 75 votes. Clearly, the left's division here cost them a seat. In 2021, the left is divided in some cantons as well. It will be interesting to see if the center-right, again supported by LREM can weaken the left here.
- Seine-Saint-Denis (93) from 29/11 to 24/18, what was the communist-socialist stronghold of the "red belt" of the Parisian region is still a strong left-wing département, but also quite gained by islamist communautarisme. And in that clientelist game, both the left and the right (and specifically the center-right UDI of Jean-Christophe Lagarde) can sometimes be quite efficient. In 2014, UDI won Saint-Ouen (48,000) and Bobigny (47,000) from communists or affiliated communists, after Lagarde took Drancy (67,000) in 2001 from PCF, Chevreau took Epinay-sur-Seine (55,000) also in 2001 from PS. PS lost Aulnay-sous-Bois (82,000) to LR and lost back Aubervilliers (76,000) to PCF. PCF also took back Montreuil (103,000) to Greens former presidential candidate Dominique Voynet and kept Saint-Denis (108,000) but lost also Le Blanc-Mesnil (52,000) to UMP and Bagnolet (35,000) to PS. In relatively smaller cities of this very urban département (40 cities, only 4 below 10,000 inhabitants), the left lost Livry-Gargan (42,000) and Villepinte (36,000). PS won the département from PCF in 2008 with Claude Bartolone (who became president of the national assembly in 2012). The local elections are usually bloodbaths among the left. Following the municipales, in 2015 the right took Aulnay-sous-Bois, Le Blanc-Mesnil, Livry-Gargan and Saint-Ouen. PCF managed to keep Bobigny canton. PS lost the Bondy canton despite keeping the city but took Epinay-sur-Seine to UDI mayor. The left also lost in Sevran even though the city remained Green. In 2017, out of the 12 seats, one had a communist incumbent (former national secretary Marie-George Buffet), one a former communist François Asensi (now Ensemble!), one a UDI and the others socialists. PS lost all their seats, UDI managed to reelect Lagarde. Communists reelected Buffet and won one seat from PS in Saint-Denis, both with Insoumis support. Asensi transmitted his seat to Clémentine Autain (Ensemble! supported by Insoumis). Of the remaining 8 seats one was taken by LR (around Aulnay, Les Pavillons and part of Bondy), three by LREM (around Noisy-le-Grand, Villemomble and Clichy-sous-Bois, all in south-east of the département) and four by Insoumis (around Saint-Denis-Saint-Ouen, Aubervilliers, Montreuil and Noisy-le-Sec). In 2020, the Insoumis didn't manage to keep the leadership among the left. PS managed to get back Saint-Denis from PCF and Saint-Ouen from UDI, but lost Bondy to LR. PCF lost Aubervilliers to UDI, Saint-Denis to PS and Villetaneuse to a left-wing independent but won back Bobigny and Noisy-le-Sec from UDI. The left also lost Neuilly-sur-Marne. Clearly the right have a shot in Aubervilliers but they will be on the defense in Saint-Ouen and Sevran. The left-wing alliances are quite a mess, different from canton to canton.
- Val-de-Marne (94) from 31/18 to 28/22. It is the last communist-controled département left, after the loss of rural Allier in 2015. It is also part of the red-belt of the parisian region. It is endangered by a trend towards the right here, with sometimes alliances between the right and some anti-communist left-wing (often Greens, sometimes socialists). In 2014, the communists lost Villejuif (56,000) to such an alliance that exploded during the following six years. They also lost Limeil-Brévannes (21,000) and La Queue-en-Brie (12,000) to the right. PS lost L'Hay-les-Roses (31,000), Ablon-sur-Seine (5,000), Marolles-en-Brie (5,000) and Noiseau (5,000) to the right. Otherwise, Modem took Chennevières-sur-Marne (18,000) from UMP. In 2015, following these changes, PS lost L'Hay-les-Roses canton to the right, but communists kept Villejuif. They lost Villeneuve-Saint-Georges (despite keeping the city the year before) to UMP. Villiers-sur-Marne was also lost by PS to the right (the city was already right-wing). Weirdly, communists didn't have any incumbent in 2017, having lost in 2012 the long time communist Ivry-sur-Seine constituency to MRC Kremlin-Bicêtre mayor Jean-Luc Laurent (supported by PS). PCF didn't win any constituency in 2017 but Insoumis conquered this constituency. PS managed to keep a constituency around Alfortville but lost -with their allies PRG and Greens- the 5 others to LREM. LR had four incumbents but only managed to keep two constituencies. They lost one to LREM and one to Modem. In the 2020 municipales elections, PCF managed to get back Villejuif but lost Champigny-sur-Marne (78,000), Choisy-le-Roi (45,000), Villeneuve-Saint-Georges (34,000) and Valenton (15,000) to the right. Otherwise, it stayed basically the same. Jean-Luc Laurent took back le Kremlin-Bicêtre for a few votes against his former first deputy that he himself gave the mayorship to in 2016. There might be a by-election soon because of irregularities. For 2021, there is a bit more solidarity among left-wing parties. The incumbent president will not face any left-wing competition in his Champigny-sur-Marne-1 canton where he might face a tough challenge. In the other Champigny canton and in Choisy-le-Roi, there is only one left-wing ticket, which might help get the seats. It will still be quite tough for the left here.
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