Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on May 18, 2014 18:08:09 GMT
I'm with Al on this. Not only would it be funny but it is a simple case of natural selection. If a party's supporters are too dumb to vote for that party I am quite happy for their views to be misrepresented.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 19, 2014 17:54:10 GMT
Truth lies in between
Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb
ComRes polls EP2014 poll for r@itvnews:
Con 20%, Lab 27%, LD 7%, UKIP 33%, Greens 6%, Others 7% - based on all certain to vote
Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb
LAB has 3% EP2014 lead with ComRes EP2014 for ITV NEWS based on all expressing voting intention
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 19, 2014 21:15:39 GMT
How I would love this to be true
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
EXCL: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead in euro elections as UKIP slips, + Libs down to 5th. LAB 28%, UKIP 24%, CON 21%, GRN 12%, LD 10%
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on May 19, 2014 21:34:56 GMT
I hadn't believed it until today but I'm now almost convinced that the Lib Dems will end up with only one or two MEPs in the SE, SW or London. A few more polls like that and I'll be convinced.
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seanf
Non-Aligned
Posts: 631 
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Post by seanf on May 20, 2014 6:18:54 GMT
Yougov have UKIP 4% ahead among those who are certain to vote. UKIP 29%, Lab 25%, Con 19%. Not that different from Com Res, on a like for like basis.
It comes down to whether a harsh turnout filter gives the most accurate result, in a low turnout election.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2014 8:40:24 GMT
if you go for filters I think better than 100% is 75% as a measure.
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seanf
Non-Aligned
Posts: 631
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Post by seanf on May 20, 2014 11:25:51 GMT
Opinium in the Daily Mail have UKIP 31%, Labour 29%, Con. 20%, LD and Green 5% each.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
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Post by Sibboleth on May 20, 2014 14:49:22 GMT
The trouble with filters is that many people aren't great at accurately assessing their likelihood to vote.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2014 15:08:34 GMT
This election has become UKIPs to lose and UKIP voters will be more motivated to get out and vote on Thursday.
Clegg and lib dems will be preparing for the disaster on Thursday and may want to call time on the coalition.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
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Post by Sibboleth on May 20, 2014 15:13:06 GMT
But what is 'a UKIP voter', exactly?
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873
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Post by Pimpernal on May 20, 2014 15:51:45 GMT
Two new polls showing UKIP leading for the Euros:
Opinium:
UKIP 31%
Lab 29%
Conservatives 20%
Greens 5%
Lib Dems 5%
Others 8%
TNS/BMRB
UKIP 31%
Lab 28%
Cons 21%
Lib Dems 7%
Others (inc Greens) 13%
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2014 16:04:05 GMT
see those polls seem sane to me and represent what I think will be the result.
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Post by bossmark on May 20, 2014 16:48:59 GMT
Two new polls showing UKIP leading for the Euros: Opinium: UKIP 31% Lab 29% Conservatives 20% Greens 5% Lib Dems 5% Others 8% TNS/BMRB UKIP 31% Lab 28% Cons 21% Lib Dems 7% Others (inc Greens) 13% If these polls are correct on Thursday would it mean that Lib Dems lose all their MEPs apart from 1? |
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873
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Post by Pimpernal on May 20, 2014 21:07:57 GMT
Apparently a new Survation Poll:
UKIP 32
LAB 27
CON 23
LD 9
GRN 4
oth 7
I think this poll would probably see at least 3 LDs retain seats and no greens... unlike the earlier polls...
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,808
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 20, 2014 21:14:24 GMT
Apparently a new Survation Poll: UKIP 32 LAB 27 CON 23 LD 9 GRN 4 oth 7 I think this poll would probably see at least 3 LDs retain seats and no greens... unlike the earlier polls... But only if that's uniform across the whole UK. Green could, for example, get 40% in South-West and 1% everywhere else which would give a UK-wide vote of 4.9% (ish). |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2014 21:24:56 GMT
Interesting stat
Nearly 38% of voters UNAWARE European elections take place on Thursday Survation polling for Daily Mirror
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Post by marksenior on May 20, 2014 21:26:21 GMT
Apparently a new Survation Poll: UKIP 32 LAB 27 CON 23 LD 9 GRN 4 oth 7 I think this poll would probably see at least 3 LDs retain seats and no greens... unlike the earlier polls... But only if that's uniform across the whole UK. Green could, for example, get 40% in South-West and 1% everywhere else which would give a UK-wide vote of 4.9% (ish). The regional sub samples in this poll are small and strange . Lib Dems would win seats in London , North East and Wales , probably in the South East but not in South West . |
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Post by No Offence Alan on May 20, 2014 22:01:27 GMT
Interesting stat Nearly 38% of voters UNAWARE European elections take place on Thursday Survation polling for Daily Mirror Probably because Labour hardly mention Europe in their literature? |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on May 20, 2014 23:28:44 GMT
But only if that's uniform across the whole UK. Green could, for example, get 40% in South-West and 1% everywhere else which would give a UK-wide vote of 4.9% (ish). The regional sub samples in this poll are small and strange . Lib Dems would win seats in London , North East and Wales , probably in the South East but not in South West . No, No, No There is nothing strange about the regional sub samples. They are simply regional sub samples and as such cannot be treated seriously. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2014 23:31:41 GMT
Interesting stat Nearly 38% of voters UNAWARE European elections take place on Thursday Survation polling for Daily Mirror Probably because Labour hardly mention Europe in their literature? you presume people read it ? |
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