Euro polling

[Deleted]

I'm told this sitewww.pollwatch2014.eu/ goes live with predictions today.

[Devonian]

From Mike Smithson's twitter

Mike Smithson ‏@msmithsonpb · 4 hrs
@johnrentoul reporting that IoS ComRes poll has EP2014 numbers which are "rather different from how people say they'll vote in GE.." #UKIP

[Devonian]

ComRes Euro poll

UKIP     30%

Labour 28%

Con       21%

Lib Dem 8%

Green    6%

www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/15/for-the-first-time-ukip-takes-the-lead-in-a-poll-for-the-may-euro-elections/

[Rose Tinted Lane]

Of course, this is with a different certainty to vote filter. I'd also like to see whether areas that are also going to hold local elections on the same day (ie. mets and London boroughs) have had their higher turnouts weighted in for this poll.

Still, interesting.

[Andrew_S]

Mar 15, 2014 19:34:11 GMT Devonian said:

ComRes Euro poll

UKIP     30%

Labour 28%

Con       21%

Lib Dem 8%

Green    6%

www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/15/for-the-first-time-ukip-takes-the-lead-in-a-poll-for-the-may-euro-elections/

Horrible poll for Cameron & co.

[Pimpernal]

Twitter is going to be fecking tedious tonight ...

[marksenior]

Some really big distortions applied by Comres in the effort to get a poll showing UKIP in the lead which are not fully explained in their detailed data tables . The reality is that with the same methodology UKIP VI was slightly down on the previous Comres Euro poll

[Devonian]

Scotland figures within the ComRes poll

SNP 39%, Lab 19%, Con 13%, LbD 12%, GRN 8%, UKIP 6%

[Devonian]

Lord Ashcroft has tweeted

Lord Ashcroft ‏@lordashcroft 27m

The ComRes poll tonight suggests 26 MEPS for LAB, 24 for UKIP, 15 for CON, 1 for LDEM and 1 for GRN.

He doesn't give a number for SNP/PC

[johnr]

Mar 15, 2014 21:16:06 GMT Devonian said:

Scotland figures within the ComRes poll

SNP 39%, Lab 19%, Con 13%, LbD 12%, GRN 8%, UKIP 6%

Based on a sub-sample of 181 people, where more of them say they voted SNP in 2010 than voted Labour. Think that means we can take those numbers with a big pile of NaCl.

[johnr]

Mar 15, 2014 20:30:28 GMT marksenior said:

Some really big distortions applied by Comres in the effort to get a poll showing UKIP in the lead which are not fully explained in their detailed data tables . The reality is that with the same methodology UKIP VI was slightly down on the previous Comres Euro poll

Mike Smithson is saying that there are actually 1/3 more Labour voters than UKIP in the poll, but the certainty to vote filter turns the result around.

[Deleted]

Mar 15, 2014 21:30:34 GMT johnr said:

Mar 15, 2014 20:30:28 GMT marksenior said:

Some really big distortions applied by Comres in the effort to get a poll showing UKIP in the lead which are not fully explained in their detailed data tables . The reality is that with the same methodology UKIP VI was slightly down on the previous Comres Euro poll

Mike Smithson is saying that there are actually 1/3 more Labour voters than UKIP in the poll, but the certainty to vote filter turns the result around.

Labour have had pretty severe turnout issues in the euros - might be overestimated here though, what with mets electing this time around.

[marksenior]

Mar 15, 2014 21:30:34 GMT johnr said:

Mar 15, 2014 20:30:28 GMT marksenior said:

Some really big distortions applied by Comres in the effort to get a poll showing UKIP in the lead which are not fully explained in their detailed data tables . The reality is that with the same methodology UKIP VI was slightly down on the previous Comres Euro poll

Mike Smithson is saying that there are actually 1/3 more Labour voters than UKIP in the poll, but the certainty to vote filter turns the result around.

That is correct , however there are other issues . The tables do not actually show that they have applied the 100% certainty to vote filter directly on the Euro VI figures . The tables given show it applied to the GE figures and apparently assumes that those switching from a GE VI to a different Euro VI will have the same certainty to vote as someone who stays with the same VI in both elections .
This could just be bad presentation of the figures but I suspect that they wanted a certain result and not too much interrogation of how it was achieved .

[Davıd Boothroyd]

According to Matthew Goodwin, if you remove the certainty to vote factor, Labour is ahead (but only by 22% to 18% for UKIP; presumably that includes don't knows).

[marksenior]

Mar 15, 2014 21:48:39 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

According to Matthew Goodwin, if you remove the certainty to vote factor, Labour is ahead (but only by 22% to 18% for UKIP; presumably that includes don't knows).

Yep , that includes DK and WNV . scaled up it is Lab 31 UKIP 26

[marksenior]

Mar 15, 2014 21:28:23 GMT johnr said:

Mar 15, 2014 21:16:06 GMT Devonian said:

Scotland figures within the ComRes poll

SNP 39%, Lab 19%, Con 13%, LbD 12%, GRN 8%, UKIP 6%

Based on a sub-sample of 181 people, where more of them say they voted SNP in 2010 than voted Labour. Think that means we can take those numbers with a big pile of NaCl.

Not quite true , more said they voted Other including SNP than Labour in 2010 , I agree the sample had a clear SNP bias .

[Deleted]

Mar 15, 2014 21:28:23 GMT johnr said:

Mar 15, 2014 21:16:06 GMT Devonian said:

Scotland figures within the ComRes poll

SNP 39%, Lab 19%, Con 13%, LbD 12%, GRN 8%, UKIP 6%

Based on a sub-sample of 181 people, where more of them say they voted SNP in 2010 than voted Labour. Think that means we can take those numbers with a big pile of NaCl.

Very true, although the one Scotland EU poll so far had the SNP almost as far ahead as this sample.

[johnr]

Our Scottish Nationalist friends seem to be celebrating early tonight. Seems a small sub-sample with dodgy weighting is the most accurate poll since sliced bread.

[libfozzy]

Mar 15, 2014 22:03:32 GMT johnr said:

Our Scottish Nationalist friends seem to be celebrating early tonight. Seems a small sub-sample with dodgy weighting is the most accurate poll since sliced bread.

So no change there really.

[Devil Wincarnate]

A surprise reverse for the Greens if that polling is anywhere near accurate.  A loss in London rather than the South East I would presume?