Euro polling

[Deleted]

Mar 31, 2014 22:05:02 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Averaging all the polls since the start of the year we get: Lab 31%, UKIP 25%, Con 24%, Lib Dem 9%, Green 5%, Others 4%, SNP 1%, BNP 0.5%, Plaid 0.34% which gives us the following tallies:

Conservatives win 153 local area counts (-119 on 2009) winning 19 MEP's (-6)
Labour win 143 local areas (+84 on 2009) winning 28 MEP's (+15)
Liberal Democrats win 2 local areas (-9 on 2009) winning 3 MEP's (-8)
United Kingdom Independence Party win 63 local areas (+54 on 2009) winning 18 MEP's (+5)
Plaid Cymru win 4 local areas (unchanged on 2009) winning 0 MEP's (-1)
Scottish National Party win 15 local areas (-7 on 2009) winning 1 MEP (-1)
Greens win 0 local areas (-3 on 2009) winning 0 MEP's (-2)
British National Party win 0 local areas (unchanged on 2009) winning 0 MEP's (-2)

Mibbe best adjust the SNP score based upon the two EU polls conducted this year in Scotland? (Low to high forties - which is ~3% at least) 

[Devonian]

Comres

UKIP 30% (nc)
Labour 30% (+2)
Conservative 22% (+1)
Lib Dem 8% (nc)
Other 10% (-3)

www.comres.co.uk/poll/1147/the-people-european-parliament-voting-intention-poll.htm

So no sign there of the debates having any impact on voting intentions for the Lib Dems or UKIP. Also the Other 10% (-3) includes Green Party 3% (-3)

[Devonian]

Survation

Labour 34% (+2)
UKIP    27% (+4)
Conservative  21% (-6)
Lib Dem 9% (+2)
Other 9% (-1)

survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Maria-Miller-Tables-FINAL.pdf

[Deleted]

Disastrous pair of 3%ers for the Greens

[Andrew_S]

Apr 5, 2014 22:06:02 GMT @rlemkin said:

Disastrous pair of 3%ers for the Greens

I had thought the Greens might be able to beat the LDs but if these polls are right there's not much chance of it happening.

[Devonian]

YouGov poll

Labour      30% (-2)
UKIP         28% (+5)
Conservative 23% (-1)
Lib Dem     9% (-2)
Green         5% (nc)
SNP/PC       4% (+1)
Other          1% (nc)

Interestingly the poll also shows voting intention amongst those 10/10 likely to vote. These are

UKIP         34%
Labour      27%
Conservative 20%
Lib Dem     9%
Green        5%
SNP/PC      4%

cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/52pydxm3qk/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140404.pdf

[Devonian]

Populus Fieldwork 4-6 April

Labour 31%
Conservative 27%
UKIP 25%
Lib Dem 10%
SNP 3%
Green 3%
Plaid 1%
Other 1%

www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/European_Election_VI_06-04-2014_BPC.pdf

[Pimpernal]

Apr 8, 2014 15:30:08 GMT Devonian said:

Populus Fieldwork 4-6 April

Labour 31%
Conservative 27%
UKIP 25%
Lib Dem 10%
SNP 3%
Green 3%
Plaid 1%
Other 1%

www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/European_Election_VI_06-04-2014_BPC.pdf

FFS - before they fiddled with the figures, UKIP were way ahead of the Cons and just behind Lab!
Unweighted - Con 315 Lab 435 UKIP 408
Weighted Con 338 Lab 424 UKIP 309!

[Richard Allen]

Apr 9, 2014 7:09:22 GMT Pimpernal said:

Apr 8, 2014 15:30:08 GMT Devonian said:

Populus Fieldwork 4-6 April

Labour 31%
Conservative 27%
UKIP 25%
Lib Dem 10%
SNP 3%
Green 3%
Plaid 1%
Other 1%

www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/European_Election_VI_06-04-2014_BPC.pdf

FFS - before they fiddled with the figures, UKIP were way ahead of the Cons and just behind Lab!
Unweighted - Con 315 Lab 435 UKIP 408
Weighted Con 338 Lab 424 UKIP 309!

I really do wish people would stop complaining about figures being weighted as if it is some kind of conspiracy. Without weighting, or some other method of ensuring a balanced sample, a poll is completely worthless.

[The Bishop]

True as far as it goes.

But it is also fair to point out the more a poll is "weighted", the less reliable it probably is?

[Richard Allen]

Apr 9, 2014 12:23:33 GMT @trident said:

Apr 9, 2014 11:29:12 GMT Richard Allen said:

I really do wish people would stop complaining about figures being weighted as if it is some kind of conspiracy. Without weighting, or some other method of ensuring a balanced sample, a poll is completely worthless.

I imagine that during the next general election a cottage industry of 'poll unskewing' will develop on whichever side is behind in the polls.

Another unwelcome import from the United States.

[marksenior]

TNS BMRB Euro poll Lab 30 UKIP 29 Con 21 LD 9

[The Bishop]

Isn't it about time they published a Westminster VI poll again? The last was in November, IIRC.....

[Devonian]

ICM/Guardian, A great poll for Labour, bad for UKIP and very bad for Lib Dems

Labour 36% (+1)
Conservative 25% (nc)
UKIP 20% (nc)
Lib Dem 6% (-3)
Green 6% (-1)
Others 7% (+3)

www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/14/support-tories-falls-budget-boost-deflated-maria-miller-row

[Deleted]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Lib Dems down at 6, especially after Clegg's car crash debates.

[Rose Tinted Lane]

Do ICM not release cross-breaks? Would be interested in regional breakdown, for obvious reasons.

[Rose Tinted Lane]

I do realise that, but they are often interesting anyway. The regions do tend to give roughly the figures you would imagine relative to each other on YouGov. The last one I saw had a sample size of 460, which is reasonable enough, even given the lack of accounting for other biases within the regional samples.

[Devonian]

ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph

Labour 30%

UKIP 27%

Conservative 22%

Lib Dem 8%

The rest of figures not available yet

[Richard Allen]

Apr 18, 2014 15:18:24 GMT ArmchairCritic said:

Apr 15, 2014 10:50:24 GMT joe said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Lib Dems down at 6, especially after Clegg's car crash debates.

I'm not too sure that it will make a lot of difference in the end.

I wonder what the bookies are offering on the LibDems getting no MEPs? It would seem to be a real possibility.

Sorry tricky.

I don't see any scenario where they don't get at least one MEP in both the SE and the SW.

[marksenior]

It appears that the ICM/Sun Tel poll is an online poll whereas the ICM/Guardian poll was a telephone poll . It demonstrates again that there are big differences in the 2 methods of polling .