Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2014 23:56:53 GMT
Our Scottish Nationalist friends seem to be celebrating early tonight. Seems a small sub-sample with dodgy weighting is the most accurate poll since sliced bread. So no change there really. The SNP do love disingenuous pushing of inaccurate sub samples! |
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
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Post by Pimpernal on Mar 16, 2014 7:10:31 GMT
Given the trend for poor turnouts in the Euros it seems reasonable to have a stricter filter...
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Post by Devonian on Mar 16, 2014 10:31:22 GMT
Full result including SNP
UKIP 30%
Labour 28%
Con 21%
Lib Dem 8%
Green 6%
SNP 5% PC 1% Independent(?) 1% BNP 1%
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Post by Devonian on Mar 16, 2014 10:37:02 GMT
Given the trend for poor turnouts in the Euros it seems reasonable to have a stricter filter... Having the Met elections at the same time might boost the relative Labour turnout relative to everyone else in terms of the overall turnout I think you're right. This poll assumes a turnout of 38% overall, in 2009 the actual turnout was 34%. Given that Euro election turnout in Great Britain has never quite reached 38% I think the filter is reasonable. |
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Post by marksenior on Mar 19, 2014 18:16:36 GMT
Yougov/Times Euro poll has Lab 32 Con 24 UKIP 23 LD 10 Green 5
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seanf
Non-Aligned
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Post by seanf on Mar 19, 2014 19:04:04 GMT
Yougov, like ComRes finds 38% certain to vote. It gives Labour 34%, UKIP 26%, Con 22%, Lib Dem 10%, Green 5%.
Anthony Wells thinks this would result in 28 seats for Labour, 20 for UKIP, 17 for Conservatives, and 1 each for Lib Dems and Greens.
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Post by marksenior on Mar 19, 2014 19:17:05 GMT
Anthony is certainly wrong with his Lib Dem forecast . Looking at the regional figures they would get 3 to 6 seats London , South East and Scotland with 3 more possible in South West , Eastern and Lancs .
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 19, 2014 19:35:09 GMT
I'd suspect that there will be plenty out there who are umming and arring about voting, and I think you could expect a fair number from that set to go with UKIP.
I'm not convinced that the Greens are going to lose a seat.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 19, 2014 19:39:14 GMT
I'm pretty sure the Greens will keep their London seat. Whether they keep the South East seat is down to how they do outside Brighton and Hove where I expect a substantial fall.
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Post by greatkingrat on Mar 19, 2014 21:32:49 GMT
I would expect them to keep both, but the South East seat is safer than London. Even if you remove all of their votes from Brighton, they would still have easily won a seat in 2009.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 19, 2014 22:30:29 GMT
It's safer on paper but their vote is a lot softer there and a significant amount was a personal vote for Lucas. I happen to think they will hold in the SE but if they were to lose one that would be the more likely IMO
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 19, 2014 22:34:59 GMT
It's safer on paper but their vote is a lot softer there and a significant amount was a personal vote for Lucas. I happen to think they will hold in the SE but if they were to lose one that would be the more likely IMO As things stand, there aren't any parties to their left running this time- that could have a real impact in their favour. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,915
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 20, 2014 10:04:16 GMT
Although I would be surprised if we topped the poll in either Brighton or Oxford this time, I'd expect we'd still get a reasonable support in both and the vote will hold up well enough across the region as a whole that the South East seat will be safe.
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Post by Devonian on Mar 22, 2014 23:05:22 GMT
New Survation Euro Poll also gives Tories a post budget boost. UKIP in third place
LAB 32 (nc) CON 28 (+5) UKIP 23 (-3) LD 7 (-2) BNP 1 SNP 5 GRE 3 PC 1
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 23, 2014 9:01:02 GMT
Although I would be surprised if we topped the poll in either Brighton or Oxford this time, I'd expect we'd still get a reasonable support in both and the vote will hold up well enough across the region as a whole that the South East seat will be safe. What in your opinion has caused your decline in Oxford? When I lived there (2003-2007), the Greens seemed to be on the march, Sushila Dhail and Matt Sellwood were everywhere...for someone moving down from a town where the Greens were an exotic rumour, it was an interesting situation and I thought they'd end up taking the council in quick fashion. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2014 10:49:39 GMT
5% for SNP is crazy.. Although I would be surprised if we topped the poll in either Brighton or Oxford this time, I'd expect we'd still get a reasonable support in both and the vote will hold up well enough across the region as a whole that the South East seat will be safe. What in your opinion has caused your decline in Oxford? When I lived there (2003-2007), the Greens seemed to be on the march, Sushila Dhail and Matt Sellwood were everywhere...for someone moving down from a town where the Greens were an exotic rumour, it was an interesting situation and I thought they'd end up taking the council in quick fashion. I think the Oxford Greens are back to where they were in 2006 with ~21% of the vote in the last council elections. Labour miles ahead though. |
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Andrew_S
Top Poster
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 27, 2014 22:44:39 GMT
YouGov:
LAB 28%
UKIP 26%
CON 24%
LD 11%
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2014 12:30:05 GMT
YouGov: LAB 28% UKIP 26% CON 24% LD 11% Green 7% SNP/PC 3% (~28% Scotland) |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,861
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Post by Crimson King on Mar 31, 2014 21:19:31 GMT
I wonder if YouGov will be doing these Euro polls routinely as part of their daily polling? I would have thought they will become more frequent over the next few weeks and we can no doubt expect one after this week's Clegg/Farage clash on the BBC......not that I think that these head to heads will have any long term effect. I dunno, by current standards that last one counts as Cleggmania |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Mar 31, 2014 22:05:02 GMT
Averaging all the polls since the start of the year we get: Lab 31%, UKIP 25%, Con 24%, Lib Dem 9%, Green 5%, Others 4%, SNP 1%, BNP 0.5%, Plaid 0.34% which gives us the following tallies:
Conservatives win 153 local area counts (-119 on 2009) winning 19 MEP's (-6)
Labour win 143 local areas (+84 on 2009) winning 28 MEP's (+15)
Liberal Democrats win 2 local areas (-9 on 2009) winning 3 MEP's (-8)
United Kingdom Independence Party win 63 local areas (+54 on 2009) winning 18 MEP's (+5)
Plaid Cymru win 4 local areas (unchanged on 2009) winning 0 MEP's (-1)
Scottish National Party win 15 local areas (-7 on 2009) winning 1 MEP (-1)
Greens win 0 local areas (-3 on 2009) winning 0 MEP's (-2)
British National Party win 0 local areas (unchanged on 2009) winning 0 MEP's (-2)
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