Euro polling

[tricky]

Apr 18, 2014 15:18:24 GMT ArmchairCritic said:

Apr 15, 2014 10:50:24 GMT joe said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Lib Dems down at 6, especially after Clegg's car crash debates.

I'm not too sure that it will make a lot of difference in the end.

I wonder what the bookies are offering on the LibDems getting no MEPs? It would seem to be a real possibility.

Sorry tricky.

I feel no panic.

I am working pretty hard though.

[Devonian]

ICM Euro poll for Scotland

SNP 37%

Labour 28%

Conservative 11%

UKIP 10%

Lib Dem 7%

Green 4%

www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/poll-says-scots-more-likely-to-vote-yes-if-they-think-the-torys-will-win-th.1398070214

[Devonian]

I think that works out at

SNP 3 seats

Labour 2 seats

Conservative 1 seat

with the Conservatives just 1% above losing their seat to UKIP

[AdminSTB]

That poll almost makes me want to vote Conservative just to help keep UKIP out...

[Devonian]

Sun/YouGov

Lab 30
UKIP 27
Con 22
LD 10
Greens 6

[Devonian]

Further details of the YouGov poll

Labour 30%

UKIP 27%

Conservative 22%

Lib Dem 10%

Green 6%

SNP/PC 3%

BNP 1%

Other 1%

Those 10/10 likely to vote

Labour 31%

UKIP 30%

Conservative 18%

Lib Dem 11%

Green 6%

SNP/PC 4%

BNP 1%

Other 1%

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Yougov for the Sunday Times tomorrow apparently showing UKIP 31, Lab 28, C 19.

[Devonian]

YouGov apparently

UKIP 31 (+4), Lab 28 (-2), Con 19 (-3) LD 9 (-1) Greens 8(+2)

[Devonian]

Also apparently from the same YouGov poll

How would you vote in a EU membership referendum, stay 40%, Leave 37%, DK 18%, Wouldn't vote 5%

How would you vote if Cameron renegotiated our relationship with the EU. Stay 50%, Leave 26%, DK 19%, Wouldn't vote 5%

Should Cam seek to the end the right of Non-British EU citizens to live & work in the EU. Yes 45%, No 35% Not sure 20%

Are the UKIP posters racist, Yes 25%, No 66%

Is Nigel Farage racist, Yes 27%, No 50%

Is Nigel Farage hypocritical to have his German wife as his secretary. Yes 44%, No 40%

[Harry Hayfield]

Apr 26, 2014 21:10:59 GMT Devonian said:

YouGov apparently UKIP 31 (+4), Lab 28 (-2), Con 19 (-3) LD 9 (-1) Greens 8(+2)

UK-Elect MEP Forecast: Lab 25, UKIP 24, Con 12, Lib Dem 3, Green 2, SNP 2, Plaid 1 (Lib Dem MEP's elected in North West England, South East England and South West England)

[carlton43]

Apr 27, 2014 0:13:03 GMT ArmchairCritic said:

I mean.....if Cameron renegotiates what?

Anything?

So......he manages to get a kilo of cod from our own fishing waters as the sum total of his recovery.....they will vote to remain?

Stupid questions.

The problem with the Euro elections is that people think its a chance to kick the government in the bollocks and it won't make any difference.

Yes  and No AC. The electorate know what they mean by those responses within their own terms rather than as a rational response to each definitive question. We all know that human beings are in few ways truly rational beings! If they were rational they would be thinner, drink less and be non-smokers; have less borrowing, more savings and much more insurance and pension provision.

The public have been shocked into a new form of mental appreciation of politics by the massive Expenses Fraud played upon them and the steady drip feed of half truths and outright lies over Immigration, The EU, Foreign Wars, Green Policies and Foreign Aid. They distrust what they are told on nearly any subject and note the 'On Message' and the 'Politically Correct' garbage they are fed daily through the media.

They are largely unconcerned at the minor rants and sounding off by a few of the UKIP candidates, nor the content of punchy posters because many of them express exactly similar views themselves at club, pub and on the terraces. They are not shocked by politically incorrect wording and often relieved to hear what they feel in their hearts expressed by a politician, instead of the dissembling 'on message', 'airbrushed' pap the other three parties put out to impress the media and the chattering classes in the South East.

What we are seeing is a partial revolt of reality against the right-on pseuds who have dominated the game from the BBC and the Guardian for far too long. We are going to say what we feel and frankly don't give a flying fuck what the rest of you think or for your tender susceptibilities. Some worms have turned and we must all get used to the new situation....at least for the time being.



 

[Devonian]

Apr 27, 2014 0:13:03 GMT ArmchairCritic said:

I mean.....if Cameron renegotiates what?

Anything?

So......he manages to get a kilo of cod from our own fishing waters as the sum total of his recovery.....they will vote to remain?

Stupid questions.

The problem with the Euro elections is that people think its a chance to kick the government in the bollocks and it won't make any difference.

Looking at the poll I think people have quite unrealistic expectations about what can be renegotiated. The next question is to ask people for what they think should be the top three priorities for renegotiation. You can see their answers on page 7 of the poll results here

cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/pjvdg1r9fz/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140525.pdf

All the top priorities are things that the EU would and has declared to be non negotiable.

[Devonian]

YouGov poll figures for 10/10 likelihood to vote

UKIP 36% (+6)

Labour 28% (-3)

Con  16% (-2)

Green 9% (+3)

Lib Dem 7% (-4)

SNP/PC 4% (nc)

BNP 0% (-1)

Other 1% (nc)

[Harry Hayfield]

Apr 27, 2014 9:02:08 GMT Devonian said:

YouGov poll figures for 10/10 likelihood to vote

UKIP 36% (+6)

Labour 28% (-3)

Con  16% (-2)

Green 9% (+3)

Lib Dem 7% (-4)

SNP/PC 4% (nc)

BNP 0% (-1)

Other 1% (nc)

If that was the final result we would have 30 UKIP MEP's, 26 Labour MEP's, 9 Conservative MEP's, 2 Green MEP's and 2 SNP MEP's and in terms of local areas UKIP would top the poll in 267 areas, Labour would top the poll in 85 areas, the SNP in 23 areas, the Conservatives in 2 areas (Enfield and Kensington) the Greens in 2 areas (Brighton and Norwich) and Plaid topping the poll in Gwynedd only.

[Devonian]

Apr 27, 2014 9:02:08 GMT Devonian said:

YouGov poll figures for 10/10 likelihood to vote

UKIP 36% (+6)

Labour 28% (-3)

Con  16% (-2)

Green 9% (+3)

Lib Dem 7% (-4)

SNP/PC 4% (nc)

BNP 0% (-1)

Other 1% (nc)

The poster campaign seems to have resulted in a boost for the UKIP campaign. Some people were speculating that it might also boost turnout amongst opposition to UKIP. Well if this poll is accurate then it doesn't seem to have done so amongst Lab/Con/Lib Dem voters. I think that makes sense, I think those who are likely to feel that strongly about it are likely to be those who would have turned out anyway.

The exception seems to be the Greens who get a 50% boost in the 10/10 likely to vote category. I don't want to speculate to much based on one poll but I wonder if the category of people who feel strongly against UKIP/the posters but who also weren't sure they were going to vote consists of left of Labour voters who normally might think the Greens/other left of Labour is a wasted vote but who now think 'dammit I will vote now'. The number of whinges of twitter about UKIP saying 'why are UKIP on the telly again, what about the Greens they have an MP' suggests that Green support might be high in this group. The example given is never the Respect Party or the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, they always mention the Greens.

[The Bishop]

Notable that (as in most previous YouGov EU polls) Labour support is little changed by the "certainty to vote" filter.

Its the Tories that seem to have more of a problem there - anything like 16% on the day would be truly astonishing

[hedgehog]

How much do you think the 'sex' stories are effecting the lib dems, looks like nick clegg is on a downer either way, if the public believe he knew nothing, that doesnt do him or his party any credit, paints them as incompetant, if the public think he knew, then its a cover up.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Apr 26, 2014 21:22:50 GMT Devonian said:

Also apparently from the same YouGov poll

How would you vote in a EU membership referendum, stay 40%, Leave 37%, DK 18%, Wouldn't vote 5%

How would you vote if Cameron renegotiated our relationship with the EU. Stay 50%, Leave 26%, DK 19%, Wouldn't vote 5%

Should Cam seek to the end the right of Non-British EU citizens to live & work in the EU. Yes 45%, No 35% Not sure 20%

Are the UKIP posters racist, Yes 25%, No 66%

Is Nigel Farage racist, Yes 27%, No 50%

Is Nigel Farage hypocritical to have his German wife as his secretary. Yes 44%, No 40%

I sense a certain fuzziness from the electorate on what being in the EU actually involves. The second bit is vaguely worded, but no renegotiation is going to completely remove free movement of labour, which is what the word 'end' clearly implies.

[carlton43]

Apr 27, 2014 6:39:38 GMT ArmchairCritic said:

Apr 27, 2014 1:03:01 GMT carlton43 said:

Yes  and No AC. The electorate know what they mean by those responses within their own terms rather than as a rational response to each definitive question. We all know that human beings are in few ways truly rational beings! If they were rational they would be thinner, drink less and be non-smokers; have less borrowing, more savings and much more insurance and pension provision.

The public have been shocked into a new form of mental appreciation of politics by the massive Expenses Fraud played upon them and the steady drip feed of half truths and outright lies over Immigration, The EU, Foreign Wars, Green Policies and Foreign Aid. They distrust what they are told on nearly any subject and note the 'On Message' and the 'Politically Correct' garbage they are fed daily through the media.

They are largely unconcerned at the minor rants and sounding off by a few of the UKIP candidates, nor the content of punchy posters because many of them express exactly similar views themselves at club, pub and on the terraces. They are not shocked by politically incorrect wording and often relieved to hear what they feel in their hearts expressed by a politician, instead of the dissembling 'on message', 'airbrushed' pap the other three parties put out to impress the media and the chattering classes in the South East.

What we are seeing is a partial revolt of reality against the right-on pseuds who have dominated the game from the BBC and the Guardian for far too long. We are going to say what we feel and frankly don't give a flying fuck what the rest of you think or for your tender susceptibilities. Some worms have turned and we must all get used to the new situation....at least for the time being. 

Yes, yes, that is all very well and not before time.

What I mean is the question about Fargage's wife........Its his bloody wife ffs. The fact that she is his wife surely negates his hypocrisy?

Had he employed some young fraulein from Berlin, then, yes, he might well be a hypocrite.

I'm inclined to think that it because the public are stupid and irrational. There are good reasons for employing your wife when you are in his position.

Quite so AC. Agree about the fuhrer's hausfrau! My remarks were not addressed to you. I merely used your post as a vehicle to hang out my views. What the commentariat keep missing is the fact that our demographic don't think like them at all and have quite differing values and constraints. What the politicos feel to be damning can be a positive for us for some complicated psychological reasons. This is the politics of anger and protest but could broaden into a movement with real body. It is all to play for and we don't need too much policy, it is all about tone and gut feeling at this stage. It is a continuation of the Thatcherite theme of "Is he 'one of us"'? 

[tonygreaves]

I do hope you will cook it well before eating it.