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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 15, 2014 21:51:12 GMT
Earlier tonight, this interesting graphic was doing the rounds on Twitter. From an IPSOS-Mori poll and treats likelihood to vote in a different way:  |
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Post by manchesterman on May 15, 2014 22:49:39 GMT
THat is interesting David, a nice slant on usual polls.
One thing I glean from it though is, if we consider the top 2 rows as actual "votes" for the Euro election columns, we get Con 24%, Lab 30%, LD 13% and UKIP only 17%. Does this suggest to others that the opinion poll lead for UKIP is "soft" to put it mildly? If the actual results came out anything like that would it almost be the beginning of the end for UKIP on a national level?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2014 8:56:22 GMT
yes it is clear that UKIP have a smaller core vote and they rely on the middle 11% for the 30% they may want for the Euro's. The question for the locals is would this 11% still vote UKIP as well ?
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neilm
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Post by neilm on May 16, 2014 9:32:38 GMT
They'd have to have a reason to. Lib Dem style community politics work in some areas but it could take years for that to work, and what serious candidate wants to talk excessively about potholes?
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2014 9:40:54 GMT
for the locals I think that is how it should be but of course that is not the real world
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2014 9:47:24 GMT
for the locals I think that is how it should be but of course that is not the real world So you think that local issues should not be related to the real world? |
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2014 10:20:35 GMT
I think some obviously are but others are not. I can only speak for myself and we have tried to keep it local and only relate to national where there is an obvious link. I would like in an ideal world for peopel to vote on how their local council is being run and we have plenty of ammunition there !
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Post by greenchristian on May 16, 2014 17:29:33 GMT
I think some obviously are but others are not. I can only speak for myself and we have tried to keep it local and only relate to national where there is an obvious link. Are you sure you're a member of the Labour Party? |
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2014 18:49:32 GMT
not going against party policy at all though just that my ward is not that 'political'. So the standard messages may not work
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2014 19:00:55 GMT
I think some obviously are but others are not. I can only speak for myself and we have tried to keep it local and only relate to national where there is an obvious link. I would like in an ideal world for peopel to vote on how their local council is being run and we have plenty of ammunition there ! Walsall is well known for having a particularly incompetent Labour Party. |
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2014 19:11:34 GMT
not really unless you think council elections should only be judged on national issues ? Actually I think in Walsall the mistake in the past by us was not to be local enough and things have changed a bit for this election.
Only a week to find out.
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Post by Devonian on May 16, 2014 19:31:20 GMT
Someone posted this on twitter
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 16, 2014 20:32:21 GMT
I'd be interested to see how the polling worked out if you took only those UKIP voters who were 10/10 likely to vote, but 5/10 for Labour and the Tories. As a general rule, we're going to do a much better job of contacting our considerers and ensuring they actually make it to the polling station. I think some obviously are but others are not. I can only speak for myself and we have tried to keep it local and only relate to national where there is an obvious link. Are you sure you're a member of the Labour Party? We're doing similarly. National issues have their place in campaigning, but where you're active and there are major local issues it is much easier to get people to listen. |
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Post by Chris Cassidy on May 17, 2014 18:31:57 GMT
ComRes / Indy / Mirror Euro poll
UKIP 35% (+1)
Labour 24% (0)
Con 20% (-2)
Green 7% (+2)
LibDem 6% (-2)
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 17, 2014 18:41:37 GMT
Is that another of those silly headline figures that only includes those who answer 10/10 on certainty to vote?
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on May 17, 2014 18:46:47 GMT
ICM/Telegraph European Election poll
LAB 29% CON 26% UKIP 25% LDEM 7%
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 17, 2014 19:11:55 GMT
The polls are all over the place at the moment but my gut feeling is that we will get a very close result between the top three parties with 5 or 6 points at most between them. I also wouldn't be surprised to see big variations between the swing from one region to another.
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on May 17, 2014 19:44:24 GMT
Of ourse - the polls don't register the 5% of stolen votes An Independence from Europe will take from UKIP...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2014 20:17:19 GMT
Of ourse - the polls don't register the 5% of stolen votes An Independence from Europe will take from UKIP... bet you they get nowhere near that, £20 to charity if they break 2% ? |
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on May 17, 2014 20:22:58 GMT
Of ourse - the polls don't register the 5% of stolen votes An Independence from Europe will take from UKIP... bet you they get nowhere near that, £20 to charity if they break 2% ? Agreed. Help for Heroes? or Demelza House? |
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