Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,282
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Post by Tony Otim on May 12, 2014 19:13:15 GMT
That's quite a jump - I would love that to be true, but I'm not counting any chickens yet.
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Post by finsobruce on May 12, 2014 22:22:24 GMT
Notable that (as in most previous YouGov EU polls) Labour support is little changed by the "certainty to vote" filter. Its the Tories that seem to have more of a problem there - anything like 16% on the day would be truly astonishing If Labour get over 30% I will eat a donkey penis and the the electorate have gone insane. I am not too sure how accurate these figures are to be honest/ I suspect that they have the positioning about right though I hear a donkey breathing a sigh of relief...
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2014 22:54:39 GMT
That's quite a jump - I would love that to be true, but I'm not counting any chickens yet. Well FWIW one of our guys on the Y&H list, Ryan, did a hustings in Harrogate and reported a very strong Green contingent in the audience. But it was Harrogate. There was a lot of hostility towards the LibDems. But then what kind of people come to hustings? Not your average Joe, is it? If it's a hard left audience in Harrogate then certainly not. There isn't a more patrician one nation Tory seat in the country.
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Post by Devonian on May 14, 2014 19:59:59 GMT
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Post by Devonian on May 14, 2014 20:56:47 GMT
Yesterday, ICM had us top of the pile. Clearly somebody is getting it wrong here. I can only assume that we are somewhere in the middle Which, before someone says it, is equally as likely to be wrong. But what else can I say? I've noticed that in comparison to some other countries like France and Germany the UK European opinion polls are a bit all over the place. I wonder how much that is due to the fact that two separate and huge shifts in voting preferences, the decline of the Lib Dem vote and the rise of UKIP's, have both happened since the last national elections, thereby making the calibration process more difficult for pollsters. Does that make sense to those people here that know more about polling than me?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2014 21:06:15 GMT
YG now have
LAB 28% UKIP 25% CON 22% LDEM 10% GRN 10%
Polls are all over the place at the moment and no obvious reason, the thing is with YG is that we have much more of a track record to go on.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 14, 2014 21:18:17 GMT
The problem with Euro polls is that they are really a contest among the pollsters over which has the most successful model for coping with the lower turnout.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 14, 2014 23:06:12 GMT
I'm not convinced that's a great yardstick. Given the drastic changes in support occurring during the campaign, particularly relating to expenses, a poll that was way out when it was taken could have been very accurate come polling day.
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Post by thirdchill on May 15, 2014 1:33:17 GMT
The problem with Euro polls is that they are really a contest among the pollsters over which has the most successful model for coping with the lower turnout. Not just low turnout but differential turnout as well. Am assuming that places with local elections on the same day may well have higher turnouts than those which don't.
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Post by froome on May 15, 2014 8:18:29 GMT
The volatility of these polls just confirms one thing to me. That is that a large number of people, probably more so in the European election than in others, will only make up their mind once they are actually inside the polling station with the ballot paper staring up in front of them.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on May 15, 2014 9:13:32 GMT
Are they asking the same questions? Euro and GE specific or are some using the 'if there was an election tomorrow...' and others 'in the Euro elections...' questions?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2014 9:42:11 GMT
what happened to the polls in 2009 at the same time, did the GE VI change or in fact because we had less polling we saw less changes ?
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,282
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Post by Sibboleth on May 15, 2014 14:06:39 GMT
I remember GE voting polls being crazy at the time as well. But then this was also the period of the expenses hysteria. My recollections of the time are also less than great for other reasons, so I may be entirely wrong.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,282
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Post by Tony Otim on May 15, 2014 14:13:44 GMT
I remember GE voting polls being crazy at the time as well. But then this was also the period of the expenses hysteria. My recollections of the time are also less than great for other reasons, so I may be entirely wrong. A quick scan of ukpollingreport would seem to indicate that the general trend was Con c.40%, Lab low 20s and LDs high teens, leaving about 20% for others, although there is one Com Res poll that would have others on 30% around the Euro election time.
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Post by greenchristian on May 15, 2014 15:07:46 GMT
I don't recall there being a lot of polling for the Euro's in 2009 (certainly not as much as this year), but there were a few. Which pollster got closest to the eventual outcome? Figures can be found on UK Polling Report. A quick scan of the figures suggests that Yougov got the closest.
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Post by Devonian on May 15, 2014 16:59:48 GMT
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Post by Devonian on May 15, 2014 17:11:54 GMT
The Comres headline figure is based on 10/10 likelihood to vote. From the same poll 5-10 likelihood to vote
UKIP 29% Lab 27% Con 23% LD 8% Green 6%
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,531
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Post by The Bishop on May 15, 2014 17:42:18 GMT
The latter looks a much more plausible outcome on the day......
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,757
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 15, 2014 18:27:38 GMT
In an article posted today by Mike Smithson, he says that Com Res do not prompt for the Greens and when a pollster does not prompt for the Greens, UKIP's vote in a lot higher.
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Post by greenchristian on May 15, 2014 20:51:08 GMT
In an article posted today by Mike Smithson, he says that Com Res do not prompt for the Greens and when a pollster does not prompt for the Greens, UKIP's vote in a lot higher. That might suggest that a decent chunk of UKIP's support is "none of the above" voters, who could split a number of ways. amongst the Greens and the no-hoper parties.
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