Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2014 20:40:24 GMT
whoever loses pays to the charity of choice, mine is Acorns.
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2014 20:48:18 GMT
I would say a nationwide vote, Sinclaire is far more of a threat to UKIP here.
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on May 17, 2014 20:49:27 GMT
whoever loses pays to the charity of choice, mine is Acorns. A hospice charity? OK I agree. Loser sends cheque made out to whichever charity to the winner in the post? Result settled on total UK results nationwide of all regions AIFE stand in? |
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on May 17, 2014 20:54:51 GMT
Turnout in the Euros could be anywhere between 33% and 50%. I don't think anyone has a clue at the moment where in that range it'll be.
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on May 17, 2014 21:01:27 GMT
Turnout in the Euros could be anywhere between 33% and 50%. I don't think anyone has a clue at the moment where in that range it'll be. i think 25 to 35% is a more likely range but i could be wrong |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 17, 2014 21:01:28 GMT
Of ourse - the polls don't register the 5% of stolen votes An Independence from Europe will take from UKIP... Senior UKIP councillor says that up to a fifth of his party's supporters are too thick to complete their ballot paper properly. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2014 21:02:01 GMT
whoever loses pays to the charity of choice, mine is Acorns. A hospice charity? OK I agree. Loser sends cheque made out to whichever charity to the winner in the post? Result settled on total UK results nationwide of all regions AIFE stand in? OK would have to work it out, do we know which regions they are standing in ? Cheque ?? Cheque  Paypal mate !! or bank transfer please to Acorns :-) |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 17, 2014 21:04:01 GMT
On a serious note we do have the example of UK First, the anti UKIP spoiler from 5 years ago. They polled 2.4% in the Eastern region, 1.7% in the East Midlands and 0.7% in the South East. They of course didn't have top spot on the ballot paper or such a similar description to UKIP.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 17, 2014 21:49:54 GMT
I am working on the assumption that An Independence from Europe will have the same impact that the Liberal and Literal Democrat candidate had on the Liberal Democrats in Devon and Plymouth East in the 1994 European Elections (roughly a quarter).
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 17, 2014 21:51:47 GMT
They were also presumably next to UKIP on the ballot paper, which presumably made it slightly harder for an elector to see one and miss the other.
And of course AIFE may get some non-UKIP support just from being top of the ballot, that being how these things work. The flip side of that is that there have been suggestions that the second biggest beneficiaries of the donkey vote are actually candidates right at the bottom of the ballot paper.
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on May 17, 2014 21:53:50 GMT
Of ourse - the polls don't register the 5% of stolen votes An Independence from Europe will take from UKIP... Senior UKIP councillor says that up to a fifth of his party's supporters are two thick to complete their ballot paper properly. I think you mean 'too' thick  "Senior" I'm one of our younger cllrs!!! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2014 21:59:20 GMT
I am working on the assumption that An Independence from Europe will have the same impact that the Liberal and Literal Democrat candidate had on the Liberal Democrats in Devon and Plymouth East in the 1994 European Elections (roughly a quarter). Do you mean that you think UKIP will not top the poll because of AIFE splitting their vote? |
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 17, 2014 22:48:29 GMT
I am working on the assumption that An Independence from Europe will have the same impact that the Liberal and Literal Democrat candidate had on the Liberal Democrats in Devon and Plymouth East in the 1994 European Elections (roughly a quarter). Do you mean that you think UKIP will not top the poll because of AIFE splitting their vote? I most certainly do (but it may only be by a percent or so) if pushed I would say Lab 22%, UKIP 22%, Con 20%, Green 10%, Lib Dem 9%, AIE 6%, SNP 2%, BNP 2%, Plaid 1%, Others 5% |
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Post by greenchristian on May 17, 2014 23:05:17 GMT
Agreed. Help for Heroes? or Demelza House? You've lost Pimp. I will give 20 quid to Help for Heroes, if Ian is wrong. We have to exclude the Midlands region in this bet though because he is likely to score higher there than anywhere else. I think it is safe to say that anything he gets elsewhere is, in all likelihood, intended to be a UKIP vote. So if he gets 2.6% in Midlands then that doesn't count. I think it's safe to say that anything he gets in the West Midlands is, in all likelihood, intended to be a UKIP vote. The only West Midlands MEP anybody who isn't a politics geek has heard of is Nikki Sinclaire. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 17, 2014 23:15:13 GMT
You've lost Pimp. I will give 20 quid to Help for Heroes, if Ian is wrong. We have to exclude the Midlands region in this bet though because he is likely to score higher there than anywhere else. I think it is safe to say that anything he gets elsewhere is, in all likelihood, intended to be a UKIP vote. So if he gets 2.6% in Midlands then that doesn't count. I think it's safe to say that anything he gets in the West Midlands is, in all likelihood, intended to be a UKIP vote. The only West Midlands MEP anybody who isn't a politics geek has heard of is Nikki Sinclaire. Completely agree. His "personal vote" in the West Midlands probably runs to 200-300 at best. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on May 18, 2014 0:03:28 GMT
A repeat of the Literal Democrat fiasco would be most excellent. I would think that even if the possibly afflicted party wasn't UKIP...
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on May 18, 2014 6:46:58 GMT
YouGov/Sunday Times #EP2014 poll - certain to vote 10/10:
29% UKIP (+4)
26% LAB (-2)
21% CON (-1)
10% GRN (=)
8% LDEM (-2)
3% SNP/PCY
1% BNP
2% OTH
comparisons with the last YouGov Euro Poll I can find on here...
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 18, 2014 12:02:11 GMT
Of course, polling for the European Parliament elections should be taken even less seriously than the European Parliament itself.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on May 18, 2014 16:42:36 GMT
So then, to clarify, you would like to see the true wishes of the people misrepresented, due to some deliberate obfuscation in the choosing of party names, orchestrated by those wishing to ride on coat tails of success, of another party? Hell yes; it would be hilarious. What? I never claimed to be good person. |
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Post by psephos on May 18, 2014 17:00:06 GMT
A repeat of the Literal Democrat fiasco would be most excellent. I would think that even if the possibly afflicted party wasn't UKIP... So then, to clarify, you would like to see the true wishes of the people misrepresented, due to some deliberate obfuscation in the choosing of party names, orchestrated by those wishing to ride on coat tails of success, of another party? I have to concede, in all honesty, that two of my friends are candidates seeking election as MEPs. One is likely to get elected anyway but some depleting of the UKIP vote may well make that a little more comfortable. The other could benefit hugely if such confusion resulted in a reduction in UKIP's vote. I struggle though, to find myself willing it to happen. If it did pan out to my friends advantage then I would allow myself a tacit smile quite probably but, in doing so, would I not be countenancing the corruption of the electoral system? That kind of makes me little better than someone deliberately fiddling postal votes, save for the fact that I had played no active part in bringing it about. Look, why feel so sorry for UKIP or whether their vote get s put off or whatever. If anyone wants us out of the EU UKIP is not the vehicle. UKIP is aone man band, pretty similar to the Pratiotic Socialist Party, only the leader of the Patriotic Socilaist Party doesn't get photographed all the time drinking pints of beer in pubs a s if that 's the full argumentf or getting out. Anyone who really wants ius out would find a better wayt of doing it that that. Ive got contempt for anyon, howev er strongly they feel about the EU,who lashes them to Farages bandwagon because they'll just be permanent martyrs and slaves of the pint-drinking pub goer hero, rather than actiually getting us out. So I'm not bothered by Mike Natrass pslitting their vote. What I'm bothered by is all the articles about UKIP nuttersTweeting rubbish, because we already found out in 2013 thats the way to put up the UKIP vote -make them look like "the Estatblishment " is after them. |
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