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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2014 9:38:50 GMT
Ah bugger. I could have been down £25 there....
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2014 9:41:08 GMT
I gave up when they said there could be a recount but the result had been flagged by then.
Happy with the Labour performance and follows the trends of the other safe seats we have had to defend.
UKIP had a decent result in the North where they are not strong but the ramping did not help them
Tories, poor when the economy is supposed to be recovering, is it in Manchester, does it feel like that ?
LD, oh dear, it really is showing in the urban and semi urban and met seats that they are in deep trouble. Some LD's on here may deny they but would be very foolish to ignore all the results.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2014 9:42:15 GMT
Ah bugger. I could have been down £25 there.... I would say my charity was £25 down :-(
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 14, 2014 9:50:03 GMT
You shouldn't be so stubborn about your terms then. Of course you are free to donate your winnings to charity but you shouldn't demand that people you're betting against do likewise
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2014 9:57:59 GMT
because I always bet for charity now as if I win others benefit and if I lose then another charity benefits. Not interested anymore in betting for personal gain.
Despite the closeness of 5% I am still surprised that you and others were happy to bet that they would not lose their deposit.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 14, 2014 10:30:23 GMT
It was an evens bet which was clearly about right
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 14, 2014 10:35:35 GMT
Reminds me of an occasion when a trendy outsider was telling a relative of mine that they were going to a bar in the Northern Quarter. This caused some confusion, with the NQ being a marketing gimmick, and at the time an unknown concept to people who were from the area. The hipster was somewhat exasperated by the idea that what they were referring to was dodgy old Shudehill or dodgy old Stevenson Square. Yep I still remember my family getting their fruit and veg by the open air stalls on the road opposite the unicorn hotel behind the arndale centre. It was a bit of a poor area but had a hell of lot nicer people and more character there then there are now. And one of the stall holders was a Tory party officer in Greater Manchester East with my gran. I don't know if this has me down as a hipster, but I love the Northern Quarter! As a live music fan I go to the soul and jazz gigs at Band on the Wall and usually have a meal in the NQ first
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 14, 2014 10:41:22 GMT
I still think that Labour, in the north, are primarily picking up former LD's, and UKIP, former Conservatives.
However, in terms of marginals, a repeat of this will see us win all our northern targets with ease. I do think that is reasonable. There really is no sense of recovery.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 14, 2014 11:20:14 GMT
I'm talking about the way most people see and experience things in the North, Stuart. I'm not sure where you are based, but that's what I have picked up
I've never known such a sense of division within the country and I think this may be reflected at the next election.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 14, 2014 11:21:53 GMT
It seems likely that at least half, maybe more, of her vote came from Northenden ward itself - which means that it was at Rotherham/S Shields levels in the rest of the seat. I disagree with the posters playing down this outcome for the LibDems - IMO it is a pretty devastating result, one of their very worst since the GE. According to a startling stat tweeted by Mike Smithson, it is the lowest % of their total vote retained at a Westminster byelection in living memory
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 14, 2014 11:35:42 GMT
And I note that the MSM is getting the blame for UKIP's chances being overhyped here. Having seen what some 'kippers were tweeting in the immediate aftermath of the vacancy being announced, I would beg to differ slightly
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 14, 2014 11:53:01 GMT
What is MSM ?
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 14, 2014 11:56:09 GMT
According to a startling stat tweeted by Mike Smithson, it is the lowest % of their total vote retained at a Westminster byelection in living memory Which is a made up statistic which is complete bollocks. In terms of number of votes, they retained 12.9% of their vote here compared with 7.5% in Rotherham, 6.8% in South Shields and 11.9% in Croydon, so it's only their 4th worst this cycle.
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Post by simoncooke on Feb 14, 2014 11:56:20 GMT
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Post by justin124 on Feb 14, 2014 12:12:16 GMT
I am somewhat concerned at the failure of Returning Officers to grant recounts when requested. Surely by so doing they make themselves vulnerable to a challenge in the courts and to public criticism from the offended party after the declaration for failing to conduct the count in a fair and proper way. I would not have thought that many Returning Officers would want such publicity.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 14, 2014 12:15:01 GMT
Whilst a full recount was refused, there was a bundle count - which the LibDems seemed to accept.
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Post by justin124 on Feb 14, 2014 12:24:35 GMT
I am making more general point though. There have been occasions where candidates have been miffed to have had their requests turned down. Had it happened to me I would have threatened the Returning Officer with court proceedings and very public criticism of his conduct after the declaration.
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tricky
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Post by tricky on Feb 14, 2014 12:36:46 GMT
We asked for a recount.
The Returning Officer went through his reasons for not granting one and made a strong argument for why he felt the number of votes was unlikely to change by enough.
We accepted his argument.
The Labour activist who called us "Pathetic scum doing something that stupid" was rather less gracious than we were. In fact Labour generally were highly unpleasant during the count to everyone.
EDIT: Last comment doesn't apply to the new MP who was significantly more polite than his activists.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2014 13:04:23 GMT
I am somewhat concerned at the failure of Returning Officers to grant recounts when requested. Surely by so doing they make themselves vulnerable to a challenge in the courts and to public criticism from the offended party after the declaration for failing to conduct the count in a fair and proper way. I would not have thought that many Returning Officers would want such publicity. I am not, a recount should only be ordered in the case of a close result for the winner and certainly not to save a parties deposit which might be embarrassing for them. Are we saying we should hold up the result so the LD's can see if they scramble the 20 or so votes they needed to save £500 and a public embarrassment ?
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Post by justin124 on Feb 14, 2014 13:11:37 GMT
I believe it has always been accepted that a recount may legitimately be requested when the Deposit is at risk - General Election results programmes as far back as the 1960s bear witness to that!
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