|
Post by dizz on Feb 14, 2014 2:58:44 GMT
So, the Lib Dem was 23 votes away from holding the deposit. For what it's worth, the number of votes I got in 2005 increased from 190 to 193 as a result of the three recounts. I'm afraid that"s worth very little mate….
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Feb 14, 2014 3:14:04 GMT
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Feb 14, 2014 3:19:05 GMT
Is Mike Kane now automatically selected as Labour candidate for the general election?
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Feb 14, 2014 3:19:54 GMT
Personally I would have taken 20% as the benchmark. Fairly arbitrary of course, but above that I'd have been happy below it a bit disappointed. They shouldn't have over-hyped their chances here although I appreciate the need to give an impression of momentum. I think the party has a bnit to learn about expectation management I didn't gain the impression the party over-hyped their chances. The Farage comments which are linked on a page here somewhere got the result pretty well right if a minor management element is added. It appears to me the over expectations were a product of the media lacking any idea or interest in what was happening on the ground. Surely any element of momentum was to gain the second place as was achieved as the first place was never in doubt. Subject to the assessment of the forum member on the ground I'm very satisfied at this result for UKIP. It is once again saying to voters in safe Labour areas that if you oppose Labour it is simply between them and UKIP. I'd have to agree with that. The important thing for UKIP is that they came second and beat the Conservatives, it would have looked very bad for them if they hadn't, for the reasons you gave. It also shows how far expectations have changed that prior to the Rotherham by election less than 15 months ago a result like this would have been hailed as by far their best ever result, now people are saying its mildly disappointing for them!
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Feb 14, 2014 3:29:46 GMT
So, the Lib Dem was 23 votes away from holding the deposit. For what it's worth, the number of votes I got in 2005 increased from 190 to 193 as a result of the three recounts. I'm afraid that"s worth very little mate…. My purpose in mentioning it was to give some sort of context to the thought that a deficit of 23 votes might be enough of a reason for a recount. Now that I have dug out my old bit of paper, the number of votes for me went from 190 to 192 to 193; UKIP went from 1068 to 1069 to 1066; Lib Dem went from 6386 to 6393 to 6384; Green went from 1035 to 1036. the biggest changes were Conservative which went from 20054 to 19992 to 19974, and Labour which went from 19931 to 19917 to 19899. The latter two lost votes essentially to spoilt, mostly on the grounds that they didn't have the official mark.
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Feb 14, 2014 4:34:06 GMT
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Feb 14, 2014 4:58:28 GMT
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Feb 14, 2014 7:15:36 GMT
The Announcement
Interview with the winner
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Feb 14, 2014 7:26:14 GMT
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Feb 14, 2014 7:27:46 GMT
|
|
carlton43
Non-Aligned
Posts: 48,338
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 14, 2014 7:40:50 GMT
I was tired and didn't stay up. Disappointed at refusal of BBC to show any interest at all. Just got up to find I have made best straight forecast of my life in muti-candidate by-election.
Lab 55 55.4 UKIP 18 17.9 Con 15 14.5 LD 5 4.9 BNP 4 3.0 GN 2.5 3.1 Loon 0.5 1.2
Total 'error' points only 3.4 and one minor position. Doesn't get much better than that.
I consider that an excellent result for UKIP with a third portion to Labour of the vote in a seat where the poll was held very very promptly so that Labour could best benefit from historic incumbency and postal vote organization advantage. UKIP carving out an expectation of the second place in much of England. As this becomes better recognized it will squeeze the perceived 'inferior' anti-Labour vote the better. We are very much 'ON Our Way'. Congratulations to the Labour machine, but I would be a bit concerned in this final run-up to the GE not to be pulling out over 60% in a GM seat like this.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2014 8:23:53 GMT
Lab 55 UKIP 19 Con 15 LD 7 BNP 2 Green 2 Loony 0
Not quite as good as Carlton but not bad! Bit annoyed the tories didn't get second, still think it was very doable with a good candidate.
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 14, 2014 8:27:26 GMT
By-election speeches are always, of course, utterly full of bull, and this has not disappointed.
I'm not sure I agree with Mike Kane's analysis that a traditionally safe Labour seat replacing its Labour MP with a Labour MP sends a message to Cameron. I don't remember Blair crapping it when the Tories held Bromley and Chislehurst, where no doubt Bob Neill made a similar speech.
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 14, 2014 8:34:19 GMT
Personally I would have taken 20% as the benchmark. Fairly arbitrary of course, but above that I'd have been happy below it a bit disappointed. They shouldn't have over-hyped their chances here although I appreciate the need to give an impression of momentum. I think the party has a bnit to learn about expectation management I didn't gain the impression the party over-hyped their chances. The Farage comments which are linked on a page here somewhere got the result pretty well right if a minor management element is added. It appears to me the over expectations were a product of the media lacking any idea or interest in what was happening on the ground. Surely any element of momentum was to gain the second place as was achieved as the first place was never in doubt. Subject to the assessment of the forum member on the ground I'm very satisfied at this result for UKIP. It is once again saying to voters in safe Labour areas that if you oppose Labour it is simply between them and UKIP. Fair comment. Certainly happy to get 2nd in this sort of Metropolitan seat. I suppose 20% would have just been the icing
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 14, 2014 8:49:06 GMT
I was tired and didn't stay up. Disappointed at refusal of BBC to show any interest at all. Just got up to find I have made best straight forecast of my life in muti-candidate by-election. Lab 55 55.4 UKIP 18 17.9 Con 15 14.5 LD 5 4.9 BNP 4 3.0 GN 2.5 3.1 Loon 0.5 1.2 Total 'error' points only 3.4 and one minor position. Doesn't get much better than that. I consider that an excellent result for UKIP with a third portion to Labour of the vote in a seat where the poll was held very very promptly so that Labour could best benefit from historic incumbency and postal vote organization advantage. UKIP carving out an expectation of the second place in much of England. As this becomes better recognized it will squeeze the perceived 'inferior' anti-Labour vote the better. We are very much 'ON Our Way'. Congratulations to the Labour machine, but I would be a bit concerned in this final run-up to the GE not to be pulling out over 60% in a GM seat like this. 3.4 faults with 7 candidates is a great result
|
|
carlton43
Non-Aligned
Posts: 48,338
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 14, 2014 8:51:24 GMT
Lab 55 UKIP 19 Con 15 LD 7 BNP 2 Green 2 Loony 0 Not quite as good as Carlton but not bad! Bit annoyed the tories didn't get second, still think it was very doable with a good candidate. Good prediction Joe. You had one of the most crap candidates I can remember the Tories putting up for years. Eastleigh was not that hot either. Someone needs to take your by-election strategy 'in hand'!!
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,275
|
Post by Tony Otim on Feb 14, 2014 9:09:18 GMT
Like several recent by-elections, it feels like a fairly par for the course result.
A solid hold for Labour with a healthy increase in vote without being spectacular. UKIP got a decent second and coming into un-hyped would have been pretty pleased with the result (although coming into it unhyped may not have achieved that result). It does feel slightly like they've managed to make a decent result feel a little less good. Conservatives had a weak candidate. Under the circumstances their vote didn't crumble too badly, but with a good candidate might have held second? LDs - not much to smile about, but they knew that. No worse than many other by-elections. Will be disappointed not to hold deposit, but I suspect have long realised that in areas they're not in contention next year will be difficult. For us, I thought going into about 3% would be an Ok result, so we did OK. Actually it's a step forward actually having a candidate! Pleased to beat BNP. Would have been nice to catch LDs but that's hard in a parliamentary by-election. BNP - further confirmation of decline although not quite dead yet. Falling from 4th to 6th. OMRLP - Decent enough vote.
Oh and congratulations ro Carlton on his prediction.
|
|
|
Post by Philip Davies on Feb 14, 2014 9:09:25 GMT
My prediction UKIP John Bickley 19.7 Monster Raving Loony Captain Chaplington-Smythe 0.4 Conservative Daniel Critchlow 14.8 Liberal Democrat Mary di Mauro 5.2 Labour Mike Kane 55.3 BNP Eddy O'Sullivan 2.0 Green Nigel Woodcock 2.6
Total error 4.6 Was spot on for Labour. All others less than <1% out except for 1.7% on UKIP. Much better than my recent by-election predictions!
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,275
|
Post by Tony Otim on Feb 14, 2014 9:14:25 GMT
I'd hazard a guess at something like this for the result: Lab 57 UKIP 18 Con 13.5 LD 5.5 Grn 3 BNP 2 OMRLP 1 4.6 faults I make it.
|
|
carlton43
Non-Aligned
Posts: 48,338
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 14, 2014 9:23:28 GMT
Like several recent by-elections, it feels like a fairly par for the course result. A solid hold for Labour with a healthy increase in vote without being spectacular. UKIP got a decent second and coming into un-hyped would have been pretty pleased with the result (although coming into it unhyped may not have achieved that result). It does feel slightly like they've managed to make a decent result feel a little less good. Conservatives had a weak candidate. Under the circumstances their vote didn't crumble too badly, but with a good candidate might have held second? LDs - not much to smile about, but they knew that. No worse than many other by-elections. Will be disappointed not to hold deposit, but I suspect have long realised that in areas they're not in contention next year will be difficult. For us, I thought going into about 3% would be an Ok result, so we did OK. Actually it's a step forward actually having a candidate! Pleased to beat BNP. Would have been nice to catch LDs but that's hard in a parliamentary by-election. BNP - further confirmation of decline although not quite dead yet. Falling from 4th to 6th. OMRLP - Decent enough vote. Oh and congratulations ro Carlton on his prediction. Thanks Tony. Sound analysis. My prediction makes up for my dismal showing on the other thread. This by-election was suppose fairly easy to cast but it is still nice to be so close all the way through.
|
|