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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 14, 2014 17:21:16 GMT
I'm not suggesting that for a moment, although after last night John Leach is even more of a 'dead man walking' than he was already. However, I am genuinely bemused by the apparent lack of concern from the LibDems in the face of these continual electoral disasters. I don't doubt that they will hold onto a fair few seats thanks to local campaigning and popular incumbents, but not every LibDem MP is a Tim Farron or a Simon Hughes - they are more than capable of losing sitting MPs even in a more benign political environment like 2010. And even if the '57 by-elections' strategy works, what future do they have as a national party if they're just a collection of quasi-independent local notables scattered here and there? It makes them very vulnerable when those incumbents eventually retire, and if their support simply disappears everywhere outside those 57 seats, it makes it very difficult for them to grow and to gain seats. I look at LibDemVoice occasionally and they have news about candidate selection. Several constituencies where they had an MP until last time - like Romsey - or which were long-term targets don't even have PPC's yet. They certainly are taking it more manly then either your or my party would though, you've got to kind of admire that. I cant disagree with much else you've written though But are they taking it on the chin because of strength of character, or because they're not facing up to the likely consequences? There comes a point at which panic ceases to be irrational.
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Post by Devonian on Feb 14, 2014 17:42:00 GMT
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 14, 2014 17:55:58 GMT
But essentially, they are not taking many votes from Labour in these sort of seats, What we are seeing is working class Tories switching to UKIP. And that is going to mean Labour gains where it needs to
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2014 18:24:30 GMT
any votes they do take from is being compensated by the LD collapse. Of course UKIP having a message of protect all your benefits will go down well in Southern england ...
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 14, 2014 18:39:08 GMT
Those two are a pair of dishonest hacks. Typical examples of the moral rot that's been eating away at intellectual life in this country since the crutch provided by Marxism was kicked away in the 1980s.
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Post by Devonian on Feb 14, 2014 18:50:23 GMT
Those two are a pair of dishonest hacks. I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong but what evidence are you basing that opinion on?
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 14, 2014 19:02:49 GMT
All aboard the gravy train!
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 14, 2014 19:06:20 GMT
Basically these people came up with a (stupid and reductive, but whatevers) theory to explain the inevitable rise of the BNP, peddled it wherever they could and stood to cash in greatly from this. Then the BNP ruined everything by effectively committing suicide. But, what's that over there? UKIP! A very different sort of protest party, but who cares? Let's disinter the theory and peddle it about UKIP now.
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 14, 2014 20:15:52 GMT
Very good review of last night's result from Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin on the Telegraph blogs I never understand this argument about the weather apparently affecting one party's vote more than others. If the rain it raineth every day, then presumably it rains on voters of all political persuasions and none...
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 14, 2014 20:24:28 GMT
I think the assumption maybe was that Tory voters would be more likely to have cars to drive to the polling station and Labour voters would have to walk. Probably a little outdated
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Post by justin124 on Feb 14, 2014 20:45:00 GMT
On the subject of counting of votes, I have been intrigued by what appears at counts covered in BBC Election results programmes relating to 1955, 1959 and 1964. Nowadays those of us who attend the counting of votes as party scrutineers are well aware that we are strictly forbidden to touch the ballot papers ourselves.This was certainly the established practice by the time I first went along to a County Council count in April 1973. I was,therefore, a bit taken aback when watching the early part of the 1964 programme to observe that at Billericay the counting staff were handing over to the party scrutineers bundles of ballot papers for the latter to check after being counted! The party representatives were clearly identified by the wearing of rosettes. I saw the same thing happen at counts broadcast on the 1959 and 1955 programmes. I just wondered whether anybody has information as to when and why this practice was discontinued.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 14, 2014 21:01:08 GMT
I think the assumption maybe was that Tory voters would be more likely to have cars to drive to the polling station and Labour voters would have to walk. Probably a little outdated I do recall a December by-election we called in a safe (ish) (well, it had been up till then) Labour ward where they held on by 3 votes and we were roundly condemned by the Labour Party for "calling a byelection when they knew it would be snowing". Lib Dems - Weather Forecasting Here
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 14, 2014 21:23:29 GMT
I think the assumption maybe was that Tory voters would be more likely to have cars to drive to the polling station and Labour voters would have to walk. Probably a little outdated I do recall a December by-election we called in a safe (ish) (well, it had been up till then) Labour ward where they held on by 3 votes and we were roundly condemned by the Labour Party for "calling a byelection when they knew it would be snowing". Lib Dems - Weather Forecasting Here (said in Michael Fish voice...) " A woman has rung the BBC and said that she'd heard snow was on its way, and should she go out and vote....Well,not to worry that's what postal ballots are for..."
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Feb 14, 2014 22:09:08 GMT
I left off commenting until after the result was declared. Some part of me was still hoping that the BNP might surprise everyone.
As it stands now, I hate where this leaves the party. It's a bad result, but it's not bad enough to get them to pack it in, take some time out (there European seat is a lost cause) and reorganise. After UKIP has let its true colours shine through, they could come back (hopefully with some fresher faces and an updated platform; maybe adopting some ethnic-pluralist ideas) and make another go of it.
That won't happen. I know it won't because they've crafted a narrative. It goes like this; the public were finally waking up ("opening their eyes!") in 2009, the state took notice and made a concerted effort to destroy them, arch-Tyndallites took advantage of this and attempted to usurp power from Griffin, they were valiantly done away with by a still united party, their slow progress in making up for what they've lost is because of UKIP and the answer is to do whatever is necessary to show that party up as an agent of the neo-liberal order.
Their disgraceful behaviour during this by-election proves that they're completely caught up in this narrative and their result wasn't dreadful enough to snap them out of their fantasy. And what'll the nationalist movement we gain from it? Six guaranteed years of limping on. Ugh!
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 14, 2014 23:36:43 GMT
I left off commenting until after the result was declared. Some part of me was still hoping that the BNP might surprise everyone. As it stands now, I hate where this leaves the party. It's a bad result, but it's not bad enough to get them to pack it in, take some time out (there European seat is a lost cause) and reorganise. After UKIP has let its true colours shine through, they could come back (hopefully with some fresher faces and an updated platform; maybe adopting some ethnic-pluralist ideas) and make another go of it. That won't happen. I know it won't because they've crafted a narrative. It goes like this; the public were finally waking up ("opening their eyes!") in 2009, the state took notice and made a concerted effort to destroy them, arch-Tyndallites took advantage of this and attempted to usurp power from Griffin, they were valiantly done away with by a still united party, their slow progress in making up for what they've lost is because of UKIP and the answer is to do whatever is necessary to show that party up as an agent of the neo-liberal order. Their disgraceful behaviour during this by-election proves that they're completely caught up in this narrative and their result wasn't dreadful enough to snap them out of their fantasy. And what'll the nationalist movement we gain from it? Six guaranteed years of limping on. Ugh! That was Sterling stuff Cromwell. I hope you havn't stopped your medication again you naughty boy? Nurse, I think we need some help here. So, you see us as 'the running dog agents of neo-liberalist tendencies', in which case we hardly threaten the brave new world order that is BNP....Do we? We have acquired all the territory you used to stand on and your naked revanchiste feelings have boiled over. In fact that seat was a tough call because of the quality of the Labour candidate and his in depth campaign. That is a seat where no other party is going to make much progress without years of solid spadework in council wards with good candidates. In truth the BNP is an unreasonably incohate body of oddities incorporating some distinctly nasty elements....and it only ever made progress in some old working class areas when Labour was less in touch with the core support than it should be. The more flakey elements seeking a less cerebral alternative repository than the LibDems for a protest used BNP at a stop gap before finding out what a lot of useless half-wit plonkers they were when elected. Your weak candle is guttering in the draught of a strong breeze termed UKIP. Get used to it....LOSER !
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2014 7:50:49 GMT
I did not get a chance to give my own assessment of the result due to work commitments and taking the wife out for Valentine's Day.
An unsurprising result in a seat that would have eluded us even in 1983, roughly in line with most of the predictions that were made upthread. Even if this by-election had been held in summer 2008, I don't think we'd have won - Labour topped the aggregate vote in the local elections that year across the constituency.
Everyone knew the Conservatives, as the main governing party, weren't ever going to seriously compete in this by-election, so there was no real motivation for right of centre voters to stick with us. That said, it could have been even worse, and we should be able to regain second place in 2015 - just as we did in Sedgefield and Ealing, Southall in 2010.
Hard luck on the LibDems for so narrowly losing £500. Their voters were similarly unmotivated, and went over to the inevitable winners. Congratulations to Labour.
UKIP should not feel any disappointment. If I were one of their supporters, I would be content with the fact that they came second. Coming third would have been a bad result for them, based on their earlier performances in this Parliament.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2014 8:29:21 GMT
Someone has kindly filmed the declaration and posted it on YouTube.
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Feb 15, 2014 15:18:27 GMT
I left off commenting until after the result was declared. Some part of me was still hoping that the BNP might surprise everyone. As it stands now, I hate where this leaves the party. It's a bad result, but it's not bad enough to get them to pack it in, take some time out (there European seat is a lost cause) and reorganise. After UKIP has let its true colours shine through, they could come back (hopefully with some fresher faces and an updated platform; maybe adopting some ethnic-pluralist ideas) and make another go of it. That won't happen. I know it won't because they've crafted a narrative. It goes like this; the public were finally waking up ("opening their eyes!") in 2009, the state took notice and made a concerted effort to destroy them, arch-Tyndallites took advantage of this and attempted to usurp power from Griffin, they were valiantly done away with by a still united party, their slow progress in making up for what they've lost is because of UKIP and the answer is to do whatever is necessary to show that party up as an agent of the neo-liberal order. Their disgraceful behaviour during this by-election proves that they're completely caught up in this narrative and their result wasn't dreadful enough to snap them out of their fantasy. And what'll the nationalist movement we gain from it? Six guaranteed years of limping on. Ugh! That was Sterling stuff Cromwell. I hope you havn't stopped your medication again you naughty boy? Nurse, I think we need some help here. Eat a dick.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 15, 2014 18:40:59 GMT
Their disgraceful behaviour during this by-election proves that they're completely caught up in this narrative and their result wasn't dreadful enough to snap them out of their fantasy. And what'll the nationalist movement we gain from it? Six guaranteed years of limping on. Ugh! Whose behaviour? And in what way was it disgraceful?
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Feb 15, 2014 18:56:08 GMT
Their disgraceful behaviour during this by-election proves that they're completely caught up in this narrative and their result wasn't dreadful enough to snap them out of their fantasy. And what'll the nationalist movement we gain from it? Six guaranteed years of limping on. Ugh! Whose behaviour? And in what way was it disgraceful? The BNP's... Whilst I'm unsure of some of UKIP's more colourful accusations; they're campaign of hounding the UKIP candidate confirms, not only that they're fully invested in the idiotic narrative that they've constructed but also, that they've lost touch with reality (it was an ordeal to sit for the utter tripe they've been pumping out on BNPtv and even worse was their belief that this was "the best campaign we've run").
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