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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2014 13:05:53 GMT
Amber Valley
Con 33
Lab 62
Lib 5
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2014 13:13:54 GMT
Lichfield could really be any one of the four - very hard to predict!
Im going for
Lab 30.1
Con 29.9
UKIP 22
LD 18
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2014 13:20:24 GMT
Moray
Ind (Mcrae) 40
SNP 38
Ind (Cowie) 15
Con 7
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Post by casualobserver on Jan 27, 2014 17:25:09 GMT
Amber Valley
Con 27.6%
Lab 67.6%
LD 4.8%
Lichfield
Lab 30.4%
Con 34.8%
UKIP 16.0%
LD 18.8%
Moray
Ind(M) 48.0%
SNP 42.1%
Ind(C) 5.2%
Con 4.7%
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Post by Robert Waller on Jan 29, 2014 21:29:17 GMT
Amber Valley
Con 30%
Lab 64%
LD 6%
Lichfield
Lab 30.6%
Con 30.4%
UKIP 17
LD 22%
Moray
Ind(M) 25%
SNP 38%
Ind(C) 30%
Con 7%
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Post by marksenior on Jan 29, 2014 23:27:57 GMT
Amber Valley Lab 62 Con 32 LD 6
Lichfield LD 30 Lab 28 Con 22 UKIP 20
Moray SNP 39 Ind(M) 31 Ind (C) 19 Con 11 Ind(M) elected
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Post by Deleted on Jan 29, 2014 23:37:19 GMT
Amber Valley
Con 28%
Lab 67%
LD 5%
Lichfield
Lab 34%
Con 28%
UKIP 14%
LD 24%
Moray
Ind(M) 20%
SNP 40%
Ind(C) 31%
Con 9%
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 29, 2014 23:54:35 GMT
Here goes nothing.
AMBER VALLEY Heanor East: Lab 62, C 33, L Dem 5
LICHFIELD Chadsmead: C 34, L Dem 28, Lab 26, UKIP 12
MORAY Buckie: SNP 41, G. Cowie 34, M. MacRae 20, C 5
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 30, 2014 1:30:42 GMT
Buckie McRae35 SNP29 Cowie26 Con10
Chadsmead Con30 Lab28 UKIP22 LDem20
Heanor Lab58 Con34 LDem8
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Post by brianj on Jan 30, 2014 2:55:08 GMT
Amber Valley- Heanor East: Labour 69, Conservative 20, LibDem 11
Lichfield- Chadsmead: Conservative 35, Labour 25, LibDem 23, UKIP 17
Moray- Buckie: SNP 32, McRae 30, Cowie 26, Conservative 12
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Post by hempie on Jan 30, 2014 8:03:19 GMT
Amber Valley,Heanor East: Lab 58, Con 33, LD 9
Lichfield, Chadsmead: Lab 34, Con 26, LD 25, UKIP 15
Moray,Buckie: SNP 36, McRae 35, Cowie 18, Con 11
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Tony Otim
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Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 30, 2014 9:03:16 GMT
Amber Valley: Lab 64.2 Con 28.7 LD 7.1 Lichfield: LD 30.0 Con 29.8 Lab 23.4 UKIP 16.8 Moray: SNP 41.4 Ind C 26.2 Ind M 22.8 Con 9.6 (FWIW - if that results anywhere near close, I reckon enough votes won't transfer between the two indys that the Nats will hold on) |
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Post by Philip Davies on Jan 30, 2014 9:08:00 GMT
Amber Valley - Heanor East Steven GRAINGER [The Conservative Party Candidate] 32.5 Sheila OAKES [The Labour Party Candidate] 61.8 Kate SMITH [Liberal Democrat] 5.7 Lichfield - Chadsmead Marion BLAND [Liberal Democrat] 31 Bob GREEN [UK Independence Party (UKIP)] 15 Jon O'HAGAN [The Conservative Party Candidate] 24 Caroline WOOD [The Labour Party Candidate] 30 Moray - Buckie Gordon COWIE (Independent) 30 Margaret Irene GAMBLES (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 7 Marc MACRAE (Independent) 20 Linda MCDONALD (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 43 Cowie to win on transfers |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2014 9:13:14 GMT
The Lichfield LD has a very apt name for a candidate of that party.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 30, 2014 10:02:04 GMT
Amber Valley BC - Heanor East Lab 60.3% Con 34.1% LD 5.6% Lichfield DC - Chadsmead Lab 34.4% Con 29.1% UKIP 18.8% LD 17.7% Moray - Buckie SNP 38.1% Ind M 29.6% Ind C 25.5% Con 6.8% The Chadsmead one is one of the hardest to predict that we've had recently where it is just the main parties standing and not confused by Independents. I guess the LD candidate in this case is a de facto Independent in that while the LDs (with a different candidate) obtained only 7% in Lichfield North last May, the predictions here giving Marian Bland a vote share in the high 20s or better are not likely to be wildly out. I have a feeling I will have underestimated it |
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Post by marksenior on Jan 30, 2014 12:06:08 GMT
I agree that Chadsmead is very hard to predict .
Conservatives won last time but councillor disqualified and came 3rd in TC by election in this ward in 2012
Lib Dem former District Councillor for ward who was very close in 2011 and won the TC by election in this ward in 2012
Labour came close 3rd in 2011 and candidate came close 2nd in TC election in 2012 and won the much larger CC seat in May last year
UKIP not contested before but in a close 4 way contest may come through the middle .
Without total confidence I think the first 2 places will be between LD and Lab and would not be surprised if Conservatives went from 1st to 4th .
Just found the full TC result from 2012 , there were 2 seats LD 225/158 Lab 203/201 Con 176/143 Ind 31/20 1 LD and 1 Lab gain from Con
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 30, 2014 12:26:36 GMT
I wonder if Andy has any take on it
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Post by marksenior on Jan 30, 2014 12:33:27 GMT
He has a write up on it which says basically hard to call .
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 30, 2014 13:04:05 GMT
I meant Andy Stidwill who lives in Lichfield district (but has been rather quiet of late), not Andrew Teale who I would have referred to as Andrew since that is how he refers to himself and who may take exception to being called 'Andy' much as david Boothroyd does not like to be called Dave
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 30, 2014 19:56:34 GMT
14 entries again this week, all present and Bristol fashion; nothing from greatkingrat.
Amber Valley, Heanor East: 100% Labour hold, majority over Conservative ranges from 18% (Mike Cooper) to 49% (brianj)
Lichfield, Chadsmead: 6 Labour gain, 5 Conservative hold (briabj, carlton43, Casual Observer, David Boothroyd & Mike Cooper) with Mark Senior, PhilDAv and tonyotim a Lib Dem gain
- 5 Conservative 1st, 7 2nd, 2 3rd - 6 Labour 1st, 6 2nd, 2 3rd - 3 Lib Dem 1st, 1 2nd, 6 3rd, 4 4th
Moray, Buckie: 11 SNP ahead on first preferences, 3 Ind (M)
- however 8 have Ind (M) ahead of Ind (C) on first preferences, 6 have Ind (C) ahead of Ind (M)
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