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Post by marksenior on Jan 15, 2014 22:39:43 GMT
Trafford Lab 40 Con 35 UKIP 17 LD 5 Green 3
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2014 23:03:23 GMT
Trafford, Broadheath:
Lab: 42%
Con:36%
UKIP: 15%
LD: 4%
Green: 3%
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 16, 2014 0:13:23 GMT
TRAFFORD Broadheath: Lab 42, C 39, UKIP 10, GP 5, L Dem 4
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Post by brianj on Jan 16, 2014 4:34:29 GMT
TRAFFORD - Broadheath
Helen BOYLE (Labour Party Candidate) 43
Ron GEORGE (UK Independence Party) 22
Brenda HOURAGHAN (The Conservative Party Candidate) 30
Will JONES (Liberal Democrat) 2
Joe RYAN (The Green Party) 3
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Post by hempie on Jan 16, 2014 7:58:15 GMT
Trafford, Broadheath: Lab 42, Con 35, UKIP 12, LD 7, Green 4
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Post by Philip Davies on Jan 16, 2014 9:54:40 GMT
TRAFFORD - Broadheath Helen BOYLE (Labour Party Candidate) 40.4 Ron GEORGE (UK Independence Party) 16.4 Brenda HOURAGHAN (The Conservative Party Candidate) 35.1 Will JONES (Liberal Democrat) 4.6 Joe RYAN (The Green Party) 3.5 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 16, 2014 11:01:09 GMT
Trafford MB - Broadheath Lab 40.2% Con 37.6% UKIP 13.6% LD 5.1% Grn 3.5% |
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 16, 2014 21:57:13 GMT
12 entries this week with nothing from Carlton 43 and greatkingrat but brianj and Myth 11 make a first appearance.
tonyotom has Lab 40.8, Con 32.5, UKIP 18.0, LD 5.2, Grn 3.5
10 predict Labour gain from Conservative, Casual Observor & Joe a Conservative hold
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2014 22:16:28 GMT
My theory was that a low turnout in this sort of area (probably not too dissimilar to my Tynemouth which famously shows this trait) helps the Tories. I seem to be against the flow of opinion though. :s
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 16, 2014 23:06:41 GMT
I think your theory would probably hold good in a lot of such areas but the counterveiling consideration in this case was the exceptional Labour organisation in this ward which has been documented on the relevant thread (and on earlier discussions on the 2011 and 2012 elections)
edit: Of course your theory may yet hold good, I am just explaining why the 'flow of opinion' takes a different view. The flow of opinion here has been wrong often enough
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,890 
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 16, 2014 23:30:09 GMT
12 entries this week with nothing from Carlton 43 and greatkingrat but brianj and Myth 11 make a first appearance. tonyotom has Lab 40.8, Con 32.5, UKIP 18.0, LD 5.2, Grn 3.5 10 predict Labour gain from Conservative, Casual Observor & Joe a Conservative hold Damn, damn, damn!!! I am so sorry ME I just completely forgot it yesterday and have been out all day on first shopping trip for a month to Inverness. Good luck to everyone and especially the first appearances. Bad luck chaps, I am not there as ballast at the bottom of the heap tonight. |
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Post by brianj on Jan 17, 2014 0:54:19 GMT
Okay, that could have gone better.
(I was trying to make my prediction distinct, and I certainly accomplished that.)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 17, 2014 1:01:18 GMT
That result will have pushed Joe back again but I might have to worry about DAvid Boothroyd
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Post by Philip Davies on Jan 17, 2014 1:06:36 GMT
Trafford, Broadheath - subject to verification David Boothroyd 10.5 faults, Pete Whitehead 15.2, CatholicLeft 16.5+10, hempie 16.8, Robert Waller 18.5, Myth11 20.8, Joe 12.0+10, tonyotim 24.2, Casual Observer 16.8+10, brianj 30.5 and month to date: 96.1 Pete Whitehead 100.6 David Boothroyd 108.7 Joe 120.2 Mark Senior 121.6 Robert Waller 122.8 tonyotim 132.5 CatholicLeft 140.4 hempie 144.2 Casual Observer 149.8 PhilDav 203.9 Carlton43 207.9 greatkingrat 318.5 Myth11 330.5 brianj Objections please by 5.00 pm Saturday 2 contests next week. Predictions by 9.00 am Thursday What was my error total for Broadheath? |
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 17, 2014 1:13:00 GMT
Trafford, Broadheath - subject to verification
David Boothroyd 10.5 faults, Pete Whitehead 15.2, CatholicLeft 16.5, hempie 16.8, Robert Waller & Myth11 18.5, PhilDav 20.3, Mark Senior 20.8, Joe 12.0+10, tonyotim 24.2, Casual Observer 16.8+10, brianj 30.5
and month to date:
96.1 Pete Whitehead
100.6 David Boothroyd
108.7 Joe
120.2 Mark Senior
121.6 Robert Waller
122.8 tonyotim
132.5 CatholicLeft
140.4 hempie
144.2 Casual Observer
149.8 PhilDav
203.9 Carlton43
207.9 greatkingrat
318.5 Myth11
330.5 brianj
Objections please by 5.00 pm Saturday
2 contests next week. Predictions by 9.00 am Thursday
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 17, 2014 1:15:38 GMT
Trafford, Broadheath - subject to verification David Boothroyd 10.5 faults, Pete Whitehead 15.2, CatholicLeft 16.5, hempie 16.8, Robert Waller 18.5, Myth11 20.8, Joe 12.0+10, tonyotim 24.2, Casual Observer 16.8+10, brianj 30.5 and month to date: 96.1 Pete Whitehead 100.6 David Boothroyd 108.7 Joe 120.2 Mark Senior 121.6 Robert Waller 122.8 tonyotim 132.5 CatholicLeft 140.4 hempie 144.2 Casual Observer 149.8 PhilDav 203.9 Carlton43 207.9 greatkingrat 318.5 Myth11 330.5 brianj Objections please by 5.00 pm Saturday 2 contests next week. Predictions by 9.00 am Thursday What was my error total for Broadheath? Now corrected having missed both you and Mark Senior off, apologies |
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myth11
Non-Aligned
too busy at work!
Posts: 2,839
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Post by myth11 on Jan 17, 2014 2:17:42 GMT
SOUTHEND-ON-SEA - West Leigh
Christopher BAILEY (Liberal Democrat)32
Tino CALLAGHAN (United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP))8
Jane NORMAN (The Labour Party Candidate)12
Georgina PHILLIPS (The Conservative Party Candidate)48
NORTH LANARKSHIRE - Motherwell North
Bob BURGESS (Scottish Conservative and Unionist)6
Jordan LINDEN (Scottish National Party (SNP))28
Pat O'ROURKE (Scottish Labour Party Candidate)62
Neil WILSON (UKIP)4
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2014 8:42:04 GMT
SOUTHEND-ON-SEA
West Leigh
Christopher BAILEY (Liberal Democrat) 25
Tino CALLAGHAN (United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP)) 22
Jane NORMAN (The Labour Party Candidate) 7
Georgina PHILLIPS (The Conservative Party Candidate) 46
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 17, 2014 9:27:03 GMT
Congratulations to DAvid for this week!
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Post by casualobserver on Jan 20, 2014 9:00:08 GMT
SOUTHEND-ON-SEA - West Leigh
Con 39
UKIP 27
LD 23
Lab 11
NORTH LANARKSHIRE - Motherwell North
Lab 50
SNP 33
Con 13
UKIP 4
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