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Post by middleenglander on Jan 7, 2014 23:15:39 GMT
Salford, Swinton South
greatkingrat 14.3 faults, Pete Whitehead 14.7, David Boothroyd 15.3, tonyotim 15.4, PhilDav 21.9, Carlton43 22.6, Robert Waller 23.9, CatholicLeft 24.7, Joe 25.9, Mark Senior 26.1, Casual Observer 32.6, hempie 33.2
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Post by linders on Jan 7, 2014 23:53:21 GMT
Pleased to have significantly outperformed the Vote UK hive mind for the third Salford by-election in a row. You guys really don't think much of what I can do with a few hardy volunteers and a couple of hundred quid for leaflets do you...?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 7, 2014 23:57:46 GMT
Pleased to have significantly outperformed the Vote UK hive mind Care to mention the one prediction that got it closest? |
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Post by linders on Jan 8, 2014 0:03:06 GMT
Fair play to you David. No-one else was close.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 8, 2014 8:39:49 GMT
That was a decent result for you and your team there, linders, well done.
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Post by marksenior on Jan 8, 2014 9:40:06 GMT
When turnout is as low as it was 16.5% or so , a decent campaign with a few keen helpers can give a decent result in % terms just by getting your core support to vote . In actual numbers of voters it was the lowest number of Conservative votes in the ward ever
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 8, 2014 12:21:32 GMT
Sorry folks - new here, is there a good resource for finding out where the by-elections are? And any brief introductions to the Predictions threads? The by-elections for each date are posted on a separate thread here vote-2012.proboards.com/board/3/local-electionsGreatkingrat has traditionally performed the very useful task of listing the candidates and the previous results. To enter the prediction competition you simply predict the vote share for each candidate and are awarded faults according to how far the predictions for each candidate diverge from the actual result. You have to submit your prediction before 9am on the day of polling, either by posting on the relevant thread or by sending a private message to middleenglander |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
Member is Online
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 8, 2014 13:18:14 GMT
And any brief introductions to the Predictions threads? The by-elections for each date are posted on a separate thread here vote-2012.proboards.com/board/3/local-electionsGreatkingrat has traditionally performed the very useful task of listing the candidates and the previous results. To enter the prediction competition you simply predict the vote share for each candidate and are awarded faults according to how far the predictions for each candidate diverge from the actual result. You have to submit your prediction before 9am on the day of polling, either by posting on the relevant thread or by sending a private message to middleenglander There's also a 10 point fault for predicting the wrong winner and faults if your prediction doesn't add up to 100. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2014 13:48:59 GMT
Might be worth someone writing that up as a single post in a new thread entitled 'Prediction Competition Rules' and getting Kris to sticky it
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 8, 2014 14:11:46 GMT
Might be worth someone writing that up as a single post in a new thread entitled 'Prediction Competition Rules' and getting Kris to sticky it If so, should there be any additional tweaks? What about 5-point penalty for getting 2nd, 3rd and 4th places wrong as well? But no further than 4th. There is a penalty for wrong addition, so what about penalty for quoting wrong party or missing out aparty. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 8, 2014 14:19:28 GMT
The winner is the one who gets to be a councillor; the order of the runners-up does not matter.
There is a penalty for wrong party, if it isn't an obvious mistake. If the candidates are Conservative, Independent and Green, and someone predicts for Conservative, Liberal Democrat and UKIP, they get a penalty.
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 8, 2014 14:24:20 GMT
The winner is the one who gets to be a councillor; the order of the runners-up does not matter. There is a penalty for wrong party, if it isn't an obvious mistake. If the candidates are Conservative, Independent and Green, and someone predicts for Conservative, Liberal Democrat and UKIP, they get a penalty. "...the order of runners-up does not matter," Well, perhaps to you in an actual contest, but this is a contest for fun. In fact I would put it to you that the order of runners-up often matters a great deal, if in a hard fought campaign one slips from 2nd to 3rd. Don't you think so? |
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 8, 2014 14:41:29 GMT
The winner is the one who gets to be a councillor; the order of the runners-up does not matter. Except in Scottish elections where we take just first preferences. Someone could be ahead here, and "wins" as far as the competition is concerned, but loses out in subsequent rounds and does not become a councillor. Late entries are penalised at 5 faults per hour or part hour for the first 4 hours and then at a rate of 10 faults per hour or part hour. Someone posting at 09.00.59 seconds is not penalised but if it is 09.01.00 they are. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,759 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 8, 2014 15:11:21 GMT
The winner is the one who gets to be a councillor; the order of the runners-up does not matter. There is a penalty for wrong party, if it isn't an obvious mistake. If the candidates are Conservative, Independent and Green, and someone predicts for Conservative, Liberal Democrat and UKIP, they get a penalty. "...the order of runners-up does not matter," Well, perhaps to you in an actual contest, but this is a contest for fun. In fact I would put it to you that the order of runners-up often matters a great deal, if in a hard fought campaign one slips from 2nd to 3rd. Don't you think so? Well that stymies my initial toe in the water for February, as my dice-rolling has put three candidates all on the same percentage! |
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 8, 2014 16:12:10 GMT
"...the order of runners-up does not matter," Well, perhaps to you in an actual contest, but this is a contest for fun. In fact I would put it to you that the order of runners-up often matters a great deal, if in a hard fought campaign one slips from 2nd to 3rd. Don't you think so? Well that stymies my initial toe in the water for February, as my dice-rolling has put three candidates all on the same percentage! You can have two or more leading candidates on the same percentage. It just means that you will get a proportion of the 10 faults, as someone you predicted will not win, or even the full 10 points if another candidate altogether wins. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jan 8, 2014 20:34:53 GMT
St Edmundsbury, Haverhill East: UKIP 39, Lab 27, Con 27, LD 7
Tonbridge & Malling, Borough Green & Long Mill: Con 42, Ind 20, UKIP 25, Lab 10, Green 3
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Post by marksenior on Jan 8, 2014 23:44:45 GMT
St Edmundsbury UKIP 41 Lab 26 Con 22 LD 11
Tonbridge/Malling Con 45 Ind 22 UKIP 22 Lab 9 Green 2
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 8, 2014 23:55:33 GMT
ST EDMUNDSBURY Haverhill East: UKIP 38, Lab 27, C 25, L Dem 10
TONBRIDGE and MALLING Borough Green and Long Mill: C 45, Ind 28, UKIP 14, Lab 9, GP 4
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Post by greatkingrat on Jan 9, 2014 0:21:04 GMT
ST EDMUNDSBURY - UKIP 32, Lab 30, Con 28, LD 10
TONBRIDGE AND MALLING - Con 44, UKIP 23, Ind 20, Lab 10, Grn 3
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 9, 2014 0:31:32 GMT
ST.E HAV.E UKIP37 CON28 LAB25 LD10
TON & MALL BH & LM CON37 IND22 UKIP32 LAB7 GN2
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