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Post by Philip Davies on Oct 25, 2013 16:12:40 GMT
I found it...what surprised me was how decisively that Labour won the by-election. Two reasons. People in the ward felt they'd in some way been cheated by the declared result in May and wanted to put things right. Second, there had been quite an improvement in Labour's popularity over the summer of 1978, to the extent that Sunny Jim Callaghan was expected to call a General Election that autumn. If I remember correctly, just before the by-election took place Callaghan went to the TUC and teased the delegates, singing a little ditty ("Can't get away to marry you today, my wife won't let me") but then made it clear on by-election day itself he WASN'T going to the country. Big mistake. That makes sense. I remember seeing the result of a London Borough election from either 1968 or 1971 where there had been an obvious cock up in the count and the result, but it didn't effect who would've been elected. It was certainly in a multi-member seat. |
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Post by countryboy on Oct 25, 2013 16:12:46 GMT
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Post by Philip Davies on Oct 25, 2013 16:15:41 GMT
Two reasons. People in the ward felt they'd in some way been cheated by the declared result in May and wanted to put things right. Second, there had been quite an improvement in Labour's popularity over the summer of 1978, to the extent that Sunny Jim Callaghan was expected to call a General Election that autumn. If I remember correctly, just before the by-election took place Callaghan went to the TUC and teased the delegates, singing a little ditty ("Can't get away to marry you today, my wife won't let me") but then made it clear on by-election day itself he WASN'T going to the country. Big mistake. That makes sense. I remember seeing the result of a London Borough election from either 1968 or 1971 where there had been an obvious cock up in the count and the result, but it didn't effect who would've been elected. It was certainly in a multi-member seat. Found it. It was the Harrow 3 member seat for the GLC in 1970. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 25, 2013 16:27:13 GMT
The unusual thing about the Harrow 1970 cockup is that significantly more votes were reported than had actually been cast.
I seem to remember there was also an Enfield borough council ward which suffered a severe tallying breakdown in the 1970s although it didn't affect the result, but can't track down details right now.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 25, 2013 16:31:19 GMT
Ah found it. It was three wards in the 1968 elections, Craig Park, Highfield and West. Ross McWhirter was the lead litigant in ordering a recount.
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 25, 2013 17:08:27 GMT
Charnwood, Loughborough Hastings - Labour hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Labour | 554 | 61.4% | -4.1% | -5.9% | +1.2% | +1.2% | | Conservative | 127 | 14.1% | -20.4% | -18.7% | -25.7% | -25.7% | | UKIP | 111 | 12.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | British Democratic | 85 | 9.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 26 | 2.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Total votes | 903 |
| -872 | -783 | -425 | -399 |
Swing Conservative to Labour 6½% / 8% since 2011 and 13½% since 2007 Charnwood, Shepshed West - Labour gain from Conservative | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Labour | 683 | 48.1% | +9.4% | +10.1% | +22.1% | +22.3% | | Conservative | 560 | 39.4% | -2.0% | -3.5% | +9.4% | +9.0% | | Lib Dem | 178 | 12.5% | -7.4% | -6.7% | -9.2% | -7.8% | | BNP |
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| -22.4% | -23.5% | | Total votes | 1,421 |
| -994 | -865 | -989 | Row 6 column 7 |
Swing Conservative to Labour 6% / 7% since both 2011 and 2007 Fife, Dunfermline South - Labour hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2007 | | Labour | 2,552 | 39.7% | -3.0% | +8.3% | | SNP | 2,057 | 32.0% | +5.3% | +9.2% | | Lib Dem | 1,009 | 15.7% | -4.9% | -19.4% | | Conservative | 450 | 7.0% | +0.6% | -0.4% | | Green | 183 | 2.8% | -0.7% | -0.5% | | UKIP | 183 | 2.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Total votes | 6,434 |
| +663 | -522 |
Swing Labour to SNP 4.1% since 2012 and 0.5% since 2007, mainly from sharp fall in Lib Dem share Havant, Waterloo - Conservative hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | since 2008 B | since 2008 | | Conservative | 683 | 44.0% | -16.3% | -22.8% | -11.8% | -4.7% | -26.2% | | Lib Dem | 446 | 28.7% | +12.6% | +15.4% | -2.7% | -17.2% | +9.4% | | UKIP | 296 | 19.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 129 | 8.3% | -15.4% | -3.8% | -0.6% | +2.9% | -2.2% | | Green |
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| -7.8% | -3.9% |
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| | Total votes | 1,564 |
| -660 | -1,762 | -3,685 | -191 | -1,022 |
Swing Conservative to Lib Dem 14% since 2012, 19% since 2011, 4½% since 2010 and 18% since 2008 - although Lib Dem to Conservative of 6% since September 2008 by-election Norfolk, North Walsham East - Lib Dem hold | Party | 2013 B votes | 2013 B share | since 2013 | since 2009 | since 2005 | | Lib Dem | 1,044 | 40.9% | +5.8% | -11.5% | -8.1% | | UKIP | 565 | 22.1% | -1.0% | +9.4% | from nowhere | | Labour | 442 | 17.3% | -3.9% | +12.1% | +1.8% | | Conservative | 359 | 14.1% | -2.4% | -10.1% | -17.5% | | Green | 80 | 3.1% | -0.9% | -2.4% | from nowhere | | Independent | 61 | 2.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | English Democrat |
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| -3.7% | | Total votes | 2,551 | | -491 | -1,092 | -3,400 |
Swing UKIP to Lib Dem 3.4% since May 2013 but 10% Lib Dem to UKIP since 2009 South Lanarkshire, Hamilton South - Labour gain from SNP | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2007 | | Labour | 1,781 | 51.7% | +0.3% | +3.2% | | SNP | 1,120 | 32.5% | +0.0% | +8.7% | | Conservative | 322 | 9.4% | +0.2% | -1.3% | | Christian | 133 | 3.9% | +0.8% | from nowhere | | UKIP | 86 | 2.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Pensioner |
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| -5.7% | | Green |
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| -2.5% | | Independent x 2 |
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| -9.0% | | Total votes | 3,442 |
| -1,950 | -4,082 |
Little change since 2012 and 2½% swing Labour to SNP since 2007 Teignbridge, Bovey - Conservative hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Conservative | 933 | 50.3% | +11.0% | +11.2% | +1.8% | +0.6% | | Lib Dem | 472 | 25.5% | -1.0% | +1.2% | -26.0% | -24.8% | | UKIP | 253 | 13.6% | +6.6% | +6.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 196 | 10.6% | +2.9% | +2.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent |
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| -11.3% | -12.3% |
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| -8.1% | -8.8% |
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| | Total votes | 1,854 |
| -2,420 | -2,087 | -1,166 | -903 |
Swing Lib Dem to Conservative 5% / 6% since 2011 and 12½% / 14% since 2007 West Sussex, Warnham & Rusper - Conservative hold | Party | 2013 B votes | 2013 B share | since 2013 | since 2009 | since 2005 | | Conservative | 868 | 58.3% | +3.2% | -0.6% | +1.8% | | UKIP | 335 | 22.5% | -7.7% | +3.2% | from nowhere | | Green | 119 | 8.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dem | 103 | 6.9% | -7.9% | -10.8% | -22.0% | | Labour | 65 | 4.4% | from nowhere | +0.3% | -10.2% | | Total votes | 1,490 |
| -742 | -1,536 | -4,204 |
Swing UKIP to Conservative 5½% since May 2013 but 2% Conservative to UKIP since 2009 Wigan, Winstanley - Labour hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | since 2008 | | Labour | 746 | 42.1% | -6.9% | -6.2% | -1.4% | +8.7% | | UKIP | 421 | 23.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +19.1% | from nowhere | | Community Action | 326 | 18.4% | -13.7% | from nowhere | +10.8% | -28.7% | | Conservative | 180 | 10.1% | +0.7% | -7.6% | -4.9% | -9.4% | | Green | 55 | 3.1% | -6.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent | 27 | 1.5% | from nowhere | -34.1% | -21.1% | from nowhere | | Lib Dem | 19 | 1.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | BNP |
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| -6.6% |
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| -711 | -1,356 | -3,892 | -1,771 |
Swing not meaningful Wirral, Upton - Labour hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | since 2008 | | Labour | 1,954 | 65.4% | +5.8% | +7.8% | +15.2% | +23.4% | | Conservative | 762 | 25.5% | +2.9% | -4.7% | -2.6% | -16.6% | | Green | 143 | 4.8% | -0.1% | +1.6% | +1.0% | -1.0% | | Lib Dem | 130 | 4.3% | +0.4% | -0.3% | -13.7% | -5.9% | | UKIP |
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| -9.1% | -4.5% |
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| | Total votes | 2,989 |
| -1,213 | -1,961 | -4,637 | -1,436 |
Swing Conservative to Labour 1½% since 2012, 6¼% since 2011, 9% since 2010 and 20% since 2008
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 3, 2013 10:49:17 GMT
I am not entirely comfortable with results like this being regarded as a gain/loss. Labour topped to poll in the STV election and did not need any swing to win the seat. Arguably, it is a Labour Hold. The councillor who departed causing the byelection was not Labour, was never Labour, so it could not be a Labour hold. People just have to look at the context. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 3, 2013 11:36:03 GMT
I agree in principle, but there is no perfect way to deal with the joys of single by-elections in multi-member STV seats!
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Nov 21, 2013 19:10:12 GMT
There could be a third category of 'Win'. I use this to describe the situation where a party that didn't hold a particular constituency in the previous parliament but was notionally expected to take it does so. But again, not easy to demonstrate in the usual kinds of tables!
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