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Post by middleenglander on Sept 1, 2013 23:21:52 GMT
It looks like 30 by-elections during September:
- 10 on 5th September
- 5 on 12th
- 1 on 17th
- 4 on 10th
- 10 on 26th
16 of the contests are in District Councils where the last main election was in 2011
- although one seat saw a by-election in 2012 and another in 2013
2 are in Unitary Authorities where the last elections were in 2011
6 are in District Councils where the last main elections were in 2012
2 are in Metropolitan Boroughs where the last elections were in 2012
3 are in County Councils and 1 in an Unitary where the former councillor was elected in May this year
9 of the district elections are in single member, generally small electorate wards where the personal standing of the candidate may be as, if not more, important than their political affiliation.
Conservatives are defending 13 seats - 9 following the death of the previous councillor and 4 after a resignation resigination
Labour are defending 10 seats - 7 following a death and 3 a resignation
Lib Dems are defending 4 seats - 3 following a resignation and 1 disqualification for electoral malpractice
Independents are defending 3 2 seats - all both following a resignation
English Democrats are defending 1 seat following disqualification for non attendance.
With all of the nominations published the Conservatives have 30 candidates, Labour 25, Lib Dems 19, UKIP 28, Greens 9
there are 9 Independent candidates standing in 7 contests whilst there is 1 candidate each for BNP, English Democrats, National Front and Tendring 1st - a total of 124 candidates.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the election.
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dibs
Non-Aligned
Posts: 63
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Post by dibs on Sept 3, 2013 23:00:08 GMT
BOSTON - Fenside
UKIP 45 LAB 25 CON 20 LIBDEM 10
CARLISLE - Yewdale
LAB 45 CON 21 UKIP 19 LIBDEM 10 GRN 5
CHARNWOOD - Loughborough Ashby
LAB 40 CON 35 UKIP 25
CORNWALL - Wadebridge East
RUSH 28 LIBDEM 26 UKIP 19 LAB 15 CON 12
DAVENTRY - Ravensthorpe
CON 40 UIKP 30 LBDEM 20 LAB 10
EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE
CON 35 LIBDEM 25 UKIP 20 LAB 15 BORLAND 5
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE
CON 38 LAB 27 UKIP 21 LIBDEM 14
ST EDMUNDSBURY - Bardwell
CON 43 UKIP 31 LAB 26
TORRIDGE - Torrington
CON 32 COX 20 UKIP 17 FREELAND 15 LAB 12 GRN 4
WYCOMBE - Hambleden Valley
CON 45 UKIP 25 LAB 30
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 4, 2013 19:05:18 GMT
BOSTON - Fenside
UKIP 44 LAB 24 CON 28 LIBDEM 4
CARLISLE - Yewdale
LAB 52 CON 22 UKIP 21 LIBDEM 3 GRN 2
CHARNWOOD - Loughborough Ashby
LAB 60 CON 26 UKIP 14
CORNWALL - Wadebridge East
RUSH 11 LIBDEM 30 UKIP 25 LAB 14 CON 20
DAVENTRY - Ravensthorpe
CON 50 UKIP 26 LBDEM 14 LAB 10
EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE
CON 34 LIBDEM 26 UKIP 17 LAB 18 BORLAND 5
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE
CON 44 LAB 14 UKIP 32 LIBDEM 10
ST EDMUNDSBURY - Bardwell
CON 65 UKIP 25 LAB 10
TORRIDGE - Torrington
CON 33 COX 10 UKIP 25 FREELAND 18 LAB 9 GRN 5
WYCOMBE - Hambleden Valley
CON 45 UKIP 25 LAB 30
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 4, 2013 23:17:32 GMT
BOSTON - Fenside UKIP 43 LAB 28 CON 24 LIBDEM 5 CARLISLE - Yewdale LAB 60 CON 19 UKIP 15 LD 4 GRN 2 CHARNWOOD - Loughborough Ashby LAB 55 CON 31 UKIP 14 CORNWALL - Wadebridge East RUSH 24 LD 28 CON 22 LAB 15 UKIP 11 DAVENTRY - Ravensthorpe CON 49 UKIP 25 LD 15 LAB 11 EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE CON 47 LD 25 LAB 18 UKIP 14 BORLAND 6 NORTHAMPTONSHIRE CON 45 LAB 17 UKIP 29 LD 9 ST EDMUNDSBURY - Bardwell CON 62 UKIP 30 LAB 8 TORRIDGE - Torrington CON 35 UKIP 23 FREELAND 21 GRN 14 COX 7 WYCOMBE - Hambleden Valley CON 64 UKIP 23 LAB 13 Read more: vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/3125/prediction-competition-september-2013#ixzz2dxwS4G62 |
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Post by greatkingrat on Sept 5, 2013 0:16:13 GMT
BOSTON - UKIP 38, Lab 28, Con 24, LD 10
CARLISLE - Lab 45, Con 25, UKIP 24, LD 3, Grn 3
CHARNWOOD - Lab 56, Con 26, UKIP 18
CORNWALL - LD 28, Ind 23, UKIP 18, Con 17, Lab 14
DAVENTRY - Con 47, UKIP 25, Lab 17, LD 11
EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE - Con 33, LD 26, UKIP 21, Lab 15, Ind 5
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - Con 45, UKIP 34, Lab 14, LD 7
ST EDMUNDSBURY - Con 62, UKIP 24, Lab 14
TORRIDGE - Cox 27, Freeland 25, Con 23, UKIP 19, Grn 6
WYCOMBE - Con 61, UKIP 21, LD 18
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2013 6:53:43 GMT
BOSTON - Fenside
UKIP 53 LAB 24 CON 20 LIBDEM 3
CARLISLE - Yewdale
LAB 42 UKIP 31 CON 20 GRN 4 LIBDEM 3
CHARNWOOD - Loughborough Ashby
LAB 50 UKIP 36 CON 14
CORNWALL - Wadebridge East
UKIP 26 LIBDEM 25 RUSH 24 LAB 15 CON 10
DAVENTRY - Ravensthorpe
CON 39 UKIP 34 LBDEM 14 LAB 13
EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE
LIBDEM 26 UKIP 25 CON 24 LAB 20 BORLAND 5
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE
UKIP 39 CON 38 LAB 16 LIBDEM 7
ST EDMUNDSBURY - Bardwell
CON 45 UKIP 35 LAB 20
TORRIDGE - Torrington
CON 33 COX 10 UKIP 25 FREELAND 18 LAB 9 GRN 5
WYCOMBE - Hambleden Valley
CON 45 UKIP 35 LAB 20
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Post by hempie on Sept 5, 2013 6:57:46 GMT
BOSTON, Fenside UKIP 33, Lab 32, Con 25, LD 10
CARLISLE. Yewdale:Lab 50, Con 28, UKIP 13, LD 5, Grn 4
CHARNWOOD, Loughborough Ashby: Lab 55, Con 25, UKIP 20
CORNWALL, Wadebridge East: LD 31, Con 22, UKIP 20, Lab 14, Ind 13
DAVENTRY, Ravensthorpe: Con 50, UKIP 19, LD 16, Lab 15
EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE, Ely East: Con 32, LD 28, Lab 18, UKIP 12, Ind 10
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE, Middleton Cheney: UKIP 38,Con 35,Lab 15, LD 12
ST EDMUNDSBURY,Bardwell: Con 65, UKIP 30, Lab 5
TORRIDGE, Torrington: Con 27, Cox 23, Freeland 22, UKIP 20, Grn 8
WYCOMBE, Hambledon Valley: - Con 65, UKIP 25, Lab 10
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Post by marksenior on Sept 5, 2013 8:00:11 GMT
Boston UKIP 38 Lab 31 Con 24 LD 7
Carlisle Lab 52 Con 25 UKIP 16 LD 4 Green 3
Charnwood Lab 52 Con 32 UKIP 16
Cornwall LD 30 Ind Rush 26 UKIP 16 Con 15 Lab 13
Daventry Con 50 UKIP 23 LD 16 Lab 11
East Cambs LD 31 Con 30 Lab 18 UKIP 16 Ind 5
Northants Con 36 UKIP 31 Lab 14 LD 9
St Edmundsbury Con 55 UKIP 30 Lab 15
Torridge Con 32 UKIP 26 Cox 18 Freeland 16 Green 8
Wycombe Con 62 UKIP 24 Lab 14
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Sept 5, 2013 8:02:13 GMT
Boston: UKIP 40.5, L 33.3, C 18.7, LD 7.5.
Carlisle: L 50.8, C 27.7, UKIP 15.7, LD 2.9, G 2.9.
Charnwood: L 56.9, C 28.4, UKIP 14.7.
Cornwall: LD 36.1, UKIP 19.4, Ind 17.4, C 15.0, L 12.1.
Daventry: C 49.0, UKIP 25.9, LD 17.9, L 7.2.
East Cambs: LD 32.5, C 30.7, L 17.0, UKIP 13.2, Ind 6.6.
Northants: C 43.5, UKIP 32.3, L 13.4, LD 10.8.
St Edmundsbury: C 52.9, UKIP 38.1, L 9.0.
Torridge: Ind F 39.5, C 29.3, Ind C 14.6, UKIP 13.0, G 3.6.
Wycombe: C 55.5, UKIP 34.3, LD 10.2.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 5, 2013 8:17:31 GMT
Boston: UKIP 38.6; Lab 28.2; Con 23.1; LD 10.1 Carlisle: Lab 48.3; Con 25.2; UKIP 22.0; LD 2.6; Grn 1.9 Charnwood: Lab 59.2; Con 22.3; UKIP 18.5 Cornwall: LD 28.7; INd 23.9; UKIP 18.1; Lab 15.7; Con 13.6 Daventry: Con 52.1; UKIP 21.3; Lab 17.5; LD 9.1 East Cambs: Con 40.1; LD 22.5; Lab 17.2; UKIP 16.8; Ind 3.4 Northants: Con 44.2; UKIP 30.1; Lab 16.1; LD 9.6 St Edmundsbury: Con 63.7; UKIP 28.7; Lab 7.6 Torridge: Con 36.9; UKIP 22.3; Ind F 17.8; Ind C 15.2; Grn 7.8 Wycombe: Con 68.3; UKIP 21.9; Lab 9.8 |
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Post by Philip Davies on Sept 5, 2013 8:19:05 GMT
BOSTON - Fenside Ben COOK (The Labour Party Candidate) 34.8 Dan ELKINGTON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 20.0 Tiggs KEYWOOD-WAINWRIGHT (UK Independence Party) 35.0 Alan TAYLOR (Liberal Democrats) 10.2 CARLISLE - Yewdale Tom DODD (The Labour Party Candidate) 49.7 Christine FINLAYSON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 29.7 Terence JONES (Liberal Democrat) 2.3 Charmian MCCUTCHEON (The Green Party) 2.3 Mike OWEN (UK Independence Party) 16.0 CHARNWOOD - Loughborough Ashby Kirti ASMAL (The Conservative Party Candidate) 30.2 Mary DRAYCOTT (The Labour Party Candidate) 54.8 Andy MCWILLIAM (UKIP) 15.0 CORNWALL - Wadebridge East Rod HARRISON (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 13 Adrian JONES (Labour Party Candidate) 14 Steve KNIGHTLEY (Liberal Democrat) 27 Tony RUSH (Independent) 34 Stephen RUSHWORTH (Conservative Party Candidate) 12 DAVENTRY - Ravensthorpe Bryn ALDRIDGE (The Conservative Party Candidate) 58.7 Neil FARMER (Liberal Democrat) 10.9 Eric MACANNDRAIS (UK Independence Party) 17.0 Sue MYERS (The Labour Party Candidate) 13.4 EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE - Ely East John BORLAND (Independent) 2.0 Lis EVERY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 36.8 Jane FRANCES (The Labour Party Candidate) 17.1 Jeremy TYRRELL (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 11.8 Dian WARMAN (Liberal Democrat) 32.3 NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - Middleton Cheney Scott COLLINS (Liberal Democrat) 10.5 Christopher LEE (The Labour Party Candidate) 15.7 Barry MAHONEY (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 23.6 Ron SAWBRIDGE (The Conservative Party Candidate) 50.2 ST EDMUNDSBURY - Bardwell James LUMLEY (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 28 Thomas STEBBING (The Labour Party Candidate) 10 Paula WADE (The Conservative Party Candidate) 62 TORRIDGE - Torrington David COX (Independent) 20 Adrian FREELAND (Independent) 20 Robin JULIAN (United Kingdom Independence Party) 17 Phil PESTER (The Conservative Party Candidate) 35 Cathrine SIMMONS (Green Party) 8 WYCOMBE - Hambleden Valley Julian GRIGG (Labour Party Candidate) 14.6 Brian MAPLETOFT (UKIP) 15.9 Roger METCALFE (The Conservative Party Candidate) 69.5 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 5, 2013 8:36:20 GMT
Cornwall UA - Wadebridge East Ind 31.9% LD 22.3% UKIP 17.4% Con 15.8% Lab 12.6% Northamptonshire CC - Middleton Cheney Con 43.6% UKIP 29.1% Lab 14.8% LD 12.5% Boston BC - Fenside UKIP 43.9% Lab 27.9% Con 19.4% LD 8.8% Carlisle BC - Yewdale Lab 46.7% Con 23.1% UKIP 22.1% LD 4.5% Grn 3.6% Charnwood BC - Loughborough Ashby Lab 53.9% Con 30.4% UKIP 15.7% Daventry DC - Ravensthorpe Con 52.3% UKIP 23.5% Lab 12.5% LD 11.7% East Cambridgeshire DC - Ely East Con 31.4% LD 25.4% UKIP 21.6% Lab 14.8% Ind 6.8% St Edmundsbury BC - Bardwell Con 56.9% UKIP 34.3% Lab 8.8% Torridge DC - Torrington Con 32.3% UKIP 27.5% Ind F 19.2% Ind C 13.9% Grn 7.1% Wycombe BC - Hambledon Valey Con 61.2% UKIP 29.7% Lab 9.1% |
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Post by greatkingrat on Sept 5, 2013 10:16:11 GMT
WYCOMBE - Con 61, UKIP 21, LD 18 If possible, please change this to WYCOMBE - Con 61, UKIP 21, Lab 18 |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Sept 5, 2013 11:23:11 GMT
Er... Likewise.
Not a good re-entry after a few months away. Left it till the last minute, and then decided to had a nosebleed at 08:55 this morning. Great.
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 5, 2013 17:58:49 GMT
12 entries this week, but oh dear, oh dear.
Dibs, Just Looking and Robert Waller have a non-existent Labour Candidate in Torridge
- they incur 12, 9 and 9 additional faults respectively.
Arthur Figgis and greatkingrat had a non-existent Lib Dem candidate in Wycombe but corrected it later
- greatkingrat incurs 15 additional faults (amended 11.16.11) whilst Arthur Figgis has 20 (amended 12.23.11)
Catholic Left 10 additional faults for adding to 110% in East Cambridgeshire
Mark Senior incurs 10 additional faults for adding to only 90% in Northamptonshire
Arthur Figgis has 45 additional faults for posting 2 minutes late, already penalised for Wycombe
In addition, although Mark Senior originally posted at 09.00.11 (49 seconds within the time allowed) he then edited his posting at 09.14.25. As I have no record of what the amendments were he will have to receive a further 50 additional faults for a late entry unless evidence can be provided as to what was edited.
There are 6 unanimous predictions:
UKIP gain Boston, Fenland, Labour hold Carlisle, Yewdale and Charnwood, Loughborough Ashby, Conservative hold Daventry, Ravensthorpe, St Edmunsbury, Bardwell and Wycombe, Hambledon Valley
Cornwall, Wadebridge East: 8 Lib Dem gains from Independent, Dibs,Pete Whitehead & PhilDav Independent hold, Just Looking UKIP gain
East Cambridgeshire, Ely East: 8 Conservative holds, Andrew Teale, Arthur Figgis, Just Looking & Mark Senior Lib Dem gain
Northamptonshire, Middleton Cheney: 10 Conservative holds, hempie & Just Looking UKIP gain
Torridge, Torrington: 10 Conservative gains from Lib Dems, Arthur Figgis Ind F gain, greatkingrat Ind C gain
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 5, 2013 18:05:36 GMT
In addition, although Mark Senior originally posted at 09.00.11 (49 seconds within the time allowed) he then edited his posting at 09.14.25. As I have no record of what the amendments were he will have to receive a further 50 additional faults for a late entry unless evidence can be provided as to what was edited. I don't know if you'll take this as evidence but I remember that the post originally had predictions for the top four or five contests, and then the lower contests were added in the later edit. |
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Post by marksenior on Sept 5, 2013 18:12:40 GMT
I think 50 faults is a little harsh . I was up late today so my 1st post had just the first 2 forecasts . There were then 2 more forecasts every 3 minutes or so until the final ones at 09:14
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Post by andrewteale on Sept 5, 2013 18:27:15 GMT
WADEBRIDGE EAST: LD 26 C 21 Ind 19 UKIP 19 Lab 15 BARDWELL: C 65 UKIP 28 Lab 7 ELY EAST: LD 36 C 25 Lab 18 UKIP 14 Ind 7 FENSIDE: UKIP 49 Lab 29 C 16 LD 6 HAMBLEDEN VALLEY: C 75 UKIP 20 Lab 5 LOUGHBOROUGH ASHBY: Lab 60 C 32 UKIP 8 MIDDLETON CHENEY: C 45 UKIP 35 LD 12 Lab 8 RAVENSTHORPE: C 54 UKIP 27 Lab 10 LD 9 TORRINGTON: C 30 Cox 26 Freeland 20 UKIP 17 Grn 7 YEWDALE: Lab 55 C 22 UKIP 17 LD 3 Grn 3 |
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 5, 2013 21:26:05 GMT
I think 50 faults is a little harsh . I was up late today so my 1st post had just the first 2 forecasts . There were then 2 more forecasts every 3 minutes or so until the final ones at 09:14 Will accept two on time, Boston & Carlise, and 8 late. So penalty is 40 faults |
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Post by marksenior on Sept 5, 2013 21:56:12 GMT
Fair enough
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