Prediction competition for September 2013

[Tony Otim]

Sept 16, 2013 14:15:05 GMT Tony Otim said:

Almost forgot this one:

Woking:
Lab 35.2
Con 27.2
LD 23.1
UKIP 14.5

[Pete Whitehead]

I had forgotten. I was going to have an early night last night and just checked this site before I went to see if there were any interesting new posts and saw Robert's prediction. If he'd posted five minutes later I'd have blown it (although I suppose I would have seen all the predictions here this morning and would have been able to get it together before 9)

[middleenglander]

10 entries for Woking with nothing from Dibs and Just Looking.

Andrew Teale has; Con 37, Lab 36, LD 17, UKIP 10

Arthur Figgis, CatholicLeft, Mark Senior, Pete Whitehead, PhilDav & tonyotim all go for Labour gain from Lib Dem
Andrew Teale, greatkingrat & Robert Waller go for a Conservative gain from Lib Dem
hempie has a Lib Dem hold

[middleenglander]

Woking, Maybury & Shearwater
Andrew Teale 15.5 faults, greatkingrat 29.7, Pete Whitehead 22.9+10 Robert Waller 37.0, Arthur Figgis 30.3+10, tonyotim 33.8+10, CatholicLeft & Mark Senior 35.7+10, PhilDav 44.4+10, hempie 51.7+10

with now

421.3 greatkingrat
434.8 tonyotim
441.6 PhilDav

492.4 Pete Whitehead
496.0 Andrew Teale
498.8 Catholic Left

514.8 hempie
517.7 Mark Senior
524.8 Robert Waller
564.3 Arthur Figgis

4 more on Thursday

[Pete Whitehead]

Congratulations to Andrew and Gkr. With hindsight the Conservative gain here looks like it was almost inevitable given the candidates and what is the main driver for voting behaviour in this ward. I was minded to go for a narrow Conservative gain myself but made the mistake of looking at the county council election result when Labour must have 'won' very easily in this ward. Of course a totally different pattern of candidates means it really wasn't any use as a predictor

[Tony Otim]

Yeah - I seriously thought about the Conservative gain too, but decided against. Ah well.

Congratulations to Andrew.

[The Bishop]

Some of the predictions of the LibDem result here were almost bafflingly optimistic given how this contest came about!

[Deleted]

CANTERBURY - Seasalter

Con 38.9%
UKIP 34.1%
Lab 17.4%
LD 6.5%
Green 3.1%

DUDLEY - Coseley East

Lab 46.4%
UKIP 23.2%
Con 16.4%
BNP 7.1%
Green 4.7%
NF 2.2%

EAST HAMPSHIRE - Four Marks and Medstead

Con 61.4%
UKIP 25.5%
Lab 8.8%
Green 4.3%

OXFORD - North

Lab 36.9%
LD 25.1%
Green 21.3%
Con 16.7%

[Robert Waller]

CANTERBURY - Seasalter

Con 41%
UKIP 27%
Lab 21%
LD 6%
Green 5%

DUDLEY - Coseley East

Lab 56%
UKIP 15%
Con 19%
BNP 5%
Green 2%
NF 3%

EAST HAMPSHIRE - Four Marks and Medstead

Con 63.5%
UKIP 22.5%
Lab 9%
Green 5%

OXFORD - North

Lab 29%
LD 31%
Green 22%
Con 18%

[greatkingrat]

CANTERBURY - Con 40, UKIP 30, Lab 22, LD 5, Grn 3
DUDLEY - Lab 51, Con 19, UKIP 17, BNP 7, Grn 3, NF 3
EAST HAMPSHIRE - Con 56, UKIP 20, LD 16, Lab 8
OXFORD - Lab 34, Grn 24, LD 22, Con 20

[Pete Whitehead]

Sept 18, 2013 22:39:27 GMT greatkingrat said:

CANTERBURY - Con 40, UKIP 30, Lab 22, LD 5, Grn 3
DUDLEY - Lab 51, Con 19, UKIP 17, BNP 7, Grn 3, NF 3
EAST HAMPSHIRE - Con 56, UKIP 20, LD 16, Lab 8
OXFORD - Lab 34, Grn 24, LD 22, Con 20

[hempie]

Canterbury, Seasalter: Con 35,UKIP 28, Lab 22, LD 10, Green 5
Dudley, Coseley East: Lab 51, UKIP 23, Con 15, Green 4, BNP 4, NF 3
East Hampshire, Four Marks & Medstead: Con 64, UKIP 20, Lab 13, Green 3
Oxford, North: Lab 32, LD 30, Green 23, Con 15

[marksenior]

Canterbury Con 40 UKIP 28 Lab 23 LD 5 Green 4
Dudley Lab 53 UKIP 21 Con 13 Green 6 BNP 5 NF 2
East Hants Con 60 UKIP 22 Lab 14 Green 4
Oxford Lab 32 LD 29 Green 22 Con 17

[Arthur Figgis]

Canterbury: UKIP 43.2, C 32.9, L 15.6, LD 5.4, G 2.9.
Dudley: L 45.9, UKIP 26.8, C 16.4, NF 5.0, BNP 3.1, G 2.8.
East Hants: C 54.2, UKIP 29.6, L 8.6, G 7.6.
Oxford: L 32.2, LD 27.9, G 23.2, C 16.7.

[greatkingrat]

Sept 18, 2013 22:39:27 GMT greatkingrat said:

EAST HAMPSHIRE - Con 56, UKIP 20, LD 16, Lab 8

Please change to
EAST HAMPSHIRE - Con 58, UKIP 22, Lab 15, Grn 5

At least it is only 5 points this time

[Pete Whitehead]

Sept 18, 2013 20:39:42 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Dudley MBC - Coseley East

Lab   42.5%
UKIP 30.3%
Con  17.1%
BNP   6.6%
Grn    1.8%
NF     1.7%


Canterbury BC - Seasalter

UKIP 38.2%
Con  35.2%
Lab   17.9%
LD      5.4%
Grn    3.3%


East Hampshire DC - Four Marks & Medstead

Con  56.5%
UKIP 27.7%
Lab    9.5%
Grn    6.3%


Oxford BC - North

Lab   30.9%
LD    27.5%
Grn   22.8%
Con  18.8%

[Philip Davies]

Sept 18, 2013 22:50:06 GMT Philip Davies said:

CANTERBURY - Seasalter

Mike BULL (UKIP) 24.8
Rachel GOODWIN (Labour Party Candidate) 22.4
Keith HOOKER (Liberal Democrat) 6.3
Russell PAGE (Green Party) 2.5
Annette STEIN (The Conservative Party Candidate) 44.0


DUDLEY - Coseley East

Clem BAUGH (Labour Party Candidate) 52
Becky BLATCHFORD (The Green Party Candidate) 2
Star ETHERIDGE (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 23
Ken GRIFFITHS (British National Party) 5
Kevin INMAN (National Front) 2
Julian RYDER (The Conservative Party Candidate) 16


EAST HAMPSHIRE - Four Marks and Medstead

Ruth DUFFIN (UKIP) 22
Marjorie POOLEY (Green Party) 5
Ingrid THOMAS (Conservative Party Candidate) 60
Janice TREACHER (Labour Party Candidate) 13


OXFORD - North

Tim BEARDER (Liberal Democrat) 23
Sushila DHALL (Green Party) 27
Louise UPTON (The Labour Party Candidate) 34
John WALSH (The Conservative Party Candidate) 16

[Tony Otim]

Sept 16, 2013 15:11:33 GMT Tony Otim said:

Canterbury:
Con 40.8
UKIP 30.8
Lab 21.2
LD 4.8
Grn 2.4

Dudley:
Lab 52.3
UKIP 19.2
Con 18.8
BNP 6.4
NF 2.2
Grn 1.1

East Hants:
Con 58.9
LD 24.2
Lab 9.4
Grn 7.5

Oxford:
Lab 34.2
Grn 29.1
LD 19.2
Con 17.5

[Pimpernal]

Interesting variances in the Seasalter UKIP showing...

[independentukip]

tonyotim - I fear East Hants is going to be quite costly for you!