Prediction competition for September 2013

[Pimpernal]

Only one entrant betting on a UKIP gain in Sevenoaks then...

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Not that I'm unramping or anything but some of the predictions for Labour in Crockenhill seem to be very optimistic.

[Deleted]

Extremely optimisitic, we need to see how much of the vote is willing to stay with Labour after is followed the "name". I am by nature optimistic.

[Philip Davies]

I ignored all the recent district results in that ward and looked at the next door ones and the county council seat result from May.

[middleenglander]

11 entries this week with Dibs rejoining us but still no Just Looking. Dibs gets 5 additional faults for having a Hunter candidate who is also the Labour candidate in Blackpool but no Independent Maher, Andrew Teale gets 5 additional faults for a late amendment in Sevenoaks whilst tonyotim gets 0.2 additional faults for adding to 100.2% in Mid Devon.

7 of the predictions are unanimous
- Labour holds in Barnsley, Cherwell and Forest of Dean, Coleford East
- Conservative holds in Mid Devon, Tendring, West Sussex and Forest of Dean, Redmarley

Blackpool: 10 Labour holds, Mark Senior Conservative gain
Mole Valley: 9 Lib Dem hols, Dibs & Pete Whitehead Conservative gain
Sevenoaks: 6 Conservative gains, Arthur Figgis, CatholicLeft, Dibs & hempie Labour hold, Pete Whitehead UKIP gain

[Philip Davies]

Four results to come and four predictors left in the race.

[Philip Davies]

Sept 26, 2013 15:07:32 GMT Philip Davies said:

I ignored all the recent district results in that ward and looked at the next door ones and the county council seat result from May.

Obviously this didn't work out very well. At least my Mole Valley and Blackpool "wins" made up for it.

[middleenglander]

Sept 26, 2013 23:33:36 GMT Philip Davies said:

Four results to come and four predictors left in the race.

With 4 results to come, for the month (and subject to verification)
tonyotim 661.0 faults, greatkingrat 670.9, Pete Whitehead 672.8, PhilDav 678.9, CatholicLeft 717.5 bar

[Pete Whitehead]

Kicking myself over Mole Valley. I'm not really sure what I was thinking there

[Pete Whitehead]

Well I've really f'cked up in the West Country so I'm not in the running at all now - about 50 faults behind the other three but I can't really call it between the others. Looks like Tony to me but with barely 3 faults separating him from Great king rat in 3rd and I wouldn't trust my rather hurried calculations

[middleenglander]

Barnsley, Wombwell
Pete Whitehead 7.6 faults, CatholicLeft 9.6, PhilDav 10.4, Mark Senior 10.9, Arthur Figgis 12.7, Robert Waller 14.3, tonyotim 15.6, Andrew Teale 17.7, greatkingrat 19.2, hempie 20.0, Dibs 22.9

Blackpool, Highfields
PhilDav 14.5 faults,Pete Whitehead 24.1, CatholicLeft & greatkingrat 24.5, Dibs 21.5+5, Andrew Teale 26.5, Robert Waller 27.0, tonyotim 27.1, Arthur Figgis 29.5, hempie 38.8, Mark Senior 30.5+10

Cherwell, Banbury Ruscote
Andrew Teale 2.2 faults, CatholicLeft & Mark Senior 7.8, greatkingrat 9.8, hempie & Robert Waller 11.8, Pete Whitehead 13.6, tonyotim 15.0, Dibs 17.8, PhilDav 19.9, Arthur Figgis 21.8

Forest of Dean, Coleford East
tonyotim 18.6 faults, greatkingrat 22.1, PhilDav 24.1, Arthur Figgis 29.1, Andrew Teale 30.5, hempie 33.6, CatholicLeft 34.6, Robert Waller 35.1, Mark Senior 36.1, Pete Whitehead 37.2, Dibs 49.6

Forest of Dean, Redmarley
PhilDav 5.0 faults, Robert Waller 11.0, tonyotim 11.4, Andrew Teale 13.1, greatkingrat 15.9, Mark Senior 21.0, hempie 23.0, Arthur Figgis 25.6, CatholicLeft 35.0, Pete Whitehead 36.0, Dibs 41.0

Mid Devon, Way
Phildav 26.0, greatkingrat 36.0, Mark Senior 42.0, CatholicLeft 43.9, tonyotim 45.6+0.2, Pete Whitehead 46.7, Arthur Figgis 51.6, Dibs & Robert Waller 51.9, Andrew Teale 56.0, hempie 56.4

Mole Valley, Mickleham, Westhumble & Pixham
PhilDav 11.4 faults, Andrew Teale 11.9, tonyotim 12.6, greatkingrat 17.3, Arthur Figgis 19.2, hempie 19.9, Catholic Left 25.3, Mark Senior 27.3, Robert Waller 29.3, Pete Whitehead 30.9+10, Dibs 51.3+10

Sevenoaks, Crockenhill & Well Hill
Pete Whitehead 19.8, Dibs 21.9+10, Robert Waller 22.0+10, CatholicLeft 23.4+10, hempie 29.4+10, tonyotim 33.8+10, Andrew Teale 34.0+5+10, Mark Senior 41.6+10, Arthur Figgis 43.1+10, greatkingrat 56.0+10, PhilDav 59.6+10

Tendring, St James
Arthur Figgis 13.9 faults, tonyotim 15.9, greatkingrat 17.7, Andrew Teale & hempie 23.6, PhilDav 25.5, Pete Whitehead 27.7, Mark Senior 29.6, Robert Waller 33.7, CatholicLeft 39.6, Dibs 43.6

West Sussex, Storrington
Pete Whitehead 3.9 faults, greatkingrat 6.2, Mark Senior 8.4, tonyotim 10.0, CatholicLeft 12.4, hempie 15.9, Andrew Teale 16.2, PhilDav 18.4, Arthur Figgis 24.1, Dibs & Robert Waller 28.4

and for the week:
tonyotim 216.0 faults, PhilDav 224.7, greatkingrat 234.8, Andrew Teale 246.7, Pete Whitehead 257.4, CatholicLeft 266.1, Robert Waller 274.7, Mark Senior 275.1, Arthur Figgis 280.6, hempie 282.3, Dibs 374.9

and for the month of September:

751.6 tonyotim
753.7 PhilDav
754.7 greatkingrat

806.3 Pete Whitehead
838.7 CatholicLeft
841.6 Andrew Teale

876.5 Mark Senior
877.2 hempie
899.2 Robert Waller

907.5 Arthur Figgis
1459.5 Dibs

Objections please by 5.00 pm Saturday.
New thread for October competition, if you want one.

[marksenior]

Well done to the three podium finishers , very very close . Will try nect month not to sabotage my own attempts by incurring so many penalty points in the first week .

[Robert Waller]

Yes, the close finish shows just why I'm sure we all want another contest next month and for the months to come! Many thanks to all who put in so much time organising and taking part.

Congrats to all those who did so well. My own performance is a stark contrast to The Election Game, where I have ( very temporarily) hit the heights of 'world' no.1.

I may not be able to compete here in October due to the disruptions of a planned house move (from Vince Cable's seat to Dominic Raab's, and also to the Elmbridge fiefdom of my very old friend John O, for those who know PB.com). But I still fully support this prediction competition and will be back!

[Pete Whitehead]

Congratulations to Tony and to the other two. Its amazing how close these contests often end up between the first two or three

[Tony Otim]

Thanks. And thanks to all, especially greatkingrat and Phil for a very close and enjoyable contest.

[Philip Davies]

Disappointed to finish second again, but well done to Tonyotim for a deserved victory. With apologies to Del Boy...this time next month I'll be the champion!