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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 19, 2013 22:27:20 GMT
CANTERBURY Seasalter
UKIP gain from C
UKIP 644
C 522
Lab 307
L Dem 147
GP 54
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
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Post by andrea on Sept 19, 2013 22:29:05 GMT
Oxford North
Lab 367 Lib Dem 330 Green Party 236 Con 100
Dudley
Lab 1053
UKIP 478
Con 190
BNP 120
Green 33
NF 16
Spoilt 6
Not particularly close afterall
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 19, 2013 22:30:09 GMT
OXFORD North
Lab gain from L Dem
Louise UPTON (The Labour Party Candidate) 367 (35.5%)
Tim BEARDER (Liberal Democrat) 330 (31.9%)
Sushila DHALL (Green Party) 236 (22.8%)
John WALSH (The Conservative Party Candidate) 100 (9.7%)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 19, 2013 22:39:38 GMT
Bill Etheridge @milroy666 8m
Labour 55.54%
UKIP 25.21%
Conservatives 10.02%
Bnp 6.33%
Greens 1.74%
National front 0.84%
Coseley by election
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 19, 2013 22:40:15 GMT
Bill Etheridge @milroy666 8m Labour 55.54% UKIP 25.21% Not as close as all that, then. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 19, 2013 23:03:57 GMT
EAST HAMPSHIRE Four Marks and Medstead
Conservative hold
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 19, 2013 23:04:43 GMT
I see mention of a UKIP gain on Malvern town council tonight. Did you get that one Listener?
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 19, 2013 23:49:54 GMT
I see mention of a UKIP gain on Malvern town council tonight. Did you get that one Listener? 2 wards contested. Chase straight fight between UKIP and "Keep Politics out of Town Council" and in Link straight fight between UKIP and Labour. |
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873 
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Post by Pimpernal on Sept 20, 2013 5:09:16 GMT
CANTERBURY Seasalter UKIP gain from C UKIP 644 C 522 Lab 307 L Dem 147 GP 54 OK, I was running this campaign so expected us to do quite well... I's expected 40% to be honest... Surprising resilience of the LD vote - honestly didn't expect that ... We saw them out working and even delivering targeted letters a couple of days before the poll, but to improve their score in what was a squeeze byelection is pretty impressive. Tories had worked this hard too - as did Labour, but Labour's election strategy seemed a bit all over the place... they were canvassing non-postal voters on the day the postal votes hit the doormats for instance! Kent fast becoming UKIP's stronghold  |
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Post by Devonian on Sept 20, 2013 6:37:23 GMT
Four Marks and Medstead
Ruth Duffin, UKIP - 348 votes 27%
Marjorie Pooley, Green Party - 73 votes 5.7%
Ingrid Thomas, Conservative Party - 749 votes 58.1%
Janice Treacher, Labour Party - 119 votes 9.2%
The turn-out was 25.86%
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Post by froome on Sept 20, 2013 6:38:27 GMT
Many thanks for all the replies to my questions last night.
From the rules that have been quoted, if I was that Hemsworth councillor and had wanted to stay on, I would have challenged the calling of that by-election.
I'm not surprised at Labour holding the Oxford seat, but am surprised at how well the Lib Dems did there. I know that we fancied our chances of taking that seat, and Sushila would have made a good councillor. Does anyone know more about what brought out the swing to the Lib Dems? I would assume that the lack of students affected our chances, but have never really understood Oxford politics.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2013 7:14:41 GMT
surprised and pleased by the result in Dudley. It is the kind of area that UKIP should be looking to pick off Labour voters and yet it appears very few despite an high profile candidate backed by her high profile Dad.
Again this is confirmation for what I have been saying the top line polling figures betray what is happening in a lot of areas that contain marginals like this one where we are doing well and well enough to win a majority in 2015.
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tim13
Non-Aligned
Posts: 71
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Post by tim13 on Sept 20, 2013 7:15:26 GMT
Tristram - Labour didn't hold in Oxford, they gained from Lib Dem. I am sure the differences in swing between years (ie 2011 or 2012 to this year) in Lib Dem vote, is largely down to the amount of work that can be mobilised, and if there is residual enthusiasm and campaigning ability. You will note that almost all Lib Dem percentages are down from previous percentages (2010 and before). It may have been that here, as there was an actual defence of a seat, rather than an attempt to take a seat from another party, that the motivation was there to try harder. In the Seasalter seat, you can see that local activists wanted to try to staunch the bleeding (ME's analysis showed that votes had been leeching away over the years) and could mobilise help. Interesting to see local confirmation?
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 20, 2013 7:42:44 GMT
Woking, Maybury & Shearwater - Conservative gain from Lib Dem | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | since 2008 | | Conservative | 1,057 | 44.1% | +22.6% | +13.0% | +1.1% | +9.1% | | Labour | 833 | 34.8% | +1.1% | +5.0% | +23.7% | +23.3% | | UKIP | 255 | 10.6% | -0.2% | -2.1% | +4.2% | +6.2% | | Lib Dems | 252 | 10.5% | -23.6% | -15.9% | -29.0% | -38.6% | | Total votes | 2,397 |
| -793 | -1,013 | -2,338 | -760 |
Swing Lib Dem to Conservative 23% since 2012, 14½% since 2011, 15% since 2010 and 24% since 2008 - swing Labour to Conservative ~11% since 2012, 4% since 2011 but Conservative to Labour 11% since 2010 and 7% since 2008 Canterbury, Seasalter - UKIP gain from Conservative | Party | 2013 B2 votes | 2013 B2 share | since 2013 B1 | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | UKIP | 644 | 38.5% | +4.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 522 | 31.2% | -7.2% | -28.7% | -29.7% | -30.4% | -33.0% | | Labour | 307 | 18.3% | -2.4% | -9.2% | -9.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | | Lib Dems | 147 | 8.8% | +4.3% | -3.8% | -2.8% | -11.2% | -8.6% | | Green | 54 | 3.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | TUSAC |
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| -2.0% |
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| | Total votes | 1,674 |
| -380 | -1,133 | -968 | -792 | -647 |
Swing Conservative to UKIP 5.6% since May 2013 by-election, otherwise not meaningful Dudley, Coseley East -| Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | since 2008 | | Labour | 1,053 | 55.7% | +1.3% | +3.3% | +19.3% | +19.7% | | UKIP | 478 | 25.3% | +8.2% | +7.1% | +15.0% | from nowhere | | Conservative | 190 | 10.1% | -8.6% | -19.2% | -18.0% | -19.6% | | BNP | 120 | 6.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -7.6% | -20.7% | | Green | 33 | 1.7% | -1.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | National Front | 16 | 0.8% | -6.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dems |
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| -11.3% | -7.3% | | Total votes | 1,890 |
| -622 | -1,361 | -3,760 | -1,568 |
Swing Labour to UKIP ~3½% since 2012, 2% since 2011 but 2% UKIP to Labour East Hampshire, Four Marks & Medstead - Conservative hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Conservative | 749 | 58.1% | -7.4% | -7.8% | -7.3% | -7.2% | | UKIP | 348 | 27.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 119 | 9.2% | +0.6% | +1.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 73 | 5.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dems |
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| -25.8% | -26.2% | -34.6% | -34.7% | | Total votes | 1,289 |
| -1,350 | -1,315 | -696 | -691 |
Swing not meaningful Oxford, North - Labour gain from Lib Dem | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2010 | since 2008 | | Labour | 367 | 34.7% | +1.3% | +18.0% | +19.9% | | Lib Dem | 330 | 31.2% | +8.3% | -13.4% | -6.0% | | Green | 262 | 24.7% | -0.2% | +10.6% | +7.0% | | Conservative | 100 | 9.4% | -9.4% | -15.1% | -20.9% | | Total votes | 1,059 |
| -486 | -1,861 | -187 |
Swing Labour to Lib Dem 3½% since 2012 but Lib Dem to Labour ~16% since 2010 and 13% since 2008
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Post by jonnymorris on Sept 20, 2013 7:42:46 GMT
Has there ever been a better Libdem first name/surname combination than Tim Bearder?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 20, 2013 8:12:44 GMT
I hope he marries someone called Emma Sandalls and they decide to hyphenate their surnames.
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Post by listener on Sept 20, 2013 9:13:21 GMT
Middle Englander - Can you show the changes of vote share in Seasalter since the last by-election on 2 May, when Conservatives held their seat with a majority of 83 over UKIP ?
UKIP seem to be storming ahead in the seaside towns of Kent - with the obvious exception of Swale West county division which is not on the seaside! The new Swale West member has been distinguishing himself on the Kent County Council webcam meetings.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 20, 2013 9:38:11 GMT
They are given in his table above.
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 20, 2013 9:59:51 GMT
I see mention of a UKIP gain on Malvern town council tonight. Did you get that one Listener? 2 wards contested. Chase straight fight between UKIP and "Keep Politics out of Town Council" and in Link straight fight between UKIP and Labour. Chase: Keep Politics out of Town Council 560 568 elected, UKIP 208 Link: UKIP 372 elected, Labour 257 |
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Post by listener on Sept 20, 2013 10:50:33 GMT
Middle Englander - apologies - I have now seen your interesting figures on Seasalter.
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