jdc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 96 
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Post by jdc on Sept 16, 2013 19:04:55 GMT
Oxford N clearly between Labour and Greens. I would punt at something like: Lab 49.0 Grn 26.4 Con 13.1 LD 11.5 That would be a remarkable result for a seat which the Lib Dems held comfortably with the Tories in second place in 2010. Labour took the seat narrowly from the Lib Dems in 2012, and the Lib Dems came back to take the most closely equivalent division in this year's county elections - I think this is probably the closest Oxford has to a 4-way marginal, though the Tory vote will probably suffer as against 2010 from not being on General Election day. Greens could be buoyed up by the Port Meadow planning saga, although it didn't do them as much good as they might have hoped this May. If I had to guess, I'd go Labour 30, Lib Dem 28, Green 27, Tory 15 - but anything could happen. |
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Post by marksenior on Sept 16, 2013 20:31:56 GMT
Pretty much agree with the last post , it will be a three way contest between Lab/LD/Green , very difficult to call as it will be down to the campaign . The LD candidate Tim Bearder may have some local recognition as a former presenter on BBC Radio Oxford
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 16, 2013 22:51:18 GMT
It's a ward which looks very Tory but is full of left wing academics!
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 17, 2013 12:18:53 GMT
At county level, how much is in University Parks and how much in St Margaret's. Area wise it looks like there's more in University Parks, but from the posts above do I take it the population splits more into St Margarets? The LDs narrowly held St Margarets this year, but absolutely bombed in UNiversity Parks.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 17, 2013 22:16:09 GMT
While we're waiting, here's a message from a Woking Lib Dem to a political opponent:  |
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Post by marksenior on Sept 17, 2013 22:32:58 GMT
Woking council are not expecting the result till perhaps 1am
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 17, 2013 22:34:43 GMT
Reports on Twitter of queues outside polling stations, and all counting staff using gloves to avoid disturbing any fingerprints on ballot papers (not heard of that one before).
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 17, 2013 23:37:26 GMT
WOKING Maybury and Sheerwater
C gain from L Dem
Rashid Mohammed (C) 1,057
Stephen William Tudhope (Lab) 833
Neil James Willetts (UKIP) 255
Norman Grenville Johns (L Dem) 252
Electorate 7,307
Valid votes 2,397
Turnout 32.9%
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Post by greatkingrat on Sept 17, 2013 23:41:44 GMT
Con 1057 (44.1%)
Lab 833 (34.8%)
UKIP 255 (10.6%)
LD 252 (10.5%)
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 17, 2013 23:46:15 GMT
C 44.1% (+22.6)
Lab 34.8% (+1.1)
UKIP 10.6% (-0.2)
L Dem 10.5% (-23.6)
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 18, 2013 0:01:10 GMT
Woking, Maybury & Shearwater - Conservative gain from Lib Dem | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | since 2008 | | Conservative | 1,057 | 44.1% | +22.6% | +13.0% | +1.1% | +9.1% | | Labour | 833 | 34.8% | +1.1% | +5.0% | +23.7% | +23.3% | | UKIP | 255 | 10.6% | -0.2% | -2.1% | +4.2% | +6.2% | | Lib Dems | 252 | 10.5% | -23.6% | -15.9% | -29.0% | -38.6% | | Total votes | 2,397 |
| -793 | -1,013 | -2,338 | -760 |
Swing Lib Dem to Conservative 23% since 2012, 14½% since 2011, 15% since 2010 and 24% since 2008 - swing Labour to Conservative ~11% since 2012, 4% since 2011 but Conservative to Labour 11% since 2010 and 7% since 2008
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,774
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Post by J.G.Harston on Sept 18, 2013 0:20:45 GMT
WOKING Maybury and Sheerwater C gain from L Dem Rashid Mohammed (C) 1,057 Stephen William Tudhope (Lab) 833 Neil James Willetts (UKIP) 255 Norman Grenville Johns (L Dem) 252 Is this the one where the Labour candidate lost by 10 votes to the LibDem candidate, appealed the election, and had it overturned and re-run, all so the Conservative could win? |
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Post by independentukip on Sept 18, 2013 1:21:56 GMT
WOKING Maybury and Sheerwater C gain from L Dem Rashid Mohammed (C) 1,057 Stephen William Tudhope (Lab) 833 Neil James Willetts (UKIP) 255 Norman Grenville Johns (L Dem) 252 Is this the one where the Labour candidate lost by 10 votes to the LibDem candidate, appealed the election, and had it overturned and re-run, all so the Conservative could win? Sounds about right. I'm sure the Labour supporting members of the forum can explain how their candidate didn't win when they've come so close before. Was it racism or relgious bigotry that did it for Labour here? Or both? |
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Post by marksenior on Sept 18, 2013 8:34:44 GMT
Is this the one where the Labour candidate lost by 10 votes to the LibDem candidate, appealed the election, and had it overturned and re-run, all so the Conservative could win? Sounds about right. I'm sure the Labour supporting members of the forum can explain how their candidate didn't win when they've come so close before. Was it racism or relgious bigotry that did it for Labour here? Or both? It is an Asian dominated ward and the Conservatives fielded the only Asian candidate . This is neither racism nor religious bigotry but a simple fact of political life in such wards . |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 18, 2013 8:41:02 GMT
Or as someone wrote recently: "while, politically, the politicians divide into the national political parties, their allegiances may have little to do with the ideas and policies of the national parties but are merely externalisations of intra-community divisions for which the labels 'Conservative', 'Labour' and 'Liberal Democrat' will serve as well as any other".
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 18, 2013 10:10:18 GMT
Yes, I did unfortunately think a Tory win was distinctly possible when I saw the names of the candidates  That doesn't mean Labour were wrong to force this matter, though. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Sept 18, 2013 10:59:10 GMT
Does anyone know why the Labour candidate who challenged the original election didn't stand again?
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Post by paulw on Sept 18, 2013 15:49:40 GMT
There's more information on the Woking District Council page of this site. Here is the Executive Summary of the Election Court's judgment www.wokinglabour.org/docs/Woking_Electoral_Fraud_Case.pdfInteresting that the Returning Officer said he would like the power to restrict postal voting in individual wards where fraud is suspected. The situation described in Para 76 of the Summary may be a fact of life at present but it is one that behoves all parties to try and overcome. |
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jdc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 96
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Post by jdc on Sept 18, 2013 16:51:38 GMT
At county level, how much is in University Parks and how much in St Margaret's. Area wise it looks like there's more in University Parks, but from the posts above do I take it the population splits more into St Margarets? The LDs narrowly held St Margarets this year, but absolutely bombed in UNiversity Parks. I have to admit I'm not absolutely sure, but since the students are still on holiday the issue is surely almost completely irrelevant for tomorrow's by-election... |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 19, 2013 9:38:20 GMT
OXFORD - North (Liberal Democrat resigned)Tim BEARDER (Liberal Democrat) Is he by any chance related to Catherine Bearder, Lib Dem MEP? |
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