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Post by marksenior on Aug 2, 2013 14:34:55 GMT
Must confess that I thought the Lib Dems would do a little better around the 6-8% mark . They achieved decent %s in the 3 wards they contested in May . A well known local candidate is clearly a must as the wild variation in the Conservative vote in recent elections here shows .
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 2, 2013 15:18:33 GMT
I think that Albert Owen will probably be safe enough given that it will be a battle for power at Westminster in what may well be a closely fought General Election. I think that Tal Michael was seen as an outsider and that matters on the Island. I am surprised Labour failed to play this better but the PC candidate was well known and popular.
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
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Post by Pimpernal on Aug 3, 2013 6:34:58 GMT
Big win for Plaid Cymru. Highest ever share in Assembly election on the island. Three times the vote of Labour in 2nd place. Of the rest only UKIP have anything to be happy about, I guess Well we seem to be really chuffed given the twitter and facebook hurrah's, but Soc Lab should be happy about beating the Lib dems! |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 3, 2013 20:05:08 GMT
11,219 people voted for Megan Lloyd George in 1951. I wonder how many of those people (a) are still alive, (b) still live in Ynys Mon, and (c) still voted Lib Dem.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2013 22:39:49 GMT
You would have to be at least 83 years old to be 21 in 1951.The proportion of the population over 83 is roughly 3.2%, as a proportion above the current voting age roughly 4%
4% of 309 would give us 12.
Of course, the liberals tend to do rather poorly amongst elderly voters. At a rough guess they may only get half their average vote in a 83+ year old category. That would reduce the figure to 6.
Elderly voters do have higher turnouts, but I would imagine that the turnout starts decreasing again with extreme age, so will not apply a correction factor for likelihood to vote.
How many of those that would have stayed in Ynys Mon over 60 years AND voted liberal as well in 1951. -- Hard to guess but possibly nobody, certainly no more than 1 or 2.
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Post by johnloony on Aug 4, 2013 2:35:09 GMT
You would have to be at least 83 years old to be 21 in 1951.The proportion of the population over 83 is roughly 3.2%, as a proportion above the current voting age roughly 4% 4% of 309 would give us 12. Of course, the liberals tend to do rather poorly amongst elderly voters. At a rough guess they may only get half their average vote in a 83+ year old category. That would reduce the figure to 6. Elderly voters do have higher turnouts, but I would imagine that the turnout starts decreasing again with extreme age, so will not apply a correction factor for likelihood to vote. How many of those that would have stayed in Ynys Mon over 60 years AND voted liberal as well in 1951. -- Hard to guess but possibly nobody, certainly no more than 1 or 2. You seem to have done the calculation backwards, starting from the 309 people who voted Lib Dem in 2013. If one starts with the 11,219 from 1951, it may be that the survivors from that group are the core of those who stayed loyal to voting Lib Dem. So, 4% of 11,219 is 448. Those still living in Ynys Mon is (perhaps) 100. Turnout of those = 30 ish. Still voting Lib Dem might be as much as 10 or 15. Ish. But anyway. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2013 11:24:33 GMT
You would have to be at least 83 years old to be 21 in 1951.The proportion of the population over 83 is roughly 3.2%, as a proportion above the current voting age roughly 4% 4% of 309 would give us 12. Of course, the liberals tend to do rather poorly amongst elderly voters. At a rough guess they may only get half their average vote in a 83+ year old category. That would reduce the figure to 6. Elderly voters do have higher turnouts, but I would imagine that the turnout starts decreasing again with extreme age, so will not apply a correction factor for likelihood to vote. How many of those that would have stayed in Ynys Mon over 60 years AND voted liberal as well in 1951. -- Hard to guess but possibly nobody, certainly no more than 1 or 2. You seem to have done the calculation backwards, starting from the 309 people who voted Lib Dem in 2013. If one starts with the 11,219 from 1951, it may be that the survivors from that group are the core of those who stayed loyal to voting Lib Dem. So, 4% of 11,219 is 448. Those still living in Ynys Mon is (perhaps) 100. Turnout of those = 30 ish. Still voting Lib Dem might be as much as 10 or 15. Ish. But anyway. A very pedantic point - but why times 11219 by 4%? The 4% is only really relevant to this years election. |
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Post by froome on Aug 4, 2013 13:20:19 GMT
As it happens, I know quite a few Ynys Mon residents who are older than 83, as I have family there, but I have no idea whether any voted LD in 1951, though most would have been resident on the island then.
Of the people I do know well on the island, I'm fairly sure they all now vote PC, even though their indiovidual politics ranges right across the political spectrum. Certainly there are quite a few people there who I would suspect would vote either Lib Dem or Green elsewhere, but vote PC there. I also know people who used to be committed Labour or Conservative voters but who now vote PC. Just how and why this change has come about though, I don't know, but I suspect island politics does embed a certain isolationist and nationalistic viewpoint in many.
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Post by johnloony on Aug 4, 2013 19:21:40 GMT
A very pedantic point - but why times 11219 by 4%? The 4% is only really relevant to this years election. Oh, hang on... yes you're right. I'm confuzzling myself. Obviously what we need to do is abolish the secret ballot so that future psephologists will know the answer to such questions. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Aug 4, 2013 22:35:02 GMT
As it happens, I know quite a few Ynys Mon residents who are older than 83, as I have family there, but I have no idea whether any voted LD in 1951, though most would have been resident on the island then. I would guess that no-one voted LD in 1951 because they didn't exist. In any event a fair proportion of the over 83s on the Island will be incoming retirees from England. The incidence of incomer from England on the Island may go some way to explain the size of the UKIP vote. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2013 23:16:30 GMT
I wonder how many of those people (a) are still alive, (b) still live in Ynys Mon, and (c) still voted Lib Dem. Why? |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 5:50:45 GMT
I wonder how many of those people (a) are still alive, (b) still live in Ynys Mon, and (c) still voted Lib Dem. Why? John thinks a lot of crazy things. |
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tim13
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Post by tim13 on Aug 5, 2013 6:48:08 GMT
Which is why he's johnloony, after all.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Aug 5, 2013 6:58:40 GMT
As it happens, I know quite a few Ynys Mon residents who are older than 83, as I have family there, but I have no idea whether any voted LD in 1951, though most would have been resident on the island then. I would guess that no-one voted LD in 1951 because they didn't exist. In any event a fair proportion of the over 83s on the Island will be incoming retirees from England. The incidence of incomer from England on the Island may go some way to explain the size of the UKIP vote. There may be some truth in that, as an agricultural constituency it probably benefits from the EU more than most of the mainland constituencies and I can't imagine that a very high proportion of farmers are anti EU. |
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Post by froome on Aug 5, 2013 8:32:55 GMT
As it happens, I know quite a few Ynys Mon residents who are older than 83, as I have family there, but I have no idea whether any voted LD in 1951, though most would have been resident on the island then. I would guess that no-one voted LD in 1951 because they didn't exist. In any event a fair proportion of the over 83s on the Island will be incoming retirees from England. The incidence of incomer from England on the Island may go some way to explain the size of the UKIP vote. I wondered who would pick me up first on the LD slip-up - my money was on Mr Loony.  There is certainly a population of English retirees on the island, but IME it isn't as large as most people might imagine. The areas of the island I know well are the south-east (the Beaumaris end) and even here I have come across relatively few. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 5, 2013 11:38:28 GMT
I would guess that no-one voted LD in 1951 because they didn't exist. In any event a fair proportion of the over 83s on the Island will be incoming retirees from England. The incidence of incomer from England on the Island may go some way to explain the size of the UKIP vote. There may be some truth in that, as an agricultural constituency it probably benefits from the EU more than most of the mainland constituencies and I can't imagine that a very high proportion of farmers are anti EU. One of my MEPs represents UKIP and is a farmer. Hates everything about the EU bar his subsidies. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 5, 2013 15:03:53 GMT
Yes, you should never look to farmers for consistency in such matters. Not that there are all that many farmers on the Island anyway; it's a lot less agricultural than people tend to assume.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 5, 2013 15:10:33 GMT
As it happens, I know quite a few Ynys Mon residents who are older than 83, as I have family there, but I have no idea whether any voted LD in 1951, though most would have been resident on the island then. Of the people I do know well on the island, I'm fairly sure they all now vote PC, even though their indiovidual politics ranges right across the political spectrum. Certainly there are quite a few people there who I would suspect would vote either Lib Dem or Green elsewhere, but vote PC there. I also know people who used to be committed Labour or Conservative voters but who now vote PC. Just how and why this change has come about though, I don't know, but I suspect island politics does embed a certain isolationist and nationalistic viewpoint in many. This makes me vaguely wonder how my dad's (long deceased) uncle Griff voted in 51; he was a die-hard nationalist, but Plaid didn't run a candidate on the Island until '55. |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 5, 2013 16:33:49 GMT
I wonder how many of those people (a) are still alive, (b) still live in Ynys Mon, and (c) still voted Lib Dem. Why? Because I'm curious. It is curiosity which stimulates enquiry, exploration, adventure, discovery, enlightenment, knowledge, scientific and cultural advances, material and psychological benefits, and chocolate biscuits. If we weren't curious, we would still be shrews living in a cave. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 5, 2013 16:55:16 GMT
I wonder how many of those people (a) are still alive, (b) still live in Ynys Mon, and (c) still voted Lib Dem. Why? Why do you say why? |
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