Ynys Mon

[Deleted]

[andrea]

12,601 votes for Plaid

[Deleted]

[Andrew_S]

PC 12601
Lab 3435
UKIP 3099
Con 1843
Soc Lab 348
LD 309

[AdminSTB]

Ynys Mon result: 12,601 Plaid, 309 LibDem, 1,843 Welsh Conservative, 3,099 UKIP, 348 Socialist Labour, 3,435 Labour

[Andrew_S]

PC 58.24%
Lab 15.88%
UKIP 14.32%
Con 8.52%
Soc Lab 1.61%
LD 1.43%

[Deleted]

Our broadcasters really, really can't cover by-elections, eh?

[Deleted]

Big win for Plaid Cymru. Highest ever share in Assembly election on the island. Three times the vote of Labour in 2nd place. Of the rest only UKIP have anything to be happy about, I guess

[libfozzy]

That's a pretty solid result for Plaid Cymru. I imagine Albert Owen is feeling pretty terrified - the Labour vote was utterly obliterated.

[johnr]

Shocking result for Labour really. The by-election has had much coverage, so any ideas why it went so wrong for Labour? Wrong candidate? Or are the welsh now voting differently at different elections in the same way the Scots are doing?

[Deleted]

well glass half full here and we went from third to 2nd :-)

and it matched up with the local election results. According to BBC this morning the big issue they said was about nuclear power and somehow the PC candidate bridged a gap between his party being against but it being a big employer there.

[The Bishop]

Aug 2, 2013 7:59:04 GMT libfozzy said:

That's a pretty solid result for Plaid Cymru. I imagine Albert Owen is feeling pretty terrified - the Labour vote was utterly obliterated.

Which should tell you that this wasn't simply a vote on party lines.....

Any comment on your own result, btw??

(you managed a mighty 1.43%, as opposed to a paltry 1.42% in South Shields - the upswing is upon us!)

[The Bishop]

A terrible result for everybody save Plaid and UKIP, truth be told (it shouldn't be missed that the Tory vote fell by twice as much as ours)

In retrospect, given the rather (hem) unique political culture of the island, not picking a "local" candidate was clearly a mistake by both Labour and the Tories. I do also wonder in our case, however, if there isn't a bit of a backlash against people with famous political parents amongst some of the electorate - it is seen as one of the vices of our modern political culture (even somebody with a fairly faultless record of political activism like Will Straw is regarded with instinctive suspicion by some because of this) This might not be fair (I take Al's comments above about our candidate) but it undoubtedly exists and we have to be aware of it.

Sibboleth's comment about being a TV person being an advantage could also well be correct. Surprised it hasn't happened more often, tbh (I think the folk memory of the 1983 Darlington by-election might have something to do with that) but seeing Plaid's blowout here, that could change?

[Philip Davies]

It is a seat that has had Tory, Whig, Liberal, Indepedent Labour, Liberal, Labour, Conservative and Plaid Cymru MPs. The personality of the candidate is important here as it is in celtic rural areas. If it wasn't for Albert Owen pipping the PC candidate in 2001 then this would be probably be a comfortably PC Westminster seat.

[The Bishop]

Since 1951, when Labour narrowly defeated the sitting Liberal (Megan Lloyd-George, who returned as a Labour MP later) this seat at Westminster has changed hands every time an incumbent has retired - 1979, 1987 and 2001 - but on no other occasion.

Will 2015 see Albert Owen the first incumbent to lose since ML-G? Possibly, but even after yesterday I wouldn't bet on it.....

[libfozzy]

Aug 2, 2013 9:21:28 GMT The Bishop said:

Aug 2, 2013 7:59:04 GMT libfozzy said:

That's a pretty solid result for Plaid Cymru. I imagine Albert Owen is feeling pretty terrified - the Labour vote was utterly obliterated.

Which should tell you that this wasn't simply a vote on party lines.....

Any comment on your own result, btw??

(you managed a mighty 1.43%, as opposed to a paltry 1.42% in South Shields - the upswing is upon us!)

It was horrendous.... As expected. Even in the highs of 2010 we only managed 7.5%. Since 1997 we've only managed to save our deposit four times on Ynys Mon and never broken 8.5%. Also, fun fact. We haven't been above 10% in Ynys Mon since 1974 and haven't really been in contention since 1955.

In fact given that, I think being above 1% was quite an achievement

[meurig]

Aug 2, 2013 10:03:44 GMT The Bishop said:

this seat at Westminster has changed hands every time an incumbent has retired - 1979, 1987 and 2001 

Well, 1987 was technically 'incarcerated' rather than 'retired'!
Happy today (surprised, huh?). A great reward for an excellent campaign. Also a terrific result from the council election in Caerphilly.
blogs.cf.ac.uk/electionsinwales/

[Pete Whitehead]

I wish he was still incarcerated

[Sibboleth]

Aug 2, 2013 9:43:00 GMT The Bishop said:

In retrospect, given the rather (hem) unique political culture of the island, not picking a "local" candidate was clearly a mistake by both Labour and the Tories.

In fairness the Tories did pick a local candidate. But a locally controversial one. Which is even worse than picking an actual outsider.

[Sibboleth]

No reason for Owen to be any more worried than he might have been before, actually. He's not an idiot and knows that he'll never be safe. In any event, he basically wins off a large personal vote on a low share of the poll.

Hilariously, this is only the second time that Labour have finished second on the Island for an Assembly election.

Aug 2, 2013 9:29:26 GMT @trident said:

We did okay in the council elections in May.

Didn't do a very good job of turning votes into seats, mind, but, yeah. Though the suburban Holyhead division (as opposed to Town) was an absolute disaster.