Ynys Mon

[libfozzy]

According to the BBC Ieuan Wyn Jones is announcing he's standing down as an AM tomorrow morning. Story here: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-22944836

That'll trigger a rare Assembly by-election on Ynys Mon.

[libfozzy]

I'd imagine that Adam Price will stick to Carmarthen, he'd already announced a preference for there - Ynys Mon would be quite a leap for him to take. Still, I guess it is possible.

[Sibboleth]

That would be one way of losing the seat, yes.

[Sibboleth]

Anyway, this is kind of random. General thoughts would be that the sort of turnout (and turnout patterns etc) seen in Assembly elections generically favour Plaid (as opposed to Westminster elections where generically no one is favoured).

[cibwr]

No Dafydd Wigley was John Major's pair - and the only non Tory at his party to celebrate him winning the Tory leadership.

[LDCaerdydd]

This is where he's off too - www.bangor.ac.uk/humanresources/saxtonpost2.php.en

Bangor University is looking for a person of high prominence in Wales, with understanding of the relationship to the UK and the European Union in a devolved administration. Knowledge of the role of Universities in Economic regeneration and the challenges facing the economy of the region are essential. Key capabilities include being effective in business engagement, politically astute, a proven networker and quite simply a person with credibility. An understanding of the political and economic environment in Wales is essential for the success of this project and the successful candidate will have substantial previous leadership in a high visibility role.

[innocentabroad]

Jun 18, 2013 8:25:13 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

This is where he's off too - www.bangor.ac.uk/humanresources/saxtonpost2.php.en

Bangor University is looking for a person of high prominence in Wales, with understanding of the relationship to the UK and the European Union in a devolved administration. Knowledge of the role of Universities in Economic regeneration and the challenges facing the economy of the region are essential. Key capabilities include being effective in business engagement, politically astute, a proven networker and quite simply a person with credibility. An understanding of the political and economic environment in Wales is essential for the success of this project and the successful candidate will have substantial previous leadership in a high visibility role.

Sounds like they found their man first and wrote the advertisement afterwards...

[Tony Otim]

Jun 18, 2013 8:46:48 GMT innocentabroad said:

Jun 18, 2013 8:25:13 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

This is where he's off too - www.bangor.ac.uk/humanresources/saxtonpost2.php.en

Sounds like they found their man first and wrote the advertisement afterwards...

A practice that would be so uncommon in university recruitment

[Deleted]

The LibDem vote can't get any lower here, that's one thing....

[AdminSTB]

Welsh Assembly Election 2011: Ynys Môn
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Plaid Cymru Ieuan Wyn Jones 9,969 41.4 +1.7
Conservative Paul Williams 7,032 29.2 +16.2
Labour Joe Lock 6,307 26.2 +8.8
Liberal Democrats Rhys Taylor 759 3.2 −0.2


Nah, the Lib Dems could easily lose another 759 votes. Well, 758 if they manage to find a local candidate.

[AdminSTB]

Welsh Assembly Election 2011: Ynys Môn
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Plaid Cymru Ieuan Wyn Jones 9,969 41.4 +1.7
Conservative Paul Williams 7,032 29.2 +16.2
Labour Joe Lock 6,307 26.2 +8.8
Liberal Democrats Rhys Taylor 759 3.2 −0.2


Nah, the Lib Dems could easily lose another 759 votes. Well, 758 if they manage to find a local candidate.

[libfozzy]

From the local elections last time......

Party Seats Change Seats % Votes Votes %
Independents 14 -9 46.7% 19,341 31.9%
Plaid Cymru 12 +4 40.0% 19,649 32.4%
Labour 3 -2 10.0% 10,378 17.1%
Lib Dems 1 -1 3.3% 3,130 5.2%
UKIP 0 4,447 7.3%
Conservative 0 -2 3,613 6.0%

[AdminSTB]

Full local results:
www.welshelections.org.uk/wales/l13/isleanglesey.php

[LDCaerdydd]

Assuming a half decent candidate from Plaid, Labour and Conservatives this could be a very interesting three way scrap.

Obviously this seat has been held by Plaid in the Assembly since 1999.

At a Westminster level it's only changed hands when the sitting MP retires, the last time that didn't happen was in 1951 when Labour beat Megan Lloyd George.

If Labour gain this it'll give them 31 seats and a majority in their own right for the first time ever. For Labour not to gain this could cause an issue ahead of 2015, if they can't win a seat in the Assembly that they hold in Westminster could be a problem.

If Plaid loose it they'll sink to just 10 AMs and have little change of winning the seat in 2015.

The Conservatives have absolutely nothing to loose here.

I was talking to someone about the chances of IWJ standing down in 2016 only a few weeks ago and we said that would be the seat to watch, by-election factors complicate things and could see the Conservatives relegated to onlookers.

Stunningly high turnout for the local elections though. Even if the Lib Dems manage to scrape 5% it wont involve 3000+ votes.

[andrea]

Jun 18, 2013 11:36:55 GMT @trident said:

Jun 17, 2013 22:45:38 GMT Sibboleth said:

Anyway, this is kind of random. General thoughts would be that the sort of turnout (and turnout patterns etc) seen in Assembly elections generically favour Plaid (as opposed to Westminster elections where generically no one is favoured).

I would concur with that, although I wonder if there could be a strong Labour challenge with the right candidate, whoever that might be?

I can't remember the last time there was an Assembly by-election, wasn't it about ten years ago in Swansea East?

Blaenau Gwent 2006 when Trish Law succeeded her husband.
The only other by-election has been Swansea East 2001.

[mrhell]

Jun 18, 2013 9:00:29 GMT AdminSTB said:

Welsh Assembly Election 2011: Ynys Môn
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Plaid Cymru Ieuan Wyn Jones 9,969 41.4 +1.7
Conservative Paul Williams 7,032 29.2 +16.2
Labour Joe Lock 6,307 26.2 +8.8
Liberal Democrats Rhys Taylor 759 3.2 −0.2


Nah, the Lib Dems could easily lose another 759 votes. Well, 758 if they manage to find a local candidate.

No need for that sort of insult. We'll always vote for the best candidate even if it's not ourselves.

[Sibboleth]

Candidate quality will definitely be critical.

[iainbhx]

Jun 18, 2013 12:24:33 GMT Sibboleth said:

Candidate quality will definitely be critical.

For interesting values of quality. I suspect a small horde of independents might chance their hand, but I would defer to your local knowledge.

[marksenior]

Jun 18, 2013 9:00:26 GMT AdminSTB said:

Welsh Assembly Election 2011: Ynys Môn
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Plaid Cymru Ieuan Wyn Jones 9,969 41.4 +1.7
Conservative Paul Williams 7,032 29.2 +16.2
Labour Joe Lock 6,307 26.2 +8.8
Liberal Democrats Rhys Taylor 759 3.2 −0.2


Nah, the Lib Dems could easily lose another 759 votes. Well, 758 if they manage to find a local candidate.

Approx figures from the local elections this year

Plaid 9,000
Labour 6,300
Conservative 2,700 ( 1 ward not fought )
Lib Dem 2,350 ( only 3 wards fought )
UKIP 4,500

Indicates Plaid firm favourites , Labour challenging , the Conservatives greatly down below UKIP and Lib Dems up and challenging Conservatives for 4th place .

[Deleted]