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Post by iainbhx on Nov 1, 2024 13:48:47 GMT
There was likely some Labour to Reform movement, but a look at the name of the Green candidate gives a fair clue as to where a lot of Labour's "lost" votes went. Still, it means "vote Green, get Reform" will be a genuine card to play next time. Turnout differentials etc, but technically speaking the Green share (=gain) makes up just a little over half the Labour loss. They lost in all directions, that the Greens got an ethnic bloc vote is in itself telling about Labour. None of that was my original intention, I was mostly just amused by the exact identity of the "left" and "right" votes (itself not really sthg that shd happen in this ward), though of course also aware that the right split their vote more effectively. This is roughly my assessment and I may be one of the few members of the forum who occasionally goes to Bilston, although it has been a couple of years since my last visit. The Reform wench, as we say, was local, reasonably well know and worked fairly hard, she'll have taken white Labour voters and Tories, especially as the Tory was from Oxley which is not just in Wolverhampton, whilst old Bilstonians will insist they are not, but the other side of Wolverhampton. The Green candidate will have undoubtedly taken mainly Sikh votes, although looking at the figures, probably not all of them, turnout was down about 6% which isn't that bad for a late October by-election but I'd guess most of those staying at home were Labour voters. The Labour candidate may have been a bit young for a Bilston by-election where I suspect most voters would be well over 50. |
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Nov 1, 2024 13:58:11 GMT
Still no word from Bishops Waltham? I was just about to post the same! LD gain being reported |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 1, 2024 13:59:26 GMT
I was just about to post the same! LD gain being reported 🔶LDM 2210 🌳CON 1431 🌍GRN 477 🌹LAB 115 |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 1, 2024 14:05:01 GMT
Hampshire
LD 52.2% (+28.6)
Con 33.8% (-23.1)
Green 11.3% (-1.9)
Lab 2.7% (-3.6)
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 1, 2024 14:05:51 GMT
Hampshire LD 52.2% (+28.6) Con 33.8% (-23.1) Green 11.3% (-1.9) Lab 2.7% (-3.6) Blimey. What's the turnout? That's a stonking swing to close a curious set of by-elections. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 1, 2024 14:06:03 GMT
Hampshire LD 52.2% (+28.6) Con 33.8% (-23.1) Green 11.3% (-1.9) Lab 2.7% (-3.6) That'll do nicely. |
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Post by sanders on Nov 1, 2024 14:06:13 GMT
Hampshire LD 52.2% (+28.6) Con 33.8% (-23.1) Green 11.3% (-1.9) Lab 2.7% (-3.6) Feels like the GE result again. Size of that swing - blooming heck. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 1, 2024 14:10:27 GMT
An update on the statistics for the by elections held in this local electoral year, following the May 2024 local elections.
Following the 7 contests held on the 31st October, there have now been 190 ordinary by elections for 192 seats since 2nd May 2024.
The Conservatives have defended 42- held 28 and lost 14- 6 to Labour, 5 to the Lib Dems, 1 to RefUK and 2 to Independents (retention rate 67% ) and have gained 26
Labour have defended 101- held 73 and lost 28- 15 to the Conservatives, 6 to the Greens, 3 to the Lib Dems, 2 to the SNP and 2 to RefUK ( retention rate 72%) and have gained 10
The Lib Dems have defended 27- held 18 and lost 9- 5 to the Conservatives, 2 to Labour and 1 each to the SNP and an Independent ( retention rate 67%) and have gained 8
The Greens have defended 5- held 4 and lost 1 to the Conservatives, ( retention rate 80%) and have gained 6
RefUK have gained 3 seats
SNP have defended 1, held 1 ( retention rate 100%) and have gained 3 seats
PC have defended 2, held 1 and lost 1 ( retention rate 50%) and have gained 1 seat
There have been 13 by elections for a seat previously won by an Independent, 5 were won by another Independent, 5 were gained by the Conservatives 2 by Labour, and 1 by Plaid and an Independent has gained 4 seats
Localist groups have defended 1, held 1
Overall totals and net changes since May
Con 54 (+12)
Lab 83 (-18)
LD 26 (-1)
Green 10 (+5)
Ind 9 (-4)
RefUK 3 (+3)
SNP 4 (+3)
PC 2 (=)
Loc 1 (=)
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 1, 2024 14:20:22 GMT
Hampshire LD 52.2% (+28.6) Con 33.8% (-23.1) Green 11.3% (-1.9) Lab 2.7% (-3.6) Blimey. What's the turnout? That's a stonking swing to close a curious set of by-elections. 28.8% turnout |
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jamesdoyle
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Post by jamesdoyle on Nov 1, 2024 14:22:02 GMT
GWBWI
LDm +140
Grn +36
Con -60
Lab -103
It was very close between Green and Con for second - and neither was too far behind the LibDems - until the Hampshire result came in. COns lose more from Hampshire than they gain from Stockport (-89, +63), and the reverse for the LibDems (+67, -35). Still, Labour struggles are the main theme, with Salford a solitary, and weak plus point
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Post by southernliberal on Nov 1, 2024 14:30:38 GMT
GWBWI LDm +140 Grn +36 Con -60 Lab -103 It was very close between Green and Con for second - and neither was too far behind the LibDems - until the Hampshire result came in. COns lose more from Hampshire than they gain from Stockport (-89, +63), and the reverse for the LibDems (+67, -35). Still, Labour struggles are the main theme, with Salford a solitary, and weak plus point Could someone point me in the right direction for how this is calculated and what the GWBWI means/stands for? |
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Post by Adam Gray on Nov 1, 2024 14:33:48 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 1, 2024 14:37:06 GMT
Why is anyone surprised about the size of that swing to the Lib Dems in Bishops Waltham? Presumably this was in line with most predictions in the competition?
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Nov 1, 2024 14:39:19 GMT
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 1, 2024 14:45:01 GMT
Unless the Essex by election gets called, that Hampshire contest will be the last Conservative by election defence from their 2021 high water mark and I imagine they will be pleased about that.
At the moment the Conservatives and Lib Dem’s are roughly treading water against each other in council by elections- 5 gains each from each other since May.
You’d think the Conservatives are likely to continue making net gains of seats in local by elections in the next few months. Next May will be tricky for them though- the Southern county councils, particularly contests against the LDs could be pretty poor, and it won’t be so bad against Lab, but net losses there are quite likely too.
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Nov 1, 2024 15:46:13 GMT
Looking at those figures - haven't Welsh voters got the message about not turning out for local by-elections? Before yesterday's 37% turnout in Stockport, the highest non-Welsh turnout this month seems to have been in Lewes three weeks ago - which itself was only marginally above the worst turnout in Wales this month, last week in Anglesey (at just under 32%). And even that Stockport turnout was only middling by apparent Welsh standards. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 1, 2024 16:16:59 GMT
Ah but by Island standards 32% counts as a risible sub-20% turnout.
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Post by londonseal80 on Nov 1, 2024 16:38:10 GMT
Unless the Essex by election gets called, that Hampshire contest will be the last Conservative by election defence from their 2021 high water mark and I imagine they will be pleased about that. At the moment the Conservatives and Lib Dem’s are roughly treading water against each other in council by elections- 5 gains each from each other since May. You’d think the Conservatives are likely to continue making net gains of seats in local by elections in the next few months. Next May will be tricky for them though- the Southern county councils, particularly contests against the LDs could be pretty poor, and it won’t be so bad against Lab, but net losses there are quite likely too. I agree with most of that, that’s why I believe they will quite easily hold Kent, but likely lose Surrey and Hampshire. |
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iang
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Post by iang on Nov 1, 2024 17:48:18 GMT
Shropshire will be one to watch in this context, as I should think we will make many gains within North Shropshire, where we don't have any councillors above town council level within Helen Morgan's seat. Whether that will prove sufficient to tip it into NOC or even take outright LD control is another thing, but it should see significant gains.
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Post by johnloony on Nov 1, 2024 19:36:11 GMT
GWBWI LDm +140 Grn +36 Con -60 Lab -103 It was very close between Green and Con for second - and neither was too far behind the LibDems - until the Hampshire result came in. COns lose more from Hampshire than they gain from Stockport (-89, +63), and the reverse for the LibDems (+67, -35). Still, Labour struggles are the main theme, with Salford a solitary, and weak plus point Could someone point me in the right direction for how this is calculated and what the GWBWI means/stands for? It stands for Ood Eek Ad Eek Ndex. The calculation is by the traditional methodology of plucking random numbers out of a hippopotamus's bottom. (Actually it probably isn't, but only jamesdoyle and nobody else actually cares about the method). |
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