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Post by carlton43 on Nov 1, 2024 10:08:31 GMT
The persistence of Powellite thinking has been remarkable considering it must be 50 years since he was an MP for Wolverhampton. Also remarkable that these views persist so strongly when demographic change is making Global Majority citizens a rapidly increasing percentage of the local population. Great men leave great ripples. Proud to have been a Powellite and to remain one to this day. |
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Post by sanders on Nov 1, 2024 10:11:09 GMT
Kirkby Stphen is nowhere near Windermere. I'm talking about the council as a whole, but fair point, it's not that far from Ullswater. It's certainly been an important issue to Lib Dems and Farron especially. |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 1, 2024 10:29:22 GMT
Percentages and changes from the results last night. Charnwood. Changes from 2023 Green 52.9% (-0.8) REFUK 20.9% ( new) Con 18.4% (-7.8) Lab 4.9% (-11.7) LD 2.8% (-0.7) Rochdale. Changes from 2024 MIP 51.7% (+8.3) Lab 36.3% (-12) Con 6.9% (+0.3) LD 5.1% (+3.4) Salford. Changes from 2024 Lab 51.2% (-11.9) Con 23 % (+6.2) Green 14.1% (-0.1) LD 7.7% (new) TUSC 4.1% (-1.8) Stockport. Changes from 2024 Con 47.9% (+4.4) LD 43.5% (-1.4) REfUK 3.3% (new) Lab 2.9% (-4.2) Green 2.4% (-2.3) Westmorland and Furness. Changes from 2022 LD 82.7% (+48.8) Con 17.3% (-24.6) No Ind from before Wolverhampton. Changes from 2024 REFUK 34.8% ( new) Lab 25.1% (-46.2) Green 23.4% (new) Con 13.7% (-15) LD 2.9% ( new) In the first three of those contests Labour dropped a 'uniform' 12% which must be a bit worrying, until one see the earthquake at Bilston! |
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 1, 2024 10:34:31 GMT
It really doesn't matter. Most people won't vote, Labour have said what they do, and in time, it's up to them.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 1, 2024 11:26:45 GMT
I was expecting it, some of it will be people in new homes in Woodford complaining about new homes being built, some of it will be that its just well, it should really never been anything but Tory. I suspect that the Woodford house complainers probably split across both parties, and it is Bramhall itself wot won it. I also note that the chairman of the constituency association is now Mark Cornes, a great bloke who is very good at organising. That is what has been missing from the area for some time. I was also not surprised. None of our gains in the ward had been by much and the chap who died was the one who had worked for years to get in so with his demise it was the low hanging fruit for the Conservatives (as he wasn't around on our side for the coattails to be travelled on/campaign). And surely if the Tories are going to come back anywhere in the Borough it was going to be Bramhall. |
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Post by carolus on Nov 1, 2024 11:31:10 GMT
Kirkby Stphen is nowhere near Windermere. And so just imagine what the result would have been if it were! |
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 1, 2024 11:41:08 GMT
Kirkby Stphen is nowhere near Windermere. I'm talking about the council as a whole, but fair point, it's not that far from Ullswater. It's certainly been an important issue to Lib Dems and Farron especially. Ullswater isn't much nearer. This is a Pennine ward, not a Lakes ward - there is no road west from Tebay. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 1, 2024 11:53:27 GMT
I suspect that the Woodford house complainers probably split across both parties, and it is Bramhall itself wot won it. I also note that the chairman of the constituency association is now Mark Cornes, a great bloke who is very good at organising. That is what has been missing from the area for some time. I was also not surprised. None of our gains in the ward had been by much and the chap who died was the one who had worked for years to get in so with his demise it was the low hanging fruit for the Conservatives (as he wasn't around on our side for the coattails to be travelled on/campaign). And surely if the Tories are going to come back anywhere in the Borough it was going to be Bramhall. They were always going to return, but for it to be this early in the cycle surprised me. Not least because of the anaemia of the Conservative campaigns over the last few years. But then again, I'm not there at the moment! Probably no more gains anytime soon though. |
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Post by thirdchill on Nov 1, 2024 11:53:40 GMT
For the Kirkby Stephen and Tebay ward, it's almost certainly a mix of strong campaigning (from the lib dems), picking the right candidate (a strong local candidate definitely plays well here, as it does in a lot of the more rural areas of cumbria) and changes to the parliamentary boundaries which bring this area into Tim Farron's constituency (the lib dem potential in the past probably did not happen simply because this area was in a constituency where the lib dems were not at all competitive).
Kirkby Stephen is a very nice place to visit and have been there a few times (and drive through it when travelling to the north east).
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Post by sanders on Nov 1, 2024 12:06:49 GMT
I'm talking about the council as a whole, but fair point, it's not that far from Ullswater. It's certainly been an important issue to Lib Dems and Farron especially. Ullswater isn't much nearer. This is a Pennine ward, not a Lakes ward - there is no road west from Tebay. Useful to know if I ever visit Cumbria. I don't know the area well at all. Or the constituency. Or the ward. |
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Post by carolus on Nov 1, 2024 12:09:51 GMT
For the Kirkby Stephen and Tebay ward, it's almost certainly a mix of strong campaigning (from the lib dems), picking the right candidate (a strong local candidate definitely plays well here, as it does in a lot of the more rural areas of cumbria) and changes to the parliamentary boundaries which bring this area into Tim Farron's constituency (the lib dem potential in the past probably did not happen simply because this area was in a constituency where the lib dems were not at all competitive). Kirkby Stephen is a very nice place to visit and have been there a few times (and drive through it when travelling to the north east). I think the 2022 result probably flattered the Conservatives here - one candidate who was the incumbent county and district councillor and comfortably topped the poll, but whose running mate came absolutely miles behind. Suggests to be that the retiring councillor was personally extremely popular, rather than the party. |
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Post by sanders on Nov 1, 2024 12:15:12 GMT
It really doesn't matter. Most people won't vote, Labour have said what they do, and in time, it's up to them. Labour front loading the unpopular excisions. Things, they can only get better. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 1, 2024 12:24:01 GMT
Stockport, Bramhall South and Woodford Con 1909 LD 1733 RefUK 133 Lab 115 Green 95 There were stories that Peter Crossen was working the ward hard, but I didn't expect him to win. The council aren't particularly unpopular and the constituency was won handily by the Lib Dems. This is very possibly a victory for good old-fashioned hard work by a candidate. Plus "get the Tories back on Stockport council" might have been quite an appealing message to some. |
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Post by carolus on Nov 1, 2024 13:01:26 GMT
Still no word from Bishops Waltham?
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Post by jamesdoyle on Nov 1, 2024 13:02:25 GMT
Still no word from Bishops Waltham? I was just about to post the same! |
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Khunanup
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Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 1, 2024 13:02:51 GMT
Still no word from Bishops Waltham? Not yet. |
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Post by carolus on Nov 1, 2024 13:10:20 GMT
Still no word from Bishops Waltham? I was just about to post the same! I suppose it must take longer to get anywhere if they can only move diagonally. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 1, 2024 13:13:13 GMT
Exact tie between Lab+Grn and Ref+Con, too That was probably as much Labour losses to Reform as it was to the Greens, rather than any assumption that the Greens lost it for Labour. There was likely some Labour to Reform movement, but a look at the name of the Green candidate gives a fair clue as to where a lot of Labour's "lost" votes went. Still, it means "vote Green, get Reform" will be a genuine card to play next time. |
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Post by sanders on Nov 1, 2024 13:21:04 GMT
I was just about to post the same! I suppose it must take longer to get anywhere if they can only move diagonally. If the Lib Dems win, they can keep the Tories in check. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 1, 2024 13:31:06 GMT
That was probably as much Labour losses to Reform as it was to the Greens, rather than any assumption that the Greens lost it for Labour. There was likely some Labour to Reform movement, but a look at the name of the Green candidate gives a fair clue as to where a lot of Labour's "lost" votes went. Still, it means "vote Green, get Reform" will be a genuine card to play next time. Turnout differentials etc, but technically speaking the Green share (=gain) makes up just a little over half the Labour loss. They lost in all directions, that the Greens got an ethnic bloc vote is in itself telling about Labour. None of that was my original intention, I was mostly just amused by the exact identity of the "left" and "right" votes (itself not really sthg that shd happen in this ward), though of course also aware that the right split their vote more effectively. |
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