Prediction Competition - October 2024

[robbienicoll]

It’s the big one! There are currently 61 by-elections to be held during October.

- 4 by-elections on 3 October
- 1 on 9 October (a Wednesday)
- 20 on 10 October
- 16 on 17 October
- 13 on 24 October
- 7 on 31 October

20 by-elections are for district councils, 8 last contested in May, 11 in 2023 (1 of which was uncontested) and 1 in 2022
10 are for unitary authorities, 2 last contested in May, 4 in 2023, 3 in 2022, 1 in 2021 and 1 with a 2024 by-election with the last full election in 2022
11 are for metropolitan borough councils, all last contested in May
7 are for Welsh councils, all last contested in 2022 (1 of which was uncontested)
5 are for London borough councils, all last contested in 2022
5 is for Scottish councils, all last contested in 2022
2 are for county councils, both last contested in 2021

Labour defend 28 seats, 25 following a resignation, 3 the death of the previous councillor and 1 unknown but likely a resignation
Conservatives defend 12 seats, 6 following a resignation, 5 the death of the previous councillor and 1 disqualification
Liberal Democrats defend 10 seats, 9 following a resignation and 1 the death of the previous councillor
Independents defend 4 seats, all following the death of the previous councillor
Greens defend 2 seats, both following a resignation
SNP defend 1 seat following a resignation
Plaid Cymru defend 1 seat following a likely resignation
Middleton Independent Party defend 1 seat following a disqualification

With all SOPNs having been published, there are 59 Conservative candidates, 56 Liberal Democrats, 54 Labour, 44 Greens, 21 Reform UK, 7 Workers Party, 6 TUSC, 5 SNP, 5 Plaid Cymru, 3 Scottish Greens, 2 UKIP and 2 Social Democratic Party along with 1 apiece for Alba, Coventry Citizens, Weybridge and St George’s Independents, Progressive Change North Lanarkshire, British Unionist Party, Borough First Independents, Middleton Independents Party and Skegness Urban District Society together with together with 18 Independents and 1 No Description contesting 19 elections – a total of 293 candidates for 61 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

[batman]

BLACKPOOL, Marton : C 41 Lab 33 Ind 9 RefUK 8 Green 5 LD 4

DUNDEE, Lochee : Lab 39 SNP 39 C 9 Green 5 LD 3 Alba 3 WP 2. Lab win on transfers

DUNDEE, Strathmartine : SNP 33 Lab 29 LD 25 C 8 Green 4 TUSC 1. Lab win on transfers

LANCASTER, Scotforth E. : Green 40 Lab 31 C 22 LD 7

[Tony Otim]

Blackpool: Con 30.6; Lab 28.3; Stansfield 22.9; RefUK 11.9; LD 3.5; Grn 2.8
Lochee: Lab 41.7; SNP 33.5; Con 8.9; Alba 5.8; Grn 5.4; LD 3.5; WP 1.2 (Lab win)
Strathmartine: SNP 34.5; Lab 31.0; LD 23.9; Con 5.6; Grn 4.3; TUSC 0.7 Lab win
Lancaster: Grn 44.6; Lab 35.1; Con 14.7; LD 5.6

[Robert Waller]

Tony Otim - do you need to specify a winner in Strathmartine?

[batman]

the assumption is that if a winner is not specified the prediction is that the candidate finishing 1st on 1st prefs will emerge the winner after transfers. It's not compulsory to state the winner unless you're predicting a winner that wasn't first after the first round, although I always do that to make things clear when I enter the competition

[iainbhx]

Blackpool UA, Marton: Con 34 Lab 31 Ind 16 RefUK 11 LDm 5 Grn 3
Dundee SUA, Lochee: Lab 37 SNP 36 Con 10 Alba 6 Grn 5 LDm 4 WPB 2 (Lab win)
Dundee SUA, Strathmartine: SNP 33 Lab 29 LDm 25 Con 7 Grn 5 TUSC 1 (Lab win on transfer)
Lancaster DC, Scotforth East: Grn 46 Lab 34 Con 12 LDm 8

[andrewp]

Blackpool Marton. Lab 31 RefUK 26 Con 25 Ind 10 Ld 4 Green 4
Dundee Lochee, Lab 43 SNP 36 Con 7 Green 5 LD 3 Alba 3 WP 3. Lab win
Dundee. Strathmartine, SNP 37 Lab 32 LD 20 Con 6 Green 4 TUSc 1 . Lab win
Lancaster, Scotforth East, Green 43 Lab 34 Con 18 LD 5

[Robert Waller]

Blackpool UA, Marton: Con 33 Lab 34 Ind 10 RefUK 15 LDm 4 Grn 4

Dundee SUA, Lochee: Lab 42 SNP 35 Con 7 Alba 5 Grn 5 LDm 3 WPB 3 (Lab win)

Dundee SUA, Strathmartine: SNP 34 Lab 29 LDm 25 Con 6 Grn 4 TUSC 2 (Lab win)

Lancaster DC, Scotforth East: Grn 43 Lab 37 Con 15 LDm 5

[kevinf]

Blackpool
Con 33, Lab 32, Ref 11, Ind 10, Green 9, LD 5
Dundee Lochee
SNP 38, Lab 32, Green 10, Con 8, Alba 5, LD 4, WP 3 (snp win)
Dundee Strathmartine
SNP 39, Lab 28.5, LD 20, Green 6, Con 5, Tusc 1.5 (snp win)
Lancaster
Green 44, Lab 35, Con 11, LD 10

[corradino]

Blackpool, Marton: Lab 27, Con 26, Ind 24, Reform 15, Green 4, LD 4.

Dundee, Lochee: Lab 39, SNP 38, Con 9, Green 5, LD 3, Alba 3, WP 3. Lab win.

Dundee, Strathmartine: SNP 38, Lab 32, LD 21, Con 5, Green 3.5, TUSC 0.5. Lab win on transfers.

Lancaster, Scotforth East: Green 44, Lab 34, Con 17, LD 5.

[sanders]

Blackpool, Marton: CON 41 LAB 36 RFM 14 IND 4 LD 4 GRN 1

Dundee, Lochee: LAB 40 SNP 39 CON 9 GRN 4 LD 4 ALBA 3 WP 2 (LAB win on transfers)

Dundee, Strathmartine: LAB 40 SNP 38 LD 9 CON 5 GRN 5 TUSC 3 (LAB win on transfers)

Lancaster, Scotforth East: GRN 42 LAB 39 CON 10 LD 9

[rightleaning]

Blackpool UA, Marton: Con 36, Lab 32, RefUK 13, Ind 7, LDm 7, Grn 5
Dundee SUA, Lochee: Lab 40, SNP 35, Con 11, Grn 6, Alba 3, LDm 3, WPB 2 (Lab win)
Dundee SUA, Strathmartine: SNP 37, Lab 30, LDm 18, Con 8, Grn 5, TUSC 2 (Lab win)
Lancaster DC, Scotforth East: Grn 41, Lab 39, Con 15, LDm 5

[rightleaning]

Oct 3, 2024 4:32:23 GMT sanders said:

Blackpool, Marton: CON 41 LAB 36 RFM 14 IND 4 LD 4 GRN 1

Dundee, Lochee: LAB 40 SNP 39 CON 9 GRN 4 LD 4 ALBA 3 WP 2 (LAB win on transfers)

Dundee, Strathmartine: LAB 40 LAB 38 LD 9 CON 5 GRN 5 TUSC 3 (LAB win on transfers)

Lancaster, Scotforth East: GRN 42 LAB 39 CON 10 LD 9

sanders
You might want to check your Strathmartine prediction - 2xLab, no SNP

[sanders]

Oct 3, 2024 5:40:28 GMT rightleaning said:

Oct 3, 2024 4:32:23 GMT sanders said:

Blackpool, Marton: CON 41 LAB 36 RFM 14 IND 4 LD 4 GRN 1

Dundee, Lochee: LAB 40 SNP 39 CON 9 GRN 4 LD 4 ALBA 3 WP 2 (LAB win on transfers)

Dundee, Strathmartine: LAB 40 LAB 38 LD 9 CON 5 GRN 5 TUSC 3 (LAB win on transfers)

Lancaster, Scotforth East: GRN 42 LAB 39 CON 10 LD 9

sanders
You might want to check your Strathmartine prediction - 2xLab, no SNP

Too early for this, clearly!

[Robert Waller]

On my rough calculations, well done to andrewp who has won the week, I believe.

[robbienicoll]

9 entries to open the mega month, all on time but with sanders picking up 1 fault for going over in Lochee.

Marton, Blackpool: 6 Conservative gain from Labour, with andrewp, corradino and Robert Waller Labour hold.

Lochee, Dundee: 8 Labour ahead on first preferences and hold after transfers, first preference majorities ranging from 0% (batman) to 8.2% (Tony Otim). Kevinf SNP ahead on first preferences and gain after transfers with a first preference majority of 6%.

Strathmartine, Dundee: 7 SNP ahead on first preferences and Labour gain after transfers, with sanders having Labour ahead on firsts and Labour gain after transfers, and kevinf SNP ahead on firsts and SNP hold after transfers.

Scotforth East, Lancaster: 100% Green gain from Labour, with majorities ranging from 2% (Right Leaning) to 12% (iainbhx).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M0TtxIajQiQqc_ZXsDSl7qnRX8ggunYQ-5ghHTBqn7A/edit?usp=sharing - and it is indeed andrewp who takes the lead ahead of the monster contests in the weeks ahead!

[Robert Waller]

Thanks for the official adding, robbienicoll ... I would point out that the numbers for winners of individual contests are different in the last two tables ...

[Tony Otim]

Powys, Machynlleth: PC 34.9; RefUK 25.6; Jones 15.9; Lab 10.3; LD 8.5; Grn 4.8

[Robert Waller]

Powys, Machynlleth: PC 32; RefUK 6; Jones 29; Lab 10; LD 19; Grn 4

[rightleaning]

Powys, Machynlleth: PC 36; Jones 21; LD 19; RefUK 10; Lab 9; Grn 5