Prediction Competition - October 2024

[kevinf]

Powys
Ind 26, PC 23, LD 16, Ref 15, Lab 12, Green 8

[andrewp]

Powys, Machynlleth Ind 36 PC 28 LD 16 Lab 11 RefUK 7 Green 2

[iainbhx]

Powys WUA, Machynlleth: Plaid 32, Ind 29, LDm 18, Lab 10, RefUK 8, Grn 3

[corradino]

Powys, Machynileth: PC 33, Ind 27, LD 19, Lab 9, Reform 8, Green 4.

[batman]

POWYS, Machynlleth : Ind 29 PC 27 LD 16 Lab 12 RefUK 10 Green 6

[sanders]

POWYS, Machynlleth : PC 31 IND 25 LD 20 LAB 10 RFM 9 GRN 5 

[iainbhx]

Oct 9, 2024 1:05:53 GMT batman said:

POWYS, Machynlleth : Ind 29 PC 27 LD 18 Lab 15 RefUK 11

I know she's from Builth, but you appear to have missed the Green candidate.

[batman]

Oct 9, 2024 5:09:35 GMT iainbhx said:

Oct 9, 2024 1:05:53 GMT batman said:

POWYS, Machynlleth : Ind 29 PC 27 LD 18 Lab 15 RefUK 11

I know she's from Builth, but you appear to have missed the Green candidate.

thanks Iain, edited.

[johnloony]

Oct 9, 2024 5:09:35 GMT iainbhx said:

Oct 9, 2024 1:05:53 GMT batman said:

POWYS, Machynlleth : Ind 29 PC 27 LD 18 Lab 15 RefUK 11

I know she's from Builth, but you appear to have missed the Green candidate.

Why the “but”? Is Builth twinned with Bielefeld?

[iainbhx]

Oct 9, 2024 9:09:17 GMT johnloony said:

Oct 9, 2024 5:09:35 GMT iainbhx said:

I know she's from Builth, but you appear to have missed the Green candidate.

Why the “but”? Is Builth twinned with Bielefeld?

Builth is about 50 miles and an hour and 20 mins by car from Mach. I would not expect people from Mach to take such a candidate seriously.

[andrewp]

I might well be wrong, but I wouldn’t be at all shocked if the Green candidate got a single figure vote in Machynlleth

[kevinf]

Oct 9, 2024 11:11:02 GMT andrewp said:

I might well be wrong, but I wouldn’t be at all shocked if the Green candidate got a single figure vote in Machynlleth

But how many work at the Centre for Alternative Energy?

[Tony Otim]

This will be updated gradually until complete.

Coventry: Lab 53.4; Con 12.5; Grn 10.3; TUSC 9.1; CC 6.8, WP 4.1; LD 3.8
Ealing, HH: LD 32.7; Con 30.3; Lab 17.9; Grn 9.4; Ref 6.4; WP 3.3
Ealing NM: Lab 47.2; Con 23.8; Grn 12.0; Ref 7.5; WP 5.7; LD 3.8
Ealing, SA: Lab 40.3; Grn 25.0; Con 13.9; LD 8.4; Ref 5.8; WP 3.0; TUSC 2.2; Carter 1.4
Elmbridge HV: Con 50.8, LD 44.8, Lab 4.4
Elmbridge WSGH: WSGI 50.6, Con 37.9, Grn 11.5
Fylde: Con 39.8, Brickles 38.0, Lab 14.8, Grn 7.4
Harlow: Lab 34.5; Con 26.6; Ref 22.4; Grn 9.5; UKIP 7.0
Leeds: Lab 37.5; Grn 36.4; Con 11.6; Ref 8.4; LD 4.4; SDP 1.2; Allison 0.5
Lewes: Con 42.4; Grn 40.1; LD 17.5
NE Derbyshire: Con 47.7; Lab 36.7; LD 9.4; Grn 6.2
North Lanarkshire F: Lab 39.0; BUP 21.6; SNP 20.6; Con 9.9; PCNL 6.2; LD 2.7
North Lanarkshire M&H: Lab 39.5; SNP 34.3; Ref 12.8; Con 8.9; UKIP 3.1; LD 1.4
North Northants: Grn 35.6; Con 31.5; LD 23.3; Lab 9.6
Pembrokeshire: Con 43.5; Griff 27.7; Harris 18.6; LD 10.2
Runnymede: Con 39.7; Lab 27.9; LD 19.3; Grn 13.1
South Ribble: Lab 48.2; Con 37.2; LD 14.6
Southampton: Con 31.3; Lab 29.0; LD 22.8; Pope 9.1; Grn 6.6; TUSC 1.2
Suffolk: Con 44.5; Grn 42.2; LD 8.6; Lab 4.7
Worthing: Lab 41.2; Con 31.5; Grn 15.7; LD 11.6

[cathyc]

Oct 9, 2024 12:05:16 GMT kevinf said:

Oct 9, 2024 11:11:02 GMT andrewp said:

I might well be wrong, but I wouldn’t be at all shocked if the Green candidate got a single figure vote in Machynlleth

But how many work at the Centre for Alternative Energy?

About half.

[kevinf]

We’ll someone has to start, I suppose-
Coventry
Lab 49, Tusc 15, Green 13, Con 12, CovCitizen 6, LD 3, WP2
Ealing Hanger Hill
LD 38, Con 21, Lab 19, Green 12, LD 6, WP 4
Ealing Northolt
Lab 37, Con 20, Green 15, LD 10, Reform 5, WP 3
Ealing South Acton
Lab 36, Green 25, LD 12, Con 11, Ind 8, Ref 5, WP 2.5, Tusc 0.5
Elmbridge - Horsham
LD 55, Con 41, Lab 4
Elmbridge - Weybridge St G H
WSGI 60, Con 30, Green 10
Fylde
Ind 40, Con 27, Green 17, Lab 16
Harlow
Lab 36, Ref 27, Con 24, Green 12, Ukip 1
Leeds
Green 28.5, Lab 27.5, Ref 18, Con 13, LD 9, SDP 3, Ind 1
Lewes
Green 49, Con 31, LD 20
NE Derby’s
Lab 49, Con 30, LD 15, Green 6
N Lanarkshire - Fortiss
SNP 29, Lab 28, Con 17, BU 15, LD 8, PCNL 3 (Lab win)
N Lanarkshire - Mossend
SNP 36, Lab 32, LD 14, Con 12, Ref 5.7, Ukip 0.3 (Lab win)
N Northants
Green 33, Con 32, LD 25, Lab 10
Pembrokeshire
Ind Griff 48, Con 27, LD 19, Ind Hughes 6
Runnymede
Lab 37 Con 35, LD 15, Green 11
S Ribble
Lab 40, Con 35, LD 25
Southampton
LD 33, Lab 32, Con 20, Green 11, Tusc 2.5, ND 1.5
Suffolk
Con 45, Green 24, LD 21, Lab 10
Worthing
Lab 48, Con 25, Green 19, LD 8

[iainbhx]

Oct 9, 2024 12:05:16 GMT kevinf said:

Oct 9, 2024 11:11:02 GMT andrewp said:

I might well be wrong, but I wouldn’t be at all shocked if the Green candidate got a single figure vote in Machynlleth

But how many work at the Centre for Alternative Energy?

And how many of those actually live in the fairly tightly drawn Machynlleth ward (the CAT is not in the ward but a few miles up the road in Glanywymyn ward), although there are greenish businesses in Mach including several on the Eco Park by the station where my team members are based and I suspect a potentially decent Green vote - but not for a candidate from Builth.

[Merseymike]

Oct 9, 2024 12:05:16 GMT kevinf said:

Oct 9, 2024 11:11:02 GMT andrewp said:

I might well be wrong, but I wouldn’t be at all shocked if the Green candidate got a single figure vote in Machynlleth

But how many work at the Centre for Alternative Energy?

Good point - surprised that the Greens and Plaid Cymru have stood two candidates.

[johnloony]

Oct 9, 2024 11:04:06 GMT iainbhx said:

Oct 9, 2024 9:09:17 GMT johnloony said:

Why the “but”? Is Builth twinned with Bielefeld?

Builth is about 50 miles and an hour and 20 mins by car from Mach. I would not expect people from Mach to take such a candidate seriously.

That would be a reason for the Green candidate to get few votes. It wouldn’t be a reason for the Green candidate to not exist.

[batman]

COVENTRY, St Michael's : Lab 59 C 11 Green 9 TUSC 7 Cov Citi 6 WP 5 LD 3

EALING, Hanger Hill : LD 36 C 29 Lab 17 Green 11 RefUK 5 WP 2

EALING, Northolt Mandeville : Lab 41 C 26 Green 15 RefUK 7 WP 6 LD 5

EALING, S.Acton : Lab 34 Green 23 C 19 LD 10 Ind 5 WP 5 RefUK 3 TUSC 1

ELMBRIDGE, Hersham Village : C 49 LD 45 Lab 6

ELMBRIDGE, Weybridge St George's Hill : WSGI 48 C 42 Green 10

FYLDE, Warton : Ind 48 C 28 Lab 18 Green 6

HARLOW, Little Parndon & Town Centre : Lab 39 C 30 RefUK 20 Green 8 UKIP 3

LEEDS, Farnley & Wortley : Green 35 Lab 28 C 17 RefUK 8 Ind 6 LD 4 SDP 2

LEWES, Wivelsfield : Green 48 C 41 LD 11

N.E.DERBYSHIRE, Clay Cross N : C 46 Lab 41 LD 7 Green 6

N.LANARKSHIRE, Fortissat : Lab 33 SNP 27 BUP 18 C 15 LD 4 PCNL 3. Lab win

N.LANARKSHIRE, Mossend & Holytown : Lab 41 SNP 33 C 18 RefUK 4 LD 3 UKIP 1. Lab win

N.NORTHAMPTONSHIRE, Burton & Broughton : Green 38 C 33 LD 18 Lab 11

PEMBROKESHIRE, The Havens : Ind Griff 46 C 42 LD 7 Ind Hughes 5

RUNNYMEDE, Addlestone S. : C 42 Lab 28 LD 18 Green 12

S.RIBBLE, Bamber Bridge W. : Lab 51 C 38 LD 11

SOUTHAMPTON, Shirley : Lab 33 C 28 LD 17 Green 15 Pope 4 TUSC 3

SUFFOLK, Hoxne & Eye : C 44 LD 25 Green 18 Lab 13

WORTHING, Heene : Lab 44 C 36 Green 14 LD 6

[iainbhx]

Coventry MBC, St Michaels - Lab 45 Grn 14 TUSC 12 WPB 11 Con 10 CovCit 5 LDm 3
Ealing LBC, Hangar Hill - LDm 35 Con 33 Lab 15 Grn 9 WBP 5 RefUK 3
Ealing LBC, Northolt Mandeville - Lab 42 Con 27 Grn 13 RefUK 8 LDm 6 WBP 4
Ealing LBC, South Acton - Lab 33 Grn 22 Con 16 LDm 13 WBP 7 Ind 4 RefUK 3 TUSC 2
Elmbridge DC, Hersham Village - Con 48 LDm 46 Lab 6
Elmbridge DC, Weybridge St Georges - Ind 50 Con 44 Grn 6
Fylde DC, Warton - Con 40 Ind 38 Lab 14 Grn 8
Harlow DC, Little Parndon & Town Centre - Lab 38 Con 29 RefUK 21 Grn 10 UKIP 2
Leeds MBC, Farnley & Wortley - Grn 37 Lab 31 RefUK 12 Con 9 LDm 5 Ind 4 SDP 2
Lewes DC, Wivelsfield - Con 45 Grn 40 LDm 15
North East Derbyshire DC, Clay Cross N - Con 44 Lab 42 LDm 8 Grn 6
North Lanarkshire SUA, Fortissat - Lab 40 BUP 20 SNP 18 Con 12 PCNL 6 LDm 4 - Lab win on Transfers
North Lanarkshire SUA, Mossend & Holytown - Lab 41 SNP 32 Con 16 RefUK 7 LDm 3 UKIP 1 - Lab win on Transfers
North Northamptonshire UA, Burton & Broughton - Con 36 Grn 25 LDm 24 Lab 15
Pembrokeshire WUA, The Havens - Con 41 Ind Hughes 32 Ind Griff 22 LDm 5
Runnymede DC, Addlestone South - Con 44 Lab 32 LDm 14 Grn 10
South Ribble DC, Bamber Bridge West - Lab 50 Con 40 LDm 10
Southampton UA, Shirley - Lab 34 Con 32 LDm 21 Grn 8 Ind Pope 3 TUSC 2
Suffolk CC, Hoxne & Eye - Con 40 Grn 34 LDm 18 Lab 8
Worthing DC, Heene - Lab 40 Con 37 Grn 18 LDm 5