Prediction Competition - October 2024

[corradino]

I must express my admiration for those doughty contenders who, unlike myself, have shown the stamina to compete in yet another by-election marathon. It's a strange experience not having to worry whether I got the prediction right but instead can happily boo the baddies.

[robbienicoll]

8 entries for the penultimate week of the October contest, all on time but with batman receiving 10 faults for going over in Anglesey and Right Leaning 2 faults for going over in BCP.

Muscliff and Strouden Park, Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole: 6 Conservative gain from Independent, with andrewp and kevinf Independent (Houldey) win.

Calder, Calderdale: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 8% (kevinf) to 38.5% (Tony Otim).

Northgate and West Green, Crawley: 7 Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 3% (andrewp, iainbhx and Right Leaning) to 21% (kevinf). Sanders Conservative gain with 7% majority.

Prestatyn North, Denbighshire: 4 Labour hold, with batman, sanders and Tony Otim Conservative gain, and kevinf Independent (Flynn) gain.

Croft, East Lindsey: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 5% (kevinf) to 46% (batman).

Whickham North, Gateshead: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 25% (sanders) to 43% (kevinf).

Talybolion, Isle of Anglesey: 7 Plaid Cymru hold, with majorities ranging from 2% (iainbhx) to 15% (kevinf). Sanders Independent (Hughes) win with 7% majority.

Hemlington, Middlesbrough: 7 Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 7% (Right Leaning) to 27% (andrewp). Sanders Independent (Cooper) win with 25% majority.

Town, Monmouthshire: 6 Conservative gain from Conservative, with andrewp and batman Labour hold.

Barton and Becton, New Forest: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 4% (sanders) to 22% (kevinf).

Histon and Impington, South Cambridgeshire: 7 Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 4.4% (Tony Otim) to 23% (Robert Waller). Iainbhx Independent (Stonham) win with 2% majority.

Middleforth, South Ribble: 7 Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 3% (Right Leaning) to 15% (batman). Sanders Conservative gain with 6% majority.

Old Dean, Surrey Heath: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (iainbhx) to 23% (Right Leaning).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d91kHS5Pk4EWWQSSPM1R0zcNqitBB6uhwipVxTPqjoA/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Congratulations again to Tony Otim for another weekly win and maintaining and strengthening the monthly lead, and to andrewp, clearly second in both categories.
With these sample sizes the consistency of the rank order clearly means something.
Also thanks again to robbienicoll again for such a Herculean effort.

[batman]

CHARNWOOD, Sileby & Seagrave : Green 42 C 39 Lab 8 RefUK 6 LD 5

HAMPSHIRE, Bishop's Waltham : LD 44 C 43 Green 9 Lab 4

ROCHDALE, N.Middleton : Middleton Ind 46 Lab 37 C 14 LD 3

SALFORD, Eccles : Lab 51 C 31 Green 11 TUSC 4 LD 3

STOCKPORT, Bramhall S. & Woodhall : C 41 LD 39 Green 8 Lab 7 RefUK 5

WESTMORLAND & FURNESS, Kirkby Stephen & Tebay : LD 53 C 47

WOLVERHAMPTON, Bilston N. : Lab 43 C 35 Green 11 RefUK 7 LD 4

[sanders]

Charnwood, Silelby & Seagrave - GRN 40 CON 35 RFM 15 LAB 5 LD 5

Hampshire, Bishop's Waltham: CON 60 LD 30 GRN 5 LAB 5

Rochdale, North Middleton: MIND 40 LAB 30 CON 15 LD 15

Salford, Eccles: LAB 40 CON 26 GRN 25 TUSC 5 LD 4

Stockport, Bramhall S. & Woodford: LD 47 CON 23 GRN 10 LAB 10 RFM 10

Westmorland & Furness, Kirkby Stephen & Tebay: LD 63 CON 37

Wolverhampton, Bilston North: LAB 50 RFM 23 CON 17 GRN 5 LD 5

[kevinf]

Charnwood
Green 43, Con 21, Ref 16, Lab 10, LD 10
Hampshire
LD 41, Con 40, Green 15, Lab 4
Rochdale
Mid Ind 44, Lab 39, LD 10, Con 7
Salford
Lab 42, Con 28, Green 20, LD 6, Tusc 4
Stockport
LD 53, Con 20, Ref 15, Green 8, Lab 4
West Moreland
LD 61, Con 39
Wolverhampton
Lab 44, Ref 20, Con 19, LD 9, Green 8

[Tony Otim]

Charnwood: Grn 44.5; Con 24.6; Ref 15.4; Lab 11.8; LD 3.7
Hampshire: LD 49.7; Con 36.9; Grn 11.3; Lab 2.1
Rochdale: Midd Ind 47.1; Lab 39.5; Con 11.1; LD 2.3
Salford: Lab 51.4; Con 22.3; Grn 16.5; TUSC 5.8; LD 4.0
Stockport: Con 40.9; LD 39.7; Ref 8.6; Grn 6.0; Lab 4.8
Westmorland & Furness: LD 53.7; Con 46.3
Wolverhampton: Lab 47.8; Ref 23.1; Con 19.8; LD 5.7; Grn 3.6

[andrewp]

Charnwood. Green 46 Con 28 REFUK 14 Lab 8 LD 4
Hampshire, LD 48 Con 35 Green 13 Lab 4
Rochdale. MIP 47 Lab 40 Con 9 LD 4
Salford. Lab 52 Con 18 LD 13 Green 13 TUSC 4
Stockport, Con 42 LD 39 RefUK 8 Green 6 Lab 5
Westmorland and Furness LD 67 Con 33
Wolverhampton. Lab 50 ReFUK 24 Con 19 Green 4 LD 3

[Robert Waller]

Charnwood. Green 44 Con 30 REFUK 12 Lab 10 LD 4

Hampshire, LD 42 Con 38 Green 14 Lab 6

Rochdale. MIP 44 Lab 42 Con 10 LD 4

Salford. Lab 55 Con 21 LD 10 Green 10 TUSC 4

Stockport, Con 35 LD 48 RefUK 8 Green 4 Lab 5

Westmorland and Furness LD 61 Con 39

Wolverhampton. Lab 48 ReFUK 22 Con 24 Green 3 LD 3

[rightleaning]

Charnwood, Silelby & Seagrave - Gn 46, C 30, Rfm 12, Lab 9 LD 3
Hampshire, Bishop's Waltham: C 51, LD 38, Gn 7 Lab 4
Rochdale, North Middleton: MIND 46, Lab 41, C 10, LD 3
Salford, Eccles: Lab 50, Gn 24, C 21, LD 3, TUSC 2
Stockport, Bramhall S. & Woodford: LD 51, C 23, Gn 14, Lab 7, Rfm 5
Westmorland & Furness, Kirkby Stephen & Tebay: LD 56, C 44
Wolverhampton, Bilston North: Lab 48, C 22, RFM 22, GRN 6, LD 2

[iainbhx]

Charnwood DC, Silelby & Seagrave - Grn 41 Con 29 Rfm 18 Lab 8 LDm 4
Hampshire CC, Bishop's Waltham: LDm 44 Con 42 Grn 11 Lab 3
Rochdale MBC, North Middleton: Ind 50 Lab 33 Con 12 LDm 5
Salford MBC, Eccles: Lab 42 Grn 26 Con 24 TUSC 5 LDm 3
Stockport MBC, Bramhall S. & Woodford: Con 42 LDm 38, Grn 9 Lab 6 Rfm 5
Westmorland & Furness UA, Kirkby Stephen & Tebay: LDm 58 Con 42
Wolverhampton MBC, Bilston North: Lab 47 Rfm 25 Con 18 Grn 8 LDm 2

[robbienicoll]

8 entries to close the month, all on time and correct.

Sileby and Seagrave, Charnwood: 100% Green hold, with majorities ranging from 3% (batman) to 22% (kevinf).

Bishops Waltham, Hampshire: 6 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with Right Leaning and sanders Conservative hold.

North Middleton, Rochdale: 100% Middleton Independent Party hold, with majorities ranging from 2% (Robert Waller) to 17% (iainbhx).

Eccles, Salford: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 14% (kevinf and sanders) to 34% (andrewp and Robert Waller).

Bramhall South and Woodhall, Stockport: 4 Liberal Democrat hold and 4 Conservative gain.

Kirkby Stephen and Tebay, Westmorland and Furness: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 6% (batman) to 34% (andrewp).

Bilston North, Wolverhampton: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 8% (batman) to 27% (sanders).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FH6B05W2-czVIpLfi8C0IJsbExMLtGi_kcowAFFh9Xs/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Although the final contest of this marathon month (Hampshire, Bishop's Waltham) has not yet been added in by robbienicoll, I believe the figures will serve only to reinforce the clear findings of the whole: Tony Otim and andrewp outstandingly the most accurate.
Many congratulations to both - with this high number of contests there can be no suggestion of good fortune or anything but skill and effort.
Also well done to all who competed, and completed, and of course to robbienicoll for organising and tabulating.

I hope that a less crowded November will encourage some returning and/or new entrants.

I have updated the Form Guide table.