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Post by willpower3 on Sept 29, 2024 9:47:39 GMT
Not an absurd idea, as such referendums have been held in various other jurisdictions and referendums in the UK were pretty fashionable around the time when this issue was being widely debated and legislation was being voted on and implemented regarding it.
Obviously it would have almost certainly been in favour of the pro-gay marriage side, but I wonder what impact the inevitably high anti-gay marriage votes in parts of Birmingham, London, Bradford, Leicester etc would have had on the left's general blind eye towards the extent of Islamic social conservatism.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Sept 29, 2024 19:06:24 GMT
When Australia had a referendum on same-sex marriage (advisory, not definitive) I was expecting Sydney to be the place which voted most heavily "Yes", just because of Sydney's reputation as a liberal city with its Mardi Gras Pride and so on.
I was surprised that some of the western suburbs of Sydney were among the few places which voted "No", and they turned out to be areas with large immigrant populations from Catholic and Muslim countries.
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dundas
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Post by dundas on Sept 30, 2024 11:13:04 GMT
UKIP would have had a higher vote percentage in 2015 on the back of this, as OP states the referendum is likely to have been won by the government. But likely impact of it in the areas suggested actually gives Conservatives a few more seats if there is any change at all.
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hengog
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Post by hengog on Sept 30, 2024 11:40:13 GMT
I’m not a great fan of referendums . This is an interesting case in point. The argument for might be to somehow provide greater authority for implementing a social change which many might resent. Would it? I would have voted against. But I recognise that the world has changed and I must accept it too. We saw in the Brexit vote how people who before the vote itself saw both sides of the argument were pushed further apart afterwards , some embittered by the result going against them , others embittered by the reaction of the losers to those who had voted the other way.
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birkinabe
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Post by birkinabe on Sept 30, 2024 12:34:09 GMT
Obviously it would have almost certainly been in favour of the pro-gay marriage side, but I wonder what impact the inevitably high anti-gay marriage votes in parts of Birmingham, London, Bradford, Leicester etc would have had on the left's general blind eye towards the extent of Islamic social conservatism.
Probably not much, in part because, aside from anything else, at this point a few other areas where this wasn't a factor would have likely also voted against, albeit not to the same extent (and this is without even considering what the results in Northern Ireland would have looked like).
Case in point here is that, while I could be wrong, the results of the postal survey in Australia (where you see this pattern with parts of provincial QLD also voting against, though never by the margins you see in parts of western Sydney) don't seem to have had any impact on this there.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Sept 30, 2024 13:31:17 GMT
Obviously it would have almost certainly been in favour of the pro-gay marriage side, but I wonder what impact the inevitably high anti-gay marriage votes in parts of Birmingham, London, Bradford, Leicester etc would have had on the left's general blind eye towards the extent of Islamic social conservatism.
Probably not much, in part because, aside from anything else, at this point a few other areas where this wasn't a factor would have likely also voted against, albeit not to the same extent (and this is without even considering what the results in Northern Ireland would have looked like).
Case in point here is that, while I could be wrong, the results of the postal survey in Australia (where you see this pattern with parts of provincial QLD also voting against, though never by the margins you see in parts of western Sydney) don't seem to have had any impact on this there.
It was a devolved decision to Scotland and Northern Ireland so a referendum could only really have covered England and Wales, unless there was an overall agreement reached and that would have been difficult to get from NI at least |
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Sept 30, 2024 23:49:28 GMT
I suspect the turnout in such a referendum would have been rather low, at least if not combined with another election. It's one of those issues where a tiny percentage of people have strong feelings for or against, but most people just don't really care one way or another.
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Post by greenchristian on Oct 1, 2024 8:27:36 GMT
I suspect the turnout in such a referendum would have been rather low, at least if not combined with another election. It's one of those issues where a tiny percentage of people have strong feelings for or against, but most people just don't really care one way or another. The same was also true of EU membership as recently as 2015. Turnout would likely depend on whether the referendum became a proxy vote on other issues that people who don't care about the issue of same-sex marriage do actually care about. |
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 1, 2024 12:41:28 GMT
On the main issue, I would be on the YES side of the argument, and believe that YES would win (by around 5%) with the biggest YES votes being in London and university towns, the biggest NO votes being in the Western Isles and Reform UK areas.
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on Oct 1, 2024 13:17:11 GMT
On the main issue, I would be on the YES side of the argument, and believe that YES would win (by around 5%) with the biggest YES votes being in London and university towns, the biggest NO votes being in the Western Isles and Reform UK areas. The biggest No vote would likely be in London |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2024 4:42:23 GMT
On the main issue, I would be on the YES side of the argument, and believe that YES would win (by around 5%) with the biggest YES votes being in London and university towns, the biggest NO votes being in the Western Isles and Reform UK areas. The biggest No vote would likely be in London Yes: biggest no votes - Newham, Luton? Slough, Tower Hamlets, Redbridge, Barking and Dagenham? |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 2, 2024 6:40:29 GMT
It would have passed though the level of misinformation would have been oft the scale. AV and Remain would have won in a clean fight. Both defeated by biased right wing media and Russian money.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Oct 2, 2024 6:42:39 GMT
It would have passed though the level of misinformation would have been oft the scale. AV and Remain would have won in a clean fight. Both defeated by biased right wing media and Russian money. That's what Russia want you to think, that they matter any more. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 2, 2024 10:51:52 GMT
Swamping the online sphere with disinformation crap is arguably one of the few things they are still really good at.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 2, 2024 11:51:28 GMT
It would have passed though the level of misinformation would have been oft the scale. AV and Remain would have won in a clean fight. Both defeated by biased right wing media and Russian money. LOL x 10,000,000! |
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Jack
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Post by Jack on Oct 2, 2024 11:58:09 GMT
It would have passed though the level of misinformation would have been oft the scale. AV and Remain would have won in a clean fight. Both defeated by biased right wing media and Russian money. I feel like I've logged into Twitter. |
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Post by greenchristian on Oct 2, 2024 13:18:49 GMT
It would have passed though the level of misinformation would have been oft the scale. AV and Remain would have won in a clean fight. Both defeated by biased right wing media and Russian money. AV lost because the pro AV campaign was completely, totally, and utterly useless. Misinformation was completely irrelevant because the campaign seems to have been run by people who thought that everyone already thought that FPTP was the worst system ever (and so that they didn't need to be convinced), and who had absolutely no idea at all how to run an issue-based campaign. Remain lost because of several different factors. Misinformation was only one of those. |
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Post by islington on Oct 2, 2024 13:35:07 GMT
It would have passed though the level of misinformation would have been oft the scale. AV and Remain would have won in a clean fight. Both defeated by biased right wing media and Russian money. AV lost because the pro AV campaign was completely, totally, and utterly useless. Misinformation was completely irrelevant because the campaign seems to have been run by people who thought that everyone already thought that FPTP was the worst system ever (and so that they didn't need to be convinced), and who had absolutely no idea at all how to run an issue-based campaign. I agree completely. It was so bad, your post just prompted me to do a quick search to see whether Ryan Coetzee (sp?) was involved. But apparently not. |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Oct 2, 2024 13:40:14 GMT
It would have passed though the level of misinformation would have been oft the scale. AV and Remain would have won in a clean fight. Both defeated by biased right wing media and Russian money. LOL x 10,000,000! a kinder response than i nearly gave! |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Oct 2, 2024 14:14:34 GMT
It would have passed though the level of misinformation would have been oft the scale. AV and Remain would have won in a clean fight. Both defeated by biased right wing media and Russian money. The Remain campaign won the referendum for Leave, not right-wing media and Russia. |
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