Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 4, 2024 14:43:44 GMT
Obviously with a poster living in the Dundee ward Scotland got the attention (and Chagos islands, obvs) but this looks like really unusual news. This should be a seat with at least a functioning Tory association to pick up on a Labour slump and I've not heard of Blackpool as being a Reform or old UKIP strong point. Any idea on what's going on here? A few possible factors were a) REfUK were 2nd in the GE here so had some momentum and might have done some work to build on then , b) Blackpool would share some of the deprived seaside town characteristics of eg Clacton and Great Yarmouth, c) a previous Con councillor for the ward was the Indy so it’s a fair bet his votes came disproportionately from the Cons and d) the REFUK winner had previously stood as an Independent so wasn’t perhaps as new to local politics as some of their people and seemed to have quite a reasonable social media presence. There is another Blackpool by-election next month, albeit a Tory seat in North Blackpool this time, but might provide some idea if this is just a good candidate or if it is somewhere Reform have got some decent local organisation going. |
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Post by batman on Oct 4, 2024 14:50:40 GMT
In retrospect, the Marton result shouldn’t really come as that huge a shock. Blackpool has been thought to have Reform potential for while and as stated they put in quite a lot of work in the recent parliamentary by-election, and presumably after getting second place there in the general election too. Blackpool is a town with high levels of deprivation and a strong anti-Labour vote in many wards, although a few are quite strong Labour. However unlike Great Yarmouth it doesn’t have much of a reputation as a town with a strong Eastern European population. The Tories have generally tended to be weaker in the South than the North constituency though only slightly if you disregard the non-Blackpool part of the latter; the Tories’ strongest Blackpool wards are Bispham and Norbreck which are less deprived seafront wards than the ones further south. We didn’t know really that Reform were working the ward in the by-election, but it does make sense. The result will be concerning to both main parties, perhaps equally.
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Post by andrewteale on Oct 4, 2024 14:57:24 GMT
My simulation of the Dundee votes as an ordinary election suggests no seat changes from 2022. Lochee: 2SNP/2Lab  Strathmartine: 2SNP/LD/Lab  |
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Post by sanders on Oct 4, 2024 15:18:19 GMT
In retrospect, the Marton result shouldn’t really come as that huge a shock. Blackpool has been thought to have Reform potential for while and as stated they put in quite a lot of work in the recent parliamentary by-election, and presumably after getting second place there in the general election too. Blackpool is a town with high levels of deprivation and a strong anti-Labour vote in many wards, although a few are quite strong Labour. However unlike Great Yarmouth it doesn’t have much of a reputation as a town with a strong Eastern European population. The Tories have generally tended to be weaker in the South than the North constituency though only slightly if you disregard the non-Blackpool part of the latter; the Tories’ strongest Blackpool wards are Bispham and Norbreck which are less deprived seafront wards than the ones further south. We didn’t know really that Reform were working the ward in the by-election, but it does make sense. The result will be concerning to both main parties, perhaps equally. Reform can damage Labour, like UKIP. Labour are in government now, though. It's interesting where it happened though. Not in Hartlepool but in Blackpool. You'd have thought Hartlepool first, surely. Maybe Labour took them more seriously. I guess Labour have longer incumbency. Plus Hartlepool is in Tees Valley. That may help Tories hold up. Hence why they gained Longbeck recently. It's an interesting divergence up north. Tories doing better in north east. Reform making inroads in north west. We have an interesting fight soon. Can Reform win in Clay Cross? It seems a place with potential. I mean potential for Reform, obviously. Excellent write up here btw, batman . |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 4, 2024 17:59:05 GMT
In retrospect, the Marton result shouldn’t really come as that huge a shock. Blackpool has been thought to have Reform potential for while and as stated they put in quite a lot of work in the recent parliamentary by-election, and presumably after getting second place there in the general election too. Blackpool is a town with high levels of deprivation and a strong anti-Labour vote in many wards, although a few are quite strong Labour. However unlike Great Yarmouth it doesn’t have much of a reputation as a town with a strong Eastern European population. The Tories have generally tended to be weaker in the South than the North constituency though only slightly if you disregard the non-Blackpool part of the latter; the Tories’ strongest Blackpool wards are Bispham and Norbreck which are less deprived seafront wards than the ones further south. We didn’t know really that Reform were working the ward in the by-election, but it does make sense. The result will be concerning to both main parties, perhaps equally. Reform can damage Labour, like UKIP. Labour are in government now, though. It's interesting where it happened though. Not in Hartlepool but in Blackpool. You'd have thought Hartlepool first, surely. Maybe Labour took them more seriously. I guess Labour have longer incumbency. Plus Hartlepool is in Tees Valley. That may help Tories hold up. Hence why they gained Longbeck recently. It's an interesting divergence up north. Tories doing better in north east. Reform making inroads in north west. We have an interesting fight soon. Can Reform win in Clay Cross? It seems a place with potential. I mean potential for Reform, obviously. Excellent write up here btw, batman . If you're talking about the by-election next week in Clay Cross North then the definite answer is no, Reform can't win as they don't have a candidate. |
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Post by sanders on Oct 4, 2024 18:12:33 GMT
Reform can damage Labour, like UKIP. Labour are in government now, though. It's interesting where it happened though. Not in Hartlepool but in Blackpool. You'd have thought Hartlepool first, surely. Maybe Labour took them more seriously. I guess Labour have longer incumbency. Plus Hartlepool is in Tees Valley. That may help Tories hold up. Hence why they gained Longbeck recently. It's an interesting divergence up north. Tories doing better in north east. Reform making inroads in north west. We have an interesting fight soon. Can Reform win in Clay Cross? It seems a place with potential. I mean potential for Reform, obviously. Excellent write up here btw, batman . If you're talking about the by-election next week in Clay Cross North then the definite answer is no, Reform can't win as they don't have a candidate. One day I will do research. What are they playing at lol? UKIP used to do well there. One of their best Derbyshire areas. Where’s the North-East Derbyshire Reform Party? I was obsessed with that sear. 2024 majority was identical to 2015. The trends are very interesting there. |
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Post by jakegb on Oct 4, 2024 18:35:59 GMT
In retrospect, the Marton result shouldn’t really come as that huge a shock. Blackpool has been thought to have Reform potential for while and as stated they put in quite a lot of work in the recent parliamentary by-election, and presumably after getting second place there in the general election too. Blackpool is a town with high levels of deprivation and a strong anti-Labour vote in many wards, although a few are quite strong Labour. However unlike Great Yarmouth it doesn’t have much of a reputation as a town with a strong Eastern European population. The Tories have generally tended to be weaker in the South than the North constituency though only slightly if you disregard the non-Blackpool part of the latter; the Tories’ strongest Blackpool wards are Bispham and Norbreck which are less deprived seafront wards than the ones further south. We didn’t know really that Reform were working the ward in the by-election, but it does make sense. The result will be concerning to both main parties, perhaps equally. Reform can damage Labour, like UKIP. Labour are in government now, though. It's interesting where it happened though. Not in Hartlepool but in Blackpool. You'd have thought Hartlepool first, surely. Maybe Labour took them more seriously. I guess Labour have longer incumbency. Plus Hartlepool is in Tees Valley. That may help Tories hold up. Hence why they gained Longbeck recently. It's an interesting divergence up north. Tories doing better in north east. Reform making inroads in north west. We have an interesting fight soon. Can Reform win in Clay Cross? It seems a place with potential. I mean potential for Reform, obviously. Excellent write up here btw, batman . I'd concur that Houchen is likely to have a stabilising effect on Tory support in the NE; and results in Darlington and Redcar support this to some degree (even though they were lost to Labour at the last GE, just by relatively small margins). In Blackpool, I imagine the Tories' recovery will be - to some degree - hampered by Scott Benton's antics earlier in the year. A concerning result for them, no doubt. Yes much of the public are angry with Labour; but they have yet to overlook the Tories' failings (certainly nationally, yet also locally). |
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Post by sanders on Oct 4, 2024 19:02:52 GMT
Reform can damage Labour, like UKIP. Labour are in government now, though. It's interesting where it happened though. Not in Hartlepool but in Blackpool. You'd have thought Hartlepool first, surely. Maybe Labour took them more seriously. I guess Labour have longer incumbency. Plus Hartlepool is in Tees Valley. That may help Tories hold up. Hence why they gained Longbeck recently. It's an interesting divergence up north. Tories doing better in north east. Reform making inroads in north west. We have an interesting fight soon. Can Reform win in Clay Cross? It seems a place with potential. I mean potential for Reform, obviously. Excellent write up here btw, batman . I'd concur that Houchen is likely to have a stabilising effect on Tory support in the NE; and results in Darlington and Redcar support this to some degree (even though they were lost to Labour at the last GE, just by relatively small margins). In Blackpool, I imagine the Tories' recovery will be - to some degree - hampered by Scott Benton's antics earlier in the year. A concerning result for them, no doubt. Yes much of the public are angry with Labour; but they have yet to overlook the Tories' failings (certainly nationally, yet also locally). Labour still seen as the establishment. Houchen is an electoral juggernaut there. The last Tory metro mayor standing. Who’d have believed that in 2017? |
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Post by jakegb on Oct 4, 2024 20:03:43 GMT
I'd concur that Houchen is likely to have a stabilising effect on Tory support in the NE; and results in Darlington and Redcar support this to some degree (even though they were lost to Labour at the last GE, just by relatively small margins). In Blackpool, I imagine the Tories' recovery will be - to some degree - hampered by Scott Benton's antics earlier in the year. A concerning result for them, no doubt. Yes much of the public are angry with Labour; but they have yet to overlook the Tories' failings (certainly nationally, yet also locally). Labour still seen as the establishment. Houchen is an electoral juggernaut there. The last Tory metro mayor standing. Who’d have believed that in 2017? Certainly not me. A sign of how much the respective voter bases have changed. Next time around - I would anticipate W Midlands, E Midlands, Peterborough and N Cambridgeshire and N Yorkshire going Tory. W England being less certain, due to the part played by the Greens and the Lib Dems. Some of the big rock-solid Labour mayoralties (Manchester, Liverpool etc.) could also become more competitive, especially against the Greens. |
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Post by sanders on Oct 5, 2024 4:46:52 GMT
Labour still seen as the establishment. Houchen is an electoral juggernaut there. The last Tory metro mayor standing. Who’d have believed that in 2017? Certainly not me. A sign of how much the respective voter bases have changed. Next time around - I would anticipate W Midlands, E Midlands, Peterborough and N Cambridgeshire and N Yorkshire going Tory. W England being less certain, due to the part played by the Greens and the Lib Dems. Some of the big rock-solid Labour mayoralties (Manchester, Liverpool etc.) could also become more competitive, especially against the Greens. Could be four or five-way contests. Since we don't have FPTP now. Lib Dems could win Cambs mayoralty. West of England probably Greens' best. They need to target one, really. As for 2025, who really knows? Reform might give Doncaster a go. It's an area with Reform potential. UKIP did pretty well there previously. West of England is very interesting. Greens could carry Bristol, of course. Lib Dems may win other areas. Tories could come through the middle. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 5, 2024 11:24:24 GMT
A lot of the mayoral contests will be next up in 2028. By that time we could be close to another GE and Labour popularity *might* have recovered from any mid term travails.
Houchen is undoubtedly very well liked locally and he helps his party in other elections there. The question is maybe whether that is replicable under any other Tory candidate.
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Post by sanders on Oct 5, 2024 11:47:22 GMT
A lot of the mayoral contests will be next up in 2028. By that time we could be close to another GE and Labour popularity *might* have recovered from any mid term travails. Houchen is undoubtedly very well liked locally and he helps his party in other elections there. The question is maybe whether that is replicable under any other Tory candidate. Houchen isn’t term-limited and is young. I doubt he runs for Westminster. I don’t see him losing really. The Tories’ north east North Star. Who runs in the West Midlands? There’s an issue with candidate quality. Who will the Tory party run? Lots of defeated MPs, of course. Still, big shoes to fill, ultimately. Lots of possible people to stand. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 5, 2024 11:53:50 GMT
You should probably take whatever equivalent of beta blockers exist for political tachycardia.
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Post by sanders on Oct 5, 2024 12:35:14 GMT
You should probably take whatever equivalent of beta blockers exist for political tachycardia. My dad actually had a tachycardia. He almost died back in 2004. Just leave it out, will you? Stick to bizzare posts about magazines. Also, you know, just quote people. I know you're online often enough. Surely you know how to quote. Again, I don't get this hostility. I like and respect your contributions. Is it so being civil, buddy? I already take beta blockers (propranolol). So way ahead of you there. It's like my family raising alarms. They've been blaring for years already. Vote UK's my only outlet anyway. Autistic burnout is less acute here. No harm in discussing 2028 elections. It is a politics forum, y'know. |
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Post by batman on Oct 5, 2024 15:00:34 GMT
Hold on. You are a member of a political party. You also currently have a platform as a candidate for a high-profile post. You have other outlets than this forum.
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Post by sanders on Oct 5, 2024 15:14:50 GMT
Hold on. You are a member of a political party. You also currently have a platform as a candidate for a high-profile post. You have other outlets than this forum. I’m free to post on here too. This is separate from that campaign. I’m not official a candidate yet. |
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Post by batman on Oct 5, 2024 16:05:26 GMT
I'm not saying you are not free to post here. i.e., you are indeed free to post here. There are those however who would not mind if it were somewhat less frequent. No doubt there are those who say that about me and also other posters.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135 
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Post by Foggy on Oct 5, 2024 17:49:46 GMT
Certainly not me. A sign of how much the respective voter bases have changed. Next time around - I would anticipate W Midlands, E Midlands, Peterborough and N Cambridgeshire and N Yorkshire going Tory. W England being less certain, due to the part played by the Greens and the Lib Dems. Some of the big rock-solid Labour mayoralties (Manchester, Liverpool etc.) could also become more competitive, especially against the Greens. Reform might give Doncaster a go. It's an area with Reform potential. UKIP did pretty well there previously. The English Democrats once held the elected mayoralty there. |
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Post by batman on Oct 5, 2024 17:59:59 GMT
yes, it was Sir Philip Davies's father Peter. Peter later left the English Democrats, complaining about right-wing extremist infiltration of them.
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Post by tonyhil on Oct 5, 2024 18:33:28 GMT
If you read 'Private Eye' Houchen is a prime candidate to crash and burn at any point.
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