Local Council By-elections 3rd October 2024

[andrewp]

Blackpool Marton

RefUK 462
Lab 334
Con 254
Ind 84
LD 33
Green 25

[iain]

Oct 3, 2024 22:48:11 GMT evergreenadam said:

Oct 3, 2024 22:41:38 GMT iain said:

Over the Lib Dems rather than Labour apparently.

Anyone know why the Lib Dems do well in this ward?

Hard work

[certain]

Oct 3, 2024 22:43:48 GMT andrewp said:

Dundee, Strathmartine first preferences

SNP 1188
LD 912
Lab 911
Con 143
Green 121
TUSC 116

SNP elected at stage 6

So I take it that SNP was actually elected by 32 votes over lib Dem at stage 5.

[Andrew_S]

Oct 3, 2024 22:49:43 GMT andrewp said:

Blackpool Marton

RefUK 462
Lab 334
Con 254
Ind 84
LD 33
Green 25

RefUK 38.76%
Lab 28.02%
Con 21.31%
Ind 7.05%
LD 2.77%
Green 2.10%


Changes (using top vote)

RefUK +29.35%
Lab -23.04%
Con -18.21%

Swing Lab to RefUK 26.19%

[Forfarshire Conservative]

SNP gain Lochee

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Bit embarrassing 😬

[sanders]

Oct 3, 2024 22:23:17 GMT andrewp said:

Scotforth East percentages

Green 57.8% (+22.7)
Lab  22.4% (-18.2)
Con 13.7% (-4.8)
LD 6.1% (+0.3)

Excellent stuff - a 20% swing there. The only prediction I got right. Margin was way off though, sadly. 

Credit where credit's die re: Blackpool. An objectively solid Reform gain there. They seem to be challenging Labour. It has taken them a while. 

Dundee results are interesting too, obviously. Labour haven't polled ahead for years. 2007 last time they 'won' wards. Lib Dem performance is very respectable. 

[ilerda]

Oct 3, 2024 15:21:34 GMT batman said:

That’s fine. You do realise that ceding the Chagos islands to Mauritius was the initiative of the previous Conservative governments which has now been concluded by the Labour government? Apparently Truss was close to a deal in her brief period as PM.

On a point of technicality which may not suit your political point I’m afraid, there is a very significant difference between opening negotiations and agreeing a final deal. It’s often sensible to open negotiations to find out what the other side is willing to concede, but when that proves to be unacceptable one should then walk away without agreement. 

It was also never previously government policy to just “cede the Chagos Islands to Mauritius”. 

[robert1]

The then Marton Ward in 2014 result was Lab 42.2, Con 33.7, UKIP 24.1

[sanders]

We need to do something, IMO. Encourage far more holidays to Blackpool. Make foreign travel more eepxnesive? Frequent flier levies and the like. Say it's unpatriotic to holiday abroad. A Brexit benefit could be had. Don't worry about visas to Europe. Holidaying there is a lifestyle choice. And one government could surely discourage. Believe in Britain and holiday here. This is a serious, considered policy! 

[ilerda]

Oct 4, 2024 6:47:44 GMT sanders said:

We need to do something, IMO. Encourage far more holidays to Blackpool. Make foreign travel more eepxnesive? Frequent flier levies and the like. Say it's unpatriotic to holiday abroad. A Brexit benefit could be had. Don't worry about visas to Europe. Holidaying there is a lifestyle choice. And one government could surely discourage. Believe in Britain and holiday here. This is a serious, considered policy! 

Without quite such a sarcastic tone, Margate shows it can be done…

[sanders]

Oct 4, 2024 6:55:29 GMT ilerda said:

Oct 4, 2024 6:47:44 GMT sanders said:

We need to do something, IMO. Encourage far more holidays to Blackpool. Make foreign travel more eepxnesive? Frequent flier levies and the like. Say it's unpatriotic to holiday abroad. A Brexit benefit could be had. Don't worry about visas to Europe. Holidaying there is a lifestyle choice. And one government could surely discourage. Believe in Britain and holiday here. This is a serious, considered policy! 

Without quite such a sarcastic tone, Margate shows it can be done…

It's the definition of levelling up. I admired Andy Street for that. He was still committed to it. We need to rejuvenate coastal towns. Blackpool shouldn't have any deprivation, really. It's still a beautiful place, honestly. 

[andrewp]

Lochee First preference numbers

SNP 1203
Lab 1148
Con 219
Alba 178
Green 176
LD 156
WP 143

[michaelarden]

SNP proving to be a bit more transfer friendly in Dundee than in the Highlands. They really shouldn't have won with those first preference leads. (I think).

[batman]

As predicted a bad night for Labour though England much worse than Scotland. But actually a pretty bad one for the Tories too following a couple of much better ones, and in their conference week to boot. Reform and Greens both enjoying triumphs over and above all predictions. Also a better result for Alba than usual, albeit from a very low base.

[batman]

Oct 4, 2024 7:40:44 GMT michaelarden said:

SNP proving to be a bit more transfer friendly in Dundee than in the Highlands. They really shouldn't have won with those first preference leads. (I think).

perhaps the local council is acknowledged to be doing a good job. I guess Forfarshire Conservative might have a handle on that more than the rest of us

[sanders]

Reform and Greens like discount supermarkets. The challengers to the big players. Reform’s result more impressive than Greens’. They don’t really win local by-elections. How many have they won now?

[andrewp]

An update on the statistics for the by elections held in this local electoral year, following the May 2024 local elections.

Following the 4 contests held on the 3rd October, there have now been 133 ordinary by elections for 135 seats since 2nd May 2024.

The Conservatives have defended 30- Held 20 and lost 10- 6 to Labour, 1 to the Lib Dems, 1 to RefUK and 2 to Independents (retention rate 67%) and have gained 12

Labour have defended 74- held 58 and lost 16- 7 to the Conservatives, 4 to the Greens, 2 to the Lib Dems, 2 to the SNP and 1 to RefUK ( retention rate 78%) and have gained 10

The Lib Dems have defended 18- held 12 and lost 6 - 2 each to Labour and the Conservatives and 1 each to the SNP and an Independent ( retention rate 67%) and have gained 3

The Greens have defended 3, held 2 and lost 1 to the Conservatives, ( retention rate 67%) and have gained 4

RefUK have gained 2 seats

SNP have defended 1, held 1 ( retention rate 100%) and have gained 3 seats

There have been 9 by elections for a seat previously won by an Independent, 5 were won by another Independent, 2 were gained by the Conservatives and 2 by Labour, and an Independent has gained 3 seats

Overall totals and net changes since May

Con 32 (+2)
Lab 68 (-6)
LD 15 (-3)
Green 6 (+3)
Ind 8 (-1)
RefUK 2 (+2)
SNP 4 (+3)

[Tony Otim]

Oct 4, 2024 7:40:44 GMT michaelarden said:

SNP proving to be a bit more transfer friendly in Dundee than in the Highlands. They really shouldn't have won with those first preference leads. (I think).

Lochee's not that surprising given the first prefs. There's almost as many Alba and Green voters as Tory and LD and they tend to break a bit stronger for SNP than the Con Ld do for Lab. WP transfers are a bit of an unknown quantity but I could imagine being anti-Labour, so given that, not really outside what's been seen elsewhere.

Strathmartine it's the Lib Dems who I would have expected to be more transfer friendly and attracted a large wedge of Labour transfers. Will be interesting to see full figures.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 4, 2024 7:55:07 GMT sanders said:

Reform and Greens like discount supermarkets. The challengers to the big players. Reform’s result more impressive than Greens’. They don’t really win local by-elections. How many have they won now?

This is the second by-election and only 4th cllr outside of Derby Reform won, IIRC. It's an especially good result given that there were 3 credible options on the right (including the indy ex-cllr).