andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 4, 2024 8:07:22 GMT
Reform and Greens like discount supermarkets. The challengers to the big players. Reform’s result more impressive than Greens’. They don’t really win local by-elections. How many have they won now? This is the second by-election and only 4th cllr outside of Derby Reform won, IIRC. It's an especially good result given that there were 3 credible options on the right (including the indy ex-cllr). I think that area is promising RefUK territory, but as you say having an ex Tory Independent in the mix shouldn’t have helped, but I wonder if the REFUK candidate having previously stood as an Indy elsewhere helped in terms of him having more idea of how to campaign than most in that party? His social media campaign looked pretty active and strong to me. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 4, 2024 9:27:10 GMT
As predicted a bad night for Labour though England much worse than Scotland. But actually a pretty bad one for the Tories too following a couple of much better ones, and in their conference week to boot. Reform and Greens both enjoying triumphs over and above all predictions. Also a better result for Alba than usual, albeit from a very low base. Its certainly a reminder that Tories can't expect to benefit by default from Labour becoming less popular. In one of the Dundee seats the LibDems beat Labour on first preferences by *one* vote btw. Just shows, again, that your vote can count! |
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jamesdoyle
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Post by jamesdoyle on Oct 4, 2024 9:38:41 GMT
GWBWI SNP +83 Grn +69 LDm +5 Con -21 Lab -95 batman pretty spot on a few posts up, I'd say |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 4, 2024 9:46:31 GMT
SNP were only a relatively few votes away from getting a much worse score (and Labour a better one)
I suppose you won't start doing Reform unless they start contesting more seats?
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batman
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Post by batman on Oct 4, 2024 9:49:59 GMT
As predicted a bad night for Labour though England much worse than Scotland. But actually a pretty bad one for the Tories too following a couple of much better ones, and in their conference week to boot. Reform and Greens both enjoying triumphs over and above all predictions. Also a better result for Alba than usual, albeit from a very low base. Its certainly a reminder that Tories can't expect to benefit by default from Labour becoming less popular. In one of the Dundee seats the LibDems beat Labour on first preferences by *one* vote btw. Just shows, again, that your vote can count! this is the reverse of what happened (although of course in a FPTP election) to me & my colleagues in Mortlake ward in 1998! We won the "block vote" by one vote, although that was symbolic & it would have made no difference as to who was elected had the reverse been the case. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Oct 4, 2024 9:51:10 GMT
GWBWI SNP +83 Grn +69 LDm +5 Con -21 Lab -95 batman pretty spot on a few posts up, I'd say I think this flatters the SNP a bit, although they obviously deserve a positive score. |
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Post by sanders on Oct 4, 2024 9:52:06 GMT
SNP were only a relatively few votes away from getting a much worse score (and Labour a better one) I suppose you won't start doing Reform unless they start contesting more seats? All the right votes … wrong order. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 4, 2024 9:55:53 GMT
GWBWI SNP +83 Grn +69 LDm +5 Con -21 Lab -95 batman pretty spot on a few posts up, I'd say I think this flatters the SNP a bit, although they obviously deserve a positive score. Gaining/holding seats always seems to get you a high score on this index, the reverse with losing them. Which is absolutely fair. |
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jamesdoyle
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Post by jamesdoyle on Oct 4, 2024 9:56:22 GMT
SNP were only a relatively few votes away from getting a much worse score (and Labour a better one) I suppose you won't start doing Reform unless they start contesting more seats? Yes, it's few and far between at the moment. Part of me hopes they don't get more consistent - not for party political reasdons, but because the rewriting of the spreadsheet will be a nightmare. |
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jamesdoyle
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Post by jamesdoyle on Oct 4, 2024 9:57:24 GMT
I think this flatters the SNP a bit, although they obviously deserve a positive score. Gaining/holding seats always seems to get you a high score on this index, the reverse with losing them. Which is absolutely fair. Yes, and more so when the leading party doesn't have a big majority on the council - so each seat carries more 'weight' |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 4, 2024 10:01:02 GMT
Not sure we've had vote shares from Strathmartine:
SNP 35.0 (-10.4)
LD 26.9 (+8.2)
Lab 26.7 (+4.1)
Con 4.2 (-1.7)
Grn 3.6 (+0.3)
TUSC 3.4 (+2.7)
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 4, 2024 10:03:15 GMT
I think this flatters the SNP a bit, although they obviously deserve a positive score. Gaining/holding seats always seems to get you a high score on this index, the reverse with losing them. Which is absolutely fair. I'm also not sure if James has managed to adjust his spreadsheet to properly account for voteshare changes in Scottish by-elections yet rather than treating the previous result the same as a multi-member FPTP, which in these cases would give the SNP a much smaller fall than they actually had... |
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jamesdoyle
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Post by jamesdoyle on Oct 4, 2024 10:07:02 GMT
Gaining/holding seats always seems to get you a high score on this index, the reverse with losing them. Which is absolutely fair. I'm also not sure if James has managed to adjust his spreadsheet to properly account for voteshare changes in Scottish by-elections yet rather than treating the previous result the same as a multi-member FPTP, which in these cases would give the SNP a much smaller fall than they actually had... Yes, I did take note a while back of the valid criticisms of how I did Scottish by elections, so this was changed, certainly for last year. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Oct 4, 2024 10:12:35 GMT
Not sure we've had vote shares from Strathmartine: SNP 35.0 (-10.4) LD 26.9 (+8.2) Lab 26.7 (+4.1) Con 4.2 (-1.7) Grn 3.6 (+0.3) TUSC 3.4 (+2.7) thanks. it would be interesting to know how the transfers went. Objectively this is quite a good result for Labour, but obviously better still for the LDs. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Oct 4, 2024 10:18:21 GMT
Not sure we've had vote shares from Strathmartine: SNP 35.0 (-10.4) LD 26.9 (+8.2) Lab 26.7 (+4.1) Con 4.2 (-1.7) Grn 3.6 (+0.3) TUSC 3.4 (+2.7) thanks. it would be interesting to know how the transfers went. Objectively this is quite a good result for Labour, but obviously better still for the LDs. Ballot Box Scotland has posted a plot of the transfers. Stage 3 (after TUSC and Green eliminations) looks like SNP 1260, LD 963, Lab 947, Con 150. Stage 4 was SNP 1274, LD 1016, Lab 972, so Labour were eliminated by 44 votes. Stage 5 was SNP 1426, LD 1394. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Oct 4, 2024 10:34:55 GMT
(In fact they could have gone straight to stage 4 as the Con, Green and TUSC votes combined were well below Labour’s. But that’s not what the software does.)
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 4, 2024 11:34:45 GMT
Strathmartine Transfers:
Stage 2:
TUSC elimnated:
Non-transferable 46
Ld 20 (932)
Lab 18 (929)
SNP 17 (1205)
Grn 13 *134)
Con 2 (145)
Stage 3:
Grn elimnated:
SNP 55 (1260)
LD 31 (963)
Non-transferrable 25 (71)
Lab 18 (947)
Con 5 (150)
Stage 4:
Con eliminated:
Non-transferrable 58 (129)
LD 53 (1016)
Lab 25 (972)
SNP 14 (1274)
Stage 5:
Lab eliminated:
Non-transferrable 442 (571)
LD 378 (1394)
SNP 152 (1426)
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Post by certain on Oct 4, 2024 11:58:25 GMT
(In fact they could have gone straight to stage 4 as the Con, Green and TUSC votes combined were well below Labour’s. But that’s not what the software does.) Another reason why it would be preferable for the software to treat single-seat contests as a special case. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 4, 2024 12:10:53 GMT
From Pippa Crear for the Guardian, re:Chagos
"🌏Chagos Island deal has descended into huge political blame game...
There were 13 rounds of talks with Mauritius, 11 of which took place under Tory govt who started process.
So far, Tom Tugendhat has blamed James Cleverly who has blamed Liz Truss who has blamed Boris Johnson who now says agreement is "completely wrong" to do.
Labour claims they had no choice but to sign deal because of legal mess left behind."
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Post by michaelarden on Oct 4, 2024 12:11:09 GMT
Strathmartine Transfers: Stage 2: TUSC elimnated: Non-transferable 46 Ld 20 (932) Lab 18 (929) SNP 17 (1205) Grn 13 *134) Con 2 (145) Stage 3: Grn elimnated: SNP 55 (1260) LD 31 (963) Non-transferrable 25 (71) Lab 18 (947) Con 5 (150) Stage 4: Con eliminated: Non-transferrable 58 (129) LD 53 (1016) Lab 25 (972) SNP 14 (1274) Stage 5: Lab eliminated: Non-transferrable 442 (571) LD 378 (1394) SNP 152 (1426) I'm loving the 2 TUSC to Tory transfers. |
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